| | | | Monday, June 24, 2024 | | We've got a ton of news and performances to cover from this weekend, and you need to set your lineups for Week 14. We've got everything you need to make the best decisions possible in today's newsletter, so I won't waste any time with an extended intro here. Let's get right to it: | | | | Week 14 Preview | | | | There are a few schedule notes you need to know about for Week 14, with the Mets playing just five games at home, while the Rockies have five as well, all on the road. You can probably just bench all of your Rockies, honestly. The Astros, meanwhile, have five games, two at home against the Rockies and then three against the Mets in New York. | | Week 14 waiver targets | | Here are the top players to consider adding ahead of Week 14 at each position: | | C: Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics* (53%) 1B: Andrew Vaughn, White Sox (60%) 2B: Zack Gelof, Athletics (54%)3B: Jose Miranda, Twins (23%)SS: Masyn Winn, Cardinals (60%) OF: Eloy Jimenez, White Sox* (64%), Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (56%), Alec Burleson, Cardinals (53%) SP: Shane Baz, Rays (57%), Spencer Turnbull, Phillies (25%), Davidjohn Herz, Nationals (39%)RP: Aroldis Chapman, Pirates (12%), Chad Green, Blue Jays (19%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | | | Week 14 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 14: | 1. Royals MIA3, CLE4
2. Orioles CLE3, TEX4
3. Angels OAK3, DET4
4. Cubs @SF4, @MIL3
5. Athletics @LAA3, @ARI3 | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 14: | 1. Mets NYY2, HOU3
2. Marlins @KC3, @PHI4
3. Rockies @HOU2, @CHW3
4. Pirates @CIN3, @ATL3
5. Mariners @TB3, MIN3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 14: | | David Hamilton, SS, Red Sox (63%) TOR3, SD3Zack Gelof, 2B, Athletics (51%) @LAA3, @ARI3Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox (59%) LAD3, ATL1, COL3 Jarred Kelenic, OF, Braves (48%) @STL3, @CHW1, PIT3 J.J. Bleday, OF, Athletics (49%) @LAA3, @ARI3 | | Week 14 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." | | Top sleeper pitches for Week 14: | | Matt Waldron, Padres vs. WAS, at BOS Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks vs. MIN, vs. OAK Tyler Anderson, Angels vs. OAK, vs. DET Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves at STL, vs. PITReese Olson, Tigers at LAA | | | Weekend Standouts
| | Good pitching | | Paul Skenes, Pirates vs. TB: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – I moved Skenes up to SP7 in my latest rankings update, and I really don't feel too worried about it. Look, we're talking about less than a month and a half sample size here, but he's been absolutely everything we hoped for so far, striking out at least seven in seven of eight starts with a 2.14 ERA and the peripherals to back it up – including a massive 33.7% strikeout rate and just eight walks in as many starts. He was the top pitching prospect in baseball before adding a 94-mph splitter that accounted for five of his 12 whiffs Sunday. It's entirely possible we're taking him as the No. 1 pitcher in Fantasy next spring. | | Pablo Lopez, Twins @OAK: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 14 K – I understand how frustrating it is to go through a two-and-a-half-month stretch where your ace is pitching like one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Believe me, I have Lopez on a lot of my teams. It's been tough. But the thing you have to keep in mind is, despite what it feels like in the moment, two and a half months really isn't a very long time in baseball, especially when you're trying to determine if a player's skill level has changed – and especially if the primary way you are determining that is through ERA. ERA has very little predictive value even over the course of a full season, and Lopez's underlying skill set looks like it has changed a lot less than his ERA would suggest. I can't guarantee it'll be smooth sailing from here on out, but I hope this helps calm the most worried among you down at least a little bit. I still believe Lopez is an ace. | | Sonny Gray , Cardinals vs. SF: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Consistency has rarely been a hallmark of Gray's career, but we're going on nearly 400 innings of an ERA right around 3.00 since the start of 2022 for Gray, so maybe it's time to just buy in. I know, I know; you're wincing at the very thought of me even typing something like that, worried that acknowledging it will jinx Gray. The thing is, he's quietly taken another step forward this season, posting a 31.4% strikeout rate before Sunday, with some of the best peripherals of his career. He hasn't changed much about his approach, so there might be some regression here moving forward, but I certainly don't see much reason to think of Gray as a sell-high candidate or anything. | | Jared Jones , Pirates vs. TB: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – I'd be lying if I said I didn't need to see a start like this from Jones, given his post-April swoon. You'd still like to see better control from Jones, who remains mostly a two-pitch pitcher – he threw his curveball and changeup just 13 