| |
|
| Wednesday, September 7, 2022 |
| In today's newsletter, we're previewing each position for the week, we've got a look at my most-drafted players, and we've got some trade questions and Dave Richard's trade values column. Later on tonight, we'll have Jamey's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em calls, and then Dave's game previews Thursday morning, with updates on all of the injuries you need to know about from around the league to help you lock in your first lineups before Thursday's season opener. |
| Of course, for those of you who still have your drafts tonight, here's what you need to dominate: |
| Draft Day Cheat SheetJamey Eisenberg's: Sleepers | Breakouts | BustsDave Richard's: Deep sleepersHeath Cummings': QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE PreviewChris Towers: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts <strong>QB Tiers</strong><strong>RB Tiers</strong> <strong>WR Tiers</strong> <strong>TE Tiers</strong>My top-200 overall and position-by-position rankings |
| And here's what the rest of today's newsletter has in store to help you get ready for Week 1: |
🔍Week 1 Position Previews
❤️My Guys📫Trade mailbag |
| |
🔍Week 1 Position Previews
|
| Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus top-12 rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: |
| |
| QB Preview |
| "There's no shortage of intrigue in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season, especially at the quarterback position. We get to see Aaron Rodgers without Davante Adams and Patrick Mahomes without Tyreek Hill. We get to see just how good Adams and Hill can make Derek Carr and Tua Tagovailoa. We hopefully get to see the start of a leap for Jalen Hurts and we'll find out if there will be any drop-off for Tom Brady and Dak Prescott. But none of that is intriguing to me as what we get from a pair of second-year quarterbacks facing off against each other in Chicago." |
Number to know: 120 -- Trey Lance rushed for 120 yards in his two complete games of 2021. That rushing floor should help cover any struggles he has as a passer.
Matchup that matters: Matthew Stafford vs. BUF (1st vs. QB in 2021)Waiver add/streamer: "I don't generally list players above 65% in this section, but Justin Fields is worth an exception. Rushing quarterbacks like him (and Lance) are exactly the type of players who emerge from the double-digit rounds to become league-winners. Even with his lack of weapons, Fields has that upside. He should be rostered in close to 90% of leagues."Stash: "Carson Wentz is my highest-ranked starter for Week 1 who is rostered in less than 60% of leagues. That being said, he's QB19 for me and 2.5 points behind Fields in my Week 1 projections. We should expect he'll be a high-end QB2 this week, and beyond because that's what he's been for most of his career. If Jahan Dotson pops alongside Terry McLaurin , then Wentz could be even more than that. Especially against Jacksonville." |
| Consensus Expert Top 12 |
| Lamar JacksonJosh AllenPatrick MahomesJustin HerbertJalen HurtsKyler MurrayTom BradyRussell Wilson Trey LanceMatthew StaffordDak PrescottJoe Burrow |
| |
| RB Preview |
| "Throughout the 2022 draft season there was no running back I drafted more often than Aaron Jones. With one draft left to go, he's on 33% of my rosters this year. That might make you think that I'm fading A.J. Dillon. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, I've come around on Dillon over the last two weeks so much that I have drafted Dillon in five of the past nine drafts I completed. |
| How does this make sense? They're the two most valuable Packers in Fantasy Football." |
| Number to know: 6.7 -- Aaron Jones has averaged nearly seven targets per game in his last seven games without Davante Adams. That would give him a chance to lead all running backs in catches.Matchup that matters: Antonio Gibson vs. JAC (14th vs. RB)Waiver add: "J.D. McKissic should have a bigger role early in the season, as Antonio Gibson is the only back he'll have to share with. In full PPR he could be used as a borderline No. 2 running back or a high-end flex, especially in a matchup against a Jacksonville defense that we don't expect to be very good."Stash: "There have been plenty of rumors that the current Raiders staff is not as enamored with Josh Jacobs as the old Raiders staff. And Zamir White is someone they actually chose to add to the roster. At the very least, White should be the first man up on early downs if Jacobs goes down." |
| Consensus Expert Top 12 |
| Christian McCaffreyJonathan TaylorAustin EkelerDerrick HenryAlvin KamaraDalvin CookLeonard FournetteJoe Mixon Najee HarrisAaron JonesSaquon BarkleyJames Conner |
| WR Preview |
"Talking about regression in Fantasy Football is not exactly what you'd call a crowd pleaser. No one wants to hear that the guy who just did something great probably cannot repeat that great thing, even if they know it to be true. And just about everyone should know that Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel are due for some regression. How much regression is another question altogether.
For Kupp, it could be a lot and still not matter all that much. His 25.7 PPR FPPG was more than 15% better than WR2 Davante Adams. So even if he lost 15% of his production, we might expect him to be the WR1, worth a pick in Round 1. For what it's worth if Kupp didn't regress at all, he's probably worth that No. 1 pick." |
Number to know: 29% -- Targets per route run for Kadarius Toney in 2021, which ranked fifth at the position. If he can stay on the field, he's a breakout.
