| | | | Monday, March 25, 2024 | | The first waiver-wire run of the season is always the trickiest one of the season, and I'll admit, I overshot it last night. By a lot. | | In one of my leagues, a 15-team league with weekly FAB runs and no IL spots, I had a few roster spots to play with after some late-round flier types like Matt Brash and Tyler Soderstrom went sideways since the draft ended in early March. And, while there weren't any obvious, no-doubt-about it difference makers available on the wire, there were a handful of interesting pitchers I wanted to add to my roster. | | And, as it turns out, I was the only one who really wanted them, as you can see in the FAB results from Sunday night, with the guys I added in italics: | | Michael Kopech, P, White Sox -- Winning bid: $155; Runner-up bid: $14 Luis Gil, P, Yankees -- Winning bid: $85; Runner-up bid: $44 Trevor Megill, P, Brewers -- Winning bid: $71; Runner-up bid: $14Ryan Weathers, P, Marlins -- Winning bid: $70; Runner-up bid: $3 Garrett Mitchell, OF, Brewers -- Winning bid: $39; Runner-up bid: $18 | | So, of the four highest bids Sunday, I had four of them. Whoops. | | It's not necessarily great that I spent 31% of my budget in the first week of the season, especially when the runner-up bids for those players amounted to just 6.1% of the total budget. I overestimated how aggressive the league would be on those players, and from scanning some other results in similar leagues, it seems like that was the story of the weekend. One or two players blew out their budget, but bidding overall in the first FAB run was much less aggressive than expected. | | | | I think there are certainly some lessons to take away from this, and I sure wish I had a few dollars back on all three of those bids. On the other hand, if Kopech recaptures his form from the last time he was a full-time reliever and becomes the White Sox closer, it could be a steal; he had a 3.50 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 69.1 innings as a reliever in 2021 and was hitting triple digits on the radar gun this weekend. | | The other thing to keep in mind here is that the caliber of player available in a 15-team league just isn't comparable to the kind of player you'll find on the wire in your average 10- or 12-team league. On Sunday afternoon, I wrote our first waiver-wire article for the season, and while I set the line for eligible players to write about at 50% rostered, the following players were all widely available in CBS Sports leagues, and I'd argue none of them should be: | | Mitch Garver, C, Mariners (64%) Henry Davis, OF, Pirates (58%)Colt Keith, 3B, Tigers (58%) Jonathan India, 2B, Reds (61%)Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox (76%) Nick Lodolo, SP, Reds (70%) Cristopher Sanchez, SP, Phillies (69%)Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Blue Jays (67%) A.J. Puk, SP, Marlins (67%)Gavin Stone, SP, Dodgers (58%)Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers (50%) Robert Suarez, RP, Padres (69%)Carlos Estevez, RP, Angels (61%) | | If you play in a league where any of those players are available, you'd better have a really compelling reason not to go out and add them right now. And, if those players aren't available, here are my top targets at each position who are rostered in fewer than 50% of CBS Fantasy leagues as of Sunday night: | C: Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays (41% rostered)
1B: Ty France, Mariners (47%)2B: Jordan Westburg, Orioles (42%)3B: Michael Busch, Cubs (39%)SS: Tim Anderson, Marlins (31%) OF: Tyler O'Neill, Red Sox (49%); Sal Frelick, Brewers (46%); Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox (43%)SP: Seth Lugo, Royals (46%); Casey Mize, Tigers (41%); Jared Jones, Pirates (27%); Trevor Rogers, Marlins (22%) RP: Michael Kopech, White Sox (27%); Joel Payamps, Brewers (44%); Zack Littell, Rays (34%) | | We'll be doing an in-depth look at the waiver-wire every Sunday afternoon on CBSSports.com, and this newsletter will feature waiver-wire targets to consider every weekday morning, so we've got you covered on that end coming up. For the rest of today's newsletter, we've got a busy weekend of Spring Training notes to recap, with a bunch of teams announcing who made the team, who didn't, and who will be starting where and when to open the season. | | Scott White has a full breakdown of the biggest winners and losers from the spring here, taking a wider view of the landscape since spring started -- and we talked about a lot of the same players in Monday's Fantasy Baseball Today, which you can watch here. For now, here are my thoughts on 11 of the biggest storylines you need to know about from the last weekend of the spring: | | | | 11 things to know from the last weekend of Spring Training | | | | Scott White wrote about the biggest winners (and