Markets hate uncertainty... Often, a major unknown is enough to explain a losing period for stocks. No one wants to buy if the future is unclear. They'll just sell instead.
And now, the presidential election is just a day away.
With that in mind, we're turning the PowerFeed over to our good friend Brett Eversole today. Regular readers know that Brett is an editor at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research.
Brett originally shared this essay with the readers of his free DailyWealth e-letter on October 22. And as you'll see, his message ties in closely with our current environment...
Uncertainty Spikes... And the Reason Why Is Obvious
By Brett Eversole, editor, Stansberry Research
Markets hate uncertainty...
Often, a major unknown is enough to explain a losing period for stocks. No one wants to buy if the future is unclear. They'll just sell instead.
It's not just markets, either.
Real businesses have a hard time planning for the future when it feels like a minefield. How can you invest in a project for the next decade when the next few months are up in the air?
That's the situation we're seeing right now...
In short, small-business uncertainty just hit the highest level in recorded history.
It's surprising. But the explanation is simpler than you might think. And it means this rise in fear isn't worth fretting over...
A Wall Street legend is warning 892,000 Americans to prepare immediately for November 8. A historic disconnect in the U.S. financial markets will open the biggest "rapid-fire moneymaking opportunity" of his 50-year career. You could double or triple your portfolio if you're willing to pull your cash out of banks and embrace a new way of investing. Click here to learn more.
If Donald Trump wins on Tuesday, there's one group of stocks you need to own for a shot at 100%-plus returns, according to one of America's most respected investors. He says a vast amount of historical data, going all the way back to the 1920s, suggests this single, surprising approach is the smart way to play the election. Everything you need to know is right here.
If you want to know how folks feel, hard data and real money are better measures than words. You should always watch what people do, not what they say.
Still, if you ask the same folks the same questions over time, the history of their answers will be darn valuable.
The National Federation of Independent Business ("NFIB") has done that for decades...
This association for small businesses routinely asks its members what they expect in the economy. And then, it builds several indexes based on their responses.
Today, we're looking at the NFIB's Uncertainty Index.
This index represents the "I'm not sure" answers from these surveys. And according to this reading, small-business uncertainty just hit its highest level on record. Take a look...
When I first saw this level of uncertainty, it caught me off guard. I would have expected it to be worse during the COVID-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis.
It makes perfect sense, though, once you investigate the data...
The last time we saw a spike and multiyear high like today was late 2020. Before that, it was late 2016. And we saw another multiyear high in late 2012.
Notice the pattern?
Small-business uncertainty spikes once every four years or so.
It happens in the months just before the U.S. presidential election.
In fact, the only time in the past two decades that this indicator didn't hit a multiyear high before an election was in 2008. But with the economic crisis unfolding back then, folks were probably too certain of demise to be stumped with uncertainty.
Once you pick up on this pattern, the potentially scary headline is a lot less concerning...
Of course uncertainty spikes around elections. Election Day is the most uncertain thing that gets a regular spot on our calendars.
But as investors, we know elections aren't something to fear...
Once they're over, the uncertainty is gone. And often, even a bad outcome is better for the markets than not knowing what's next.
That will likely hold true this time around, too.
Regardless of who wins the White House, stocks will likely do well once the election passes. And we're certain to see a collapse in small-business uncertainty.
Good investing,
Brett Eversole Editor's note: The election is tomorrow. That's leading to a huge amount of uncertainty.
But it doesn't mean the market is out of opportunities.
To that point, Marc recently detailed what the so-called "smart money" is doing right now...
In the end, the biggest "rapid fire" moneymaking opportunity of his 50-year career could be upon us. It's a new way to spot potential buying sprees on 5,000 stocks – before they occur – for the chance to double your money over the next year. Watch Marc's presentation here.
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.64%
10
17
3
S&P 500
+0.42%
113
298
82
Nasdaq
+0.74%
20
70
10
Small Caps
+0.56%
479
1034
403
Bonds
-1.41%
Consumer Discretionary
+1.63%
11
31
8
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain somewhat Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Communication
+1.71%
Financial
-0.11%
Discretionary
-0.36%
Health Care
-0.57%
Materials
-0.88%
Industrials
-1.03%
Staples
-1.12%
Energy
-1.98%
Information Technology
-2.77%
Utilities
-2.8%
Real Estate
-3.02%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Capital Markets Services
43
18
0
Over the past 6 months, the Capital Markets subsector (KCE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +9.62%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #1 of 21 subsectors.
Top Stocks
RJF
Raymond James Financ
NTRS
Northern Trust Corpo
IBKR
Interactive Brokers
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
WAT
+19.84%
CHTR
+11.87%
LULU
+7.81%
INTC
+7.81%
CAH
+7.01%
Losers
SMCI
-10.51%
AES
-9.85%
AMCR
-7.82%
ERIE
-7.5%
ETR
-6.45%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
CEG, FOXA, MAR, NCLH
GDDY
BEN, FIS, L, PEG, PGR, REGN, RVTY
AVB, HOLX, NXPI, O, PLTR, VRTX, WYNN, ZTS
AIG
CE, FANG
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
Q3
$0.79
Beat by $0.11
CAH Cardinal Health, Inc.
Q1
$1.88
Beat by $0.26
TROW T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.
Q3
$2.57
Beat by $0.22
WAT Waters Corporation
Q3
$2.93
Beat by $0.25
D Dominion Energy, Inc.
Q3
$0.98
Beat by $0.05
* * * *
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