Good morning from Strasbourg, 

Before the end of the day, Ursula von der Leyen will know whether she will remain in the European Union’s top job for the next five years- and she has every reason to be confident.

If the next few hours unfold as expected after a few intense days of presentation and negotiation in Strasbourg, a majority in the newly elected European Parliament should vote for her.

In short, von der Leyen's second term as Commission President is just one compromise speech away, and every word counts.

However, some potential obstacles remain that could hinder von der Leyen's path to the Berlaymont, including one that seems particularly impossible to overcome.

How can both Greens and Conservatives be satisfied with the fate of combustion engines? How can she unite the Spanish left and the German right on Gaza? How can she be tough on migration and convince even the hard-right ECR without losing the Socialists and Greens?

Von der Leyen doesn’t have the option of avoiding clarity by sounding mysterious or evasive on the most sensitive matters, at the risk of sounding weak before even starting.

Her campaign is focused on strengthening her leadership, according to the accounts of those who attended her closed-door presentations to different political families in recent days. 

They expect Von der Leyen 2.0 to appear rather pragmatic today, delivering more or less a campaign speech, as they described it to Euractiv reporters in Strasbourg.

Partly, she can rely on the well-understood self-interest of other parties, as they all have something to lose by not voting for her and provoking the ire of the EPP. 

The Liberals could lose their top job - Estonia's former prime minister Kaja Kallas who recently resigned in anticipation of her new role - the Italian ECR members, the vice-presidency in the Commission, and the Greens of any influence they have left.

But the negotiations are not over and the multiplayer chess game continues. 

Von der Leyen is already preparing for the next round: the composition of the next Commission. Member states have communicated their preferences to her, and most of them have given names. 

As pressure mounts in Strasbourg ahead of Ursula von der Leyen's speech and the subsequent vote, the race for seats on the most high-profile committees continues, with some surprises in store.

Draft committee agreements of the largest political groups in the European Parliament, seen by Euractiv, show that some heavyweight lawmakers have surprisingly secured only substitute status for seats in the environment (ENVI) and industry (ITRE) committees. Donagh Cagney has the story.

For now, the mood in Strasbourg is one of expectation, with the various political groups waiting to see what von der Leyen will say in her speech after spending long weeks promising much to many. 

Despite the German candidate's strategic moves, some MEPs are expected to make their choice at the last minute: in the ECR group, Meloni keeps her cards close to her chest, and some national delegations, such as the Czech Republic, remain largely unpredictable.

Overall, it seems that yesterday’s ruling from the General Court of the European Union that stated that the European Commission was wrong to restrict citizens' access to COVID-19 vaccine purchase contracts was not at the heart of the discussions in Strasbourg on the eve of the decisive day. 

Meanwhile, the few people still in the EU bubble in Brussels are set to turn their gaze to the UK. 

Some 50 European leaders will gather at the illustrious Blenheim Castle—on the estate of the late Winston Churchill—under the auspices of a European political community that some argue is struggling to justify its existence.

In other news from across the Channel, following the Labour Party’s victory during the snap elections earlier this month,  King Charles set out the new government's priorities in his speech in the House of Lords, with a focus on "resetting the relationship" with the EU, Ana Brunetti reports.

In terms of policy, the King has even made the tech industry salivate with the confirmation that legislation to regulate artificial intelligence will be introduced under the UK's new Labour government.

BERLIN

German industry expects marginal benefits from new government growth package. German industry association BDI expects only “marginal” growth effects from an economic package adopted by the country’s coalition government on Wednesday, including tax incentives to encourage foreign workers, bureaucracy reduction, trade deals plans and tweaks to existing EU measures. Read more.

TALLINN | VILNIUS

Baltic countries close their borders to Belarus-registered cars. Estonia and Lithuania said on Wednesday they would no longer allow Belarus-registered cars to enter through checkpoints on their borders with Russia or Belarus, citing European Union sanctions against the country. Read more.

MADRID

Spanish PM proposes media transparency law as right-wing decry censorship. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (PSOE/S&D) on Wednesday proposed a “democratic regeneration” plan that he said would improve media transparency and shed more light on media ownership and funding. Read more. 

Exiled Spanish MEP-elect questions Metsola’s democratic legitimacy. Toni Comín, MEP-elect in exile of the Catalan separatist JxCat party, is questioning the democratic legitimacy of European Parliament President, Roberta Metsola, accusing her of being influenced by Spain’s Partido Popular (PP/EPP), after his seat was left vacant due to non-compliance with Spanish legal formalities, prompting him to file a complaint with the Court of Justice of the European Union. Read more.

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ROME

Meloni expects Green Deal ‘change of course’ from von der Leyen. Ahead of the European Parliament’s vote on Ursula von der Leyen’s bid to lead the Commission for another five years, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is keeping her cards close to her chest but will listen carefully to what von der Leyen says about the Green Deal in her parliamentary address. Read more.

BRATISLAVA

Slovakia's climate and energy strategy delayed, targets higher gas usage. Slovakia falls behind in submitting its finalised national plan for emissions reduction by 2030, which now includes doubling the natural gas share in central heating systems and lacks a clear timetable for reducing fossil fuel use, raising concerns amongst environmentalists. Read more.

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WARSAW

Polish MEP sues Poland to ECHR, accuses of torture. New hard-right Polish MEP Mariusz Kamiński announced he would sue Poland to the European Parliament, saying he was tortured in jail after being sentenced for office abuse. Read more. 

SOFIA

Pro-European coalition seeks quick consensus on anti-corruption reform in Bulgaria. The pro-European coalition We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB / Renew Europe - EPP) is seeking agreements to implement anti-corruption reforms in the country before starting negotiations to elect a regular government, despite the slim chances of reaching a deal. Read more.

• EU: European Political Community meeting in Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom aims to foster political dialogue and cooperation to strengthen security, stability and prosperity of the European continent;
• Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers statement for second term candidacy at Parliament Plenary Session;

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[Edited by Charles Szumski, Daniel Eck, Alice Taylor]