| |  | | Tuesday, November 23, 2021 | | There was a point where the Giants offense looked kind of interesting, I swear. I don't think I was hallucinating, Daniel Jones actually looked pretty good early on in the season -- he had a 400-yard game and was averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, and Kenny Golladay all had 100-yard games! It happened! You can look it up yourself! | | Of course, that feels like an awfully long time ago at this point. The Giants managed just 215 yards of total offense Monday against the Buccaneers despite having basically everyone back and healthy after a pretty terrible stretch of injuries. It just didn't matter in Week 11, as they dropped to 3-7 with a 30-10 loss, and looking ahead to Week 12, I'm not sure there's anyone on this offense you can trust at this point as a Fantasy starter outside of Saquon Barkley. | | And it feels like there are an awful lot of teams like that right now, with just one or no players Fantasy players can feel good about: The Texans, obviously, but also the Titans with A.J. Brown dealing with a chest injury; The Jaguars qualify, as do the Saints, Jets, and Falcons. That's an awful lot of teams you can mostly cross of for Fantasy purposes, and with the Cowboys likely missing both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, they're probably not far off either. | This has been a decidedly strange season of Fantasy football so far, and we entered Week 12 with a ton of questions, both of the injury and non-injury variety. That is, of course, an even bigger problem than usual this week with three games on Thanksgiving this Thursday. It's going to be tough to put together a lineup you feel good about this week, but maybe you can find some help on the waiver wire. | | | | And here's what we've got on tap in today's newsletter: | - ➕Top Week 12 Waiver Wire Targets
- 📈Week 12 Rankings📉
| | | | ➕Top Week 12 Waiver Wire Targets |  | Hopefully, this week's waiver options will be able to make an impact, and there are a few who certainly have the opportunity. You can find Jamey's entire breakdown here. We're gonna need the help: | | Jamey Eisenberg's top targets | - Elijah Moore, WR, NYJ (51%) -- Moore is the obvious top option on waivers this week. He's got pedigree as a early-round rookie, and the breakout many anticipated back in the summer looks like it's actually happening. The only question coming off his eight-catch, 141-yard torching of Miami is whether Zach Wilson (expected to come back from his knee injury this week) can play well enough to sustain Moore's breakout. It's kind of wild that we're asking that question of a No. 2 overall pick when Moore just dazzled with Joe Flacco at QB, so hopefully that question turns out to have been as silly as it seems.
- Ty Johnson, RB, NYJ (20%) -- With Michael Carter likely to miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury, Johnson could be in line for a big enough role to make him a viable starting Fantasy option. He's shown promise as a PPR option over the past five games, with 19 catches fo 220 yards as Carter's backup, so hopefully, he'll see an even bigger role with Carter out. Tevin Coleman also figures to see an increased role, but Johnson's pass catching makes him the bigger priority.
- Dontrell Hilliard , RB, TEN (0%) -- It was surprising to see Hilliard step up in such a big way in Jeremy McNichols' absence in Week 11, as he played 63% of the snaps and caught eight of the 10 passes thrown his way. Partially, that was a game script thing, as the Titans found themselves throwing the ball 50-plus times, but I wouldn't be surprised if they found themselves in a similar spot against the Patriots, given their injury issues at wide receiver.
- Kadarius Toney, WR, Giants (55%) -- Toney didn't do much with them, but we can't ignore a team-high 12 targets Monday against the Buccaneers. With Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley both active, Toney remained a focal point, and that's a good sign even with the Giants offense as a whole continuing to look pretty mediocre. Toney has a ton of potential, and if they're going to feature him down the stretch, he could be a difference-maker right there with Moore. I've got more faith in Moore, but Toney is a nice player to have around for a potential breakout, too.
