| This is not a drill | The ECB was right |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for March 16th in 3:14 minutes.

🎉 The results from last week’s flash quiz are in. Stocks were by far the most popular, with tech, biotech, and energy companies going down a treat – but gold, funds, and crypto got some love too. Take a look at our Packs on each of those markets in the Finimize app, and discover how to find the perfect opportunity even in a downturn.

Today's big stories

  1. Stock market unrest means “volatility” is at highs not seen since 2008
  2. Our analysts look at the winners and losers in a WFH world – and find that Slack seems set for the latter camp – Read Now
  3. The low rate of inflation in Germany, France, and Spain may have vindicated the European Central Bank’s decision not to cut eurozone interest rates
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Ups And Downs

Ups And Downs

What’s Going On Here?

Coronavirus-stricken global stocks dramatically dropped, jumped, dropped, and jumped again last week: in other words, “volatility” was high – its highest since the 2008 financial crisis (tweet this).

What Does This Mean?

The Volatility Index (VIX) – often referred to as the stock market’s “fear gauge” – shows the price investors are paying for options, which are a popular way to protect their stocks from losses. The VIX has ticked along at an average value of 18 over the last 15 years, but that number spiked to 72 on Thursday – close to the peak of 90 it reached during the 2008 crash.

Stocks tend to rise in slow waves and fall in rapid zigzags, which is why selloffs are often accompanied by volatility. And just as they might a stock or bond, traders can take advantage by buying and selling that volatility for a potential profit – which is why those who bought last month are now sitting on massive returns.

Why Should I Care?

For you personally: Gauge your own fear.
Buying the VIX is tricky. Fund managers use futures contracts to bet on the index’s direction, but retail investors don’t always have the privilege: brokers mightn’t let them invest in leveraged assets where losses can mount quickly. It’s simpler to buy into the VXX exchange-traded fund (ETF) instead. A word of caution, though: when the futures contracts the ETF invests in expire, it reinvests funds into new contracts that are typically more expensive than the VIX’s current value. This “rolling over” of futures makes the VXX an investment which loses value over time even if the VIX stays flat.

For markets: Uncharted waters?
The VIX’s closing level was the fourth-highest ever on Thursday. The index has never hit such an extreme without US stocks rebounding at least 10% over the next day or two, according to DataTrek Research. But if Friday’s initial bounce doesn’t carry on into Monday, “we are truly in uncharted waters”...

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2/3 Premium

Slack’s Stock Slumps

The US stock market may have ended a wild week on a positive note – but messaging service Slack saw its share price fall 20% on Friday after it DMed investors a disappointing financial forecast. And cryptocurrencies didn’t fare much better…

Get the full story in the Finimize app

SPONSORED BY KLARNA

🚧 Caution: renting

With property prices soaring, renting’s become the status quo for the younger generation. And while it’s never been easier to find properties to live in and people to live with, there are some important things to look out for when renting – like, say, your roommates’ bad credit scores.

Well, we didn’t say it was easy to find good roommates.

Your home is where you spend a large chunk of your time, so it’s a pretty important thing to get right. Learn how to spot rental red flags in the seventh blog of our eight-part guide, created for Klarna’s Mindful Money initiative.

Read our guide
3/3

Nailed It

Nailed It

What’s Going On Here?

The European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) decision not to cut eurozone interest rates last week might’ve been proved right: data on Friday showed that the rate at which prices of goods and services rose in its major economies last month still hasn’t picked up.

What Does This Mean?

Inflation was 1.7% in Germany, 1.4% in France, and 0.7% in Spain versus the same time last year – a slowdown from January. That’s below the ECB’s previous target of 2% for the eurozone as a whole, even though record low interest rates should help pump cash from banks into the economy and encourage spending (which would in turn boost the prices of desirable products). But that target might soon fall in any case: after several years of low rates and low inflation, the ECB decided in January to begin its first review of its policies since 2003 – including its inflation target.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Central bank done good.
When inflation’s high, companies sell products at higher prices, which feeds through to higher earnings and increased economic output. It makes sense, then, that the ECB didn’t lower rates further last week: the central bank doesn’t have a great track record of spurring inflation, but it has been effective at reducing commercial banks’ interest income, thereby crimping their profits. Instead, it’s those very banks the ECB’s measures were aimed at, in order to help them better support the region’s coronavirus-bruised businesses.

For markets: Climate change.
Low inflation typically makes bonds more attractive to investors, since the fixed amount they pay doesn’t lose value as quickly as when inflation’s high. Investors selling stocks normally opt to buy into the relative safety of bonds too, which usually causes their prices to move inversely. That counterbalancing effect is key to a balanced portfolio. But last week, stock and bond prices fell at the same time, worrying investors who’d built "all-weather portfolios" that should perform well no matter what. Emphasis on “should”...

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💬 Quote of the day

“A lost battle is a battle one thinks one has lost.”

– Ferdinand Foch (a French general and military theorist)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Feeling Faint

“How can cheap oil prices lead to deflation?”

– Keaton in Cape Town, South Africa

“Oil’s a major constituent of plastic, which is used in everything from sneakers to toys. So if it suddenly becomes cheaper to produce those products, retailers – hit by weakening consumer demand and looking to entice shoppers – might be tempted to pass on their lower costs by way of lower prices. But if, say, Mattel were to lower its prices, rival toymaker Hasbro is likely to do the same or risk losing out on sales. The resultant product price cuts and counter-cuts across multiple industries could mean aggregate prices are lower than the same time a year ago – a.k.a. deflation.”

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SPONSORED BY KLARNA

Renting 101 📕

Renting: it’s just another one of those things you do without really thinking about it. Everybody else seems to have it worked out, after all…

But choosing a place to live is about more than just “location, location, location”. There are all sorts of things you should know about tenant life – including what your rights are. And since rent is one of your biggest expenses, you’ll want to make sure you’re getting what you need in return for all that cash.

So we’ve partnered with Klarna to bring you a rundown of the patterns and pitfalls you need to look for when you’re looking to rent. You’ll find it all in the seventh installment in our eight-part guide, created for Klarna’s Mindful Money initiative.

Read our guide

📚 What we're reading

  • Deal with coronavirus like the 1% (The Guardian)
  • Enough coronavirus: let’s talk air guitar (Mel)
  • How to make a goal actually stick (Inverse)
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