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Market focus has shifted to demand
Corn: We anticipate a 61-million-bu. reduction in crop size from USDA’s November estimate on a 0.7-bu. drop in yield and a fractional change in harvested acres. While crop size ultimately may be smaller than we have plugged into our balance sheet, we may never fully know the size of the 2019 corn crop — unless USDA breaks tendency and revises it next September. USDA has said a September 2020 revision to this year’s corn crop is possible. But after the “final” crop estimate in January, we’ll make production changes in residual use.

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Soybeans: We expect USDA’s 2019 crop estimate to decline slightly in January after it left crop size virtually unchanged this month. Due to expectations for increased harvest loss amid the poor fall conditions, we shaved 0.2 bu. off USDA’s yield forecast, which trims crop size and total supplies by 15 million bushels. On the demand side of the 2019-20 balance sheet, we are slightly more optimistic than USDA on both crush and exports. We expect 30 million bu. more total use than USDA’s November projection. This would trim ending stocks to 430 million bu. — 45 million bu. less than USDA’s forecast. But at that level and with stocks-to-use still projected at 10.6%, we anticipate no change in cash price from the $9.00 average USDA forecast this month.

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