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| Wednesday, November 20, 2024 |
| It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! Today's matchups will be pass-game-centric, with Thursday's newsletter focused more on the run game. |
| Before we dive in, here are a few reminders for the FFT fam: |
| 1. If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here! |
| 2. This Thursday's Beyond the Box Score guest will be Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals! |
| LONG INTRO ALERT -- Feel free to skip ahead to the sicko stuff at the end! |
| Each week, I clone the previous week's newsletter post so that the formatting is already in place for me. This also gives me an opportunity to be reflective, as I'm forced to contend with the previous week's observations as I clear them to make way for the upcoming week's best guesses. As I cleared out last week's work, I remembered that I declared "Nico goes nuts or I quit my job." |
| He did not go nuts! In fact, the fashion in which he did not felt almost like a taunt to me, personally, for writing such a title, as I watched several projected Fantasy football wins turn into losses on Monday night. |
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| Of course, the unfulfilled Fantasy promise of Nico's 2024 season has not a thing to do with me, and any suffering that I feign is simply a mockery of the times when we choose to dramaticize the daily happenings of the universe and take the seat of the victim. Of course. How could you take me seriously? |
| Maybe it did feel personal for you! You invested in Collins, and maybe you needed a big game from him! What can we do about it, though? It was always out of our hands. If we feel like the process was good, any further lingering on the past is only going to lead to actual suffering, right? It's one thing to reflect, but what good does it do to let lingering questions of "why" simmer when the reason is clearly beyond our scope of understanding and we have already convinced ourselves of sound process? "Why do I have to suffer so much?" I think maybe I don't! |
| You can do what you want, I don't claim to know what process is right for you. If it feels personal and you want to cling to those feelings, that's your choice to make. |
| It is also your choice to take me seriously or not, but I will let you know that I am rarely intending to be taken seriously. Right now, I am just looking for ways to have fun and keep moving. This newsletter helps me with that. Nico Collins helps with that. He's awesome, and even though he did not make the triumphant return as savior that many of my Fantasy teams needed, it was great to see him healthy and striding past defenders to the end zone. Hopefully he and C.J. Stroud start to feel like their 2023 selves soon. |
| I do have fun in this space, and I will keep pressing onward even after declaring that anything less than a triumphant return from Collins would push me over the edge. I am a liar. I told you, I am not to be taken seriously. And besides, who wants to be bummed about another bunch of brutal losses on another maddening Monday night? Not me! There is plenty to celebrate from Week 11! Week 11 was pretty dang dope! Seriously! Drake Maye is an absolute joy to watch! Those darn Chiefs finally lost! It's fun to watch Josh Allen do his thing. |
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| The Nico Collins declaration wasn't the only thing that I remembered upon reviewing last week's Wednesday Matchup Notes! I also membered that I was bold enough to predict an Anthony Richardson bounce-back in the headline of the newsletter! And what a bounce-back it was! |
| We hit on another big Jauan Jennings game against a press-heavy Seahawks coverage scheme, and Jennings rewarded the FFT faithful with Fantasy points and fantastically fun film (Week 11 Twitter thread)! There was too much dope stuff given to us by the football gods to cling to the Monday night disappointment. |
| And I do recognize that celebrating being right about these players invites personal attachment, which may feel hypocritical after I just shared my thoughts regarding the Nico Collins outcome not affecting me. I want to clarify -- I don't attempt to disconnect any personal attachment to the players or the outcomes. I am doing my personal best in trying to predict the outcomes, after all! |
| The distinction that I am about to make is a matter of discernment, in my opinion. Just as we are able to discern "good" plays from "bad" plays, in terms of their relative probability of "hitting," I believe we are capable of reflecting and discerning good and bad process. If we discern that our process was good, I believe it is natural to take pride in that and celebrate it when the results match. In the same way, when the process was bad and the results were bad, I believe it is natural to take that personally. A problem exists that needs addressing. How about when the process is good but the results are bad? I honestly believe it is insane to cling to and agonize over those results. We can only control our choices and our process. The only healthy way to partake in a chaotic existence where results are often out of our control seems, to me, to be to let bad results go and not take them personally, as long as we feel true in good process. |
| It seems good to reflect. I'm not so sure that it is good to brood. |
| I know that you did not pay good money to be here today subjugated to the ramblings of a Fantasy football fake therapist; again, I do not claim to know what is best for you. I do not intend to give personal advice. I'm here to give Fantasy football advice, that's what they pay me the big bucks for. But I also recognize that we are in the twelfth week of this bumpy ride, and I thought that I might be able to offer some needed assurance -- it is all good, the ride will end, life will go on afterwards -- to anyone who feels like we're in the doldrums here. |
| I say that I do not intend to give advice because I do not know you and I certainly do not know what is right for you. I offer assurance because I do believe that I know that it is all good! I believe that it is our choice to see good, and I will choose to continue to do that. I hope that doesn't annoy, but I can't possibly know how to placate every single person who might be annoyed by good intentions. They can choose to skip long intros when they see them. It's a long and chaotic season, and that chaos offers awesome and unexpected moments at every turn for any who have a perspective that allows an appreciation for such moments. I've often missed out on those moments because I let myself become so bogged down with the way the circumstances of any given season may have affected my ego as it clings to a perfectionistic view of "success" validating me in predicting what might happen on this wild ride. It's pretty silly, right? Through my own insecurity and need for validation, I bastardize the very thing that brought me joy and warp it into a source of suffering. |
| Each year, I choose to take a seat on this wild ride. And at this stage in my life, I have reverted to my original goal: enjoy the ride. I hope that I can illuminate the moments that I enjoy and maybe share some of that joy with you! |
| Maybe your goals go beyond simply enjoying the ride. Love it! Godspeed! I am here to help! I absolutely still take pride in my work and helping you win Fantasy championships or accomplish whatever your goals may be. |
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| At the very least, I can keep feeding you some stats that you probably have not seen before. |
| Under Pressure -- how might blitz/pressure rates impact Week 12? |
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Xavier Worthy get-right spot?