Matchup that matters: Michael Pittman @HOU (18th vs. WR) Waiver add: "Collins was under-drafted all offseason, so it's no surprise that he's under-rostered in September. He's the clear No. 2 option for a Texans team that should be chasing the score in Week 1. He ranks as a borderline No. 3 wide receiver for me and a good flex in full PPR leagues where you start three wide receivers." Stash: "Garrett Wilson is one of many rookie wide receivers I wouldn't start in Week 1 but I absolutely want on my bench. He's at the top of the list, but it also includes Jahan Dotson, Romeo Doubs, Jalen Tolbert, Jameson Williams, and Christian Watson. Williams is the easiest to stash if you have an IR slot. Just add him, put him on the IR, then add another rookie pass catcher." |
| Consensus Expert Top 12 |
| Cooper KuppJustin JeffersonJa'Marr ChaseTyreek HillDavante AdamsStefon DiggsCeeDee LambMichael Pittman A.J. BrownMike EvansDeebo SamuelD.J. Moore |
| |
| TE Preview |
"Right out of the gate, we're going to get a chance to see how much different things are for Kyle Pitts. We know he has a new quarterback in Marcus Mariota and we think he has a new running mate in Drake London, though we're still waiting for confirmation that London will be ready.
Pitts projects as my No. 4 tight end this week and that in itself would be a change because the Saints, and most of the NFC South, had the way with the rookie in 2021. Against the Saints, Pitts totaled five catches for 70 yards in two outings. And 39 of those yards came on one play. Against the division he averaged a paltry 7.9 PPR FPPG, only reaching double digits in two games out of six." |
| Number to know: 28% - The career tight end target rate for Marcus Mariota, which would've been third-highest in the NFL last season.Matchup that matters: Tyler Higbee vs. BUF (6th vs. TE)Streamer: "The matchup is the only thing that gives me any reason for pause here. Tyler Higbee sees five-to-six targets per game when everyone is healthy and right now we're unsure about the status of Van Jefferson . Higbee is someone I'm drafting as a TE1 for the season but he's also my highest projected player available on the waiver wire." |
| Consensus Expert Top 12 |
| Travis KelceMark AndrewsDarren WallerKyle PittsDallas GoedertGeorge KittleDalton SchultzT.J. Hockenson Cole KmetPat FreiermuthTyler HigbeeDavid Njoku |
| ❤️ My Guys |
| |
| You've been reading my thoughts all preseason on who you should target, who you should avoid, and why. But how much have I been following my own advice? Well, I've got 10 drafts in the books for leagues that I'm playing out -- I've got two more to finish Wednesday night and then I'm finally finished -- so I figured now was a good time to take a look at the players I'm most invested in for the 2020 season. |
| If you've been reading all along, most of these shouldn't surprise you. But even I have to admit, a few of them actually did surprise me. I wrote about the 12 players I've drafted in at least three of my 10 leagues, and you should head to that piece to read more about why and how that dozen ended up on so many of my rosters, but here are my thoughts on the four I've got in at least four leagues -- and it should surprise none of you to learn all four are wide receivers: |
| Robert Woods -- Times picked: 7 -- Woods ended up on half of my squads this season, which makes sense because I'm a lot higher than the consensus on him. The reason for that is pretty simple: I think he's the Titans clear No. 1 wide receiver, and while that never resulted in enough targets to A.J. Brown for our liking, it still came out to be a pace of around 130 over the past two seasons. Woods suffered his torn ACL later in the calendar than someone like Chris Godwin , who ends up going 50-70 picks ahead of Woods, too. Godwin is, of course, a better player than Woods, but Woods is pretty awesome in his own right, ranking 19th in points per game last season in PPR scoring with at least 15.0 points per game in each of his past four seasons. I'm not expecting him to get back to that level again, necessarily, but Woods still has WR2 upside at a WR4/5 price. He's been close to a top-30 WR for me throughout the draft process. |
| Tee Higgins -- Times picked: 5 -- Higgins had shoulder surgery in the offseason and has been pretty quiet in training camp, so I wonder if that's played a part in driving his price down. He's a borderline WR1 for, and I'm quite invested in the Browns passing game at this point, having drafted both Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow in three leagues. Higgins isn't as good as Chase, in all likelihood, but it wouldn't be a shock if he had more targets than his teammate, or at least came very close to matching him. Higgins is a pretty great player in his own right, coming off a season where he averaged 14.7 yards per catch and 9.9 per target with a 67.3% catch rate. Getting him toward the end of the third round is a steal I'm happy to make every time. |
Jameson Williams -- Times picked: 5 -- I added another Williams pick in the draft I'm doing as I write this, and my decision-making process in the 12th round and later basically looks like this from our draft chat:
Chris T (3:07:28PM): We have IR spots, right?
