| | Wednesday, June 19, 2024 | We'll get to our typical Fantasy-focused newsletter shortly, but before we do, I just want to take a minute to write about the passing of Willie Mays Tuesday. | If you know anything about baseball history, you know about all about Mays. How could you not? He's one of those legendary players who somehow did justice to the legends. He was the platonic ideal of the five-tool player, leading the majors, at various points, in batting average, homers, and steals, while also winning 12 Gold Gloves, tied for the most ever for an outfielder … and they didn't even give out the award until his sixth season. He once shared an outfield for one glorious winter with Roberto Clemente (who also won 12 Gold Gloves) with los Cangrejeros de Santurce in Puerto Rico, and that would have been the greatest outfield in baseball history if they had me in left field. | Mays retired with 660 homers and probably would have beaten Hank Aaron to Babe Ruth's all-time record by a couple of seasons if not for the fact that he basically missed two seasons due to military service. He was arguably the best player in the history of the game; he was Mike Trout and Ken Griffey Jr. without the injury problems, only he was even better than either, somehow. He was Barry Bonds if Barry Bonds was the best defensive player in history. He was peerless. | MLB has a special event planned for Thursday at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama, and it was always intended to be, in part, a celebration of Mays, who grew up nearby and made his debut as a professional playing there for the Birmingham Black Barons of the Negro Leagues – he said the field "felt like it had been there forever. Like a church ." Mays was hoping to be able to attend the game, and when he released a statement earlier this week announcing he wouldn't be able to be there, he had this to say: | "I'm glad the Giants, Cardinals, and MLB are doing this, letting everyone get to see pro ball at Rickwood Field. Good to remind people of all the great ball that has been played there, and all the players. All these years and it is still there. So am I. How about that?" | Willie's memory will certainly be there, and it will be there in every ballpark where baseball is played for all time. There has never been a better player than Willie Mays, and while he may one day be equaled – may – he'll never be topped, or forgotten. | | Wednesday's top waiver targets | | Frank Stampfl said something interesting on Tuesday's edition of Fantasy Baseball Today when he said that he was experiencing something like "prospect fatigue" with young hitters who have gotten called up this season. We've hyped them up every time and, almost without fail, they've let us down. Rookies as a whole are sporting just an 83 wRC+ throughout major-league baseball, matching the worst mark for a season since 2014, and guys like Evan Carter, Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio, and Wyatt Langford are just the most high-profile of what has been a league-wide trend. | I have my theories as to why hitters specifically are struggling so much with the jump to the majors – inconsistency with the strike zone, with the minors alternating between an automatic ball/strike system and a challenge system while the majors still use full-time human umpires certainly can't be making things easier for young hitters – but I don't think their struggles should cause us to just totally ignore prospect call-ups. We just have to keep things in perspective. | That feels especially true for Blue Jays shortstop Orelvis Martinez, who is expected to get the call Wednesday to replace an injured Bo Bichette . Martinez has hit .260/.343/.523 in Triple-A this season, with 16 homers in 63 games. Martinez has legitimate power, with a max exit velocity of 115.2 mph and an average of 90, impressive marks for any minor-leaguer, let alone a 22-year-old. However, he's also struck out 24% of the time and has no steals, so there's a lot of pressure on the power to play up – in a home park that has been tough for hitters over the past few seasons. | That might be asking too much from Martinez, though he really does have rare power – you don't see many seasons of 28 or more homers from minor-leaguers, given the shorter schedules, and Martinez has done it in each of his three prior professional seasons. Still, I'm going to suggest him as a pickup for at least 12-team Roto leagues, just in case he's one of the rare ones who hits the ground running. I'm hoping for a similar impact as we've gotten from Andy Pages of the Dodgers, perhaps with a bit better than his current 21-homer pace. | There's a pretty good chance Martinez gets sent back down to Triple-A in a few weeks when Bichette is healthy enough to return. But there's a chance he's also an immediate plus in the power categories, and I'm willing to