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| Wednesday, September 4, 2024 |
| There is an NFL game tomorrow! I got a start/sit question from former NBA center Brendan Haywood today. We are so back, baby! |
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| What a fun time this is. I had an absolute blast preparing today's newsletter, I only wish that I had more time to write about everything. I don't know how Rich Hribar does it. The legendary keyboard wizard of Sharp Football Analysis turns over literally every stone every week and somehow finds time to then write about it too. Hribar will be joining Dan and me to forecast Week 1 on Beyond the Boxscore, and you are not gonna wanna miss it! That conversation will be published on the FFT Express podcast feed on Thursday. |
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| If you want to support Dan and me, please subscribe to the FFT Express stream and leave a rating/review that mentions our show! There's already one episode live on the feed if you missed last week's recording with Matthew Berry and the Fantasy Life crew. |
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| Okay, before we dive in today, I want to let you know what you can expect in this space on Wednesdays. I'm going to be providing a deep dive into advanced matchup data that is pertinent to the upcoming NFL games, and you can use that information however you want. On Tuesdays (Fantasy rankings) and Thursdays (DFS Helper), I'll give you more directly actionable information. On Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, I'm not holding your hand. I have a lot of information that I can download for you, and I believe that it makes the most sense for me to put all of my energy into delivering as much of that info as possible rather than splitting my focus by attempting to pick out prop picks or whatever. I don't know what type of Fantasy gaming you like to get into. I do know about Chris Olave's splits vs. single-high safety coverages. |
| Here's an example of the type of information that we'll cover in this space: |
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| If your head is spinning already, no worries. We're not going to go that deep today. I'm going to do my best to ease us into this space. I know that not everyone is literate in specific coverage types. We'll get there. |
| Our typical Wednesday newsletter post will include: |
| The Battle Up Front -- Rush scheme data, offensive vs. defensive line matchup data, and front seven injury notes. Essentially, I'm going to put the battle between the big boys under a microscope to get an idea of which side may dictate the direction of the game. |
| Under Pressure -- How do certain quarterbacks perform when under pressure and how blitzes and pressures affect the target distribution. |
| This week, I'm pushing these two to Friday's newsletter. Typically, Friday will be an 'In The Lab' installment, an interactive newsletter post where I provide more detail on the topics of interest picked out by the FFT Newsletter readers. Today, we'll focus only on one specific type of matchup data: |
| Coverage Data -- Please help me come up with a cool name for this one. The emphasis is on which coverage types may dictate a change in target distribution. More zone-heavy schemes typically results in higher target rates for running backs, tight ends, and slot receivers. A more man-heavy and/or press-heavy matchup may lead to more opportunities for perimeter wide receivers. Some quarterbacks are better at reading certain coverages. I'll highlight which matchups stand out to me each week in this space. |
| Nico #Collinszn picks up right where it left off |
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| Collins and the Texans face a Colts defense that uses Cover-3 more than any other team. |
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| Cover-3 is a single-high zone coverage that typically results in higher target rates for opposing WR1s. |
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| You might notice that the top five performers vs. Cover-3 in 2023 were all perimeter field-stretching types. Tank Dell wasn't far behind Collins with a 2.85 yard per route run rate vs. Cover-3. Dell's target per route run rate vs. Cover-3 was identical (30%) to Collins, he just played fewer snaps. That will likely be the case in Week 1, as he was the Texan WR who came off of the field in two-receiver sets. When he's out there, Dell will probably cook. |
| CeeDee Lamb and Diontae Johnson get man-heavy matchups to kick off what could be huge 2024 statistical showings |
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| CeeDee Lamb was historically good against man coverage in 2023. A Week 1 matchup against the Cleveland Browns is certainly not an easy one (as evidenced by a Dallas Cowboys implied team total coming in below 20 points), but anytime that Lamb gets a man-heavy matchup, we need to make note of it. No team used man coverage more than Cleveland in 2023. |
| The most-open player in the NFL unsurprisingly has drawn targets at a massive rate when facing man coverage. |
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| We probably shouldn't get too carried away with Week 1 expectations for a Panthers offense with an 18.75-point implied point total, but it's definitely exciting to get Diontae Johnson in a man-heavy matchup right away. |
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| Brian Thomas Jr. eruption spot? |
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| Anthony Weaver's 2020 Texans used a lot of press and man coverage. This preseason, we saw the Dolphins use a lot of press and man coverage. Would you press this man? |
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| Could be fun! |
| The Seattle-Denver game could be surprisingly entertaining |
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| New Seahawks Mike MacDonald comes over from the Baltimore Ravens, where he used an extremely aggressive style of defense. Baltimore regularly ranked at or near the top of the NFL in man and press coverage rates under MacDonald. I think that, in time, he's going to turn this Seattle defense into a scary unit. We may see some leaks in that coverage scheme in Week 1, though. |
| Courtland Sutton has some of the most pronounced man/zone coverage splits in the NFL. Seattle has one of the most physical corners in the NFL in Riq Woolen, so this won't be an easy press coverage matchup for Sutton. But anytime that we see him facing more man coverage, it's worth noting. We may see several deep shots to Sutton if Denver falls behind in this game. |
| It will be extremely interesting to see how Seattle's offense attacks this matchup. The easiest way to beat Denver's defense is probably to just run the ball. If the Seahawks take to the air, how often will we see Geno Smith test Patrick Surtain Jr.? Typically, DK Metcalf is the player who Smith has leaned upon when facing single-high heavy coverage schemes, which is exactly the type of defense that Denver's Vance Joseph calls. |
| In Shane Waldron's offense, Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not see many opportunities against single-high coverages. That's no surprise, he was mostly running horizontally along the line of scrimmage. Drag route, drag route, drag route, maybe a screen here and there -- it was horribly boring -- I think that Ryan Grubb's offense is going to look much different. You can watch the first-team offense in preseason action here. |
| I watched all of JSN's rookie season routes against press coverage and was extremely impressed. He's so technically sound and fluid in his movements, that it's very difficult for opposing defenders to jam him. This Broncos defense will try to do just that. And if Smith doesn't feel confident targeting Metcalf against Surtain, we could see him lock in on Smith-Njigba. |
| Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid draw a prime matchup in Week 1 |
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| The Arizona Cardinals ranked second in two-high safety coverage rate in 2023. The Buffalo Bills ranked third. Buffalo changed defensive coordinators this offseason, but it was an internal hire. Sean McDermott's hand will remain heavy in Buffalo's defensive approach. For what it's worth, I looked into Buffalo's first-team preseason coverage data and found much of the same from what we saw in 2023. |
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| Tight ends -- more generally, short-area targets -- typically see a target boost against two-high safety coverage schemes. This is a fantastic spot for both Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid to start their breakout campaigns. McBride saw his target per route run rate rise to 28% when facing two-high defensive looks, while Kincaid had a team-high target and yard per route run rate against two-high safeties during the Joe Brady games. Even higher than Stefon Diggs, Kincaid was targeted on 26% of his routes vs. two-high safety coverage. That's pretty exciting as he looks forward to a potential Week 1 shootout against one of the NFL's softest defenses! |
| Will Arizona be able to convert first downs and keep the pressure on Buffalo? Well, the absence of Buffalo's star coverage linebacker Matt Milano certainly helps their cause! |
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| I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning for the foreseeable future! NFL is back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. Thank you! This is going to be fun! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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