| | | | Wednesday, November 25, 2020 | | Because we have three games Thursday, Wednesday's injury reports will loom especially large in the decision making process for Week 12. For instance, let's say you snagged Gus Edwards on waivers last night and have to choose between him and Raheem Mostert for one lineup spot. Mostert looks like he's going to be back from his knee injury in Week 12, but we don't know for sure just yet. However, if he's able to practice in full Wednesday, that may be enough to roll with him over Edwards. It's even tougher if you're deciding between Edwards and Chris Carson, who won't have an official practice designation until Thursday, likely in the afternoon. | | We'll have absolutely everything you need to know about from Wednesday around the NFL to help you make the most informed decision possible for Thursday, but right now we're in a bit of a holding pattern. And, by the way, that's especially true for Thursday's nightcap game between the Steelers and Ravens, which could be rescheduled if the Ravens have any more positive COVID tests. So, that'll be another thing to watch. | | For now, let's continue to prepare for Week 12 with the Fantasy Football Today team's latest preview content. Today's newsletter will be putting each position under the microscope, looking at the landscape and some of the toughest decisions ahead of Week 12, along with the latest injuries and news, some of Heath Cummings' notes from his preview of each position, and our consensus expert rankings. Let's make sure you've got the foundation you need before you need to lock in your lineups and make those tough decisions. | | And if you missed yesterday's newsletter, you can read out my thoughts on some of the biggest questions from our readers, plus make sure to check out Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart for your last-minute moves. Now, here's what you need to know for Week 12: Waiver Wire | Trade Values Chart | Cut List | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | Week 11 Winners and Losers | Believe It Or Not | | | Week 12 QB Preview
| | | | Those of you with Lamar Jackson on your roster are faced with a seemingly tough decision in Week 12 as he's set to take on the fierce Steelers defense. Given his struggles in what can only be described as a majorly disappointing season (Jackson ranks just 12th in points per game), shouldn't you sit him against this matchup? After all, the Steelers allow the third-fewest Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season and held Jackson to 18.8 points in their last matchup. However, it's worth noting that Jackson has rushed for 135 yards in two starts against the Steelers, and it's possible their aggressive pass rush might be especially poorly suited to slowing him down on the ground. He'll need to throw the ball better than he has against them, but if he's even decent, you'll probably regret sitting Jackson. Just a fair warning! | | Injuries and News | | Teddy Bridgewater (knee) will practice this week -- Bridgewater was pretty close to playing last week, warming up before being ruled out prior to kick off. That's no guarantee he'll be back for Sunday's game against the Vikings, but I would say it seems more likely than not at this point. And the matchup makes him a viable streamer. Kyler Murray (shoulder) is receiving treatment on the injury -- Murray got banged up last Thursday and was off to the side during Tuesday's practice session. However, he told reporters he is "fine" and will play Sunday against the Patriots. You don't need me to tell you he's an obvious must-start player. | | Numbers to Know | | 7.5% -- Matthew Stafford's pass catchers lead the NFL in drop rate. It's hard to start him unless Kenny Golladay returns. 297.8 -- Matt Ryan is third in passing yards per game. 30.6% -- Nick Mullens has been pressured on more than 30% of his drop backs and now he faces Aaron Donald and the Rams. 31 -- Derek Carr has scored at least 22 Fantasy points in six of the seven games in which he's attempted at least 31 passes. 50.8 -- Daniel Jones' rushing yards per game over his past five outings. 22.4 -- Philip Rivers has averaged 22.4 Fantasy points per game in his past five games. | | Consensus Expert Rankings | | Patrick Mahomes Kyler Murray Russell Wilson Justin Herbert Aaron Rodgers Deshaun Watson Ben Roethlisberger Lamar Jackson Matt Ryan Cam Newton Derek Carr Taysom Hill | | | Week 12 RB Preview