bet on that, even if I'm less willing to blow my FAB budget than I might have been earlier in the season. | | Ben Rice, C, Yankees (17%) – If Rice wasn't catcher eligible on CBS Fantasy, I'm not sure I'd be interested in him at all. Instead, I think he's basically someone you should consider in all two-catcher leagues. He's put up some eye-popping numbers in the minors, hitting .284/.397/.523 in his career, but he's done that while being old for basically every level; he's 25 and just made his debut at Triple-A a few weeks ago. As a 1B, where he is likely to play for the Yankees, I'd be taking a wait-and-see approach on waivers. But with catcher eligibility, the bar is a lot lower – Korey Lee is a top-24 catcher while hitting .241/.275/.382 this season. You just don't have to be very good to matter at this position, and Rice, as a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium, very well may be good enough to clear that low bar. | Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Braves (24%) – This is really the first time we've seen strikeout upside from Schwellenbach, who had just a 17.6% strikeout rate in his first three starts. He took advantage of a good matchup with the Tigers to strike out seven in six innings of work, while racking up 18 swinging strikes in this one, left by his cutter and slider. I don't think Schwellenbach necessarily has huge upside, but at least we got a glimpse of some Tuesday. | Chad Green, RP, Blue Jays (12%) – This one is fairly straightforward: As long as Jordan Romano is on the IL, Chad Green looks like he's going to save games for the Blue Jays with Yimi Garcia on the IL. Green has mostly been a very good pitcher over the years – 3.18 career ERA – but he's had trouble staying healthy lately. That's a reason to be skeptical of his long-term appeal, but if you can get a few saves out of him for now, that's pretty useful. | Keegan Thompson, RP, Cubs (0%) – I wrote yesterday about how messy the Cubs bullpen is, and then Thompson went out and looked dominant in getting the save Tuesday against the Giants. He struck out the side in this one and has at least shown strikeout upside this season, with 23 in 14.2 innings. I think we probably need at least one more Hector Neris blow-up for the Cubs to turn things over to Thompson, but if you want to get ahead of that, Thompson is a viable stash in deeper leagues. | Jonathan Cannon, SP, White Sox (8%) – That's two excellent starts in a row for Cannon, who has now allowed just one run in 15.2 innings in that span. That's only come with 11 strikeouts after he had just four Tuesday, and Cannon's minor-league career doesn't necessarily support much strikeout upside – in 166 career innings prior to getting to the majors, he had just 145 strikeouts. I'm skeptical there's much here for 12-team leagues, but if you want to take a flier based on his recent success just in case Cannon has unlocked something the way a few other White Sox pitchers have this season, that seems reasonable. | | News and Notes | Bo Bichette was placed on the IL with a right calf strain, retroactive to June 15. Martinez will be promoted to replace him. | Max Scherzer will make his season debut Saturday against the Royals. He had offseason back surgery and then battled thumb/forearm injuries throughout his rehab, so I'm skeptical he'll make much of an impact. That being said, I'm excited to see him back on the mound and hope I'm wrong about that one. | Justin Verlander was placed on the IL with neck discomfort, retroactive to June 16. Hopefully, this isn't a lengthy absence, but this always felt like a possibility after we learned about the injury this weekend. | | Mike Trout's recovery from meniscus surgery has gone slower than expected and he remained without an official timetable to return. Which is … concerning. | Jordan Westburg left early Tuesday due to left hip discomfort. He had a collision with Juan Soto between second and third base. | William Contreras returned to the lineup Tuesday after missing one game following a collision at home plate on Sunday. | Anthony Rizzo was officially placed on the IL with a right forearm fracture. He'll be shut down from all activities for five weeks, which means he'll likely miss eight weeks of game time. | Wilyer Abreu started a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday. He is 57% rostered and was having a pretty good season before going on the IL: .272 with six HR, seven SB. Abreu is worth adding in category leagues if he was dropped, but remember, he wasn't really playing against lefties, so the ceiling is limited. | David Hamilton was out of the lineup after leaving Monday with left side discomfort but he came on as a pinch-runner and picked up his 19th steal. | Ty France was activated from the IL but, interestingly, Tyler Locklear was not optioned back to the minors. Instead, it was catcher