| | | | Monday, March 31, 2025 | | You don't want to overreact. And you definitely don't want to underreact. There's a little grey area in there, and that's where we want to operate early in the Fantasy Baseball season. | | Got it? | | No? | | Okay, fine, I'll give some examples, using actual players who played this week and who are actually on your roster. Before we get to the heart of today's FBT Newsletter, let's take a look at three pitchers: One I'm already fine dropping, one I'm worried about but still want to keep around for a while, and one I wouldn't even think about dropping for at least a month: | | Walker Buehler, Red Sox @TEX: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – This is a tough lineup, but I still think the best thing I can say here is, "At least he didn't get bombed." We saw very little of Buehler this spring in front of the Statcast cameras, and we really don't have much positive to take from this one. He throws a deep arsenal but his command seems a grade down from when he was at his best – and his stuff might be multiple grades lower. Whatever he found in reserve in the postseason wasn't there this time out, and he looked too much like the version of himself that got rocked last regular season. If there's any pitcher with upside on the waiver wire – from Jeffrey Springs to Jack Leiter to Max Meyer – I'd be willing to drop Buehler already. I was willing to give him a turn or two in the rotation to see if he could turn the clocks back, but after seeing him look more or less exactly like he did last season, I don't see much reason to wait it out. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves @SD: 5 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – Well, the velocity was there, answering one question from the spring. Unfortunately, the results really weren't, as he generated just three swinging strikes on 94 pitches. He didn't command his secondaries well at all, throwing just 19% of his sliders and curveballs in the strike zone. The Padres tend to be a very disciplined lineup, so that might explain much of his inability to generate whiffs in this one – but I'll admit, that's me looking for reasons to not be as pessimistic as I want to be. I was out on Lopez in most leagues this spring, and he'll need to show me a lot in the next few starts or I will be talking about dropping him. Bailey Ober, Twins @STL: 2.2 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Okay, maybe we just don't start Bailey Ober in his first start of the season anymore. At least he got out of the second inning this time, something we couldn't say in his debut a year ago! I dunno, I don't want to overreact, but I've been a little iffy on Ober since the spring, and his velocity has remained since the spring. Because he's so tall, he gets excellent extension, allowing low-90s velocity to play up, but it's still not ideal for a modern MLB starter to be sitting around 90 mph more often than not. And the iffy stuff might just leave him prone to these kinds of starts, something we saw on multiple occasions last season, leading to an inflated ERA. You're not dropping him, and you're probably starting him against the Astros the next time around, even, but I don't feel great about Ober right now. | | Got it? At the risk of oversimplifying: I wouldn't consider dropping a top-100 pick until May no matter how bad they were and I'm certainly not ready to drop anyone from the 150 range right now, but I'm open to moving on from a late-round pick already if there are more interesting options around. | | | | What about someone like Rafael Devers, you might be asking? 12 strikeouts in 16 plate appearances after a delayed start to spring training due to shoulder issues is pretty concerning, isn't it? | | Good question and the answer is: Yes, of course it's concerning. We've been concerned for a while, ever since he showed up for Spring Training still dealing with the shoulder injuries that ended last season early for him. Devers' play was clearly impacted by those injuries, and though the team said there was no structural damage, the fact that a five-month offseason wasn't enough to get him past the injuries is obviously concerning! | | And his bat speed is still down in the early going. Devers was in the 60th percentile in bat speed in 2024, down from 69th percentile the previous season, likely as a result of the late-season collapse in his swing. So far he's in the 19th percentile. Yeah, that's concerning. | | But let me ask you a question: What are you gonna do about it? If you can trade him for a third-round caliber player like Manny Machado, I'd be fine with that, of course; you're not losing any draft capital in that deal, but you're getting a player with a similar ceiling and fewer questions. But you're probably not getting that in return for