Jamey E (3:07:38PM): yes
Pick: 148 - Team Chris Towers selects Williams, Jameson |
| Williams is on the NFI list to open the season and will have to miss the first four games, but by all accounts, his recovery from a January torn ACL has gone as well as hoped. I'm not expecting him to make much of an impact in the first half of the season, but Wiliams is arguably the most talented wide receiver in his draft class, and could emerge as a Fantasy difference maker down the stretch. And picking him basically gives me a free player to add on waivers at the start of the season where I've got an IR spot. |
| Check out the rest of my most-drafted players here. |
| đź“«Trade Mailbag |
| There's one guy I play in a few leagues with who always starts hitting people up for trades immediately after the draft, and I'm always kind of perplexed by it. I mean, I can certainly understand the sort of restlessness that leads to the desire, but ... I'm usually pretty happy with the teams that I draft. That's why I drafted the players I did! Even when I have a "hole," it's usually by design – I went with a zero-RB build knowing I would be weak there to start off, or I took a late-round flier on a QB or TE with the hopes they'll pay off but no guarantees. |
| Still, there's no wrong time to make your team better, and those of you who drafted longer than just a few days ago may have holes you didn't expect. Or, you might find yourself with unexpected surpluses – say, you took Antonio Gibson as his price was cratering 10 days ago and suddenly have a starting running back you didn't account for to play with. |
| Every Wednesday in this space, I'll be answering your trade questions, giving you Dave Richard's trade chart's spin as well as how I would approach the deals. If you want your trade questions answered, send them over to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" and I'll make sure they get answered next week: |
| Zach: Who wins this trade (full PPR; 12-team) Team 1 gets: Justin Herbert, Darren Waller; Team 2 gets: Lamar Jackson, Travis Kelce. |
| What the trade chart says: Team 1 gets 30, Team 2 gets 42.What I say: I have Jackson ranked higher than Herbert as is, so this is a clear win for Team 2 from my perspective, and the trade chart agrees. Even if you don't think Jackson should be ranked higher than Herbert, the gap between the two of them is about 50 picks; the gap between Kelce and Waller is more like 50. It's an easy win. |
| @ChampCityLA: I got Cam Akers as my RB2. Waited too long to get Darrell Henderson later in the draft. Would you trade DeAndre Hopkins for Henderson or just roll with Akers? I have five solid WR besides Hopkins. |
| What the trade chart says: Giving up 9, getting 6.What I say: Trade chart says it's a loss, and I say it's a loss, but not a significant one. It's really just a question of trading upside for security -- Hopkins could still be a top-12 WR when he comes back from his injury, but if you already have solid depth at wide receiver, you need him less than you might otherwise. And Hopkins will take up a bench spot for those six weeks, which hurts. I don't necessarily think having Henderson to back up Akers is a big concern -- my bigger worry there is Akers stays healthy but just isn't very effective. Having Henderson wouldn't necessarily be insurance for that. |
| Terry: 14 team PPR, 3 WR 2 Flex. I traded my Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kadarius Toney for Chris Godwin. I will likely start Isiah McKenzie in Toney's spot and add Wan'Dale Robinson or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to fill the empty roster spot. Thoughts on the deal and a deep league WR to possibly add for depth? |
| What the trade chart says: Giving up 17, getting 19. What I say: The trade chart likes it, and I think it's pretty fair. Godwin is the best of the bunch when healthy, and but who knows when that will actually be? He might be ready to go for Week 1 and be perfectly fine; he might be ready to go for Week 1 but need a few weeks to get back to 100%; he might not be ready to play at all for a few more weeks, and he might never be fully himself this season -- Odell Beckham's 2021 would be an example of that kind of recovery from a torn ACL. The truth is, there's no guarantee here, but there's no guarantee St. Brown will be more than a WR3 with a healthier supporting cast in Detroit, and there's no guarantee of anything with Toney. I think it's a fine deal. And I think Robinson is a fine WR to add, but I would consider Jahan Dotson or Alec Pierce ahead of him if they are available. |
| Ralph: I have Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrell Henderson. Other team has Cam Akers, Joe Mixon, Kareem Hunt and Tyler Allgeier. I was thinking of offering either CEH for Akers or Henderson for Hunt so I would have both top RBs from the same team. I think I would prefer to get Hunt due to Akers' injury last year. I guess I could stand [at. What do you think? How do you rate CEH vs Akers? |
| What the trade chart says: Hunt is a 10, Akers and CEH are a 9, Henderson is a 6. What I say: Trade chart says stand pat unless you can get Hunt for Henderson, but I think that's probably a pretty long shot. What I would say is I don't think this really needs to be a priority for you -- I prefer Hunt to Henderson because he has an obvious path to value even if Chubb is healthy. If Chubb stays healthy, Hunt is a low-end start; if Akers stays healthy, Henderson is probably a bench piece. If you can get Hunt, that's fine, otherwise, I don't see the point. |
| |
| |
| |
| |
