UK: JOHNSON SAFE FOR NOW MAY NOT MEAN SAFE FOR GOOD

Still standing: With his authority diminished, Boris Johnson tonight managed to stave off an attack by his own members of parliament (MPs) to unseat him. After securing a narrow majority of 211 of out 359 Conservative MPs, Johnson remains party leader and UK Prime Minister (PM). Based on current Conservative Party rules, Johnson cannot be challenged for another 12 months. However, this does not mean it is back to business as usual for his government.

Noisy times ahead: The number of rebels who voted to oust Johnson (148) far exceeds the Conservative Party’s working majority of 75 seats in the House of Commons. If the rebels are determined, they could threaten to stall the government’s legislative agenda which would further weaken the Conservatives standing in the polls and heap further pressure on Johnson. In order to break any ensuing deadlock, MPs that are only lukewarm towards Johnson but backed him tonight may eventually be ready to switch sides. To counter such a move, expect Johnson to undertake a major reshuffle of his government in order to try and shore up support and recover his grip on the party.

Rules schmules: In July 2019, the-then PM Theresa May succumbed to party pressure and resigned just seven months after surviving a confidence vote. While it seems unlikely that Johnson would resign, it remains possible that the Conservative Party will find a way to oust him if party MPs eventually gain a majority for it. The party could, for instance, scrap the rule that protects leaders from a new confidence vote for 12 months and repeat today’s vote with the hope of a different outcome.

Days numbered: The risk of a worsening economy over the summer, as well as bad results in upcoming by-elections such as in West Yorkshire and Devon on around 23 June could swing the pendulum against Johnson yet. Even though Johnson has survived today, it is hard to see how he can recover the erstwhile support of his MPs. Unless Johnson stages a dramatic improvement in the polls in coming months, it is likely that Johnson will face renewed challenges to his leadership.

For more detail on the consequences of tonight’s vote please here.

Kallum Pickering
Senior Economist, Director

Mobile +44 791 710 6575

Phone +44 203 465 2672

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