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Hi John, here's what you need to know for August 20th in 3:14 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a flat white at D16 Coffee in Split, Croatia (31°C/88°F ☀️)

Today's big stories

  1. The US stock market hit a new record high
  2. Our analysts show how you can profit from a sudden boom in sustainability – Read Now
  3. Retailers Lowe’s and Target reported stronger-than-expected results
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Adrenaline Junkie

Adrenaline Junkie

What’s Going On Here?

The key US stock market index hit a record high this week (tweet this). What a rush!

What Does This Mean?

Back in March, the S&P 500 – a key index of the US’s biggest public companies – collapsed into a “bear market” as investors braced themselves for the financial fallout caused by coronavirus. But ever since then, the promise that major central banks and governments would do whatever they could to prop up the economy – and, by extension, markets – has seen stock prices shoot past pre-pandemic levels.

This week’s new record might’ve been thanks to improvements in US coronavirus data, like case counts and hospitalizations. It might also have something to do with a falling US dollar versus other currencies: the drop not only makes US assets – like stocks – look cheaper to non-US buyers, it boosts the value of American companies’ international profits when they bring them home. And given that roughly half the biggest US companies’ profits come from overseas, it’s perhaps no surprise investors have been buying up their shares.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Do you even lift?
It’s true, a weak dollar might give the US economy – not just its stock market – a boost: foreign buyers might be more tempted to buy US products in the short term if they're looking cheaper than before, which could boost the country’s trade balance. But if the dollar is too weak for too long, investors might start to question the overall strength of the US economy and move their money out of the country altogether.

The bigger picture: Whoa there.
Analysts are still keenly aware of the risks that could derail US stocks. For one, coronavirus cases may spike in the winter. And for another, that pesky trade war might kick off again: the US has just canceled trade discussions with China, after all. Those looming dangers might be why Goldman Sachs reckons US stocks will only rise another 6% this year.

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2/3 Premium

How To Grow Your Returns

What’s Going On Here?

The amount of sustainability-focused borrowing by companies and institutions has surged in 2020, and buying into those bonds could be a fruitful move.

Get the full story with Finimize Premium

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3/3

Happy Customers

Happy Customers

What’s Going On Here?

Retailer Target and Lowe’s were feeling awfully pleased with their shopping experiences after announcing better-than-expected second-quarter results on Wednesday.

What Does This Mean?

Sales at Target’s existing stores were 24% higher than the same time last year, compared to the 9% analysts had been predicting. That uptick was partly thanks to a 195% rise in revenue in the company’s ecommerce segment, which included a – pause for effect – 700% rise in curbside collection. The retailer’s quarterly profit jumped too – by an expectation-busting 80%.

Home improvement retailer Lowe’s was too busy admiring its own handiwork to notice: sales at its existing stores grew by a higher-than-expected 35% versus the same time last year, and its profit was up 70%. It grew its sales faster than nosy neighbor Home Depot yet again too. In the first quarter, investors might’ve put that gap down to a well-timed spring sale from Lowe’s. Now, though, it looks like it might be a more permanent fixture.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Shop ‘til your stock doesn’t drop.
Target’s stock rose 12% on Wednesday – probably because it’s benefited from lockdown-enforced online shopping and stimulus check-enabled spending. And with school shopping season around the corner, the company’s likely to keep benefiting. Lowe’s share price, on the other hand, only rose 1%. That could be because investors – who might’ve seen Home Depot’s positive update as promising news for its rival – pushed up Lowe’s stock on Tuesday, meaning good news was already “priced in” to its stock.

The bigger picture: Zero sum game.
While Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s all did pretty well in the second quarter, off-price clothing retailer TJ Maxx (or TK Maxx in the UK) missed out. Its quarterly loss – partly driven by forced store closures – was worse than expected, and its shares fell 6%. Then again, it's a "discretionary" retailer, not an "essential" one like Walmart and Target – and as such wasn't allowed to stay open throughout the pandemic like they were.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Happiness does not depend on outward things, but on the way we see them.”

– Leo Tolstoy (a Russian writer)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Smart Money

“Is an exchange-traded fund (ETFs) riskier than a mortgage-backed security (MBS)?”

– Marcelo in Mexico

“The short answer is not necessarily, Marcelo, but we’ll give you the long answer for good measure. An ETF tracks the value of an asset or group of assets, like oil or US stocks. An MBS is a little more complex: it combines several mortgages – all of varying levels of risk – into a single bond-of-sorts that investors can buy into. That means it’s possible to have an ETF that tracks the values of a few MBSs. That is to say, the safety of an ETF compared to an MBS depends on what’s in them: an ETF is on the safer side if it’s tracking government bonds, the riskier side if it’s tracking cryptocurrencies, or exactly as risky if it’s tracking the same MBS you’re comparing it to.”

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🌎 Finimize Community

🎬 Dr Carole Nakhle 2: The ReNakhling

It’s been a few months since Dr Carole Nakhle told us how the oil industry was faring, and now she’s back: she’ll answer your questions about peak oil demand, the outlook for energy transition, and the shape of the global recovery. Critics are already raving about her performance.

🇦🇪 UAE: Is The Worst Over For Oil? – 5pm Dubai Time, August 20th
🇬🇧 UK: Create your Financial Fitness Plan – 2.30pm UK Time, August 26th
🇩🇪 Germany: The Rise of Sustainable Investment – 11am Berlin Time, August 27th
🇬🇧 UK: Build Your Own Investment Portfolio – 11am UK Time, August 28th

📚 What we're reading

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