What’s going on here? Potentially inspired by all the upcoming fireworks, the US threatened Japan with higher tariffs unless a new trade deal is reached by the 9th of July. What does this mean? Japan exports more to the States than it imports, and the US president doesn’t like that ratio. ⚖️ So, determined to balance the scales, he’s threatened the country with tariffs of 30% to 35% if there’s no deal in place by next Wednesday. That would be a serious increase from today’s 10% blanket tax (although there are already some extra duties on cars and steel). ⏰ You can see why the US president upped the stakes: he pledged to secure 90 trade agreements during the 90-day tariff time-out, but has only managed to lock down two so far. 🚗 Japan’s trade imbalance is driven by a lot of high-ticket exports like machinery and cars. And while the country had originally hoped for a quick deal with America, the pair are struggling to agree on a levy to cover those industries – especially the automobile one. 📉 Economists say the worst-case tariffs could shave 1.2% off Japan’s economy – double the expected hit from today’s rates. No wonder the Japanese yen and Nikkei 225 index both suffered after the news. Why should I care? Zooming in: The sale is ending. So far, Japan’s carmakers have covered the cost of tariffs themselves. Makes sense: they risk losing cost-conscious Americans to stateside brands otherwise. To do that, the firms lowered prices in North America by 12% between April and May – the biggest fall on record – which obviously eats into their profit margins. No wonder those carmakers, including Mazda and Subaru, are looking to expand stateside production to dodge future duties. The bigger picture: America’s tariff-ied. The Federal Reserve (Fed) said on Tuesday that interest rates would probably be lower by now if it weren’t for those meddling tariffs. Remember, the levies are intended to bolster American industries in the long term. But in the meantime, they pull up prices of all sorts of imports. So, despite the economy calling out for a helping hand, the Fed needs to keep a firm hand on rising prices – or else, inflation could slip out of grasp again. |