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Monday, July 29, 2024 |
Alright, things are going to be a bit different this week. The trade deadline looms Tuesday at 6 pm, and in many ways, the Fantasy Baseball world is kind of in a holding pattern. We don't necessarily expect any more superstars to be moved, but we can't exactly count it out until that proverbial final bell tolls; until then, any player's value could change for the rest of the season. We'll have a recap of everything you need to know from the deadline Wednesday morning right here, but we've already had plenty of moves you need to know about go down, so today's newsletter is going to dive into all that, with my thoughts on all the Fantasy relevant names on the move. |
But first, our typical Week 19 preview, though that also carries additional uncertainty this week, thanks to the deadline. Let's get to it: |
Week 19 Preview |
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The schedule is weird in Week 19, with the Dodgers, Athletics, Padres, Giants, and Rays all scheduled to play just five games this week. But the thing you have to keep in mind is that a bunch of players are going to have very different schedules than the ones they currently face. Obviously, most players won't get traded, but that uncertainty is going to hover over everything until Tuesday's deadline. |
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Here are the top players to consider adding ahead of Week 18 at each position: |
C: Austin Wells, Yankees (22%) 1B: Juan Yepez, Nationals (38%) 2B: Xavier Edwards, Marlins (32%) 3B: Eugenio Suarez, Diamondbacks (39%) SS: Tyler Fitzgerald, Giants (59%) OF: T.J. Friedl, Reds (59%), Victor Robles, Mariners (15%), Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (52%), Austin Hays, Phillies (9%) SP: Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves (66%), Jeffrey Springs, Rays (64%), Alex Cobb, Giants (11%), Yariel Rodriguez, Blue Jays (29%) RP: Chad Green, Blue Jays (29%), Ben Joyce, Angels (15%) |
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Best hitter matchups for Week 19: |
1. Orioles TOR4, @CLE4 2. Braves @MIL3, MIA4 3. Cubs @CIN3, STL4 4. Angels COL3, NYM3 5. Royals @CHW3, @DET4 |
Worst hitter matchups for Week 19: |
1. Athletics @SF2, LAD3 2. Phillies NYY3, @SEA3 3. Red Sox SEA3, @TEX3 4. Marlins @TB2, @ATL4 |
5. Dodgers @SD2, @OAK35. Tigers @CLE4, MIN3 |
Top sleeper hitters for Week 19: |
1. Zachary Neto, SS, Angels (65%) COL3, NYM3 2. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles (53%) TOR4, @CLE4 3. Carlos Santana, 1B, Twins (42%) @NYM3, CHW3 4. Jesse Winker, OF, Mets (78%) @ARI3, MIL3 5. Luis Garcia, 2B, Nationals (58%) @ARI3, MIL3 |
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You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." |
Top sleeper pitches for Week 19: |
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Trade Deadline Updates |
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Jazz Chisholm to the Yankees |
Absent some move that clears the runway for a big-time prospect to play, I'm guessing this will end up being the most impactful trade of the deadline for both Fantasy and real life. Chisholm is, in theory, a phenomenal fit for Yankee Stadium if he can keep the strikeouts in check and the Yankees can figure out a workable plan for him defensively; he started at center field Sunday, but the plan is apparently for him to play some second and even third base. In the long run, he should end up hitting in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in a terrific park for his swing. The upside here is huge. |
It's also worth noting that Agustin Ramirez is the big piece going back to Miami, and he's certainly a name to know. Probably more for 2025, as he has struggled since getting to Triple-A. But the 22-year-old is hitting .269/.358/.505 with 20 homers in 87 games this season, and you have to think the Marlins are going to at least give him a chance to stick at catcher. Along with Deyvison De Los Santos , acquired in the A.J. Puk trade, Ramirez should be one of the Marlins' most intriguing sleepers next spring. |
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This is a fascinating one from both sides. You can certainly see why the Cubs would want some long-term stability at third base, with Morel's defense still looking worst-in-the-league while his bat has badly regressed; on the Rays' side, you can definitely understand the desire to take a shot on a player with Morel's considerable physical gifts. |