times total in this one out of 94 pitches. Jones gives up more hard contact than you'd like, and if the command doesn't improve, he'll need to rack up more strikeouts like this to be a difference-maker. The good news is, he definitely has the stuff for it if he can pitch like this consistently. That being said, I don't expect an ace outcome from him anymore. At least not until his arsenal or his approach improves. | | Bailey Ober , Twins @OAK: 9 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – We're not far removed from Ober being one of the pitchers everyone was panicking most about, so what changed? Honestly, I'm not sure there's a ton you can point to. Ober's pitch mix has been remarkably consistent throughout the season – he's throwing his slider a bit more so far in June, but otherwise, pretty much everything is within a few percentage points of where it was in May when he was awful. And, while his fastball is generating somewhat better results, there are still some concerns – in June, he's allowed a 93 mph average exit velocity and .370 expected wOBA with it, by far the worst marks of his arsenal. That's been the issue all season, and despite the improved results, it's not like the fastball looks notably better. I think we're probably just seeing natural variance more than anything else – on the bad end in May, and then more on the good since in June. Ober isn't an ace, but he's not someone you should be dropping, either; that 3.60 ERA for June looks right to me. | | Jake Irvin, Nationals @COL: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Baseball's a funny sport. Irvin has established himself as a surprisingly solid pitcher this season thanks to impeccable control, despite middling at best strikeout numbers, so, of course, he went into Coors Field and did that. I don't want to say there's nothing to take away from this performance, because I do think Irvin has more strikeout upside than we've generally seen so far this season. But Coors Field is also a total outlier in terms of environment, which makes it tough to extrapolate anything from performances there. If he could routinely rack up whiff rates north of 40% with his curveball like he did Sunday, that would be huge for his upside, but I'm just not sure we can say we learned anything from this. | | Luis Severino , Mets @CHC: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – While you may remember a time when starts like this were fairly typical for Severino, it's pretty out of character for him this season. And, unfortunately, I don't think there's much reason to think it's the new norm or anything. He racked up 10 of his 14 swinging strikes – a relatively paltry number for a double-digit strikeout effort – with his fastballs, neither of which has been a particularly good swing-and-miss pitch for him this season, and there wasn't much in the velocity or movement profiles for either to suggest there is much reason to buy in. Severino deserves credit for how well he's pitched after reinventing himself as more of a pitch-to-contact guy, but I don't think there's much reason to think this performance changes his outlook. | | Jordan Montgomery , Diamondbacks @PHI: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Given the opponent, this is pretty clearly Montgomery's best performance of the season, and he now has a 2.69 ERA over the past three starts, with 15 strikeouts in 16.2 innings of work. That's a tiny sample size, so let's not go planning a parade for Montgomery, or anything. But we've been looking for reasons to keep the faith in Montgomery, and he's giving us some. The most promising thing here is that his curveball movement profile looked a lot more like last year, with a less loopy break, and he generated three swinging strikes on eight swings. Baby steps. | | Andrew Abbott, Reds vs. BOS: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – When Abbott got the call from the minors last year, he was racking up massive strikeout numbers that mostly haven't been there in the majors (especially this season). I'm not sure there's much reason to think this start represents the beginning of a new, more strikeout-heavy Abbott, unfortunately. He generated 14 of his 19 swinging strikes with his four-seam fastball, but that's a pitch that still ranks just 61st out of 78 qualifiers in whiff rate among four-seamers even after this start. It's not a bad pitch, it just isn't a great one for whiffs, and that generally leaves him reliant on good control and great results on balls in play for success, and that's just not an approach I want to bet on in Cincinnati. Sell high if anyone is buying. | | Jameson Taillon, Cubs vs. NYM: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – I hate to be like, "Yeah, I didn't believe in any of the best pitching performances of the weekend!" But … yeah, I certainly don't believe in this one. Taillon hasn't had a strikeout rate over 22% since 2021, and even then, he was at just 23.2%, so we have pretty good reason right there to doubt this performance. It was mostly the same approach as always – a few more cutters than normal, at the expense of some changeups and curveballs – but the kitchen-sink