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Friday, November 10, 2023 |
The quality of football on Thursday night this week was … not great. D'Onta Foreman was the only player on either team with more than 58 yards, and neither team got to even 300 yards of total offense – the Panthers barely crossed 200 yards. |
What do you want me to say? At least the Bengals-Ravens matchup next Thursday night should be better! Neither of these teams has much going for them right now, and you could see this stinker of a matchup coming from months away. |
Hopefully the rest of Week 10's schedule provides some more fireworks for Fantasy, because Foreman was the only player on either team – including the quarterbacks – with more than 11 PPR points. If you were relying heavily on these two teams for your Fantasy matchup … well, you probably already knew your chances of winning weren't great. |
In the rest of today's newsletter, I've got more thoughts on what we saw Thursday, along with updates on all the injuries you need to know about heading into the weekend, plus my thoughts on Sunday's main DFS slate. And we'll be back Sunday morning with everything else you need before you lock in your lineups for Week 10 ahead of our last 9:30 a.m. ET kick off of the season: |
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TNF recap: Bears 16, Panthers 13 |
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- The big takeaway: There's just no upside in either of these offenses right now. If DJ Moore is going to have a good game, his only real path to getting there is by breaking a big play after the catch, while Adam Thielen can maybe brute-force his way there with a ton of volume, but these teams just don't have anything exciting going for them right now. At least in the Bears' spot, you could point to the expected return of Justin Fields (thumb) ... eventually, which should unlock some of the upside Moore showed when the Bears were willing to attack down the field. But for the Panthers, there's really no sign of hope here. They can't run the ball with any of their backs, their offensive line can't protect, and Bryce Young hasn't shown he is able to successfully take big shots down the field against NFL defenses. It's just all bad.
- Winner: D'Onta Foreman. Though even this comes with a caveat, as this might have been the last game Foreman gets as the Bears' unquestioned RB1, with Khalil Herbert working his way back from his ankle injury. Given the extra time off, Herbert should be back for Week 11 (we thought he'd be back today initially), which could create a very unappetizing quagmire. Foreman continues to look very solid when he gets the opportunity, though he needed the touchdown to have a chance at what will likely end up being a low-end RB1 day. Like I said, there just isn't a lot of upside in this offense.
- Loser: Adam Thielen. Thielen got his 10 targets (26% target share), so we can't really complain about the process. And the Panthers are obviously looking for ways to get him involved, even lining him up in the backfield on one key late catch. But because it's all short-area stuff and Thielen isn't a very dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands, there's almost no margin for error here. There are no downfield looks and very few scoring opportunities, so Thielen's only real chance is to rack up a ton of targets and catch as many of them as possible. The past two weeks, that hasn't amounted to much production, unfortunately.
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Week 10 injury updates |
Quarterback |
There are plenty of backup QBs playing this week, but we actually don't have any injuries we're following for Week 10's remaining games. We'll see what it looks like next week when Justin Fields (thumb) and Matthew Stafford (thumb) are trying to get back. |
Running back |
James Conner (knee) continues to be limited as he works his way back from IR, and hopefully we'll know his status by later today. The Cardinals will have to make the decision to activate him from IR in advance of Sunday's game, so we'll know well before Sunday's lineup lock if he's back, and I would use him as a high-end RB2 if he's cleared. If Conner is out, Keaontay Ingram figures to be the lead back yet again, as Emari Demercado (toe) has yet to practice. Ingram would be in the low-end RB2 range if Conner doesn't play. |
Dameon Pierce (hamstring) didn't practice yet again Thursday, and it looks like Devin Singletary is going to get another chance to be the Texans ' lead back. He played 75% of the snaps last week but had just 4.6 PPR points, and is just an RB3 if Pierce is out, as this Texans team just hasn't been able to run the ball all season. |
Kenneth Walker (chest) returned to practice Thursday and looks all set to play against the Commanders this week. He didn't practice Wednesday, raising some alarm bells, but his full practice Thursday is a sign that it's not a concern. Walker has seen his role decrease a bit over the past two games while dealing with injuries, making him look like less of a sure thing than he seemed to be early on. But I'm still starting him as an RB2 as long as he's active. |
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David Montgomery (ribs) has practiced in full all week and looks well on his way to making his return from a multi-game absence this week. I'm ranking both him and Jahmyr Gibbs as top-20 RBs even against what has been a much improved Chargers run defense of late. This Lions' running game seems pretty matchup-proof at this point. |
Keaton Mitchell (hamstring) was limited at Thursday's practice, and the mid-week injury report addition is always a concern. Earlier Thursday, offensive coordinator Todd Monken told reporters Mitchell has earned more opportunities, but this hamstring injury might make it tough for him to take advantage. You shouldn't plan on using him against a tough Browns defense either way, though Mitchell should be 100% rostered for the upside he showed last week. |