- Evan Engram, TE, NYG (39%) -- Evan Engram is persona non grata to most Fantasy players, but you might want to get over it for Week 12 because he's facing the Eagles. I usually don't put much credence in "Fantasy points vs. position" stats, especially for tight end, because so much is dependent on schedule and other factors that the defense doesn't really control, but there really might be something to the Eagles' struggles against tight ends. They've given up the most Fantasy points per game to tight ends, and we're not talking about just the studs. They've given up double-digit PPR points to Adam Trautman, Noah Fant, Albert Okwuegbunam, Stephen Anderson, and Donald Parham , and that's just over the past three weeks. If Engram was ever not going to let you down, it's against this matchup. There's no question about it, I am ready to get hurt again.
| | | | A few other options ... | - A 2-QB league streamer: Andy Dalton, CHI (1%) -- Look, I'm not any more excited about it than you, but Dalton's got an incredible matchup on a short week against the Lions, and he's got Darnell Mooney, who looks to be making a big leap. My expectations aren't terribly high for Dalton, but if you're in a 2QB league, he's worth adding, and I very well may start him in at least one such league.
- A boom-or-bust WR target: Marquez Valdes-Scantling , GB (11%) -- MVS may be on your personal "never again" list because we've been here before with him. But he is coming off a season-high 81% snap share in Week 11 after catching four passes for 123 yards and a touchdown. He's been a frustrating player throughout his career -- Aaron Rodgers has shared your frustrations -- but with WR looking like kind of a mess right now, maybe you can use the upside.
- The highest-upside TE: Logan Thomas , WAS (52%) -- I've had Thomas here two weeks in a row, ever since he was designated for return from IR. However, he is finally making his return to practice this week, which means he has a real chance of returning in Week 12. Hopefully he's ready to hit the ground running and can re-emerge as the reliable No. 2 option to Terry McLaurin that this offense desperately needs.
| | 📈Week 12 Rankings📉 |  | Here's where things stand for me in my first run through of the Week 12 rankings for PPR leagues. You can find Jamey, Dave, and Heath's rankings right here: | | | | Quarterbacks | | Something strange is going on with passing games around the NFL. Surely, you've sensed it, too. You saw the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott all fail to score even 10 points in six-point-per-pass-TD leagues, with Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow, and Matt Ryan all putting up poor performances as well. This was not a one-week thing, either. | | In fact, we've seen a dip in QB play for a month straight, maybe more. In Week 5, NFL quarterbacks collectively posted a passer rating of 96.1, with 8.0 yards per target; they haven't hit either of those marks since. In fact, that hasn't come close: The highest league-wide passer rating since Week 5 is just 92.8, while the highest Y/A is an abysmal 7.13, both in Week 7. | | Over the past four weeks, quarterbacks have been above 7.0 yards per attempt just once; for context, the league average in 2020 was 7.2, and 22 of 35 qualified QBs were above 7.0. League-wide, touchdown rates are down to 4.2% since Week 6, compared to 4.9% through the first five games; interception rates are similarly up from 2.1% through five games to 2.5% since. | | These are pretty significant changes to have occurred in the middle of the season, and it's hard to come up with one good explanation for why, though I do think there is one possible answer. Along with those drops in overall production, we've also seen intended air yards per target fall from 8.2 through five weeks to 7.5 since. Now, we've seen teams like the Bills and Chiefs be periodically flummoxed by teams looking to take away the deep ball, and it's fair to wonder if that might not be happening more and more around the league. If opposing defenses are more willing to play soft coverage and allow teams to try to move the chains with short passes and runs rather than in chunks, that could have a pretty profound effect on the way the position plays moving forward, potentially in favor of rushing quarterbacks even more. | | Or maybe it's just a weird fluke. Smarter folks than me will have to figure that one out. All I know is, right now, the QB position isn't what it used to be, and with Dak Prescott likely playing without his top two options and Kyler Murray and Mahomes on a bye, that may not change in Week 12, either. | - Lamar Jackson vs. CLE
