It’s still not clear whether House Freedom Caucus chairman Bob Good has lost his GOP primary in Virginia, with mail-in and provisional ballots still to be counted and a potential recount looming. Still, the extremely tight margin underscores two truths and one lie about this year’s House Republican primaries. The truths? It’s really, really hard to beat an incumbent. And it really, really helps to have Trump on your side. The lie? That Trump’s endorsement is the end-all, be-all in a GOP primary. Good only trails state Sen. John McGuire by a few hundred votes, an eyebrow-raising result for those who thought Trump’s seal of approval would help McGuire sail to victory. But the fact that Good is so close to becoming the first member of Congress to lose to a primary challenger this cycle tells you that the former president remains a dominant force in GOP contests. Several other Republican incumbents have navigated tricky primaries over the past few weeks with a hand from Trump. On Tuesday, Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma easily avoided a runoff and defeated a wealthy challenger who had spent millions on the race. Cole told me last week that Trump’s endorsement had been “enormously helpful.” Trump’s support also helped two South Carolina Republicans — Reps. Nancy Mace and William Timmons — win bitter primary battles earlier this month. While many insurgent primary challengers have attempted to align themselves with the MAGA movement, the vast majority of Trump’s nearly 170 House endorsements this cycle — around 85% — have gone to incumbents, much to the delight of party leadership. And most of those lawmakers aren’t facing competitive primaries. Trump has so far only backed two primary challengers against sitting members: McGuire and Jerrod Sessler, a Navy veteran taking on GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington, one of two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. That gets us back to the first truth: Incumbents are tough to beat, in part because they have built-in advantages in name ID, fundraising and a ground game. Newhouse, helped by his state’s top-two primary system, defeated a Trump-backed primary challenger in 2022. We’ll find out Aug. 6 whether Newhouse will be able to do it again. |