A new Abacus poll shows Liberal fortunes starting to sink, Bill Morneau tables a new recovery bill and a new census is ready for Canada

Maclean’s Politics Insider
 

The story of Trudeau's approval rating

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The long arc of Justin Trudeau's approval rating bends toward scandal. A new Abacus poll tested the impact of the WE Affair on Canadian voters. The pollsters found that, indeed, the Liberal government's approval has taken clear hits. And the two-year see-saw battle that is Trudeau's personal approval rating reflects his own-goal scandals and dramatic recovery: you can pinpoint the spot in 2018 when the SNC-Lavalin affair went down. Last year's election didn't offer the PM much of a bounce, but his handling of the pandemic scored well. Now, the negatives are piling up.

Abacus also finds a 53-47 split on how Canadians view the WE controversy. Just over half say the doomed $912-million program was an effort to reward "people who are friends and supporters." A large minority of respondents say the face-plant was "more about short time frames and a lack of proper diligence."

Where is Trudeau today? His itinerary lists "private meetings" of the sort that can't help but invite questions about what exactly is happening behind closed doors. But then the PM has a scheduled chat with Aussie PM Scott Morrison. Then he'll attend question period, which means he'll face the opposition's inevitably withering assault on questions they've been fermenting on all things WE. Trudeau still hasn't committed to answering questions within the specific confines of a parliamentary committee, but the big House will at least get its chance.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau tabled Bill C-20 yesterday. That's the government's latest pandemic spending bill, and it'll do a few things: extend the federal wage subsidy to the end of the year, formalize one-time payments of $600 to people with disabilities and delay a laundry list of statutorily time-limited things—including certain court proceedings—that were disrupted by the pandemic.

Why wait until 2021 to see the census questions when you can see them today? Statistics Canada published next year's questions in the Canada Gazette over the weekend. As the Globe and Mail first reported, this census adds questions on gender identity and Indigenous communities . Question #2 asks for every Canadian's sex assigned at birth, but #3 asks for gender—"which may be different," it notes, from sex assignment at birth and legal documents. Question #29 asks if the respondent is "enrolled under, or a beneficiary of," an Inuit land claims agreement—another first.

The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives' latest "alternative federal budget" plan adds more research to the growing consensus that the economic crisis currently engulfing Canada is not treating genders equally. Says CCPA Senior Researcher Katherine Scott: "The harsh reality of the pandemic is that the economic slowdown is threatening to set women’s equality advances back by a generation." The CCPA's antidote includes universal child care, a "decarbonized" economy and targeted support "to those with caring obligations."

A Canadian team is on the ground in Paris as part of the analysis of flight data recorders from Flight 752. The Transportation Safety Board of Canada confirmed the presence of the black boxes at the office of the French civil aviation authority—no small feat after months of demands from the five nations who lost citizens. But the TSB's chair, Kathy Fox, isn't satisfied. Fox isn't sure how Iran plans to proceed with the investigation—it still controls most of how it plays out—and says Canada wants to change the international rules on who controls investigations . But don't expect an amended treaty any time soon.

Your virtual Excellency: Governor-General Julie Payette gets to accept the credentials of new ambassadors to Canada. Yesterday, Payette's office announced that both Vietnam and South Korea have new heads of mission in Ottawa. Somehow the virtual ceremony—here's Pham Cao Phong from Vietnam; here's Chang Keung Ryong from South Korea—lacked the pomp and circumstance of the up-close-and-personal equivalent.

A pandemic ballot? Just in case New Brunswick's minority government doesn't last the calendar year, the province's chief electoral officer is gearing up for an election. Scuttlebutt among some leading politicians is Premier Blaine Higgs wants a trip to the polls. The Canadian Press quotes political scientist J.P. Lewis as saying, of a vote in these strange times, that "the normal patterns of campaign politics and voter behaviour don’t necessarily apply." Ya think?

—Nick Taylor-Vaisey

 
 

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