But Wrigley Field is an awful fit for Paredes' dead-pull swing – if he played all his games at Wrigley, he would have 13 fewer homers over the past three seasons than his actual total of 67 – while Morel is still more a collection of interesting tools than a fully realized baseball player. I think it's reasonable to assume the Rays will be able to optimize Morel, while Paredes seems like a good bet to take a step back. But there's a decent chance this one blows up in both sides' faces. |
The other thing to keep in mind here, of course: What if it opens a path to Junior Caminero coming back? Did the Rays see an opportunity to upgrade their DH spot, with Caminero viewed as the actual Paredes replacement? That would make sense, though the way they tend to slow-play their prospects, I am hesitant to try to project an impending call-up. |
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Randy Arozarena to the Mariners |
This was actually the first domino in the Rays soft reset, and it's a bet on Arozarena continuing his hot run after a miserable first two months. On the whole, it's a bet I'm pretty comfortable with, though the unknowable factor here is how Arozarena will take to T-Mobile Park in Seattle; several players have complained about it being a tough place to hit in the past. If Arozarena doesn't have that issue, then he should continue to be a must-start Fantasy option and a boon to a Mariners lineup that has been reeling all season. |
Zach Eflin to the Orioles |
With Jeffrey Springs back this week, the Rays decided Eflin was expendable in the midst of a disappointing season. It's reasonable enough, but I'll admit, I'm pretty excited about the move here and what it means for Eflin. He's suddenly got one of the best offenses in the league backing him up in one of the best home parks in baseball. Eflin's strikeout rate has collapsed after a career year in 2023, but he remains a standout in command and quality of contact allowed, and that should play up even more in Camden Yards. I think you'll be happy to have Eflin in your lineup the rest of the way, even if the strikeouts don't return. |
Austin Hays to the Phillies |
This is a pretty small deal, all things considered, but it could matter for Fantasy. Hays has hit better on the road than at home since the Orioles moved their fences back in left field, and now he gets to play every day in an elite offense, in one of the best home parks in baseball. Don't be surprised if Hays is a very good Fantasy outfielder the rest of the way. |
Jesse Winker to the Mets |
Winker has bounced back as a hitter, but the biggest draw this season has been his surprise contributions as a base stealer, and I just don't have a lot of faith that's going to continue in New York. He should remain a very good source of on-base percentage and will produce against righties, but I think he's probably just a fringe outfielder for Fantasy if the steals don't follow him up to New York. |
Closer trades! |
Carlos Estevez to the Phillies: I'm assuming he'll take over as the primary closer, with Jeff Hoffman in more of a fireman role, but I wouldn't drop either until we see how this shakes out. Luis Garcia is going to get save opportunities for the Angels unless and until he is traded, in which case, Ben Joyce is a safe bet to get some tries. He's not a sure thing, but there's plenty of upside with that 104 mph fastball. |
Yimi Garcia to the Mariners: Garcia never really even got the chance to emerge as the Blue Jays closer after coming back from his elbow injury. He'll help set Andres Munoz up, while Chad Green's path to saves for the rest of the season seems clear – unless he gets dealt too, in which case there would be no clear favorite for saves in that bullpen. |
Weekend Standouts |
Cole Ragans, Royals vs. CHC: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I'm not hitting the panic button or anything, but I'm a little worried about Ragans, who has struggled in July amidst a dip in velocity. He averaged 96.3 mph with his four-seamer back in April and maintained it up to 95.3 mph in June, but he's down to 94.4 mph so far in July, and it's certainly affected the effectiveness of the pitch. He's still managed to strike out 27 in 25.2 innings with a 3.51 ERA, so again, not panicking here. Just something I noticed that I hope he can reverse moving forward. |
Blake Snell , Giants vs. COL: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 15 K – No matter how good or bad things get for Snell, you can always rest assured that, in a few months' time, he'll turn it entirely around. For as much of a disaster as the early season was for him, he's up to a 30% strikeout rate and a 3.21 xERA – in fact, Snell's various ERA estimator stats are better than last year's pretty much across the board. He's throwing his curveball a bit more in July, but I have a hard time believing that explains why he's turned things around; in 2022, his turnaround was fueled by leaning on the slider. I think this is just who Snell is: A consistently inconsistent pitcher. |
