Walmart had a strong quarter and a weak outlook | The eurozone perked up |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for February 22nd in 3:05 minutes.

šŸ¤© Warren Buffett thinks you should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. So join 7investingā€™s Simon Erickson for Do Recessions Have A Silver Lining? on March 8th, and find out why todayā€™s hair-raising markets could have savvy investors working up an appetite. Get your free ticket

Today's big stories

  1. Walmartā€™s cautious outlook made investors forget its bumper results
  2. Hereā€™s where Buffett, Soros, and Elliott have been investing ā€“ Read Now
  3. Eurozone business activity went from strength to strength this month

The Best Is Behind

The Best Is Behind

Whatā€™s Going On Here?

Walmart reported strong quarterly results on Tuesday, but it was the firmā€™s unpromising outlook that grabbed investorsā€™ attention.

What Does This Mean?

The world was in a funk last quarter, but Walmart soldiered on. See, shoppers might have been shunning nice-to-haves like electronic goods, but the firmā€™s grocery offerings kept the aisles full of customers. And with the retail colossus cutting prices in a bid to sell off last yearā€™s overstocked inventory, those bargains didn't just bring people through the doors: they had those doors practically swinging off the hinges. All in all, sales at US stores open longer than a year grew by 8%, which helped overall revenue and profit sail past expectations. Mind you, investors still ditched their shares initially when they caught wind of Walmartā€™s outlook: that underwhelming forecast suggested that annual profit could fall for the second year in a row.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Imperiled profit.
Those worries could be well-founded. Last quarter's sales were propped up by low-margin merchandise like groceries and discounted goods, which could explain why profitability took a dip. What's more, consumer savings rates are currently hovering at around half their pre-pandemic levels, meaning that customers probably wonā€™t start splashing the cash anytime soon. Add in price hikes from Walmart's suppliers, and itā€™s no surprise the firm thinks its profit margins could be in danger.

The bigger picture: Retailā€™s reeling.
Walmartā€™s expecting trouble, and Home Depot already has it in spades. On Tuesday the firm announced that it missed sales expectations for the first time since the pandemic last quarter, and predicted that its sales wonā€™t grow at all in 2023. Putting the forecasts of the two titans together, it doesnā€™t take a genius to work out that retail as a whole could be a little shaky this year ā€“ which might be why an index tracking some of the biggest companies in the retail space fell when the news broke.

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Analyst Take

You Might Be Going All-In On Stocks, But Buffett, Soros, And Elliott Havenā€™t Been

You Might Be Going All-In On Stocks, But Buffett, Soros, And Elliott Havenā€™t Been

By Russell Burns, Analyst

Retail investors have been diving headlong into stocks this year.

But with as many signals pointing up as down in the market, you might be tempted to break from the pack and spread your money around to other assets.

I took a look at what Elliott Investment Management, Soros Fund Management, and Warren Buffettā€™s Berkshire Hathaway have been doing ā€“ and it turned out that retail investors could learn a lot from those big playersā€™ strategies.

Thatā€™s todayā€™s Insight: where these three investment giants have been putting their money.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Eurozoom

Eurozoom

Whatā€™s Going On Here?

Data out on Tuesday showed that eurozone business activity sped forward this month.

What Does This Mean?

Turns out the beleaguered eurozone ā€“ which borders war-torn Ukraine and was recently smacked by an energy crisis ā€“ is actually doing pretty well for itself. At any rate, thatā€™s what was found by a monthly survey asking purchasing managers how business has been. By their account, business activity has grown at the greatest rate in nine months, whizzing past economistsā€™ expectations to post the second-straight month of growth. That bumper performance was solely down to the services sector, which clocked up its best performance since June and offset a slight slowdown in manufacturing as factory activity dropped off.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Growing, growing, gone.
This data has got economists thinking the economy might grow this quarter, and itā€™s no surprise theyā€™re looking on the bright side: natural gas shortages donā€™t look likely right now, inflationā€™s currently on the ebb, and consumer confidence is at its highest in a year. But that good news could have some not-so-good effects, keeping the flames of inflation hotter for longer and prompting more hikes from the European Central Bank. That chimes with what Goldmanā€™s thinking: the firm revised its predictions earlier this week, betting that interest rates will peak at around 3.5% in June ā€“ not 3.25%.

Zooming out: Pricey permits.
The improving economic outlook meant that the price of European pollution permits rose to over ā‚¬100 ($107) for the first time ever on Tuesday. That means that the carbon credits ā€“ one of the mainstays of the regionā€™s net zero strategy ā€“ have risen fivefold in three years. And thatā€™s not really a shocker: tumbling gas prices have spurred industry on, and the specter of more stringent climate regulations has got businesses stockpiling permits, further buoying up prices.

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šŸŒ Finimize Live

šŸ„³ Coming Up This Weekā€¦

All events in UK time.

āœļø What Are Investment DAOs And How Do They Work?: 6pm, February 22nd

šŸ‘€ And After Thatā€¦

šŸ’ø How To Pick Winning Exchange-Traded Funds: 5pm, March 7th
šŸŒ„ Do Recessions Have A Silver Lining?: 5pm, March 8th
šŸŒŽ Three Ways Long-Term Investors Can Act On Climate Change: 12pm, March 21st
šŸš€ What Will Be The Next Big Thing In Artificial Intelligence?: 1pm, March 22nd

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