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| The Xavier Worthy experience has often not been a fun one. From a long-term perspective, there are a lot of really concerning underlying data points for Kansas City's Round 1 rookie receiver. In the short-term, he has an opportunity to make good on his opportunities in a Week 12 matchup vs. Carolina. |
| Patrick Mahomes has been really sensitive to pressure in 2024. The Panthers present the easiest matchup there is, in terms of pass rush competency. That's good news for Mahomes, Worthy, and the Chiefs pass-game pieces as a whole. |
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| The trust level between Mahomes and Worthy seems low, unsurprisingly. It's borne out in the data. We could see the Chiefs look to get some momentum going between the offense's primary deep threat connection in a relatively low-pressure Week 12 environment. |
| This is a terrifying spot to trust Carolina's pass-catchers for Fantasy |
| Bryce Young has the lowest catchable target rate (35%) when pressured, and Kansas City's defense has the fastest time to pressure (2.3 seconds) and 12th-highest pressure rate (37%). Bryce has been getting the ball out quicker in his second stint as starter, but he still has yet to post a time to throw below 2.5 seconds in a game. If he's not able to operate a quick game or diagnose blitzes from Steve Spagnuolo, it could be a miserable offensive showing for the Panthers. |
| We have a three-start sample size of Young back at QB with rookies Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker leading the receiving room, and it has been those two that Young has locked in on when blitzed. The Chiefs have the league's third-highest blitz rate. When Bryce has been blitzed over the past three weeks, he's fed a 29% target share to Legette and a 27% share to Coker. As always, these stats are courtesy of the invaluable Fantasy Points Data Suite. |
| Can Caleb Williams keep the momentum going? |
| The universe couldn't have been much more cruel in picking a follow-up spot after we saw some positive developments for the Chicago Bears offense in Week 11. (You can watch some Bears film here!) |
| The Vikes rank second in blitz rate (39%) and fifth in Fantasy Points Data's pressure rate over expectation. Only the Chiefs, Browns, and Dolphins have a quicker time to pressure than Minnesota. |
| Williams is the only QB who can compete with Bryce Young for the crown when it comes to ineptitude vs. pressure in 2024. A simplified offensive system may help with that, but the bottom line is that Williams has his work carved out for him in a matchup against Brian Flores. I'm exercising extreme caution with any Bears players in Week 12. |
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| What can we expect from Minnesota vs. Chicago's defense? |
| The Bears now have a bottom-10 opponent pass rate over expectation, meaning that opposing offenses have chosen to run at a relatively high rate vs. Chicago's defense. Each of the past three opposing offenses have posted negative PROE, potentially in an effort to avoid a dangerous Montez Sweat-led pass rush. Even with just a 25% blitz rate (23rd-highest), the Bears have the sixth-highest pressure rate (37.7%). |
| The Vikings have a relatively low Vegas-implied point total (21.5) in Week 12, and the over/under in this game is the second-lowest of the week, so the betting market does not appear confident in either QB. I'd expect both offenses to lean run-first when possible. The peripheral data for Jordan Addison has been good lately, but I'd be hesitant to trust any Vikings pass-catcher not named Justin Jefferson in this matchup. |
| Let's talk about Philly's defense |
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| Vic Fangio's Eagles defense is on a wild run right now. I ranked both Rams receivers in my top-10 for Week 12, and that was met with some pushback. Naturally, Eagles fans are feeling pretty hot right about now. |
| Just look at the WR performances vs. Philly's defense since the Week 5 bye. |
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| Here's another wild Fangio graphic: Philly's game-by-game defensive blitz rate and pressure generated. |
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| The Eagles blitzed the crap out of Deshaun Watson coming out of the bye but then have scaled things back in a massive way. Over the past five games, this defense has an 11% blitz rate! The league average blitz rate is 28%, and the Jaguars have the lowest rate on the year, at 15%. After posting a blitz rate of 22.6% or higher in the first five games, the Eagles defense was below that in each of the following five. |
| Between Josh Sweat, Moro Ojomo, and Brandon Graham, the Eagles have the personnel to create pressure without blitzing. Sweat's pressure rate on non-blitzes ranks 17th out of 145 qualified pass rushers. |
| I bring this up because it feels particularly problematic for Stafford. He's been great at diagnosing and picking apart the blitz, but it's a different story when defenses actually get pressure on him. In fact, Stafford' off-target rate when pressured (37%) is the highest in the NFL. Only Jameis Winston and Will Levis have a higher turnover worthy throw when pressured. |
| Some quarterbacks completely implode vs. pressure. That's basically where we're at with Caleb. He seems shook. His first-read target rate is at the very bottom against pressure, his turnover-worthy throw is actually not that high, and his "hero throw" rate is low. Those stats paint the picture of one who is not willing to risk it for the biscuit, which is absolutely not the case for Stafford. His first-read target rate is actually the fifth-highest vs. pressure. Stafford has stood in and pressed the launch button when pressured, which is reflected in relatively decent per-route data for his receivers when he's under pressure. Particularly, Puka Nacua has a 30% target per route run rate and 2.74 yard per route run rate when Stafford has been pressured. Only Christian Watson and A.J. Brown have higher YPRR rates vs. pressure. Typically, we see rates go way down for players when their QB is pressured. |