Pierre Strong (hamstring) was upgraded to a limited practice Thursday, a sign he has a chance to play. If Strong is in the mix, it makes it even tougher to trust Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt against a tough matchup. |
Kendre Miller (ankle) hasn't played this week and looks like he's going to miss this game against the Vikings. Jamaal Williams should have a slightly bigger role but just hasn't done enough this season to be worth using unless you're absolutely desperate. Alvin Kamara remains a top-five RB. |
Wide receiver |
Ja'Marr Chase (back) was upgraded to a limited participation in practice Thursday, a sign he has a chance to play against the Texans, though not a guarantee at this point. The Bengals already figure to be short-handed, with Tee Higgins (hamstring) not expected to play after suffering a hamstring injury Wednesday – and, with the Bengals playing Thursday in Week 11, this very well could be a multi-week absence for Higgins (at least). Tyler Boyd is a slightly better WR3 option with Higgins out, but he hasn't topped 40 yards in either of the last two games he's playing without Higgins, so he's by no means a must-start option. |
Justin Jefferson (hamstring) has been limited both days to open the week after having his window to return from IR opened. He hasn't been ruled out yet for this week against the Saints, but he did say Thursday he won't play until he's 100% healthy, which seems to suggest his chances of playing this week aren't great. Coach Kevin O'Connell admitted it would be "a little aggressive" for Jefferson to come this week. |
Deebo Samuel (shoulder) has practiced without limitations this week and should be good to make his return after missing two games. He's in the WR2 range for his return. |
Drake London (groin) was a full participant in practice Thursday and should be good to go for this week assuming he avoids a setback. He's a boom-or-bust WR3/4 for me if he plays. |
Nico Collins (calf) has yet to practice this week, and it's not looking likely that he'll play this week. The Texans could have Robert Woods (foot) back, as he was upgraded to a limited practice Thursday. |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hip) returned to practice Thursday after missing Wednesday's session, so the Seahawks should have their full complement of weapons available – DK Metcalf (hip) missed Thursday's session, but that's been the norm most weeks this week, so I'm not concerned about it. I think all three of the Seahawks receivers are viable starts this week against a very good matchup against the Commanders. |
Christian Watson (back) has practiced without limitations this week despite leaving last week's game with the injury, so he looks good to go. Unfortunately, he just hasn't shown enough so far this season to consider anything more than a WR4 for Fantasy. Even that might be giving him too much credit. |
Josh Downs (knee) has yet to practice this week, so it looks like he won't be able to play through the injury. That's not terribly surprising, as he tried to play through it last week and suffered a setback. Even if Downs does play, I wouldn't be able to trust him until he gets through a game without issue. |
The Patriots announced Thursday that DeVante Parker (concussion) will not travel with the team to Germany for this week's game against the Colts. Demario Douglas (ankle) has been limited this week, but the fact that he traveled with the team does seem to suggest he'll play, though that isn't a guarantee. He's a WR4 for me if he plays. |
Zay Jones (knee) was limited for the second day in a row Thursday, but he still seems a bit iffy to return in Week 10. I'm still stashing him where I can, but it sounds like Jones hasn't done a ton at practice and might need another week. |
Curtis Samuel (toe) was upgraded to a limited practice Wednesday and Thursday, after missing last week's game, so it looks like he has a chance to return. He's in the WR4 range of the rankings, but his return could make it tougher for Jahan Dotson to keep his hot streak up. |
Treylon Burks (concussion) hasn't practiced this week and looks like he won't be cleared to play this week. |
Tight end |
T.J. Hockenson (ribs) has been limited so far this week in practice, but he told reporters Thursday he plans to play through the injury suffered last week. Whether he'll be limited remains to be seen, and Hockenson made it sound like it'll be a pain tolerance issue more than anything. There's some risk of an in-game setback, but I would have a hard time going away from him as long as he's active – I might consider it if I had picked up Trey McBride or Dalton Kincaid, but probably not in any other circumstances unless we get some reporting indicating he's likely to be limited. |
David Njoku (knee) was upgraded to a limited practice Thursday after missing Wednesday's session, so it looks like he's trending toward playing. Njoku has mostly played like a TD-or-bust TE this season, though his 23 targets over the past three games give him the opportunity for more than that. He's a fine TE starter. |
Top DFS picks |
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Based on my projections and analysis for Week 10, here are my top stack targets and my favorite plays at each position, with an eye on tournament plays: |
Top Stacks |
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A Baker Mayfield vs. Will Levis shootout? Yeah, I could actually see it. Neither is a sure thing, but the Buccaneers have the eighth-highest pass rate in the NFL this season and, as NBC Sports' Denny Carter noted last week , they've become "one of the NFL's most extreme pass funnel defenses." The Bucs have been tough against the run and that's led to a high pass rate against them, and they're allowing the second-most passing yards per game and eighth-most touchdowns through the air. This could be a sneaky-good passing matchup. |