Seby Zavala who was designated for assignment. We could continue to see more of Mitch Garver at catcher if Locklear hits, which might not be the best thing for Garver's Fantasy value if he loses DH at-bats. | Kyle Manzardo was optioned back to Triple-A. He was batting just .207 with zero homers and a .571 OPS in 30 games. Yet another top-hitting prospect who struggled his first go-around. | Yoan Moncada is expected to return around the All-Star break. He suffered an adductor strain back in early May. | Nationals top prospect James Wood was activated from the 7-day IL at Triple-A. He was batting .355 with 9 HR, 10 SB, and a 1.061 OPS before the injury, and if he picks up where he left off, it might not be long before he's up in the bigs. | Monday's standouts | Pablo Lopez, Twins vs. TB: 4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – The talent is still there. The execution isn't. I know you're frustrated by Lopez's 5.63 ERA, but if you've opened this email expecting me to tell you to drop him, you've opened the wrong fella's email. I still think Lopez is a very good pitcher, just like I still thought Sandy Alcantara, Freddy Peralta, and Zack Wheeler were still good pitchers when they had ERAs that started with a four last year. "But Chris, Pablo's ERA starts with a five!" Yeah, that's worse. I understand your frustration. But the worst thing you could do right now after eating all those bad starts is to drop or trade Lopez at his lowest value and rule out the possibility of the inevitable run he's sure to go on to help your team. | Justin Steele, Cubs vs. SF: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – That's a 1.14 ERA over the past five starts for Steele, who looks more or less like we expected him to despite a rocky start. I know some of you think he can't keep getting away with it, but his bounceback has me convinced that Steele really is just this good. | Bryce Miller, Mariners @CLE: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – There just isn't anything here consistently besides the fastball. Miller didn't get a single swing and miss with his non-four-seamer pitches Tuesday and managed just two measly called strikes on his non-fastballs overall Tuesday. Miller has put in the work to develop his splitter and his breaking pitches, but none of it has fundamentally changed the equation here. He's a one-pitch pitcher, and man can not feast on fastballs alone. His 4.03 xERA is more indicative of Miller's true talent level, unfortunately. | Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays vs. BOS: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – When a pitcher has a track record as long as Bassitt's, I think we can say he has earned the benefit of the doubt. He struggled in April for the second year in a row, putting up a 5.33 ERA and 1.89 WHIP, and yet here we are in late June and Bassitt is sitting pretty with a 3.52 ERA. He's not an ace, but he deserves more respect than some of us give him every year. | Nestor Cortes , Yankees vs. BAL: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Cortes had his best velocity of the season, and it helped lead to one of his most impressive starts of the season against a very tough matchup. If Cortes can sustain anything like his 93 mph fastball velocity from Tuesday, that could potentially be huge, though it's worth noting he had just eight whiffs on 105 pitches Tuesday, so it wasn't a dominant start from that perspective. Cortes has never really been an elite whiff guy even when he was posting strong strikeout rates the past couple of seasons, but he continues to do an excellent job limiting hard contact and free passes, and the strikeout rate has trended up as the season has gone on. I think he's a rock-solid starter. | Michael King, Padres @PHI: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – King was starting to make me feel a bit dumb about my skepticism in recent starts, but he still leaves something to be desired. King isn't a bad pitcher, but he is an inefficient one, finishing six innings just once in his past five starts. There's some strikeout upside here, especially when his changeup is on, but on a start-to-start basis, he feels pretty middling. He's a fringe starter in my eyes outside of H2H points leagues. | Walker Buehler, Dodgers @COL: 4 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – Given how he has pitched this season, nobody should be surprised that Buehler struggled at Coors Field. And, honestly, the fact that the Dodgers talked about possibly putting Buehler on the IL to try to let him work out his issues under less scrutiny actually seems like a positive sign to me, if only because it's probably easier to stash him in an IL spot than taking up a valuable bench spot. I really don't want to drop Buehler in case he can somehow rediscover something like his former Cy Young form, but