Garrett Crochet, White Sox vs. SEA: 3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Crochet has now thrown just 13 innings in the month of July, and only one of those starts was, as far as we know, a planned brief outing. The reality here seems to be that the White Sox just have a really short leash with him. When things are going well, Crochet can probably get through six innings in a good start, but anytime the pitch count starts to rise, I think they're going to be aggressive about pulling him. There's still plenty of upside, but I think there's also significant risk for these kinds of outings pretty much every time he takes the field now. |
Kevin Gausman , Blue Jays vs. TEX: 9 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – Gausman's velocity was up 1.1 mph to 95.1 in this one, and what do you know, he looked like an ace again. The margin for error might just be super-slim here; when he's averaging 95-ish, Gausman might still be capable of pitching like an ace, as he did when he struck out 10 while averaging 95.3 mph on July 5. If he could sustain that for more than a start at a time, it might be worth getting excited about, but we just haven't seen that yet. So, for now, I still view Gausman as a high-upside pitcher, but not a predictable one. |
Shane Baz, Rays vs. CIN: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – The most promising thing here for Baz is that he finally seemed to have the feel for his curveball. He struggled with that pitch in his rehab assignment, but generated a season-high five whiffs with it, and had his best start of the season. The slider still isn't where it was pre-injury, but if he starts to figure that out, Baz could really take off down the stretch. I know he's been underwhelming, but I'm really trying hard not to drop him. |
Tyler Anderson, Angels vs. OAK: 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Suddenly, Anderson is getting a lot of whiffs with all of his pitches? Through the end of June, Anderson's whiff rate was pretty much all below average – the changeup was the lone exception – but in July he looked like a whiff machine. His four-seamer has a 25% whiff rate, the cutter is up to 28.9%, and his changeup is sitting at 46.1%, an elite mark. His velocity isn't up, so I'm inclined to write this off, but he's at least given you reason to hang on to him when we thought his hot start was a total mirage. |
Kyle Harrison, Giants vs. COL: 6.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K – I lean toward this just being about the Rockies away from Coors Field, but it was nice to see Harrison go away from the four-seamer, throwing it just 54% of the time after being over 60% usage for most of the season. It's a decent fastball, but he's been throwing it entirely too much this season, so that's a good decision. I'm still not convinced Harrison is much more than a streamer, but for the first time all season, I can see a path to something more. |
Drew Thorpe, Mariners vs. SEA: 0.2 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – Thorpe's changeup is special, but everything else is pedestrian at best, and you see that in his awful 25-to-19 K-to-BB ratio. I don't want to write Thorpe off in the long run, but I just don't see much to get excited about right now. |
Max Meyer, Marlins @MIL: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Meyer might have a similar problem to Thorpe, where if he doesn't have his best slider, I'm not sure he's a major-league caliber pitcher. He didn't have the slider at all in his return to the majors Saturday, generating two whiffs, and he was predictably pretty awful. He purportedly went down to the minors to work on the rest of his arsenal, but that work didn't show up here. I'd rather take a chance on Jeffrey Springs or Spencer Schwellenbach on waivers, and I might even prefer Yariel Rodriguez and River Ryan, who have similar pitch/inning concerns as Meyer but at least pitch for better teams. |
News and notes |
In his very first start back from a shoulder and triceps injury, Senga was pitching well into the sixth inning before suffering a high-grade calf strain in the field. He's on the 60-day IL and is almost certainly done for the season. What a disaster this year has been, though I guess if you're looking for a silver lining for the future, at least this wasn't another arm injury. |
Devin Williams was activated from the 60-day IL Sunday. He threw four scoreless innings with six strikeouts on his rehab assignment and should be back in the Brewers closer role before long. Unfortunately for Trevor Megill, who has been dominant. |
Ranger Suarez was placed on the 15-day IL due to lower-back soreness. This back injury has lingered for about a month now, which is obviously a concern. He's worth stashing everywhere, and hopefully, this ends up being the last we hear of this issue. |
