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| Tuesday, January 2, 2024 |
Last week, I said that Kyren Williams might go down as both one of the best waiver-wire pickups in Fantasy Football in the last decade and also possibly not even the best on his own team. After his three-touchdown performance in the Fantasy championships in Week 17, he might have leap-frogged fellow Ram Puka Nacua and earned his spot as the most impactful waiver-wire add we've seen in a long time. Maybe ever. |
Williams dropped 30.1 PPR points on the Giants Sunday, and he enters Week 18 as one of just two running backs averaging 20-plus PPR points; add in wide receivers, and only two other non-QBs have been better than him on a per-game basis this season. With the Rams left with little to play for in Week 18 after locking up a playoff spot, it's an open question whether Williams will do much to add to his totals this week, but he's already cemented his place as one of the most valuable players in Fantasy I can remember, scoring at least 14 PPR points in 10 of his 12 games, including six straight after coming back from a high-ankle sprain in Week 12. |
How we handle Williams in 2024 is going to be one of the most fascinating questions Fantasy analysts and players have to figure out in the coming offseason, because he's got a pretty unique profile. Remember, Williams was a fifth-round pick who was mostly a non-factor as a rookie, despite plenty of need on the Rams part. He has dealt with multiple high-ankle sprains since entering the NFL and wasn't viewed as a great prospect, so this could very easily go the way of Dameon Pierce -- remember when it was controversial to say we should fade him? |
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| We'll start to tackle that question tomorrow, when we unveil our way-to-early first look at the QB and RB rankings for 2024, but I get the feeling Williams is going to be one of the more controversial players in any ranking for both 2024 and especially Dynasty. I genuinely have no idea what to do with Williams right now -- but that's for tomorrow's newsletter. |
Today, we're taking a quick look at what to expect from Week 18 for those of you still playing for something this week. One thing you should know, of course, is that ... you shouldn't be playing Fantasy Football in Week 18! 17 NFL teams effectively have nothing to play for in Week 18, and that will likely lead to all kinds of weird outcomes around the NFL. |
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| As for me? I'm turning my attention to 2024 after this. |
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| Week 18 Outlook |
| So, here's the tricky thing: Some teams with little to play for will still treat Week 18 like a normal week. Some will put their starters out there to begin the game, but will turn things over to backups as the game goes on; some will only sit certain players for certain stretches. And some teams will sit everyone relevant. Which teams will do which? |
Well, that's pretty much impossible to say until and unless we get some kind of official word from the teams themselves. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni told reporters Monday he might consider sitting some key players, though that decision might not come until halftime -- the Eagles need to win and have the Cowboys lose to the Commanders to have a chance to win the NFC East, so if Dallas is up big early, that might trigger the decision. |
We can make some educated guess on some of these, of course, and if you look at the Vegas lines, it seems we already have. The Ravens are 3.5-point underdogs at home against the Steelers Saturday, a pretty good sign that the starters are expected to sit now that they've locked up a bye and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs; similarly, the 49ers are only favored by 3.5 at home against the Rams with their No. 1 seed locked up, and they've already announced Christian McCaffrey won't play due to a mild calf strain. The Chiefs are 1.5 underdogs to the Chargers, under the assumption that Andy Reid will do what he has done in the past and rest his starters. |
Among playoff teams, the Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs are three of the five teams who effectively have nothing to play for in Week 18, along with the Rams and Browns. The Rams seeding in the NFC bracket could be impacted by the outcome of their game, but they are overwhelmingly likely to be the sixth seed and can't move any higher than that, so Sean McVay may decide he doesn't have much to play for either. |
| Here's how every team's Week 18 outlook looks, with the teams in the first two categories and the last one the most likely to sit their starters this weekend: |
- Teams that have nothing to play for in Week 18 because they locked up the No. 1 seed in their conferences: Ravens, 49ers
- Teams that have nothing to play for because they are effectively locked into a playoff spot: Browns, Rams, Chiefs
- Teams that absolutely have to win in Week 18: Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Steelers, Buccaneers, Packers, Seahawks, Saints, Vikings, Falcons
- Teams that really want to win in Week 18: Dolphins, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles
- Teams that have nothing to play for because they are eliminated from the playoffs: Bengals, Broncos, Raiders, Jets, Chargers, Titans, Patriots, Bears, Giants, Commanders, Cardinals, Panthers
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Now, all of those teams in the bottom category may not rest any starters even though they have nothing to play for, because, well ... they don't have playoffs to worry about getting healthy for. We've already seen the Broncos and Commanders turn to backup quarterbacks (at least before injuries), but the Bears still actually have a lot at stake in Week 18, as they have a very tough decision to make about Justin Fields' future. They're likely to keep their starters out there the entire game to get one more look at him, at least. |
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| Week 18 Rankings |
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| This means those waiver targets may be obsolete by then, and these rankings may be too. More than any other week, competing in Week 18 requires you to stay as up-to-date as possible as late as possible into the week on news to know who will be available. It's why we don't recommend playing into Week 18! |
| Here are my rankings as of now: |
| QB Rankings |
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| RB Rankings |
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| WR Rankings |
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| TE Rankings |
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