- Tom Brady @IND
- Jalen Hurts @NYG
- Josh Allen @NO
- Justin Herbert @DEN
- Matthew Stafford @GB
- Aaron Rodgers vs. LAR
- Dak Prescott vs. LV
- Tua Tagovailoa vs. CAR
- Cam Newton @MIA
- Kirk Cousins @SF
- Joe Burrow vs. PIT
- Russell Wilson @WAS
- Carson Wentz vs. TB
- Tyrod Taylor vs. NYJ
- Teddy Bridgewater vs. LAC
- Taylor Heinicke vs. SEA
- Ben Roethlisberger @CIN
- Derek Carr @DAL
- Matt Ryan @JAX
- Daniel Jones vs. PHI
- Mac Jones vs. TEN
- Ryan Tannehill @NE
- Jimmy Garoppolo vs. MIN
| | Running backs | | Week 11 saw the return of three big-name running backs from injury, and while it was nice to see Saquon Barkley, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Miles Sanders back on the field, I'm not sure we saw enough from any of the three to feel great about starting them in your Fantasy Football lineups in Week 12. | | Well, you definitely won't be starting Edwards-Helaire this week with the Chiefs on a bye, so that's one decision made for you. But Barkley returned Monday to a Giants offense that looked as hapless as ever, and he finished with just 25 rushing yards on six carries; six catches for 31 yards salvaged his game to a certain extent, and that's probably enough to make him worth starting for Week 12 against the Eagles in PPR leagues. But it's hard to feel too confident in him. | | And it's even harder to feel confident in Miles Sanders. Sanders did lead the team with 94 yards on 16 carries, but he was targeted just once and was actually out-carried by Jordan Howard in the first half, 9-8. Howard is likely to miss Sunday's game against the Giants with a sprained MCL, which should lock Sanders into enough of a rule to be worth starting in a good matchup, but it's another situation where you wish you felt better about him after awaiting his return. In Sanders' case, more so because of role questions than anything else. | | We could see the returns of Alvin Kamara, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kareem Hunt this week, so that'll be one thing to watch out for this week. Additionally, it looks like Michael Carter will miss at least a few weeks with a high-ankle sprain, so add the Jets to the list of teams with uncertainty in the backfield -- a list that also features the Patriots, Bills, Titans, Texans, Ravens, and Falcons, at least. | | There are a lot of question marks at RB this week, but here's my first crack at the rankings. | - Christian McCaffrey @MIA
- Jonathan Taylor vs. TB
- Najee Harris @CIN
- Austin Ekeler @DEN
- D'Andre Swift vs. CHI
- Dalvin Cook @SF
- Joe Mixon vs. PIT
- AJ Dillon vs. LAR
- Leonard Fournette @IND
- Cordarrelle Patterson @JAX
- David Montgomery @DET
- Ezekiel Elliott vs. LV
- Darrell Henderson @GB
- Saquon Barkley vs. PHI
- James Robinson vs. ATL
- Mark Ingram vs. BUF
- Nick Chubb @BAL
- Myles Gaskin vs. CAR
- Kareem Hunt @BAL
- Antonio Gibson vs. SEA
- Josh Jacobs @DAL
- Miles Sanders @NYG
- Jeff Wilson vs. MIN
- Tony Pollard vs. LV
- Ty Johnson @HOU
- Melvin Gordon vs. LAC
- Javonte Williams vs. LAC
- Zack Moss @NO
- Alex Collins @WAS
- David Johnson vs. NYJ
- Devonta Freeman vs. CLE
- D'Onta Foreman @NE
- Rhamondre Stevenson vs. TEN
- Damien Harris vs. TEN
- Dontrell Hilliard @NE
- Kenyan Drake @DAL
- Latavius Murray vs. CLE
- Devin Singletary @NO
- J.D. McKissic vs. SEA
- Jamaal Williams vs. CHI
- Nyheim Hines vs. TB
- Tevin Coleman @HOU
- Trey Sermon vs. MIN
- Devontae Booker vs. PHI
- Alexander Mattison @SF
- Rex Burkhead vs. NYJ
- Adrian Peterson @NE
- Brandon Bolden vs. TEN
