Despite his best attempts at delaying the hush money trial, a judge has set a start date of 15 April. The case, brought by New York district attorney Alvin Bragg, alleges that Trump used campaign funds to pay off Stormy Daniels who threatened to go public with a story about an extramarital sexual encounter they had. According to the prosecution, Trump fixer Michael Cohen paid Daniels $130,000 and coordinated with the gossip tabloid the National Enquirer to give Karen McDougal $150,000 to keep stories of their encounters out of the news. Trump’s company then allegedly repaid Cohen $420,000 to cover those costs, fraudulently listing them as legitimate business expenses.
Trump is facing 34 counts of falsifying business records, which he has denied in typically Trumpian style, declaring the accusations against him as a Joe Biden-led attempt to interfere with the election. For more details on all of the cases, sign up to Cameron Joseph’s weekly Trump on Trial newsletter.
Though this is thought to be the least serious of the four cases against Trump – most legal experts do not think he will go to prison as a result – it will still be a highly sobering moment. “There’s a tremendous amount of noise and it does get confusing but when you have that crystal clear moment of the trial really starting it’ll suddenly feel very concrete,” David says.
Trump is also on trial for election interference in Georgia, his handling of classified documents, and federal election interference, which are all dragging along slowly. “There’s a widespread suspicion we may not get any of those before the election, given Trump’s expertise at blocking and delaying,” David says.
Will a conviction affect Trump’s chances?
There is little doubt that if Trump is convicted in the hush money case he will continue to proclaim his innocence and blame Biden and the Democrats for weaponising the justice system against him.
But, despite unwavering support from his base, a criminal conviction could put an unwanted spotlight on Trump: “there’s a question of whether the Trump base might be becoming more extreme but also shrinking at the same time and a criminal conviction could throw that into sharp relief,” David says.
Polling indicates that moderate republicans and independents could be dissuaded from voting for a convicted criminal. An Ipsos poll with Politico found that more than a third of independents would be less likely to support Trump if he were found guilty, which, in a race that is widely predicted to be very close, could be the difference between winning and losing.
The real impact of the trials is difficult to predict because this is “uncharted territory”, David says. “When it is actually under way and there is damning evidence, running all day, every day and it’s getting saturated media coverage, it’ll be difficult for even Trump to avoid.”
A different Trump
While the themes of Trump’s campaign largely remain the same – anti-immigration, anti-woke, reactionary politics – the tone and tenor of the campaign is more extreme and apocalyptic. “He’s running a campaign of vengeance and retribution and he’s more desperate because of the court cases hanging over him,” David says. The election is a war that Trump is fighting and there is nothing he will not say to paint a second Biden term as the end of democracy and America itself. This is not a metaphorical battle for Trump or his supporters, some of whom stormed the Capital in 2021 after he propagated the conspiracy that the election had been stolen by Biden, it is a very real fight for America’s soul.
The most troubling difference between Trump circa 2016 and Trump now is that he has been president before. “During that first term they were building the aeroplane in midair,” David says. “Trump was improvising and making policy on the fly but this time he has an entire infrastructure around him of people thinking about policy.” The campaign itself is better run and organised and they are well prepared for a second term. Conservative lawyers are calculating what kind of executive orders Trump could pass on day one in office if he wins, rightwing thinktanks are drafting policy papers that will ensure that he hits the ground running and his allies have been mapping out specific plans to punish critics. “And on top of all that, of course, Trump will not have people around him who are trying to restrain him, he’ll just appoint loyalists and lackeys,” David adds.
What are his main policies?
Trump’s platform is not all doomsday bluster. He has pledged to deport illegal immigrants “by the millions per year”, with plans to conduct sweeping raids and build huge detention camps to hold people as their cases are processed. He also wants to resume construction of the border wall, impose import taxes and tariffs on imported goods from China and expand the use of the death penalty to include drug dealers. Rolling Stone reported that his close allies have been discussing bringing back hanging, death by firing squad and even the guillotine.
There is still an anti-Trump vote within the GOP – as is evident by those Republican voters still turning out to vote for his one-time opponent Nikki Haley in the primaries. Despite her withdrawal from the race a month ago over 10% of voters still backed her in each of the four primaries that happened on Tuesday. And while his base is becoming ever more fervent, it is not necessarily growing. Whether that proves decisive come November remains to be seen. “Trump did once famously say he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in New York and not lose any voters and that was possibly the truest and most accurate thing he ever said,” David says.