approach just worked in this one. Taillon has a pretty ERA and much less believable peripherals, though I do think he remains a decent streamer for a matchup against the Giants next. | | Drew Thorpe, White Sox @DET: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K – Ah, here I go again. Thorpe was pretty good in this one, leaning on the changeup for 10 of his 11 whiffs and a ton of weak contact, which helped the fastball avoid barrels. But the change up remains the only consistent swing-and-miss pitch here, and it's not like he's showcased pinpoint control so far – through three MLB starts, he has 11 walks to just nine strikeouts. I think Thorpe is pretty droppable at this point, even with the good results here. | | Bad Pitching | | Dylan Cease , Padres vs. MIL: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – Cease has just two quality starts in his past eight starts, but what's weird is how atypical his struggles are. Typically when Cease gets in trouble, it's because his control abandons him, but he has just 12 walks in those eight starts, so that isn't the issue here; he's also struck out 56 in 42 innings, so that doesn't explain it. The problem mostly comes down to quality of contact, specifically homers, which he has allowed nine of in that stretch. That was an issue last season as well, but given his still-strong strikeout skills, I'm not really panicking. | | Carlos Rodon, Yankees vs. ATL: 3.2 IP, 11 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – There have been some pretty high points for Rodon this season, but I think what we're seeing is that the floor isn't quite as high as it used to be, leading to more performances like this. I think he's still quite a good pitcher, but the lost effectiveness on his fastball seems to be leaving him with a slimmer margin for error. Rodon's arsenal is deeper than it was in his past, but he hasn't been able to rediscover the effectiveness of his simpler approach, and I'm not sure he will. | | Shota Imanaga, Cubs vs. NYM: 3 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Imanaga was never going to sustain an ERA below 2.00, so I can't say I'm worried about this one. I've compared him to Joe Ryan plenty of times, and we've seen similar stretches of dominance followed by deep struggles for Ryan as well. In Imanaga's case, one thing I think is worth mentioning is that, while his fastball tends to play up, the fact that he is a lefty could make him more susceptible to these kinds of stretches if opponents stack their lineup with righties and his splitter isn't quite as sharp as usual. It's a great pitch, but he doesn't really have anything else to attack righties with if it isn't working on a particular day. He might just be a very good pitcher who is nonetheless more high-variance than most. | | Nick Pivetta , Red Sox @CIN: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – It was basically all fastball and curveball from Pivetta in this one, as he threw just 13 sweepers and cutters and no sliders. Those have been his best swing-and-miss pitches going back to last season, and it's hard to see how Pivetta gets back to being the standout he was without them. The Red Sox have done an excellent job getting the most out of their pitchers, but Pivetta now has a 4.82 ERA since coming back from the IL in early May, with just three quality starts in nine attempts, and it's not like he has a lengthy track record of success to fall back on. Yeah, I'm worried. | | Bryce Miller , Mariners @MIA: 4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – The ride started out a little differently, but ultimately we're back where we were with Miller last year – he remains way too reliant on his four-seamer, and that's just an awfully tough way to succeed in the majors. When the four-seamer is spotted up in the zone well, he's going to be dominant; when it's not perfect, he just doesn't have much else to fall back on, despite the work he has put in to develop pitches like his splitter and sinker. The buy-low window has probably shut with Miller's ERA fast approaching 4.00, and he's a fine pitcher to have around if you can't sell. But the hopes that he was making a leap early on look dashed. | | Ryan Pepiot, Rays @PIT: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – I'm starting to worry Pepiot may not have a spot in the Rays rotation for long if he keeps pitching like this. He has a 5.76 ERA since coming back from the IL, with plenty of strikeouts, generally, but also tons of homers and more walks than you'd like. His fastball remains an excellent swing-and-miss pitch, but it has dropped from a 41% whiff rate in April to a 29.8% mark in June, and that might be the difference between Pepiot being a viable starter and an also-ran for Fantasy. | | Jordan Hicks, Giants @STL: 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 1 K – Hicks still has a 3.24 ERA, but it's come with a 1.28 WHIP, less than a strikeout per inning, and no starts of at least six innings since April. Even in points leagues, Hicks no longer looks like a must-roster player, which is disappointing given the strong start he got off to in his return to the rotation. | | Jonathan