| So much for a sweet tooth | The UK stays stubborn |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for December 18th in 3:12 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over an Earl Grey at Cosmitto Coffee in Tunis, Tunisia (17°C/62°F 🌤)

Today's big stories

  1. Consumer goods giant Unilever warned investors its sales growth this year and next would be lower than expected
  2. Tech giant Netflix revealed details of its international users to investors, likely as a response to intensifying rivalries – Read now
  3. The British pound’s value dropped, despite record-setting unemployment figures in the three months until October
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Brain Freeze

Brain Freeze

What’s Going On Here?

Unilever – the Anglo-Dutch maker of consumer favorites like Ben & Jerry’s ice cream – announced on Tuesday that its half-baked sales growth would leave investors cold.

What Does This Mean?

As recently as October, Unilever had claimed it’d grow its sales this year by between 3% and 5%. But the company now believes they'll fall short of even the low end of that forecast. That’d make this quarter’s sales just 1.5% higher than the same time a year ago – its slowest growth in over a decade.

Unilever thinks sales growth will languish below 3% until next summer, at which point it might finally start to pick up. That’d likely be thanks to an uplift in the company’s North American business, which has already shown early signs of improvement.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Trade secrets.
Unilever blamed tough markets in West Africa and South Asia: those territories, combined with the Middle East, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, make up almost half its revenue. And while some analysts think there might be more to the company’s troubles than meets the eye (which might explain why its stock fell 7%), they’ll have to wait until its full earnings report at the end of January to know for sure. In the meantime, rival Nestlé will likely woo Unilever-less investors by selling off parts of its businesses that don’t cut the mustard.

The bigger picture: Death by 1,000 cuts.
The European stock market has risen about 25% this year, but Unilever might signal the beginning of the end. Some analysts believe current predictions of 9% profit growth for European companies next year are too high, not least because it’s the same growth rate expected from US companies. Given there’s higher economic growth Stateside – as well as ongoing share buybacks, which reduce the number of shares in circulation and therefore boost profit per share – America’s profit growth should exceed Europe’s.

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2/3 Premium Story

Drama Queen

Entertainment-hungry investors took their seats to watch Netflix show off its international user-base growth on Tuesday. The previously tight-lipped company might’ve chosen to reveal those numbers as a response to new streaming rivals Disney+ and Apple: it may need to convince investors it’s poised for continued growth despite the new competition on the scene.

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3/3

Home Stretch

Home Stretch

What’s Going On Here?

With new reports suggesting Brexit negotiations won’t extend much further, the British pound fell on Tuesday – but at least fresh data showed that, in the three months to October, UK unemployment reached its lowest level since 1975.

What Does This Mean?

The UK unemployment rate between August and October dropped to 3.8%, suggesting the continued decline in British manufacturing activity hasn’t yet led to job losses (tweet this). Or if it has, they might’ve been more than offset by new jobs in the services industry, which represents 80% of the UK economy and is shrinking more slowly than its blue-collar counterpart.

Workers’ average wages between July and September, meanwhile, were lower than economists predicted, even if they are 3.2% higher than a year ago. Still, they are rising faster than product prices, so all else being equal, Brits should have a little extra spending money after each paycheck.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Breaking the pound.
Strong employment data is typically good for investors: it points to a stronger UK economy and may encourage them to buy the British pound. But their focus on Tuesday was, after a very brief respite, back on Brexit. Reports the UK might yet leave the European Union in a year’s time without a trade agreement risk increasing businesses’ trading costs, in turn lowering their profits. And investors – perhaps hoping to escape renewed uncertainty – sold off the pound, which fell 1% and neared its level from before last week’s election.

For you personally: Penny wise, pound foolish.
US investors who might’ve benefited from owning America’s stocks and avoiding Britain’s might now begin to reassess the impact of currencies on their investments. Some analysts expect the US dollar to weaken and the pound to strengthen next year – the latter thanks to the postponed business investment likely to arrive once Brexit is brexecuted. International investors who agree might see the pound as an attractive investment, and UK investors might invest domestically to avoid losing out from a rising currency.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Without reflection, we go blindly on our way, creating more unintended consequences and failing to achieve anything useful.”

– Meg Wheatley (an American writer)
Tweet this
🤔 Q&A

“What do central bank interest rates of below 0% mean for investors in government bonds?”

– Suraj in California, USA

“In general, Suraj, it means making a loss. Investors typically benchmark government bond yields, at least in part, against central bank interest rates. When those rates are negative – as they are in the eurozone – some government bond yields tend to follow. That’s because investors often buy up existing bonds in the expectation that newly issued bonds will offer even lower returns. The increased demand for existing bonds, then, pushes their prices and up and their yields down (remember, the two move inversely). Those price rises might benefit existing bondholders, but new investors in those bonds (and perhaps in new ones) are all but guaranteeing themselves a small loss.”

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Image Credits:

Image credits: Keith Homan - Shutterstock, Unilever | JD Hancock - Flickr, VectorShop - Shutterstock

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