Devers right now, and I'm not selling him for a huge discount – getting someone like Eugenio Suarez for him just wouldn't make any sense, given Suarez's own performance concerns. | | You're probably stuck with Devers. That might work out poorly if his shoulders never get right. But if it turns out that he just needed a couple of weeks to find his swing and you get 5.5 months of normal Rafael Devers production, hanging on to him will go a long way toward helping you win your league. Short of getting a player with similar upside, I'm hanging on to Devers. | | It's not really a grey area, then. It's pretty clean and simple: I'm not even thinking about dropping anyone I drafted in the first 10 rounds until May at the earliest, and even longer for my true early-round picks. And I'd prefer not to even think about trading an early-round pick for any reason when they're off to a slow start. Baseball's a long season, and a bad weekend can happen to anyone. | | It should go without saying, but: Don't overreact. You're much better off underreacting at this point, even. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, I've got thoughts on every other notable performance from this weekend around MLB, but first, let's make sure you've got everything you need to set your lineups for Week 2: | | | | Week 2 Preview | | | | Before we get to everything you need to know from this weekend's action, let's get those lineups set, with some help from Scott White and I. | | Week 2 waiver targets | | Before we get to the top targets for each position, make sure you check out the article for some thoughts on closer situations that might have already changed, including the Phillies, Rangers, Rockies, and Reds. Here are the top targets for every other position: | | C: Hunter Goodman, Rockies (14%) 1B; Ben Rice, Yankees (40%) 2B: Gavin Lux, Reds (24%) 3B: Joseph Ortiz, Brewers (33%) SS: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (36%) OF: Victor Scott, Cardinals (50%), Tommy Pham, Pirates (29%), Alan Roden, Blue Jays (14%)SP: Jeffrey Springs, Athletics (65%), Jack Leiter, Rangers (53%), Max Meyer (47%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | | | Week 2 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 2 | 1. Reds TEX3, @MIL4
2. Athletics CHC3, @COL3
3. Diamondbacks @NYY3, @WAS3
4. Red Sox @BAL3, STL3
5. Cubs @ATH3, SD3 | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 2 | 1. Dodgers ATL3, @PHI3
2. Giants @HOU3, SEA3
3. Marlins NYM3, @ATL3
4. Orioles BOS3, @KC3
5. Mariners DET3, @SF3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 2 | | Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Reds (76%) TEX3, @MIL4Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics (43%) CHC3, @COL3 Lourdes Gurriel, OF, Diamondbacks (77%) @NYY3, @WAS3 Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Brewers (71%) KC3, CIN4 Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox (63%) @BAL3, STL3 | | Week 2 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks. | | Top sleeper pitches for Week 2 | | Drew Rasmussen, Rays (RP-eligible) (51%) vs. PIT, at TEX Kris Bubic, Royals (RP-eligible) (52%) at MIL, vs. BAL Chris Paddack, Twins (12%) at CHW, vs. HOU Reese Olson, Tigers (66%) vs. CHW Justin Verlander, Giants (74%) vs. SEA | | Weekend Standouts | | Good pitchers | | Jacob deGrom, Rangers vs. BOS: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Yep, that's what Jacob deGrom looks like. He averaged 96.7 mph on his four-seamer, down 0.6 but still good enough when paired with a slider that generated 10 whiffs on 20 swings, a simply bonkers number. The problem, if there is one, is the 73 pitches. The Rangers are going to be careful with his usage all season long, and so there will be more frustratingly abbreviated outings. But if it helps keep deGrom healthy (a questionable assertion, but one the Rangers are betting on), it'll be worth it. | | Joe Ryan, Twins @STL: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Ryan's velocity was down, as it was in the spring, but it didn't impact him much. But he also wasn't terribly impressive, generating just seven swinging strikes on 91 pitches. He went with a pretty fastball-heavy approach and the Cardinals didn't make him pay for it at 92.8 mph, but I think he's going to have to lean on the secondaries more moving forward to make this work. I'm not too worried here, but I'm not feeling great about Ryan, either. | | Robbie Ray, Giants vs. CIN: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Ray was neither great nor bad, but I remain pretty optimistic about his chances of being an impact arm. He threw his new changeup 10 times in this one as the Reds stacked the lineup with righties, and it wasn't a game-changer for him, as he struggled to locate it and got just two strikes with it. Continuing to work on that as