Top QBs |
DraftKings |
- Baker Mayfield vs. TEN $5100
- Will Levis @TB $5300
- Trevor Lawrence vs. SF $6000
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You might be surprised to see Lawrence here against the 49ers, but I actually think it's not a terrible matchup. It's not a great one, to be sure, but the 49ers tend to have an awful lot of pass attempts against them, and I still think Lawrence has played better than his Fantasy results would make you think. I don't mind the idea of Lawrence as an underdog, playing in a trailing script at home, in a slate where there probably won't be many players rostering him. |
FanDuel |
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I've been too high on Smith all season, and I very well may be too high on him this week. What I'll say is, if he can't play better against this Commanders defense, which is allowing the most Fantasy points to opposing QBs, I'll finally give up on him. He should have his full complement of weapons available and has no excuse not to have a big game, especially if the Commanders can put up points on the other side. |
Top RBs |
DraftKings |
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The nice thing about White is, the fact that Tennessee has tended to be a tough matchup for running backs doesn't really matter so much for him, because he doesn't really do much in the running game anyway. His pass-catching role has kept him viable, as has the fact that he just doesn't have any competition for goal-line touches. And, if the Titans' defensive struggles over the past four games – they've allowed 159.5 rushing yards per game – do crop up, well, that's just icing on the cake. |
FanDuel |
- James Conner vs. ATL $6500
- Rachaad White vs. TEN $7000
- Alvin Kamara @MIN $8800
- Joe Mixon vs. HOU $7700
- Tony Pollard vs. NYG $7800
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Pollard is in a similar spot to Geno Smith, where if he can't thrive in this matchup, it might be time to give up hope that he'll ever be an elite Fantasy option this season. The Giants have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game this season on a healthy 4.6 yards per carry. The Cowboys are 16-point favorites, so the only real concern here is that the Cowboys will go up so big so early that they don't need Pollard. The scary thing is, you can count at least two instances where that's been the case already this season. The silver lining is, he did score two touchdowns the last time they faced the Giants, in a 40-0 win. |
Top WRs |
DraftKings |
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Johnson's price seems shockingly low for what we've seen from him since his return from a hamstring injury. Johnson is earning targets at a high rate like he usually does, but he's doing it while sporting a career-high 11.4 yard average depth of target for the season, which helps explain the flashes of upside we've seen – he has three straight games with 75-plus yards for the first time since November 2021. The Packers have some injuries in the defensive backfield that could make it an even more appealing matchup. |
FanDuel |
- Amon-Ra St. Brown @LAC $8600
- Chris Olave @MIN $7400
- Chris Godwin vs. TEN $6500
- Tank Dell @CIN $6400
- Diontae Johnson vs. GB $7000
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I'm a little worried the hype train is going to get out of control for Dell, who is just one game removed from just three catches for 16 yards. The Texans seem to want to spread the ball around, and there are definitely going to be weeks when Dell finds himself the odd man out. Coming off such a huge game, with Collins dealing with an injury, he could be one of the highest-rostered players on the slate. He could still be worth it. |
Top TEs |
DraftKings |
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I like McBride on both sites, but his price strikes me as more appealing on DraftKings. He was a significant bust last week, but I blame that more on Clayton Tune just being completely unprepared for the moment, as the entire Cardinals offense managed just 58 yards. I'm keeping expectations in check for Kyler Murray 's first game back, but I don't think it's asking too much from him to get this offense back to the level Joshua Dobbs had it at, and that should make McBride a must-start Fantasy option – the Cardinals have targeted their tight ends on 30% of their passes so far, a big number. McBride is well situated to be a top-12 TE the rest of the way, and his price doesn't reflect that. |
FanDuel |
- Evan Engram vs. SF $5600
- Sam LaPorta @LAC $6500
- T.J. Hockenson vs. NO $6600
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I feel like Engram might be viewed as a high-floor, low-ceiling play, but I really don't think that's fair. It's what he has been so far, sure, but that's mostly because he just hasn't found the end zone yet on 61 targets – he had four scores on 98 last season. With a bit better luck, Engram's upside would be fairly obvious, as he's having a better season than last year in pretty much every regard. |
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| | | | | | Saturday, with the College Football Playoffs right around the corner, the SEC on CBS is highlighted by a must-see top-15 matchup between Tennessee and Missouri. Live coverage begins at 3:30 PM ET. Watch on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live | | Sunday on CBS, it's a matchup between two legendary franchises when the Packers head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. Then, watch the Texans take on the Bengals. It all begins at 12:00 PM ET with JB and the guys getting you set for kickoff on The NFL Today. Watch on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Tune In |
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