Cannon, White Sox @DET: 1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 1 K – I kept trying to find reasons to believe Cannon's two starts before this where he gave up just one run over 15.2 innings might have been for real, but I found little in his minor-league track record or skill set to justify it. And lo and behold. I'm not saying Cannon can't be a Fantasy-relevant pitcher moving forward against the right matchups, but a difference-maker? Yeah, I don't see that. | | Hitters | | Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros – Bregman has gotten better as the season has gone on, and he's really turned it on in June. He went 6 for 13 in the series against the Orioles this weekend and is now hitting .364/.424/.532 for the month. His overall numbers still are nothing to write home about, and he has the worst quality of contact metrics of his career, but Bregman is at least giving us reasons to be optimistic. | | Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers – He seems to be figuring it out. Langford had five hits, including a grand slam, this weekend, and has hit .296 with 20 RBI and six steals in 22 games since coming off the IL. We'd like to see more than two homers in that stretch, and his quality of contact leaves plenty to be desired, but given how poorly Langford played to start his career, I'll take any reason to be optimistic. | | Jackson Merrill, OF, Padres – The lows were never quite as low for Merrill as they were for Langford, and his highs have been quite a bit higher, so I think it might be time to start wondering whether we'd just rather have the younger Padre at this point. He homered again Saturday, giving him seven over his past 10 games, and he's now hitting .289 with 10 homers, 69 combined runs and RBI and nine steals in 79 games. That's a solid Fantasy player in all formats, and this power binge makes it easier to buy into the idea that there is difference-making upside here. | | Colt Keith, 2B, Tigers – Keith is still a lot more hit-or-miss than the other two rookies just mentioned, but at least we're getting some hits here. Over the past 10 games, he's hitting .385/.415/.615 with two homers; he had just two homers in the first 58 games. Keith is making plenty of contact, and while his underlying numbers don't suggest he's a star by any means, he's probably deserved better production than he has gotten so far. He's a decent buy-low. | | Joey Loperfido, OF, Astros – With Kyle Tucker still struggling with that leg injury, Loperfido got the call again this weekend and opened up with a three-hit performance Friday. He went 4 for 10 overall with a couple of doubles and RBI, though he also struck out four times, which remains an issue. Loperfido is a relatively low priority pickup for me as of right now, but if he can start to tap into his power a bit more consistently before Tucker makes his way back, there's still plenty of upside here. | | News and notes | | Max Scherzer returned from the IL Sunday and pitched well against the Royals, limiting them to just one hit over five shutout innings, with four strikeouts. Scherzer wasn't dominant, but it was a solid debut after offseason back surgery and then a thumb issue during his rehab, but he had some ominous-sounding quotes after the game. Scherzer admitted he had some forearm fatigue during the start that contributed to his removal after just 57 pitches. "Everything from a baseball standpoint was telling me to go back out there," he said after the game. "I'm pitching well, I'm throwing the ball well. I just don't know how I'm going to recover from this. The thumb issue is still there. I do feel fatigue in my forearm... I have to make the next start in five days." Given that, I'm okay keeping Scherzer on my bench for this week, because I could see the Rangers continuing to play cautiously with him for a little while longer. | | Edwin Diaz was ejected from the game after failing a sticky substance check as he entered the game. He'll get hit with a 10-game suspension, and I don't believe any appeals for sticky substance suspensions have been successful, so I'm sitting him for this week. Reed Garrett should be the first in line for any saves while Diaz is out. | | Fernando Tatis left Friday after getting hit by a pitch on his left triceps. He was out both Saturday and Sunday, making him a risky start this week. | | Kyle Tucker ran on a treadmill Friday but still has not resumed on-field work. He's been out since June 4 with that right shin contusion. | | Jesus Luzardo was placed on the IL Saturday due to a lumbar stress reaction in his back. Then on Sunday, he was moved to the 60-day IL, which means he'll be out until at least August 18. If you don't have an IL spot to work with, you can certainly consider dropping Luzardo. | | On top of that the Marlins placed Braxton Garrett on the 15-day IL with a left forearm flexor strain. We should see Max Meyer back at some point soon, but the Marlins have been in no rush to get him back up. | | David Bednar was placed on the 15-day IL with a strained left oblique, retroactive to Thursday. Aroldis Chapman picked up his second save on Saturday and is worth adding despite his