a fourth pitch isn't a bad idea, but I think it would be a mistake for Ray to abandon his curveball, as he did in this one. There will be better days ahead. | | Jesus Luzardo , Phillies @WAS: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 K – Because he gets very little extension on his fastball, the margin for error for Luzardo is so slim. When he's sitting at 96 mph-plus with his fastball, it generally works out well for him, and he was at 96.9 in this one. That'll work, as did the new sweeper, which he threw 22 times for seven whiffs and a massive 59% CSW% (called plus swinging strikes). Luzardo, sitting 97, with three different swing-and-miss pitches to rely on? Yeah, this could work out really well. There are ways it can go wrong, but you should be pretty happy if you drafted Luzardo. | | Ryan Pepiot, Rays vs. COL: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Pepiot looked awesome in this one, especially with his changeup, which generated eight whiffs on 21 swings. That's going to be a big key for Pepiot, who can't necessarily rely on his four-seamer being as effective as it was last season now that he's not pitching half his games at Tropicana Field. The fastball should still be a good pitch, but if the changeup can be a legit putaway pitch – as it was as a prospect – he could still be a pretty high-upside arm. | | Nick Lodolo, Reds vs. SF: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K – The Giants are aggressive about platooning, and they stacked the lineup with righties, which might explain why he threw just 14 of them. That might explain why he had just eight swinging strikes on 86 pitches. Lodolo lost the feel for his curveball after a finger injury last season, and it's hard to see him being consistently productive without it, so let's hope this was just a one-start trend. | | Gavin Williams, Guardians @KC: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – Williams did not bring the strikeouts with him from the spring, so this is another one where the results were good, but not the process. And I'm less certain of Williams' ability to turn it around – he has a shorter track record of success at the MLB level than Lodolo, and he really needs his four-seamer to be elite to be a great pitcher. It can be that, given his velocity and extension, so I'm still hopeful. But I don't view him as a must-start option right now, at least. | | Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays vs. BAL: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – I'm probably even more iffy on Gausman than Williams. His fastball did pretty well with some added velocity, generating nine whiffs, but his splitter wasn't effective at all – just two swinging strikes and one called strike on 34 pitches. That pitch isn't diving off the plate the way it used to, and I just don't think I trust a fastball-reliant version of Gausman to thrive. I'd be looking to sell high off this start if I could. | | Jeffrey Springs, Athletics @SEA: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – I think there are two factors that generally keep the hype low on Springs. First, is the injury history, which is fair – he's shown very little ability to stay healthy in recent years. The other factor is his low fastball velocity, and I think that's just missing the forest for the trees here. Sure, it's not a hard fastball, coming in at 89.9 mph in this one. But when he's locating it up in the zone, it works well enough, especially since his changeup remains a devastating pitch to righties, generating nine whiffs in this one. He's not going to remain an elite strikeout pitcher, but he should be an above-average one, with solid ratios. He's worth adding where available. | | Max Meyer, Marlins vs. PIT: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – The velocity was up across the board and he showed the expanded arsenal, throwing all five of his pitches at least 11 times. The slider was still the only reliable swing-and-miss pitch for him, and that may catch up to him when facing a better lineup than Pittsburgh's. Still, Meyer was a hoped-for upside arm who showed some in his first start, so no reason to be scared off here, even if the upside is capped by the bad supporting cast around him. | | Justin Verlander, Giants @CIN: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Verlander keeps tinkering. His velocity was up 0.6 mph from last season, albeit with a slightly worse shape that probably makes it a draw. But the more interesting wrinkle here is the added velocity on the secondaries – his slider was up 1.5 mph, his changeup 1.6, and his curveball up 2.1 mph, with less break across both plains – he also may have been throwing a new sweeper, though the pitch classification systems seem to disagree on that, so we'll need more information. The end result was