| | | | Wednesday, May 29, 2024 | | Tuesday was a fun day of baseball around MLB, especially if you like pitching. That's kind of been the theme of this season so far – well, that and injuries, of course – and if it feels like there are more useful pitchers for Fantasy than roster spots for them, that problem might be even more acute after Tuesday. | | Because we had some really impressive pitching performances last night from a bunch of pitchers who are pretty widely available in Fantasy right now. So, that's going to be our initial focus in today's newsletter: Ranking the top five waiver wire pitchers from Tuesday night. We'll get to all the news you need to know about, plus some of the biggest performances – and we've even got a few hitters to consider adding – but we're starting with those waiver wire pitchers. Let's get to it: | | | | Wednesday's top waiver targets | | | | Ben Brown, SP, Cubs (16%) – We've seen fleeting hints of brilliance from Brown before, but Tuesday was on a whole other level. He made it through seven no-hit innings, striking out 10 and walking just two against the Brewers , and he's now got a 2.72 ERA with underlying stats that very much back it up. The problem with Brown is he's incredibly reliant on his curveball, which had accounted for 33 of his 45 strikeouts entering Tuesday and 10 of his 16 whiffs. It's a two-pitch mix almost exclusively, and the fastball has had a tendency to get hit hard, which is a tough needle to thread – and that's why his 4.76 xERA entering this start was the biggest exception to his otherwise very good peripheral stats. The upside Brown has shown makes him worth chasing, even if there's some blow up risk if the curveball isn't working in any given start. | | Matt Waldron, SP, Padres (20%) – "Just throw your best pitch more!" is easy to say sitting in a computer chair, and it might be more difficult for Waldron than most, given that his best pitch is the impossible-to-predict knuckleball. But if he can pull it off, it's clearly a pretty obvious path to success for Waldron, who threw it 55% of the time Tuesday and had the Marlins absolutely befuddled. The knuckler accounted for 11 of his 15 swinging strikes and just a 74.4 mph average exit velocity on eight balls in play, and wouldn't you know it, that's been by far his best pitch when it comes to both quality of contact suppression and whiffs. Can he go full R.A. Dickey/Tim Wakefield and throw the pitch almost exclusively? Honestly, I'd love to see him try. Even if he doesn't, Waldron now has a 1.96 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 23 innings over his past four starts, and it's worth buying in to see if this is for real. | | Hunter Brown, SP, Astros (40%) – It's going to take a long time for Brown's ERA to look presentable thanks to that nine-run-in-less-than-an-inning outing he had back in early April, but he's doing what he can. He limited the Mariners to just a single run over six innings Tuesday with nine strikeouts, finishing May with a 3.41 ERA, 29 strikeouts, and 11 walks in 26.1 innings of work. He's been de-emphasizing his cutter during that run and went away from his four-seamer Tuesday, too, throwing those pitches just 27% of the time total, instead leaning on his slider and splitter in this one, while also mixing in a new sinker a bit. I'm not sure the whole package is ever going to be much more than a fringe starting option for Fantasy, but the tinkering is interesting, at least. | | | | Tylor Megill, SP, Mets (22%) – There have been stretches where Megill has looked like he might matter for Fantasy, but it has usually fizzled out pretty quickly. What might be different this time? Well, the big thing is that his velocity is back up, as he averaged 95.8 mph with his four-seamer Tuesday in his nine-strikeout showing against the Dodgers . He has also continued to change up his pitch mix, adding a cutter and an improved splitter this season to his legitimate seven-pitch mix. Tuesday, it was mostly the fastball and slider that shined, accounting for five whiffs each and 10 of his 14 total; the cutter and splitter did generate some weak contact in this one, at least. Is that enough to make Megill someone we can trust for Fantasy? I think it's reasonable to be skeptical, but he does have 16 strikeouts to just three walks in 12 innings since coming back from a shoulder injury, and that's interesting enough to make him worth adding if you need a starter and the three ahead of him aren't available. | | Jake Irvin, SP, Nationals (19%) – I'd like to buy in on Irvin coming off a 10-strikeout showing against the Braves of all teams, but I just don't see it. He's got pinpoint command, but historically hasn't done much to limit hard