Mookie Betts continues to swing a bat and could soon be cleared to take batting practice. Assuming no setbacks, Betts could be back by mid-August. |
Freddie Freeman was placed on the family emergency list Saturday and will miss between 3 and 7 days. |
Mike Trout told reporters Friday that the MRI on his left knee didn't reveal anything concerning and he expects to start running again soon. Apparently, he had scar tissue break up in his left knee, which caused discomfort and a pause in his rehab, but hopefully, this ends up being a small speed bump, as Trout began his rehab assignment last week before the setback. |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is scheduled to throw a bullpen Friday. He's not eligible to return until August 15, but it sounds like Yamamoto will take longer than that. |
Triston Casas is expected to begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A. |
He is 77% rostered and could be out there in shallower leagues, and you'll be happy you added him when he's back. |
Jacob deGrom will throw two more bullpen sessions before facing hitters. After that, we'd probably get a rehab assignment. I'm thinking late August, or early September before we see him. |
Justin Verlander threw more than 50 pitches in his bullpen session Saturday and is likely still several weeks from returning. |
Jeffrey Springs was reinstated from the IL and will make his season debut Tuesday against the Marlins. Over 12 rehab outings, he had a 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 36 K over 32 IP. Yes, you should add him if he's available. |
Here's a name we haven't heard in a while: Joe Musgrove incorporated all of his breaking pitches in his most recent bullpen and could begin a minor-league rehab assignment this week. |
Brenton Doyle left Sunday's game with an apparent right finger injury. Hopefully, it's not enough to derail a guy who has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball lately. |
Bruce Bochy said Josh Jung is doing great after playing rehab games at Double-A on Friday and Saturday. Jung's attempting to return from a few setbacks on his wrist, and he did get hit by a few pitches without incident over the weekend. |
Zach Eflin will make his Orioles debut Monday against the Blue Jays, which should make him a two-start pitcher this week. |
Michael Harris said Friday that he is confident he will be able to return by August 14, which is when he is eligible to come off the 60-day IL. |
Giancarlo Stanton is on track to return Monday. He's been out since June with a left hamstring strain. I'm starting him in one 15-team league, at least. |
Reynaldo Lopez was removed Sunday as a precaution due to right forearm tightness. He's scheduled to undergo an MRI, which is worrisome. |
Jared Jones threw 30 pitches in a bullpen Saturday and used all four of his pitches. He'll throw another bullpen this week as he works his way back from a lat injury. |
Bryan Woo exited his start early on Saturday with discomfort in his right hamstring, the same hamstring he went on the IL for back in June. |
Hayden Birdsong was optioned back to Single-A Sunday after another strong outing Saturday. Perhaps he can return following a trade or if somebody has to go on the IL. Given what he's shown over the past two starts (20 strikeouts), I'm trying to stash him to see if he gets another chance soon. |
Dave Roberts said Sunday that Max Muncy's rehab progress from a strained right oblique has been stagnant. He's suffered a few setbacks along the way, and I think you can drop him if you need the roster spot. |
The Giants placed Thairo Estrada on the IL with a sprained left wrist. |
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40% rostered, could be dropped |
The Marlins placed Josh Bell on waivers Sunday to gauge interest on a potential trade. The good news is, Bell is getting hot, hitting two homers this weekend, giving him five in his past seven games. |
Heliot Ramos was out of the lineup Sunday due to a right thumb injury. |
The Guardians promoted pitching prospect Joey Cantillo to make his MLB debut Sunday. He struggled in his debut and doesn't need to be added immediately. |
Jon Gray was removed from Sunday's start without throwing a pitch after he suffered an injury during warmups. |
Jose Miranda left Sunday after getting hit in the head by a pitch. He cleared the concussion protocol Sunday, but those kinds of things sometimes take a day or two for symptoms to appear, so let's keep an eye on this one. |
Evan Carter was shut down from baseball activities Friday and will get a second opinion on his lower back soreness. |
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