there's nothing to be optimistic about right now. Buehler had just three swinging strikes on 70 pitches Tuesday. Gross. | Luis Severino, Mets @TEX: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – The approach with Severino this season has always been clear: It was fine to ride him when things were going well, but you should have always expected the time to come when things would no longer be going well. He just doesn't have the strikeout stuff he used to, and while he deserves credit for rediscovering himself as a groundballer, it necessarily means he doesn't have the kind of upside he once did. I'm not saying you have to drop Severino right now, but with a FIP over 4.00, you certainly can if you see someone more interesting on the wire. | Jake Irvin , Nationals vs. ARI: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – Irvin just didn't have it today, and this is probably a good excuse to go ahead and bench him for his next start if you still can; it's at Coors Field after all. Note that I didn't say "cut Jake Irvin" there, because I don't necessarily think you should. I still think there's a lot to like about Irvin, but he's going to have trouble succeeding if he's having trouble commanding his curveball like he did Tuesday. Command has been the key to Irvin's breakout here, and I think he can remain a solid, mid-3.00s ERA pitcher moving forward – at least after that next start in Coors. | Tobias Myers, Brewers @LAA: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – I tried to find reasons to buy into Myers' recent run, but I just don't see it. We're talking about a guy with a career 4.24 ERA, and that's been significantly worse in the high-minors; he has a 5.02 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in his career. And yet, three straight starts of six innings and no earned runs allowed. Against the Tigers, Jays, and Angels, so … yeah, I dunno. His fastball has good life, and the slider and changeup has been pretty good swing-and-miss pitches, so if you want to keep using him against good matchups, that might be fine. But I don't see much reason to think Myers is much more than a streamer in the long run. | Triston McKenzie, Guardians vs. SEA: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 0 K – Besides the fact that he was good in 2022, I don't see any reason for McKenzie to be anywhere near as highly rostered as he is right now at 78%. His velocity is way down and it's made his fastball an utter disaster, and he just doesn't have the arsenal to make up for it. McKenzie's slider and curveball have actually remained elite pitches, both sporting expected wOBAs below .210 and whiff rates over 35%, but he primarily relies on these pitches for chases, with his four-seamer setting everything up early in counts. That's a problem when that fastball is just getting crushed right now. He's lucky he only gave up one homer in this one, and should be dropped in pretty much all leagues. | Nick Castellanos, OF, Phillies – Castellanos has remained a batting average liability all season, but at least the power has been there after a cold start; he hit his ninth homer in 47 games since his first in late April. He's still hitting just .241 in that span, but with a 35-plus homer, 190-plus RBI-plus-runs pace, you can live with that. | Anthony Santander, OF, Orioles – Santander's early-season slump was neither as deep nor as long as Castellanos', but it's still nice to see him basically getting his numbers to where they should be. Santander hit his ninth homer in his 17th June game and is suddenly back on a 35-plus homer pace. I'm more or less back to where I was prior to the season on Castellanos and Santander. | Jesus Sanchez, OF, Marlins – Sanchez has never been able to live up to expectations, but he continues to do some pretty interesting things. He went 3 for 5 with a homer, two runs, and three RBI Tuesday and now has by far the best underlying metrics of his career – a 93.7 mph average exit velocity, 11.9% barrel rate, .282 expected batting average, and .490 expected slugging percentage. His actual numbers trail across the board, and the fact that the Marlins largely shield him from the toughest lefties might be making him look better than he actually is. But Sanchez has been known to get red hot for stretches, so I'm looking his way in deeper five outfielder leagues just in case this is one of those stretches. | | | | | | | | More BIG3 on CBS! Watch as the Ghost Ballers vs. Enemies at 1 PM ET followed by Tri State vs. Trilogy this Saturday on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live | | SailGP glides along the shores of New York City this Saturday and Sunday at 4:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Also catch the race on Sunday at 12:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live |
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