losers) from Spring Training, and you can check that out here. For a a more specific look at what went down this weekend that you need to know about, read on, beginning with the latest on Shohei Ohtani: | | There is an MLB investigation around Shohei Ohtani | | There is still very little about this situation that we know with any certainty, but MLB announced Friday they are formally launching an investigation into the allegations surrounding Ohtani and his former interpreter. As of now, there is no reason to believe Ohtani is facing any kind of disciplinary action from MLB, but there was an impact on his price in drafts over the weekend: Prior to Friday, Ohtani's ADP in the month of March in NFC drafts was 10.91; from Friday through Sunday, it was 13.3. That's not a huge drop, but it's noteworthy, given how thin the margins are at the top of drafts. You can read more about what we know about Ohtani's interpreter's gambling allegations here, but I'll just say this: This is one of those situations where I can't really offer any advice on how to proceed, because I don't know anything more than any of you do. Whether you want to invest a late-first/early-second round pick in Ohtani in your remaining drafts is a question of your personal risk tolerance. | | Jackson Holliday did not make the Opening Day roster … | | He's "very, very close," per GM Mike Elias, but not that close, I guess. Look, ultimately, it's not that surprising that a 20-year-old with 54 games above A-ball wasn't called up on Opening Day on a team with an overabundance of viable young major-league players, but it's still incredibly disappointing after it seemed for most of spring like Holliday held his fate in his hands. He hit .311/.354/.600 in 48 spring plate appearances, but I guess that wasn't good enough. Yes, Holliday doesn't have much experience against high-level competition, and yes, he struck out more than 30% of the time this spring, but it's still frustrating that Holliday performed like that and still apparently didn't really have a chance. Yes, you should stash him in all leagues where you already drafted him, but I wouldn't be looking to draft Holliday before the reserve rounds now. | | | | … but Wyatt Langford sure did! | | The Rangers would have had no excuse for not calling Langford up after he absolutely torched the Grapefruit League, hitting .388/.446/.796 with a totally manageable 25% strikeout rate. There are questions about where Langford will play, but you have to feel pretty confident that he will, in fact, play. And, if you thought his price couldn't get any higher, Langford's ADP in NFBC leagues over the weekend was 72.5 – that's the highest price for a rookie without prior MLB experience since Vladimir Guerrero in 2019. As I wrote earlier in the spring, to p prospects who get pushed into the top-100 in ADP have been remarkably profitable for Fantasy over the past decade . While I can't say I'm in on Langford as a sixth-round pick, I can't exactly come up with a strong argument against it. He's outrageously talented and has crushed the competition in a pretty historic manner without exception since his sophomore season at Florida. He might just be a top-25 pick this time next year. | | Eury Perez has already been cleared to throw | | I don't mind telling you that I was convinced this was going to end with Perez having Tommy John surgery, and it still may; he's a 20-year-old pitcher who sits 99 mph with his fastball who is still dealing with elbow inflammation, which is all very scary. But he avoided a serious injury and was already cleared to play catch twice this weekend. He hadn't thrown prior to that since March 13, and would likely need at least six weeks to get ready to pitch in games, but that he still might be able to is a win in and of itself. | | It's also worth noting that Perez's injury opened up a spot on the Opening Day roster for top prospect Max Meyer. Meyer is working his way back from his own Tommy John surgery and might be the first guy out of the rotation when either Braxton Garrett or Edward Cabrera are ready to return from their spring shoulder injuries. But he's worth a look on the off chance he sticks in the rotation, because he had a 2.77 ERA with 195 strikeouts in 169 career innings between Double-A and Triple-A. | | Corey Seager (abdomen) and Josh Jung (calf) look ready for Opening Day | | This might be one of the biggest stories of the entire spring, because it looked like both Seager and Jung might miss the start of the season at one point. Instead, they've already both played in spring games and should be out there Thursday for the Rangers. Seager's ADP over the weekend was 30.0, while Jung's was 127.6, and I think both of those are terrific values; I would draft Seager as a top-24 pick the rest of the way, while Jung would be a top-100 pick. | | J.D. Martinez