| | | | I saw David Willsey of DynastyLeagueFootball.com tweet earlier this week that five rookie running backs currently rank in the top-16 at the position in PPR scoring for the 2020 season -- James Robinson (RB4), Antonio Gibson (RB10), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB11), D'Andre Swift (RB15) and Jonathan Taylor (RB16). And, while he meant it as a sign of how valuable those players have been, my first thought when I saw that was, "Has running back really been this bad?" While Robinson has been an elite player all year and Gibson has been consistently reliable for a while now, I don't think anyone has looked at Taylor and Swift and thought, "Boy, am I glad I have them on my team" for most of the season. | | Part of their lofty ranks has to do with the fact that Swift's absence from Week 11 represented the first time any of them have missed a game, of course, while the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson, Raheem Mostert, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb have all missed at least four games. But it's interesting, because moving forward, I actually think all five have the chance to finish very strong. Taylor is coming off his best game of the season and has every opportunity to pull away from his three-way backfield split, and Swift had already done that before missing Week 11 with a concussion. And watch out for Gibson, who just needs to shave a few targets from J.D. McKissic every week to be an absolute star. There's a decent chance that's exactly what he is down the stretch, beginning with Week 12, as he gets another shot against the Cowboys after he rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown in their Week 7 matchup. | | Injuries and News | | D'Andre Swift (concussion) was limited at practice -- That's a good sign, but it isn't a guarantee. Swift has to be cleared through the league's protocol, and that's a process with pretty rigid rules. If he can get through the protocol by Thursday he'll play, but it's something we may not know until Thursday morning. If he plays, he's a must-start against the Texans, but have a contingency plan in place. Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) is expected to practice this week -- Matt Rhule referred to him as "week to week" Monday, so I would still expect McCaffrey to sit this one out -- the looming bye in Week 13 might make it an easier call to give him an extra week. If McCaffrey plays, you're starting him, obviously, but I wouldn't count on it just yet. Mike Davis will get another start if McCaffrey is out again. Chris Carson (foot) was back at practice Tuesday -- As expected, Carson looks like he'll be able to return. Assuming he can avoid any setbacks, Carson should be back in his lead role Monday against the Eagles. The only issue is the Seahawks won't release their first injury report for Week 12 until Thursday, so if you're choosing between Carson and someone like Swift or Gibson playing Thursday, you may not have all of the information you need. Austin Ekeler (hamstring) is expected to return to practice this week -- Ekeler will be designated to return from IR, and there's a chance he'll be cleared to return Sunday against the Bills. If he is able to play, Ekeler will be in your lineup, but don't count on it just yet. Week 13 against the Patriots seems like a better bet. Lamical Perine (ankle) was placed on IR -- Josh Adams was signed to back up Frank Gore, who should be the lead back for however long Perine is out. Given that it's a high-ankle sprain, there's no guarantee he'll be back for the Fantasy season, so it's safe to drop him. The 49ers designated Jeff Wilson (ankle) and Raheem Mostert (knee) for return from IR -- The plan for the past few weeks has been for Mostert to come back after the bye, and it looks like that's still the case. It's not guaranteed, but we'll learn more throughout the week. If Mostert returns, he figures to be back to the role that saw him average 113.3 yards per game despite leaving two of his four appearances with injuries. He could be an impact player down the stretch. Rashaad Penny (knee/PUP) could practice in Week 13 -- Penny will probably need several weeks of practice to be cleared to play, but there is an outside shot he'll be able to contribute for the 2020 Fantasy season. He's only worth stashing in deep leagues, but it's something to watch down the stretch. | | Numbers to Know | | 0 -- Taysom Hill's first start was the first game of Alvin Kamara's career without a catch. 9 -- James White had nine targets in Week 11. 8.4 -- Chargers running backs are averaging 8.4 targets per game. 3.4 -- Damien Harris is averaging 3.4 yards before contact per attempt. That's third-best among running backs. 5 -- Salvon Ahmed caught five passes in Week 11; he only caught one in the two games prior. | | Consensus Expert Rankings | | Alvin Kamara Dalvin Cook Josh Jacobs Aaron Jones Derrick Henry Mike Davis James Robinson Nick Chubb Miles Sanders Kareem Hunt Ezekiel Elliott James Conner Antonio Gibson Giovani Bernard Clyde Edwards-Helaire Damien Harris Salvon Ahmed J.D. McKissic Nyheim Hines Todd Gurley Chase Edmonds Kenyan Drake Jonathan Taylor Duke Johnson | | | Week 12 WR Preview