contact or generate swings and misses – and even in this 10-strikeout showing he had merely a decent 13 whiffs on 90 pitches, not even a top-five mark among Tuesday's starters. In a different context – say, with a good supporting cast to give him a chance to win some games – I could see getting on board with Irvin, but I don't see much to get excited about here, especially on a night with so many other widely available pitchers thriving. | | Davis Schneider, 2B, Blue Jays (42%) – Despite his three hits Tuesday, you aren't looking to Schneider for batting average. He's hitting just .250 even in a very good month of May, because he strikes out too much and has to rely on pulling the ball consistently to generate power. That being said, Schneider has a good command of the strike zone, generates useful power, and has been given the green light to run more at the top of the lineup. It's a profile that should work in any format, and his multi-eligibility (2B and OF) means you should be able to find room for him in your lineup somewhere. | | Miguel Andujar, OF, Athletics (3%) – It's a long shot, but maybe Andujar still has something to offer. He has completely fallen off the map since he nearly won Rookie of the Year back in 2018, but he kept hitting at Triple-A all along, and has now caught on with an Athletics team that is desperate enough for talent that he hit cleanup Tuesday. Andujar went 1 for 4 with a homer, driving in three runs, and he's now 4 for 12 with five RBI in his first three games with the A's. I'm not expecting him to matter much outside of AL-only leagues, but weirder things have happened. | | | | News and Notes | | Francisco Lindor is dealing with a left index finger contusion he suffered on a bunt attempt. X-rays came back negative, so hopefully he won't be gone for more than a couple of days. | | Kodai Senga may not be ready to return until the All-Star break. He's had multiple setbacks in his recovery from a spring shoulder injury, and recently received a cortisone injection in his triceps. In non-IL leagues, I think you can at least consider dropping him. | | Evan Carter was placed on the IL with lower-back tightness. Travis Jankowski was in left field and Wyatt Langford made his return as the team's DH. Langford went 0-3 with a K in his return, but I still have a lot of hope that he'll figure things out. | | Max Scherzer will throw a full bullpen session Wednesday, his first time throwing off a mound since being shut down in early May. He's been dealing with a nerve problem in his throwing arm, but hopefully this can get him back on the right track. | | Trevor Megill was removed Tuesday after getting hit in the right arm by a line drive. I'd guess Joel Payamps will get saves for the Brewers if Megill has to miss time. | | Vinnie Pasquantino left Tuesday after he collided with Byron Buxton. X-rays on Vinnie P's lower left leg came back negative. | | Tyler O'Neill has been sent back to Boston to receive imaging on his sore right knee. He's missed three straight games. | | Bobby Miller will make his next minor-league rehab start Friday or Saturday and is scheduled to throw about four innings, indicating he's likely still a few weeks away from returning from that shoulder issue. | | Evan Phillips is on track to be activated from the IL on Friday and should return to the closer roll for the Dodgers. | | Francisco Alvarez will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A on Thursday. He's five weeks removed from undergoing surgery to repair a torn UCL in his left thumb, so it's fair to say he's ahead of schedule right now. I'm stashing him wherever I can. | | Nolan Jones took batting practice and could be nearing a second rehab stint in the minors as he continues to deal with a back injury. | | Rhys Hoskins ran on the field and could return early next week. He's been on the IL since May 14 with a strained right hamstring. | | Nathan Eovaldi was reinstated and started Tuesday vs. ARI. His velocity was up across his three innings, and that short start was planned for his return. | | Merrill Kelly is expected to begin a throwing program next week. He's been out since mid-April with a right shoulder strain. | | Lars Nootbaar returned to the Cardinals lineup after missing two games with a tweaked hamstring. | | LaMonte Wade was placed on the IL with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain. The Giants started Trenton Brooks at first base Tuesday. | | The Pirates placed both Martin Perez and Joey Bart on the IL, retroactive to May 27. Ke'Bryan Hayes was activated but the game was rained out. It doesn't sound like the Pirates are on the verge of calling Henry Davis up despite very good numbers at Triple-A, though I remain intrigued by his upside if they do. | | The Braves are expected to call up pitching prospect Spencer Schwellenbach to make his MLB debut against the Nationals Wednesday. The 23-year-old has a 1.