Europe's working real slowly | Trian's got big plans |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for January 25th in 3:15 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Business activity in the eurozone dropped off massively in January
  2. Three essential indicators are telling bitcoin investors a lot about how much further the market has to fall – Read Now
  3. Activist investor Trian has built up a stake in Unilever – and it might use it to break up the consumer goods giant

Waiting Game

Waiting Game

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Monday showed European business activity climbed at its slowest pace in almost a year this month, as the region’s socialites sit tight till this whole Omicron thing blows over.

What Does This Mean?

European governments have been going out of their way to keep the recent wave of Covid cases under control, which could’ve spelled trouble for their manufacturing sectors in January. But the region’s latest business activity survey – which asks companies how busy they’ve been that month – showed factories weren’t affected all that much by new restrictions. Quite the opposite: manufacturing activity actually hit a five-month high on the back of easing supply shortages. Trouble is, restrictions are still a nightmare for hospitality and other consumer-facing sectors, with activity in services businesses dropping to a nine-month low. And that much bad was enough to outweigh any good: overall business activity fell to its lowest level since last February.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Will the ECB be forced to act?
Business might be slowing down, but prices are only going up as companies pass their higher costs onto customers. In fact, the average price businesses were charging for goods and services in January rose at its fastest pace on record (tweet this). And since that might push record inflation even higher, some economists are starting to think the European Central Bank – which has previously said that it won’t raise interest rates this year – might be forced to do exactly that.

The bigger picture: Europe’s over Covid.
This manufacturing data is in keeping with other analysis over the weekend, which showed that Omicron’s causing a lot less damage to the economy than previous variants did – mostly thanks to high vaccination rates. Case in point: there were around twice as many visits to shops, bars, and restaurants this month as there were last January, even though this month’s infection rates make last year’s look like small potatoes.

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Analyst Take

The Must-Know Signals Every Bitcoin Investor Needs To Follow

The Must-Know Signals Every Bitcoin Investor Needs To Follow
Photo of Stéphane Renevier

Stéphane Renevier, Analyst

What’s Going On Here?

If you invest in stocks, you’re probably very familiar with price indicators.

You know, P/E ratio, simple moving average, insider buying – signals that tell you when to buy into a market or when to get out of dodge.

But there are hundreds available to crypto investors too, some of which can give you a real edge in the market.

And there are three indicators that are particularly useful, especially given what they’re currently suggesting about how much further the bitcoin market has to fall.

So that’s today’s Insight: the three indicators any bitcoin investor needs to know, and what they’re telling us about the market right now.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Flavor Of The Day

Flavor Of The Day

What’s Going On Here?

News broke on Monday that Trian has been building up a stake in Unilever, and the activist investor is licking its lips at the prospect of breaking up the Ben & Jerry’s maker…

What Does This Mean?

Unilever’s been feeling the pressure to rethink its strategy for a while now, and last week’s failed bid for GlaxoSmithKline’s consumer health business only compounded investors’ worries. So Trian’s ready to show its hand: the activist investor – which buys a big enough stake in companies so it can bring about change from the inside – has reportedly been hoarding Unilever’s shares over the past few months. Analysts reckon it’ll use its substantial position to push the company into separating its lagging food segment from its much more successful household and personal care segment. That, Trian might be hoping, would give Unilever a much more streamlined focus, and hopefully drive up its share price.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Trian’s been there, done that.
Investors sent Unilever’s stock up 7% on the news, which could be for a couple of reasons. For one thing, Trian’s got pedigree with consumer staples: the firm helped boost Procter & Gamble’s stock by 67% between 2017 and 2021. And for another, Unilever’s already in an enviable spot right now: it sells everyday essentials, which means it can pass higher costs onto its customers without losing them. Any improvements Trian brings to the table, then, are the icing on the cake.

The bigger picture: Activists are cornering Peloton too.
Activist investors are out in full force right now, with Blackwells Capital reportedly pressuring exercise equipment company Peloton to think about selling itself to Apple, Disney, or Nike. The company’s losing customers hand over fist as gyms reopen, after all, and its shares are languishing over 80% below their all-time highs. If the right buyer came along, though, it’d offer a premium on Peloton’s share price, which would go some way to offsetting its shareholders’ losses.

You might also like: How to invest like an activist.

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💬 Quote of the day

“There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing.”

– Robert Burns (a Scottish poet and lyricist)
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🌎 Finimize Live

🌈 An internet utopia

DAOs sure sound like a dreamland: they’re based on transparency, community, and collaboration, and they’re used by charities and fundraisers all around the world. But to find out if it’s all too good to be true, come along to our Investing In DAOs event and see if they really can take you to investing heaven.

📲 Investing In DAOs: 5pm UK time, January 25th
⚡️ How To Invest In The Energy Transition: 6pm UK time, January 26th
🎟 How NFTs Will Transform The Future Of Events: 5pm UK time, January 27th
🔥 Your Guide To New Investing Opportunities: 6pm UK time, January 28th
🚀 Will The Future Be Tokenized?: 6pm UK time, January 31st
💸 How To Earn A Passive Income From Franchise Investing: 6pm UK time, February 1st
🔥 Getting The Most Out Of Your Investing Strategy: 5pm UK time, February 17th
🏡 Your Guide To Opportunity Zones: 5pm UK time, February 25th

🎯 On Our Radar

  1. Not another Mr Big. TV shows this year just aren’t on Peloton’s side.
  2. The original fitness influencer. He owes it all to spinach.
  3. Life according to André. Remembering one of fashion’s brightest smiles.
  4. Wine’s next step. Chablis: climate change edition.
  5. The ultimate film critique. Jeff Goldblum on… Jeff Goldblum.
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