finally signed with the Mets | | There was some talk about Martinez's comments citing Oracle Park as a reason for why he opted for the Mets over an offer from the Giants, with plenty of people noting that Citi Field actually has worse park factors for right-handed hitters than Oracle did. But, while that might be true, for Martinez specifically, it might be less true; according to Statcast data, Martinez would have hit 39 homers in Citi Field last season, compared to just 24 at Oracle Park. It's not necessarily an ideal landing spot, but it might suit Martinez's swing just fine, and the top of the Mets lineup suddenly looks pretty promising. I'm not expecting Martinez to repeat last season's absurd 103-RBI-in-113-games pace, and there are some red flags with his strikeout rate ballooning to a career-high 31.1% in 2023. But he should remain a very good hitter whenever he's up to speed, and is a totally viable DH candidate for Fantasy. | | David Bednar (lat) is back to pitching in games | | Bednar made his spring debut Thursday, and followed up with his second outing of the spring Sunday as he continues to work his way back up to full strength. He looked questionable for Opening Day due to his lat injury, but with a couple of appearances under his belt and his velocity within 1 mph of his average last season, I don't see much reason to be concerned about that at this point. There's some risk of re-injury given the long layoff, but I'm confidently drafting Bednar as my No. 1 closer at this point. | | Shane Bieber might be back | | Alright, now we're heading into the realm of the theoretical and running the risk of overreacting to spring results, but what the heck, let's have some fun. Bieber entered spring with a little bit of optimism after he reportedly added velocity to his fastball and break to his curveball this offseason , and then he went out and looked like his old self this spring, culminating with a seven-strikeout, six-inning gem in his final tuneup Friday. All in all, Bieber struck out 19 batters while allowing just three runs over 17.1 innings of work, which is just about as good as we could possibly have hoped for him. It may not mean anything, but combined with data showing Bieber's stuff was better coming into the spring than it had been in years, and I think it's okay to get a little bit excited about Bieber. As a treat. | | Luis Severino might be back | | With Severino, I'm not sure we really needed to see the stuff get back to its former levels, because it mostly looked fine last season; not quite where it had been, but his 104 Stuff+ mark wasn't too far off his 108 Stuff+ mark in 2022, when he was very good. The concerns here were health, primarily, but also a potential pitch-tipping issue the Mets reportedly identified when they signed Severino. There can be no definitive conclusions drawn from the spring, but Severino did everything he could, striking out 12 and allowing just one walk over 14 innings, culminating in a final tuneup against the Nationals Sunday where he averaged 96 mph with his four-seam fastball and had 10 swinging strikes on 73 pitches. | | Jack Flaherty might be back | | Let's keep the train rollin' with another former ace who looked like himself again this spring. Flaherty's spring numbers are even more impressive than Severino or Bieber's as he struck out 24 while walking just four over 17.1 innings with a 3.12 ERA. His velocity has consistently been up from the past few seasons, and he had a whopping 13 whiffs on 87 pitches Sunday in his final tuneup against the Rays. Sustaining that velocity will be key for Flaherty, but the Tigers seem to be doing a good job maximizing their pitchers these days, and he looks more like the once-ace version of himself than he has in a half-decade. I am absolutely starting him against the White Sox in his first start of the season. | | Casey Mize made the Tigers rotation | | Speaking of the Tigers and maximizing their pitchers, former No. 1 overall pick Mize ultimately beat out Matt Manning for the No. 5 spot in the Tigers rotation. He wasn't quite as impressive as Flaherty this spring, walking nine over 15.1 innings of work, but it's worth noting that issue got better as the spring went on, and Mize was sitting 95 all spring, velocity he's never really shown for long stretches in the majors. I still have concerns about the quality of the secondary stuff and the ability to consistently get strikeouts, but I was making Mize one of my late-round picks all spring, and I want him on my rosters just to see if the new velocity helps him unlock a level we haven't seen from him before. | | | | | | | | CBS Sports HQ X March Madness | | March Madness Live | Bringing you the BEST coverage of the Big Dance. Tune in for 24/7 tournament highlights, analysis & much more.
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