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 51 K to just 10 BB over 45 IP this season and could be a priority add if he shines in his debut. | | Tuesday's standouts | | Max Fried , Braves vs. WAS: 8 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Through his first five starts of the season, Fried had just 12 strikeouts to nine walks in 16.1 innings, with a 5.09 FIP and 7.71 ERA. Which is to say, there was basically nothing to get excited about in his profile. Since then, he has two complete games, this eight-inning outing, plus two seven-inning starts, and now has a 1.43 ERA in his past seven starts. In fact, we don't even have to a "past X starts" thing anymore – he has a 2.97 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for the season. He's been exactly who you drafted him to be, and as it turns out, those five starts to open the season just didn't matter at all. There's a lesson here for those of you who insist on overreacting to small sample sizes. | | Cole Ragans, Royals @MIN: 5 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – One interesting thing about Ragans' season is how little he's gotten from his slider so far. He threw it just eight times Tuesday without a whiff, and it's been his least-used pitch overall, with his lowest whiff rate. That was a big part of his second-half ascension last year, and it's worth considering the possibility he could unlock another level if he rediscovers that pitch; if he doesn't, he's still a top-20 pitcher. | | Freddy Peralta, Brewers vs. CHC: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K – It's been a bit of an up-and-down season for Peralta, but I think that's mostly just who he is. At his best, he looks like an ace, and he'll certainly give you ace-level strikeout numbers. But he also has a tendency to give up more runs than you'd expect, and the Brewers haven't exactly been a great spot for wins this season. He's a terrific option, but probably stretched as the ace of your staff. | | Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays @CHW: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Gausman still isn't quite right, as the three whiffs on his splitter Tuesday will attest. On the other hand, he finished May with 33 strikeouts to 26.1 innings and a 3.76 ERA, which is pretty good for someone who "isn't quite right." Whether he'll get there remains to be seen, but I'm certainly betting on him being better than he has been moving forward. | | Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles vs. BOS: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – I sound like a broken record on Rodriguez, but I still just don't know why he isn't better than this. It just feels like all the constituent parts don't quite add up to what they should, which probably just comes down to an execution thing. The stuff is clearly good enough, and he has solid-to-great whiff rates on all of his pitches, so when it clicks, I still think there is ace-level upside. I just wish I could be more confident he was going to reach that ceiling right now. | | Zack Littell, Rays vs. OAK: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Littell is still available in about 20% of CBS Fantasy leagues, and I honestly don't get it. He's posted solid strikeout rates and elite control while limiting hard contact well, so what's up with the skepticism? Is he an ace? Probably not. But given how easily the Fantasy community has overhyped any pitcher in a Rays uniform in recent years, I'm surprised Littell hasn't garnered more excitement. He looks like a low-to-mid-3.00s ERA guy who should have a very good WHIP, and I'd bet on him winning more than two of every 11 starts moving forward. | | Andrew Abbott, Reds vs. STL: 6 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – I get hanging on to Abbott when things were going well, but if you're looking for a pitcher to drop, he's your guy after this start. The problem is, he just isn't getting any strikeouts at all, with his season-long rate sitting below 20%. He's thrived on good control and a ton of weak contact, but I don't buy that continuing, especially not in this ballpark. We're going to see more starts like this moving forward. | | | | | | | | We Need To Talk | | The Golazo Network | Tina Cervasio, Susannah Collins, Jenny Chiu and Sarah Kustok host a soccer-themed edition of WE NEED TO TALK, highlighting the impact of youth soccer in the U.S. and the opportunities it creates for women, this Saturday at 12:30 PM ET.
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