What’s going on here? Data out on Wednesday showed that British inflation stayed at 4% in January, eerily similar to December despite economists bracing for a jumpscare. What does this mean? Investors were caught off guard by sharp US inflation earlier this week, so they ramped up the pessimism ahead of the UK’s report and readied their “I told you so”s. But while economists and the Bank of England (BoE) expected prices to pick up faster in January than the month before, they actually rose at the same pace. That’s partly because services inflation – which tracks categories like education, culture, and hospitality to more accurately measure homegrown price pressures – came in at a slightly better-than-expected 6.5%. That has investors betting that the BoE will start cutting interest rates this summer. Mind you, they’ve hardly nailed their predictions this year. Why should I care? Zooming in: All the wage. The BoE needs to make sure Brits’ paychecks are flattening out before touching rates, though. That’s because companies tend to pass higher wage costs onto customers, pushing shoppers to demand more pay, in turn stoking up spending and inflation. So far, not so good: wages without bonuses were 6.2% higher in the last quarter of last year from the same time the year before, more than economists predicted. The bigger picture: The UK needs a rate break. Now that energy prices are slipping, the BoE expects inflation to hit the 2% target as early as spring. Problem is, the central bank reckons it’ll soon head back toward 3%, as the impact of cheaper energy wears off. But even then, inflation would be squat enough to justify lower rates. And while the UK economy is only expected to grow by 0.25% this year, more manageable rates should push that up to 0.75% for 2025. Not a lot, but Brits will take it. |