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Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Life finds a way. 
I've made that reference several times this spring, but we might have gotten the best example of it with Victor Scott cracking the Cardinals Opening Day roster almost at the literal last minute. Dylan Carlson suffered a shoulder injury Monday during the team's spring training game and will be joining Lars Nootbaar (ribs) and Tommy Edman (wrist) on the IL to open the season, clearing a spot for Scott to make his MLB debut, presumably Thursday against the Dodgers
And yes, you should be very excited. Maybe it won't end up working out -- maybe that other classic Jeff Goldblum quote from the Jurassic Park sequel will end up being more representative of what the Victor Scott hype train will end up looking like.
But, as I wrote Tuesday afternoon, you have to be excited about Scott now that we know he'll be on the roster. Maybe not in H2H points leagues, but in Roto leagues? Remember, Esteury Ruiz was a top-45 outfielder last season despite hitting .254 with five homers and 94 combined runs and RBI. He was a starting-caliber player despite being a replacement-level player or worse in four out of five categories. And we have a lot of reasons to think Scott will be better than Ruiz. 
If you still have a waiver-wire or FAB run in your league tonight, Scott should be the top priority, even if you don't need speed. Because, if he hits his upside, we're talking about a potential top-75 trade asset, and that's not the ceiling. I have him stashed in a few places, and boy am I glad I didn't drop him when it was initially announce he wouldn't make the team. 
Before we move on, we should also mention that Jordan Montgomery finally signed, agreeing to a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks (with some vesting options), in a move that probably matters a lot more for real life than Fantasy. The World Series runner up just signed a high-end rotation piece, which is huge for them, obviously. For Fantasy, it's a decent SP4/5, landing with a decent team in a decent home park, and he remains a viable mid-round pick, which is nice, but hardly earth-shattering. Maybe some were scared off as Montgomery's free agency dragged into late-March, but I was drafting Montgomery in the 170-200 range, and will continue to do so. 
That's the biggest news from Tuesday, and with no exhibition games around the league today, hopefully that's the last bit of big news we'll get before the games start. Which, by the way, is tomorrow! In the rest of today's newsletter, we'll get you ready for Week 1 of the Fantasy season with a look at the top waiver-wire targets, plus Scott White's pitching and hitting previews.
One day left. Let's get those lineups set. 
Week 1 Preview
Most weeks, this preview is going to be pretty straightforward, but not Week 1. Because "Week 1" means different things in different leagues. Most leagues are just going to count the games from Thursday through Sunday as Week 1, with Week 2 serving as the first full week of the Fantasy season. Which means you're mostly starting your studs, especially because the handful of teams that are set to play four games this week are likely to be pretty generous with days off this weekend, leading to many players only playing three games even if they're schedule for four.
(Which reminds me: Please, do not panic when your player gets an unexpected day off early in the season. It doesn't mean they got benched. It doesn't mean their manager hates them. It just means most teams like to get everyone on the roster into a game as early as possible so they don't get rusty.) 
But some leagues will be combining the first two "weeks" of the season into one longer scoring format, running from March 28 through April 7. The benefit of that is that every pitcher is on more or less even footing, with most projected starters likely to start twice between now and then; the downside is, if one of your players gets hurt this weekend, you're up a creek without a paddle, proverbially. For this week, we'll focus on both schedule types, but moving forward, our weekly preview Newsletter -- which will come out Monday mornings, by the way -- will be a bit more streamlined than this. 
I did a deep dive on the top waiver-wire targets earlier this week, and I mostly focused on players rostered in 50% or fewer of CBS Fantasy leagues. Scott's preview for Week 1 tends to focus more on guys in the 60-80% range, so we'll stick with players on the lower end of the scale here: 
Every week, Scott White will give us the top sleeper pitchers plus his rankings of the projected two-start pitchers for the upcoming week. This week, that doesn't really work, because of the schedule, so we're focusing on the short Week 1 and the longer Week 1+
Top sleeper pitchers for Week 1
  1. Kenta Maeda, SP, Tigers @CHW
  2. A.J. Puk, RP, Marlins vs. PIT
  3. Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers @CHW
  4. Luis Severino, SP, Mets vs. MIL
  5. Tyler Wells, SP, Orioles vs. LAA
Maeda hasn't gotten nearly as much hype as some of these other pitchers this spring, because his best-case scenario just isn't nearly as good as what Puk, Flaherty, and Severino especially are potentially capable of. But when it comes to actually having to start one of them, it makes a lot of sense to rank Maeda at the top. 
Top sleeper pitchers for Week 1+
  1. Kenta Maeda, SP, Tigers @CHW, vs. OAK
  2. Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers @CHW, vs. OAK
  3. A.J. Puk, RP, Marlins vs. PIT, vs. LAA
  4. Tyler Wells, SP, Orioles vs. LAA, @PIT
  5. Gavin Stone, SP, Dodgers vs. STL, @CHC
Stone jumps into the top five even though neither matchup is anything better than decent. Stone has been one of my favorite sleepers all spring after he talked about how he believes he fixed a pitch-tipping issue that derailed his 2023 season. Stone was a consensus top-100 prospect this time last year, with a career 33% strikeout rate in the minors, and if he fixed what went wrong last season, he could absolutely be a must-start pitcher this season. Why not throw him out there with a couple starts on the way? 
Before we get to the best sleeper hitters for Week 1, let's take a look at the best and worst hitter matchups this weekend: 
Best hitter matchups for short Week 1
1. Diamondbacks COL4
2. Guardians @OAK4
3. Dodgers STL4
4.  Marlins  PIT4
5. Padres SF4
Worst hitter matchups for short Week 1
1. Phillies ATL3
2. Angels @BAL3
3. Braves @PHI3
4.  Royals  MIN3
5. White Sox DET3
Top sleeper hitters for short Week 1
  1. Jackson Merrill, SS, Padres SF4
  2. Mitch Garver, C/DH, Mariners BOS4
  3. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds WAS3
  4. Henry Davis, OF, Pirates @MIA4
  5. Sal Frelick, OF, Brewers @NYM3
If those five hitters are available in your league, you should be looking to add all of them, and not just for Week 1. There's serious upside with each of them. 
Best hitter matchups for Week 1
1. Rays TOR4, TEX3, @COL3
2. Marlins PIT4, LAA3, @STL3
3. Dodgers STL4, SF3, @CHC3
4. Padres SF4, STL3, @SF3
5. Tigers @CHW3, @NYM3, OAK3
Worst hitter matchups for Week 1+
1. Giants @SD4, @LAD3, SD3
2. Angels @BAL3, @MIA3, BOS3
3. Cardinals  @LAD4, @SD3, MIA3
4.  Yankees @HOU4, @ARI3, TOR3
5. Mariners BOS4, CLE3, @MIL3
Top sleeper hitters for Week 1+
  1. Jackson Merrill, SS, Padres SF4, STL3, @SF3
  2. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Orioles LAA3, KC3, @PIT3
  3. Tim Anderson, SS, Marlins PIT4, LAA3, @STL3
  4. Tyler O'Neill, OF, Red Sox @SEA4, @OAK3, @LAA3
  5. MJ Melendez, OF, Royals MIN3, @BAL3, CHW4
These names are all a little less exciting than the previous five for the short Week 1, though they're all also mostly ranked higher than those previous names. But that's more about projectable playing time and floor, which matters more on a longer timetable. But if you need a plug-and-play option, these are all obviously pretty good ones. 
 
 
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