a pitcher who still looks pretty boring at this point in his career, so it might be much ado about nothing. | | Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays vs. BAL: 6 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Bassitt threw eight different pitches in this one, and that's the only way he can survive at this point: By keeping hitters off balance. His velocity continues to tick down, but let's not forget that Bassitt had a 3.60 ERA and 1.18 as recently as 2023. He might still be useful. | | JP Sears, Athletics @SEA: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – This was a good performance, but I think it reflects more on how good Seattle remains as a pitching venue than anything inherently interesting about Sears. He still has a bad fastball with no real go-to putaway pitch I believe in, so I'm chalking this one up as a matchups thing. | | Jack Kochanowicz, Angels @CWS: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – Similarly, I don't think this says much about Kochanowicz. That hard sinker is tough to elevate, but he misses bats so rarely that there just isn't much upside here. I will point out, Kochanowicz did lean on his four-seamer more in this one than last season, but I don't know if that fundamentally changes his outlook. I suppose if he could just be a regular, below-average strikeout pitcher rather than the most strikeout-averse pitcher in the majors, maybe you could see a path to being a useful Fantasy option, but he needs to do it against someone better than the White Sox before I buy that outside of deeper leagues. | | Bad pitching performances | | Max Fried, Yankees vs. MIL: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Nothing here looks especially alarming. His velocity and movement profiles were all more or less where we expected them to be, and the Yankees let him get up to 90 pitches, so no concerns physically. There will be much better days in the future. | | Roki Sasaki, Dodgers vs. DET: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – Yeah, I don't really have much positive to say about this one. There will be better days, if only because there can't be worse days coming than the two we've gotten so far. Sasaki has too much talent to be this bad forever. But his command is bad right now, and he doesn't seem to have the stuff to overcome that. Yet. It's still very early in his career, and the Dodgers are too smart not to figure things out here. But while they're trying to find the right answers, it's going to be tough to trust Sasaki. I'm not dropping him anywhere if I have him, but I'm not starting him if I can avoid it. | | Tanner Houck, Red Sox @TEX: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – The strikeouts abandoned Houck in the second half of last season, and he hasn't rediscovered them yet. He still generally has the ability to avoid worst-case scenarios because of how he limits hard contact, so I don't think the floor will ever get so low that Houck isn't usable. But it's been a while since he gave us a real reason to be excited. | | Tomoyuki Sugano, Orioles @TOR: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – Not having pinpoint control in your MLB debut is understandable, but Sugano probably doesn't have the stuff to survive without pinpoint control. He has a deep arsenal but generated just five swinging strikes in this one, so he'll have to execute better. If the command is better moving forward, it's not hard to see some upside – he averaged 93.5 with his four-seamer with good shape, so there could be some upside there. But he'll need to do a lot better than a 31% CSW% rate with his two fastballs to be worth using, so I'm keeping him on the bench until we start to see it. It's worth noting, he left this game with cramps but was feeling better after the game. | | Notable hitting performances | | Mookie Betts, SS, Dodgers – Who needs solid food, anyway? Betts is 4 for 9 through his first two games of the season, with a couple of homers in Friday's win over the Tigers – including the walkoff. He's not hitting the ball especially hard in the early going, but his bat speed isn't down noticeably, so I'm not sure there's really been any lingering impacts from his bout with food poisoning late in the spring. | | Yankees – All of them. They homered nine times on Saturday, which made their four-homer showing Sunday look disappointing by comparison. Much has been made of the new "torpedo" bats the Yankees are using, and while I think the logic behind them is interesting – basically, the bats are designed to redirect more mass to the point on the bat where hitters are most likely to make contact – I don't think this is some kind of existential crisis that is about to ruin baseball or give the Yankees a permanent edge on the competition – though those two things may be largely