| | | | I've written a lot about wide receivers like Adam Thielen, D.J. Moore and Justin Jefferson this season, because I think it's a class of receiver that is pretty underrated for Fantasy. Everyone wants consistent production from their starters, but if you're a consistent wide receiver, you're probably one of the truly elite guys at the position. Everyone else will have plenty of ups and downs, and guys like Thielen, Moore and Jefferson who rely more on hitting on big plays down the field tend to frustrate Fantasy players more because when they hit, the upside is so huge. It makes the let-down games feel even worse. But the reason you live with the four-catches-in-two-games stretch from Moore, for example, is that he's capable of 11 catches for 223 yards and a touchdown the next two games. A few players in that mold who could be in line for breakout performances in Week 12 and beyond? DeVante Parker, Denzel Mims, D.J. Chark and Jerry Jeudy, all of whom rank in the top five in football over the past three weeks in targets thrown at least 15 yards downfield. | | Injuries and News | | Adam Thielen (Reserve/COVID-19 list) tested negative after testing positive -- It could have been a false-positive for Thielen in his initial test, in other words. Or the subsequent test could have been a false-negative. We should know more today, but right now it looks like his status is legitimately up in the air for Week 12. If he is confirmed to have tested positive, Thielen would miss Week 12 and possibly longer, so there's a lot riding on this. Terry McLaurin (ankle) was limited at practice -- This is a new injury for McLaurin, but there hasn't been any indication that it might keep him out for Week 12. We'll watch out Wednesday, but right now, it doesn't look like there is any reason to panic. Kenny Golladay (hip) did not practice -- The Lions didn't practice Monday, but they estimated that he would have been limited if they had. So much for that. I don't think this necessarily means he suffered a setback; it probably just means that Monday designation didn't mean much. Golladay could still play, and getting back to practice Wednesday would be a first step, but I wouldn't plan on having him at this point. JuJu Smith-Schuster (foot) was limited at practice -- Mike Tomlin downplayed the injury Sunday but did indicate that the short week would complicate things. That he was out there Tuesday is a good sign, but you'll want to make sure he gets through Wednesday -- and hopefully ramps up his work -- before you'll feel OK about his chances to play. After a disappointing start, Smith-Schuster had 31 catches for 322 yards and two touchdowns in four games before Week 11, so let's hope he can get back on track. John Brown (ankle) did not practice Tuesday -- It's worth noting that teams don't typically practice Tuesday unless they are coming off a bye week, and this isn't an official injury designation for Week 12 yet. However, it's a bad sign coming off the bye, and you should plan on Brown not playing. If he does, great, he's a low-end No. 2 WR; if not, Cole Beasley is an interesting starting option in a great matchup against the Chargers. Randall Cobb (toe) did not practice -- It seems like Cobb is likely to miss Week 12 against the Lions, and a trip to the IR is entirely possible. That could create more opportunity for Kenny Stills, but the more likely beneficiary will be tight end Jordan Akins, who can take on more of the intermediate and short-area targets in the middle of the field. He's an interesting sleeper. | | Numbers to Know | | 17.6% -- Chris Godwin's target share since Antonio Brown arrived in Tampa Bay. 158 -- Ryan Finley averaged 158 yards passing in three starts last year. 42.21% -- Adam Thielen is responsible for 42.21% of the Vikings air yards, the second-highest mark in the league. 84.48% -- Curtis Samuel's catch rate, No. 1 among wide receivers. 11.7 -- Corey Davis has scored at least 11.7 PPR points in every game but one this season. | | Consensus Expert Rankings | | DeAndre Hopkins Davante Adams Keenan Allen Tyreek Hill Calvin Ridley Terry McLaurin DK Metcalf JuJu Smith-Schuster A.J. Brown Will Fuller Diontae Johnson Tyler Lockett Brandin Cooks D.J. Moore Amari Cooper Mike Evans Chris Godwin Cooper Kupp Tyler Boyd Chase Claypool Michael Thomas Justin Jefferson Tee Higgins Christian Kirk | | Week 12 TE Preview | | | | Week 11 looked like what we were hoping the tight end position would be this season, as 11 players at the position had at least 12 PPR points, including guys like Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry, Eric Ebron and Jonnu Smith who had been disappointments to date. That may not be the start of a trend, but we can hope, can't we? | | Injuries and News | | Greg Olsen (foot) was placed on IR -- Olsen's season isn't necessarily finished despite his ruptured plantar fascia, but I'd bet against him playing meaningful snaps again. It will be interesting to see if Will Dissly will get a chance to be a bigger part of the offense. He hasn't done much this season, his first back from a ruptured Achilles, but he is averaging 9.6 yards per target on his limited opportunities, right in line with his excellent career mark of 10. Dissly is an intriguing sleeper down the stretch. | | Numbers to Know | | 5.18 -- Yards per target for Evan Engram this year. That ranks 40th out of 42 NFL players with at least 60 targets. 9 -- Targets inside the 10 for Jimmy Graham this season. That's the most among tight ends. 16.2% -- Touchdown rate for Robert Tonyan this season. In a word, that's unsustainable. 12.1 -- Average depth of target for Mike Gesicki, the highest for a tight end. 87% -- Snap share for Hayden Hurst in Week 11 when he caught zero passes, his highest of the season. | | Consensus Expert Rankings | | Travis Kelce Darren Waller Mark Andrews T.J. 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