| I'm honestly worried about pressure affecting both quarterbacks in this game, but the over/under is high (49.5 points), and the spread is close (Eagles are favored by 2.5), so the most-likely outcome is apparently a shootout. If you want to shy away from the receivers in this game based on what Philly's defense has done to the WR position over the past month, I can't blame you. I view Nacua as a locked-in elite option and Kupp is pretty dang close. Let's talk about the Eagles offense. |
| Week 12 Coverage Data |
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| Maybe we see more passing from Philly |
| In the graphic displaying Philly's recent decline in blitz rate, you may have noticed the six-straight wins. Combine that with a schedule that has brought several defenses that present a more advantageous matchup on the ground than through the air, and the result has been extreme run-heaviness from the Eagles offense. |
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| Maybe we see Philly take flight more against the Rams. Even though the Rams also look like a bit of a run-funnel defense, the potential for this game to turn into a shootout leaves the door open for the Eagles to take to the air. The most-likely outcome is probably that the Eagles do go run-heavy to mitigate L.A.'s pass rush. But if it turns into a back-and-forth affair or Philly happens to fall into an early lead, we could see A.J. Brown put up video game numbers. |
| Brown's yard per route run rate in 2024 would be by far the best mark of his thus-far very illustrious career. Only Nico Collins has a higher rate. It's flown a bit under the radar because the Eagles haven't had to produce high route running totals. Maybe we see that change in Week 12. |
| He can torch any defense, but this particular matchup is exciting for AJB in the scenario where the Eagles were forced to take to the dropback game more often. The Rams rank ninth in the NFL in single-high safety use (56%) and have a league-high Fantasy point per dropback rate surrendered when using single-high coverage. |
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| Of course, AJB torches single-high. Defenses need as much help as possible to contain him. This Rams defense has struggled to contain just about any receivers who don't play for the Miami Dolphins. I'm sorry, I know it hurts. The trio of Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, and DeMario Douglas caught 14 of 18 targets for 163 yards against this defense last week! How could we not get more from Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill in Week 10?! |
| The outlook for AJB is volatile. The Eagles might not take to the air much, and if/when that does happen, the young Rams pass rush could cause mayhem. There's upside for a record-setting type of day if this game turns into a shootout, though. Do what you will with that information. |
| Maybe some of us are a bit too critical of young Marvin Harrison Jr. |
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| I pay to support Matt's work, I absolutely believe it is worth it. |
| You can find the Reception Perception Rookie WR Report right here! |
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| What if we shifted our perspective? Rather than judging MHJ through the lens of his Fantasy football ADP (which is totally fair to do, by the way, that is the game that we are playing), what if we judged him based on what he has done. He has been asked to go win all on his own on the outside while being double-covered at an unprecedentedly high rate. That's a tough ask for at least 90% of NFL wide receivers, not even specific to rookies. He's been asked to do it as a first-time pro who turned 22 years old in August. And he has averaged 13 PPR points per game doing it. That's not amazing production, but it's right in between George Pickens (13.0) and Courtland Sutton (12.3) who are vets playing similar roles. |
| I'm pretty impressed with what Harrison Jr. has accomplished, and I believe there's a real chance that we see him continue to elevate his statistical offering in the second-half of his rookie season. The connection between him and Murray has improved as the year has gone on, and we have seen Arizona's coaching staff do more to help Harrison find his footing and establish himself within the flow of the offense. |
| In the first game out of a Week 11 bye, the Cardinals draw a Seahawks defense that presents perfectly for MHJ. Seattle just got bullied by Jauan Jennings (MHJ is not at his level physically yet) and were cooked by Demarcus Robinson before that. Darius Slayton torched Seattle's corners in press coverage to the tune of 8-122-1 in Week 5. This is a winnable matchup. |
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| Enjoy 86 seconds of Marvin Harrison Jr. cooking press cover corners. |
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| Downs with the sickness once again |
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| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday; you can find those on YouTube! |
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| | | | | Big Ten | | NWSL Championship | Penn State remains in the top 4 and hopes to stay there, while Minnesota hopes to pull off an upset. Watch them battle live on Saturday at 3:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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