intertwined, depending on your perspective. If there was some kind of "one weird trick" that could dramatically alter an entire team's offense, someone probably would have come up with it before this. And, to be clear, this isn't actually all that new: Players were using these bats at times during last season, and there's some evidence that Ketel Marte might have been using a variant as far back as 2019. So, don't just go trading for every player on the Yankees because of this. | | Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Diamondbacks – Suarez is just picking up where he left off in the second half of 2024, with four homers in his first four games. I don't think Suarez is a .900 OPS bat, like he was after last year's All-Star break, but he didn't have to be to justify his draft cost – if he's just as good as his overall line from last season, he'll be well worth whatever you paid to draft him. I think he can be, which is why he's on a bunch of my teams. | | Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals – It's been a tough time for Crews so far, with eight strikeouts in his first 12 plate appearances. That alone wouldn't be enough to change my opinion of him, but it's also worth noting that, while Crews is hitting second when lefties are on the mound, he's dropped to eighth in both games against righties. That won't last if he hits like he's capable of, but his slow start is certainly making it less likely that he'll move up in the lineup and live up to the highest expectations of him. | | Kyle Manzardo, DH, Guardians – How do you go about quieting concerns that you are just a platoon bat in one weekend of action? Well, you can hit both of your homers in a three-game span off lefties. That might do it. Manzardo had an awesome September, he crushed it in Spring Training, and now he's off to an excellent start to the season. It's only three games, but it also isn't only three games, you know? | | News and notes | | Jose Ramirez was removed Saturday due to a sprained wrist he suffered on a stolen base attempt. Imaging came back negative, and the hope is he can be back in the lineup this week, so stay tuned. | | Josh Lowe went on the IL Saturday with a Grade 2 right oblique strain. That's probably going to be at least a month to recover, and hitters often struggle when they come back from oblique injuries – just see Lowe, Joshua, 2024. | | Josh Jung went to the IL with neck spasms. He just can't stay healthy at this point, and while the hope is it's just a minimum stay, it's another roadblock for a guy who has shown star potential in the past. | | Max Scherzer went on the IL with right thumb inflammation. Technically, he left Saturday's start with right lat soreness, but he blamed it on the lingering thumb injury and how it has impacted his mechanics. And it just doesn't seem to be going away, making it tough to bet on Scherzer figuring this out. He's worth stashing in an IL spot, but if you don't have one, Scherzer might be droppable. | | Trea Turner was scratched from the lineup Saturday due to lower back spasms. It sounds like he's going to get another day off Monday, with the hope he'll be back by Wednesday. He's a risky start this week. | | Ryan Walker did not pitch in a save opportunity Sunday due to back tightness, with Camilo Doval getting the save in his place. If Walker has to miss any time, Doval could be an impact closer. | | Gunnar Henderson played seven innings at shortstop in a minor-league rehab game Friday. He looks likely to be ready to come off the IL later this week when first eligible. | | Grayson Rodriguez threw a bullpen session Friday, his second time throwing off a mound since having a cortisone shot in his right elbow. He's probably still a month away from coming back, but any progress is welcome. | | JT Realmuto was removed from Saturday's game due to a left foot contusion, but it sounds like he'll play Monday if he avoids a setback. | | Sean Murphy will likely begin a rehab assignment at High-A on Friday. He's working back from a fractured rib and could be back in a couple of weeks. | | Lucas Giolito threw a bullpen Friday and could begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A in the coming week. He's been out since his spring debut due to a hamstring injury. | | | | | | | | NWSL | | Serie A | Catch two exciting NWSL matches on CBS Sports Network this Sunday starting with Chicago Stars FC vs. Racing Louisville FC at 4 ET followed by Angel City FC vs. Seattle Reign FC at 8 ET.
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| | On the heels of back-to-back losses, Juventus takes the pitch against Genoa. Catch all the action from Allianz Stadium this Saturday with coverage starting at 12:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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