elevated walk rate. | | Jordan Romano experienced right elbow soreness after long tossing from 120 feet Friday and has been shut down from throwing. Yimi Garcia is also on the IL, which means Chad Green is the Blue Jays' top option for saves right now, though Garcia did start throwing, so he may not be out too much longer. | | Clayton Kershaw reported shoulder soreness during Saturday's bullpen and could have his next rehab outing pushed back. He's a viable stash, but my expectations are not incredibly high coming back from shoulder surgery at his age. | | Nolan Arenado was removed Saturday with left forearm soreness. He received an injection to alleviate the pain. The Cardinals will wait to see how he responds before determining his availability moving forward. | | Nick Lodolo was limited Sunday against the Red Sox Sunday as a result of a blister on his left index finger. He's got a nice matchup against the Cardinals this week if he's clear, but I would prefer to sit Lodolo unless we get confirmation that he is starting before lineups lock. | | Blake Snell made his first rehab start at Triple-A on Sunday but admitted that he isn't close to where he needs to be and will likely need at least a couple more rehab starts as he works his way back from his groin injury. | | Giancarlo Stanton was placed on the IL due to a left hamstring strain. Stanton is expected to miss up to four weeks, and that's especially poor timing after Jasson Dominguez suffered an oblique injury that will likely keep him out longer than Stanton. | | We had a small trade as the Yankees acquired J.D. Davis and cash considerations for Jordan Groshans. Davis could play one of the corner infield spots and perhaps some DH for the Yankees, but he's only AL-only relevant right now. | | Xander Bogaerts has been running the bases, taking light grounders, and doing one-handed drills in the batting cage. He broke his left shoulder back on May 20 and isn't expected back until late July at the earliest. | | Josh Jung was shut down this weekend due to residual soreness in his wrist. He'll take batting practice against live pitching Tuesday before the team determines whether he can come back, so keep him in that IL spot for this week. | | Yu Darvish is scheduled to return Tuesday against the Nationals, his first start since May 29. I'd lean toward sitting Darvish for his first start back. | | Gabriel Moreno was placed on the IL with a sprained left thumb. Tucker Barnhart will take over as the primary catcher with Jose Herrera as the backup. | | David Fry was removed Sunday due to right elbow inflammation. He has cooled off considerably and feels like an easy sit. | | Brandon Lowe suffered a broken pinky toe on a hit by pitch Saturday and then was out of the lineup Sunday. He is not expected to go on the IL, but it could certainly impact his swing, so keep an eye on how he looks in his first few games back. | | Starling Marte was removed Saturday with right knee soreness, an issue that's lingered throughout June. He'll receive an MRI on Monday. I might plan to be without Marte for a few games, maybe longer. | | Robbie Ray moved his rehab to Triple-A on Sunday but pitched just 2.1 innings, so he's probably still a ways away. I'd probably prioritize stashing him ahead of Kershaw and Jacob deGrom given his relative proximity, but my expectations aren't high at this point. | | Max Muncy was transferred to the 60-day IL with that right oblique strain, which means he can't return until just after the All-Star break. | | Eloy Jimenez returned Sunday after missing a month with a left hamstring strain and then reported hamstring soreness after this game. | | There's no reason to pick up Blue Jays shortstop Orelvis Martinez because he's been suspended 80 games for PED use. | | Spencer Turnbull is moving back to the Phillies' rotation after Taijuan Walker was placed on the IL. | | The Reds haven't yet committed to activating Noelvi Marte when he's first eligible to return on June 27. He has struggled in the minors, striking out 14 times while going just 7 for 49 in his first 11 games. | | Very scary scene Saturday as Amed Rosario was hit in the face with a 99 MPH fastball from Jared Jones. Rosario suffered facial lacerations but it sounds like he's avoided serious injury. | | Robert Gasser is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery on Monday. | | Other players who went on the IL this weekend | | Luis Campusano with a left thumb injury, expected to miss just the minimum 10 days | | Charlie Blackmon with a right hamstring strain, retroactive to June 19 | | Astros pitching prospect Jake Bloss got called up Friday then went on the IL Saturday with right shoulder inflammation | | Patrick Sandoval with left elbow strain | | Abraham Toro with a strained right hamstring | | Ivan Herrera with lower-back tightness | | Mike Yastrzemski with a left oblique strain, Luis Matos was recalled | | Keaton Winn with right elbow inflammation | | Adael Amador with a right oblique strain | | | | | | | | The First Cut | | PGA Tour | The First Cut takes you inside the ropes of the golf world, on the PGA Tour and beyond. 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