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| Friday, August 26, 2022 |
| There was a time when Dameon Pierce was a fantastic late-round target for your Fantasy drafts, but that time ended long before Pierce punctuated a productive first drive of the team's preseason game against the 49ers on Thursday with a touchdown. |
| Pierce went 77th in a mock draft we did Thursday afternoon, and I reckon that's going to look like a huge bargain this weekend. Because, I'm expecting to see Pierce drafted in the first five rounds moving forward, and while I hate to be the stick in the mud … that's just too expensive for my blood. |
I wrote about my expectations for Pierce and why I just can't get too excited about him even as the lead back for the Texans … mostly because he's the lead back for the Texans. Lovie Smith does tend to give his RB1 a ton of work, but Pierce enters the NFL as a fourth-round pick who peaked at 106 carries in four college seasons, so … it's hard to project a massive role there. And this was the worst offense in football for running backs last year, too, so it's just a lot working against him. |
| I didn't mind that bet when the cost was low, but if he's going to cost a fifth-round pick, I'm out. |
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| Today's newsletter also has my updated top-200 rankings, and if you want to see my rankings by position, well, I'm linking to those too, along with everything else you need to get ready for your drafts this weekend. |
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| Favorite late-round targets |
We're focusing on players with an ADP outside of the top 120, primarily with an eye on some long-range upside, but I'll start with a player I think could be surprisingly useful if you need some Week 1 help. For more late-round targets, make sure you check out Heath's Deep Sleepers for Every Team column from Thursday: |
- Ameer Abdullah, RB, Raiders – ADP: 230.55: Abdullah sat out the last two preseason games and the Raiders are getting rid of Kenyan Drake, so it sure seems like Abdullah is locked in as the pass-catching back here. That's been a very valuable role in a Josh McDaniels offense in the past, so if you need an early-season fill-in for a PPR league, Abdullah could be sneaky useful.
- Nico Collins, WR, Texans – ADP: 138.07: Collins didn't do much as a rookie, but he had one fewer red zone target than Brandin Cooks and it wouldn't be a shock to see the big-bodied receiver emerge as Davis Mills' go-to option down there. By all accounts, he's had a good training camp, and there is very little competition here beyond Cooks.
- Jarvis Landry, WR, Saints – ADP: 141.22: Landry might just be the No. 4 target in New Orleans, but it's also possible he leads the team in targets early in the season if Michael Thomas' hamstring injury lingers and Chris Olave takes a few weeks to get his feet under him. Landry played hurt over the past two seasons for a Browns team that needed him, but we know he can be a useful PPR option when featured.
- Julio Jones, WR, Buccaneers – ADP: 148.13: I'm surprised Jones hasn't seen more of a bump in cost. Granted, we haven't heard much about him in camp, but with Chris Godwin still a question mark for the start of the season, he could be in line for a solid role early on. The smart bet is Jones is more of a Rob Gronkowski replacement than anything, but the idea of him actually having room to operate in the red zone with an elite quarterback is pretty enticing. Jones has still been pretty productive when healthy, posting an above average yards per route run in 2021 after having an elite mark in 2020.
- Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins – ADP: 157.54: What buzz there has been about the Dolphins backfield in camp has mostly revolved around Chase Edmonds cementing his place as the primary back, but if Mostert is healthy, it wouldn't be a shock to see him get plenty of work on early downs in an offense he has experience (and success!) in.
- Zamir White, WR, Raiders – ADP: 158.32: You'll probably have to be more patient with White, but if anything happens to Josh Jacobs – or if the team just sours on him after turning down his fifth-year option – White could be in line for a very healthy role. For all we know, White might already have standalone value given how McDaniels has historically divvied up RB work.
- Jameis Winston , QB, Saints – ADP: 180.32: Winston was off to a better start to his Saints career than you remember, because they just didn't throw very often. He had a solid 7.3 yards per attempt and 14 touchdowns in seven games and should be in line for a nice boost in volume with a healthier receiving corps. He could be in that Derek Carr/Kirk Cousins range by the end of the season and I wouldn't be surprised.
- Gerald Everett, TE, Chargers – ADP: 186.78: Donald Parham was getting some buzz early in camp, but he has had trouble getting on the field. Everett's role as the lead tight end seems locked in to me, and that role saw Jared Cook earn 83 targets last season. I'm willing to bet Everett can best Cook's 48-564-4 line, and there's TE1 upside here.
- Eno Benjamin, RB, Cardinals – ADP: 195.91: I'm surprised Benjamin is going as late as he is, because I think there's a pretty good chance he's the Cardinals RB2. That may not mean quite as many touches as Chase Edmonds had a year ago, but it could put him one James Conner injury away from being the lead back in an offense that produces a lot of Fantasy points for running backs. And injuries have not been a rare occurrence for Conner in his career.
- Dontrell Hilliard , RB, Titans – ADP: 245.94: Neither Titans running back has much standalone appeal when Derrick Henry is healthy, but I'm surprised Hilliard is being drafted later than Hassan Haskins when they've been drafted at all. Hilliard has apparently had an excellent training camp, per The Athletic's Joe Rexrode, who named him the clear option to have behind Henry. Given that Henry's an older back coming off a significant injury, Hilliard's chances of making an impact are probably better than you think.
- Curtis Samuel, WR, Commanders: I can't give up on Samuel. The last time we saw him healthy he had 1,051 total yards in 15 games with the Panthers, and he was top 10 in the NFL in air yards while adding 19 carries the last time he played with Ron Rivera. There's competition in the form of rookie Jahan Dotson, but I like Samuel's post-hype breakout status after a lost first season reuniting with Rivera.
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| And now, here's everything you need to knock out your draft this weekend, with my updated top-200 rankings available at the bottom of the newsletter. I try to keep this newsletter from being a big dump of links, but in this case, utility wins out. Here's a big dump of links to everything you need to know about: |
| Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts |
| Here's where we're planting our flags this season. |
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| QB Preview |
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| RB Preview |
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| WR Preview |
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| TE Preview |
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| Team Previews |
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| Pick-by-Pick Strategies |
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| Mock Drafts |
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| Dynasty Corner |
| Rankings |
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| Tiers |
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| Mock Drafts |
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| Updated top-200 rankings |
| No kickers and defenses. Sorry. I go on a week-by-week basis with those positions 99% of the time. |
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