Dear Reader, There’s a heck of a lot of noise, panic and bluster around COVID-19. On one hand, I’m reluctant to add to it. On the other hand, we have a duty to our readers to explore every angle. As you know, four key analysts here — Greg Canavan, Callum Newman, Sam Volkering and Ryan Dinse — think it’s all looking rather overblown by the mainstream media. As Sam said in his recent Australian Small-Cap Investigator update: ‘There is no doubt that this is a deadly disease that needs a global effort to stem its spread and limit its impact. ‘We’ve endured health crises like this before. There is no reason this will be any different in our eyes. ‘In fact, if you look at things pragmatically, COVID-19 isn’t nearly as deadly as some other contagions. ‘Current data suggests roughly 4.7% of victims endure critical symptoms. Things like respiratory failure or organs shutting down. And as it stands, only 2.3% of people have actually died. In comparison, SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6%.’ We have one analyst, however, who stands in disagreement to the four mentioned above. Jim Rickards believes the tsunami of bad news is only going to get worse. And, as you’ll see here, his track record for macro predictions is pretty on-point. Jim writes: ‘The 2008 panic started in the spring of 2007 with HSBC earnings. The 1998 panic started in the spring of 1997 with a Thai devaluation. These things can take a year to spread and enlarge. So, the full impact may not be felt until 2021. A slow-mo avalanche…’ Jim Rickards believes a trigger such as the coronavirus is likely to result in the day of reckoning for this record bull market. To find out why, and how to prepare, read this. Cheers, | | James Woodburn, Group Publisher, Port Phillip Publishing |
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