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Hi John, here's what you need to know for January 9th in 3:09 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a red cappucino at the Tin Roof Café in Nairobi, Kenya (20°C/68°F ☁️)

Today's big stories

  1. Earnings updates from Walgreens Boots Alliance, Macy’s, Greggs, and Sainsbury’s showed how US and UK consumer spending is holding up
  2. European stocks have lagged behind the US for years, and Goldman Sachs doesn't see that changing any time soon – Read now
  3. Mega mining company Anglo American is in discussions to buy rival Sirius Minerals for $500 million
1/3

Spitting Image

Spitting Image

What’s Going On Here?

There wasn’t much to separate the Brits from the Yanks on Wednesday, with Walgreens Boots Alliance, Macy’s, Sainsbury’s, and Greggs all reporting similar-looking earnings updates.

What Does This Mean?

Stateside, drugstore chain Walgreens – which recently attracted a takeover bid from private equity firm KKR – saw its stock fall 6% after it reported worse-than-expected quarterly revenue and profit. Department store Macy’s, on the other hand, didn’t suffer as big a decline in its holiday sales as investors had feared, and its shares rose 2%.

It was the same story across the Atlantic on Wednesday, with holiday revenue at Sainsbury’s – the UK’s second-biggest grocery chain – falling by less than expected. The shrinkage of its non-food product sales was partly offset by growth in its grocery business, which contributes three-quarters of its revenue. Baker Greggs, meanwhile, continued to lead a healthy lifestyle: it raised its annual profit forecast yet again, partly thanks to its lineup of vegan-friendly snacks.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Consumo wrestling.
The services sector represents 80% of America's economy and 85% of Britain's, and it’s largely driven by consumer spending. It makes sense, then, that both countries – and their retailers – rely on consumer spending for the vast majority of their growth. But Walgreens’ negative update and Greggs’ positive one – at a time when American shoppers have been doing their bit and the UK’s haven’t – is a reminder that consumer spending trends aren’t all-encompassing: retailers’ earnings might still exceed investors' expectations, and stock prices might still rise.

For markets: Where earnings go, dividends follow.
American companies paid investors almost $500 billion in dividends last year – a new record – and analysts predict that’ll rise another 3% this year. Companies have also recently supplemented dividends with share buybacks, which typically have a positive effect on share prices and tend to attract lower taxes – in turn boosting shareholder returns.

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2/3 Premium Story

Europe's Fables

European shares have been the tortoise to America’s hare for the past decade. And a new report from Goldman Sachs sees few signs that slow and steady is going to win the race any time soon.

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3/3

Mine Precious

Mine Precious

What’s Going On Here?

Anglo American wantses Sirius Minerals’ precious mine: the $30 billion global mining company announced on Wednesday it’s in talks to buy the British firm for $500 million.

What Does This Mean?

Anglo American makes over a quarter of its profit from iron ore, and it does brisk business mining copper, platinum, and diamonds too. Sirius, on the other hand, has no profit to speak of. What it does have is an as-yet-undeveloped UK potash mine, whose valuable mineral is used in fertilizer manufacturing.

Sirius struggled to raise the money it needed to press ahead with the mine construction last year, which led its stock price to drop more than 50%. But a tie-up with Anglo would almost guarantee Sirius’s roughly $4 billion mine would get built. And given Sirius’s plans to produce $2.5 billion worth of potash annually, it shouldn’t be long before Anglo makes a positive return on its investment…

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Lucky dip?
Teaming up with a larger miner was always an option for Sirius, and it probably looked like quite the bargain to would-be partners: its share price had fallen from 22p this time last year to 4p before Anglo’s announcement. After the update, Sirius’s stock rose 34%, likely as investors anticipated a windfall from the Anglo deal. But not all the miner’s investors have it so good: even Wednesday’s price jump won’t make up for the losses longstanding investors – including well-known hedge fund Pelham Capital – will have suffered.

The bigger picture: Testing investors' mettle.
With tensions between Iran and the US escalating further on Wednesday, investors fearful of disruptions to economic growth bought up gold, pushing it to its highest price since 2012. That’s no bad thing, says investment bank Goldman Sachs, which has found gold’s a better hedge against extreme geopolitical tensions – including military action – than oil (tweet this). Goldman thinks prices of metals like copper and nickel will rise this year too, which bodes well for Anglo.

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💬 Quote of the day

“There are occasions when it is undoubtedly better to incur loss than to make gain.”

– Titus Maccius Plautus (a Roman playwright)
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