| | Wide receivers | | All that issues at the QB position of late? It should come as no surprise that they've also harmed the wide receiver position. I saw someone tweet Monday that Tre'Quan Smith was WR18 from Weeks 8 through 11, and while I knew he had played four games while many other WR had played just three in that span, I still expected to see Smith had put up surprisingly good numbers. That wasn't the case -- 48.5 yards per game on 3.8 catches, with two touchdowns. That's aggressively mediocre, and yet it was still good for WR30 in points per game, too! | | And it's really the middle class at wide receiver that has been affected. There are 17 wide receivers averaging at least 15 PPR points over the past four weeks, compared to 20 who did that during the 2020 season; not one for one, but not far off. However, there are just 28 who have averaged at least 12, compared to 41 in 2020. That is a pretty massive difference. | | I'm not sure what the explanation is. Injuries are part of it, but not enough to explain that big of a difference. The drop in overall passing production is obviously a big part of it, but it's curious that it hasn't hit the elite tier at the position quite as hard. | | Whatever the explanation, it's created a Fantasy landscape where I really don't feel great about the WR3 range, which is surprising since this was supposed to be the deepest position in Fantasy. However, once I get to the Darnell Mooney/HunterRenfrow/Odell Beckham range of the rankings, I really don't feel all that comfortable with them. There's upside there, but also a lot of weekly risk. It's a surprising place to find ourselves in Week 12, and the likely absence of both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper Thursday isn't going to help. | - Davante Adams vs. LAR
- Cooper Kupp @GB
- Justin Jefferson @SF
- Keenan Allen @DEN
- Deebo Samuel vs. MIN
- Stefon Diggs @NO
- Chris Godwin @IND
- Diontae Johnson @CIN
- Terry McLaurin vs. SEA
- Mike Evans @IND
- Ja'Marr Chase vs. PIT
- D.K. Metcalf @WAS
- Tyler Lockett @WAS
- Marquise Brown vs. CLE
- D.J. Moore @MIA
- A.J. Brown @NE
- Brandin Cooks vs. NYJ
- Jaylen Waddle vs. CAR
- Elijah Moore @HOU
- Jerry Jeudy vs. LAC
- Michael Pittman vs. TB
- Adam Thielen @SF
- Chase Claypool @CIN
- Tee Higgins vs. PIT
- Darnell Mooney @DET
- Hunter Renfrow @DAL
- Odell Beckham @GB
- DeVonta Smith @NYG
- Mike Williams @DEN
- Brandon Aiyuk vs. MIN
- Jakobi Meyers vs. TEN
- Kadarius Toney vs. PHI
- Jarvis Landry @BAL
- Jamison Crowder @HOU
- Cole Beasley @NO
- Michael Gallup vs. LV
- Rashod Bateman vs. CLE
- Corey Davis @HOU
- Marvin Jones vs. ATL
- Laviska Shenault vs. ATL
- Courtland Sutton vs. LAC
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. LAR
- Tyler Boyd vs. PIT
- Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. CHI
- Emmanuel Sanders @NO
- Kenny Golladay vs. PHI
- Van Jefferson @GB
- Russell Gage @JAX
| | Tight ends | | There's an important distinction to be made when talking about the current state of the tight end position, and it's one I fear I may not have been drawing clearly enough lately. There are more viable Fantasy tight ends right now than we're used to seeing, by which I mean, there are quite a few players with solid roles in their offense. | | By my count, there are 16 tight ends with a target share of at least 15% right now, and that doesn't include the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Dawson Knox, Pat Freiermuth, or Hunter Henry. It also doesn't include Logan Thomas, who could make his return from the IR this week as he is set to return to practice. 15% isn't a massive number, but historically, it puts you in the starting tight end discussion. | | The problem is … well, as you can see from week to week, there still aren't that many players you can actually trust. Everyone's threshold for trust is different, but it's fair to ask whether Kyle Pitts has done enough to meet it lately. The same is true for T.J. Hockenson, Mike Gesicki, and Dalton Schultz. I mean, I feel like I can trust those guys, and I do think they represent the sort of second tier at tight end, the guys I wouldn't be able to bring myself to sit. | | Of course, I would have said the same of Dan Arnold last week, and he didn't even have a target. There's potential here, but weekly studs remain rare at tight end than anywhere else. | - Darren Waller @DAL
- Mark Andrews vs. CLE
- George Kittle vs. MIN
- Rob Gronkowski @IND
- T.J. Hockenson vs. CHI
- Kyle Pitts @JAX
- Dalton Schultz vs. LV
- Mike Gesicki vs. CAR
- Dallas Goedert @NYG
- Dan Arnold vs. ATL
- Tyler Higbee @GB
- Noah Fant vs. LAC
- Dawson Knox @NO
- Tyler Conklin @SF
- Pat Freiermuth @CIN
- Jared Cook @DEN
- Cole Kmet @DET
- Hunter Henry vs. TEN
- Evan Engram vs. PHI
- Austin Hooper @BAL
- O.J. Howard @IND
- Juwan Johnson vs. BUF
- David Njoku @BAL
- Foster Moreau @DAL
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