 | | Precipitation in the mountains of Colorado is a source of uncertainty for water availability in the Colorado River basin. Photo © J. Carl Ganter/Circle of Blue |
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| Colorado River Forecasts Not a ‘Crystal Ball’
Every month the Bureau of Reclamation attempts to peer two years into the future of the Colorado River and its reservoirs.
Typically nested in wonkish obscurity, Reclamation’s 24-month study acquired newfound public prominence in recent weeks. The August results are the most important of all the months because they determine how much water will be released in the following year from Lakes Mead and Powell. Because Mead is so low, the August results triggered the first-ever Tier 1 shortage on the lower Colorado River, a declaration that means mandatory cuts in water deliveries in 2022 to Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico. Because Powell is so low, dam managers will release a comparative trickle of water next year, so little that Mead is likely to plunge even lower.
More eyes than usual on a technical product that was designed to guide reservoir operations means more potential for misinterpretation, especially by people unfamiliar with the study and its assumptions. |
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 | | Damage from Hurricane Ida in Houma, Louisiana. Photo via NOAA |
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| Hurricane Ida Damages Louisiana Water Systems, Cuts Water Service
While people in Jefferson Parish, just west of New Orleans, queued for hours in the heat and humidity on Wednesday to pick up bottled water and packaged meals, the destruction that Hurricane Ida delivered to Louisiana’s eastern parishes was becoming clearer. The Category 4 hurricane made landfall on August 29 as one of the strongest storms to hit the United States. Days later, local and state officials have begun to tally the extensive damage. Water systems are dealing with severed pipes, broken treatment units, and power outages. In New Orleans, the Sewerage and Water Board is asking residents to conserve water to prevent sewage backups. In smaller towns the problem is no water at all. |
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| HotSpots H2O: Flash Floods and Landslides Devastate Western Venezuela
Torrential rain fell relentlessly this past week in western Venezuela, producing floods that destroyed over 1,200 buildings and displaced thousands of people. As of Sunday, dozens of residents are still missing, and at least 20 have died. A state of emergency was declared in nine western and northwestern provinces, and more than 55,000 residents remain without electricity.
Images shared on social media show desperate scenes in towns and cities. Boulders swept into streets, cars sitting half-buried in caking mud, mudslide debris filling businesses, and floodwaters ruining homes. Streams of sewage, rain, and overflowing creeks still trickle through massive piles of rubble. Some roads and highways have been shut down, forcing navy boats to evacuate families via the coasts. Helicopters, in many cases, are required to deliver humanitarian aid. |
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| What’s Up With Water – August 30, 2021
For the news you need to start the week, tune into “What’s Up With Water” fresh on Monday’s on iTunes, Spotify, iHeart Radio, and SoundCloud. Featured coverage from this week's episode of What's Up With Water looks at: - In Egypt, the government’s investment fund is looking for private partners to build seawater desalination plants powered by renewable energy.
- In Canada, nuclear industry officials are surveying an area near Lake Huron as a potential underground storage site for nuclear waste.
- In extreme weather news, new research finds that climate change is behind the intensity of deadly storms that hit Germany and Belgium last month.
This week, Circle of Blue reports on the connections between severe weather, climate change, and the movement of people. |
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| From Circle of Blue's Archives: |
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 | | Water managers must use more sophisticated analysis as they plan for the uncertainty of the 21st century, argues a new scientific society. Photo © J. Carl Ganter / Circle of Blue |
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The old ecological and political order is crumbling.
To navigate the peril, managers need to understand the concept of “deep uncertainty,” argues Robert Lempert, the president of the Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty, whose mission is to help leaders make better decisions for water, energy, and food systems in a time of rapid environmental and social change. Uncertainty implies that managers know the potential outcomes of their actions and the probability that they occur. Think of flipping a coin. The result of any particular toss is unknown — but the potential outcomes and the probabilities are not. Fifty percent chance of heads, fifty percent chance of tails. Deep uncertainty acknowledges a dynamic system where inputs — such as rainfall or economic growth or regulations — are changing or unknown. Water utility plans, for instance. These documents often look decades ahead. Actions today — building a desalination plant or increasing the size of a reservoir — will resonate for a generation or more. The deep uncertainty method is about planning for multiple possible futures and finding comfort in complex decisions that may need to be revised. |
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