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Sunday, September 15, 2024 |
Welcome to Sunday! We made it. What will Week 2 bring us? My focus is on the Chiefs today. I won't lie, I want Patrick Mahomes to put it on the Bengals for at least four touchdowns today. I'm using a ton of Isiah Pacheco in DFS tournaments, because I think he's a fantastic play who may go overlooked with many other popular RB plays, but I sure do want to see Xavier Worthy torch these jokers for at least one deep touchdown. I truly don't understand this Bengals team at all, how can they be so brash? What is it based in? A 2022 Super Bowl appearance? Yo, the Chiefs have won two rings since then! The Bengals are funny. |
Being a fan of a team is funny. I don't know any of the people involved on a personal level, and yet I am invested. I really care about the outcome of a game that these people who I have never met are playing! Grown men get together every week and play a game and I choose to let that impact my emotional state on some level. I get irritated almost anytime that I see Ja'Marr Chase in an interview, because I know that there's a decent chance that he is going to disrespect the group of strangers that I decided to invest rooting interest in. I don't know Xavier Worthy any better than I know Cam Taylor-Britt, but I will be rooting for Kansas City's rookie receiver to torch him today. Why? Because of my relative proximity at birth to the two respective organizations -- I was born closer to Kansas City, and so I have rooted for the Chiefs for my whole life. It's pretty silly, right? |
It is fun, though! It's not often that I let my NFL fandom split my NFL focus from my work these days, but the audacity of the Bengals has rooting for Kansas City at the forefront of my mind as I look forward to Week 2. There is so much to look forward to, though. Today's newsletter is a bit late, because I was traveling this weekend. I visited some family in Nebraska. On Saturday morning, I got to talk ball with four of my cousins while we played NCAA 25. For a couple of hours, we simply reveled in the fun of NFL fandom. We looked forward to each individual game and what we were the most excited for. We marveled at the coolness of Jordan Mason's Monday night breakout, the sheer awesomeness of Anthony Richardson's talent, and the never-ending dominance of Mike Evans. We each listed our top three favorite NFL wide receivers. I settled on Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Nico Collins. |
I ended up staying and talking with them for over an hour longer than I had planned. I was late for a group get together in Kansas City as a result. I've been running late ever since, today's newsletter is late. I'm going to be late to meet friends to watch today's games. I needed to get groceries, I don't know when I'll do that. But you know what, it was absolutely worth it. Even if today's games suck, even if the Chiefs get embarrassed by the Bengals, even if my beloved Kirk Cousins does not bounce back on Monday night, I believe that all of my emotional investment is worth it. That conversation with my cousins was so much fun. That was the most fun I've had in some time! It was also the most time that I've spent talking with them in some time! Why? Because we share this silly, funny, ridiculous investment in this game. That brought us together. |
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And I am really excited for this week's NFL DFS slate. There are several obvious plays, and I am looking to find ways to find leverage off of those plays. I am looking to embrace the chaos. What if the obvious does not happen? What if Jayden Daniels doesn't score the rushing touchdowns this week, but Brian Robinson does instead? |
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If B Rob is the Washington player who rushes for multiple touchdowns, those who use him and not Daniels will gain a ton of leverage on all of the competition who used Daniels in their DFS lineup. If B Rob outscores popular plays like Mason, Dobbins, and Zach Charbonnet at a similar price point, those who used Robinson will be at an advantage. He probably won't outscore those backs, but who knows? |
Welcome back to Sunday! Welcome back to chaos. |
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The DFS Helper should help point you in the right direction, but feel free to reach out to me on Twitter if you have any further questions! I try to respond to tweets throughout the week; I also have a weekly Twitter Q&A each Sunday morning to answer any lineup setting questions you have. Good luck this weekend everybody! |
DraftKings Main Slate Tiers |
Quarterback |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations Jayden Daniels ($6,200) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Justin Fields ($5,400), Patrick Mahomes ($7,000), Jayden Daniels ($6,200), Kyler Murray ($6,600), Jared Goff ($6,400), Matthew Stafford ($6,000), Anthony Richardson ($6,800) |
Fields is my favorite pivot off of Daniels. I am guessing that both Daniels and Murray will be more popular than Fields. Simply starting a tournament lineup with Fields + Brian Robinson is such an awesome way to create potential leverage against the masses if building Week 2 DFS lineups in an attempt to finish in the top five percent and turn a little bit of money into a lot. You'll probably end up just losing the little bit of money, to be honest. Historically, betting on Fields hasn't turned out all that well. But he did crush this Broncos defense last year! I'm telling you that there is a chance! |
Running Back |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks Jordan Mason ($5,200) |
This is not an easy matchup on the ground, which is where the bulk of Mason's touches came. You absolutely could consider fading him in tournament play. We could see 20 rushes for 57 yards and Deebo Samuel sniping him at the goal line. There's a LOT to like at RB this week. Fading Mason at massive rostered rates for slightly more expensive backs at low rostered rates could swing things in a massive way if San Fran's production comes through the air. If you're building a lineup in a contest where the goal is to finish in the top 10 percentile of contestants, then it might make sense to take a different route at RB. I honestly may do that in every single DFS tournament lineup that I build for Week 2. This is such an intriguing opportunity to gain easy leverage on the field of competitors. |
You wanna know the perfect price-point pivot off of Mason and Dobbins? Absolutely no one is going to want to play him. It's Najee Harris against the Denver Broncos defense. |
I also think that simply paying up at RB and down at WR is a really intriguing way to build DFS tournament lineups. With Mason and Dobbins available, I think people are going to be paying up for Cooper Kupp and Rashee Rice and maybe some of the other pricey wide receivers. There are a lot of cheap wide receivers who I love on this slate. You could pay up for Kyren Williams, he provides direct leverage off of Kupp. You could pay up for Breece Hall or Jonathan Taylor. Jahmyr Gibbs provides direct leverage off of Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown! There are so many interesting avenues for contrarianism on this slate, if that (losing money, probably!) is your cup of tea! |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration Alvin Kamara ($7,000), J.K. Dobbins ($5,400), Isiah Pacheco ($6,900), Kyren Williams ($6,800), Jerome Ford ($5,900), Breece Hall ($7,400), Jonathan Taylor ($7,700) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Kyren Williams ($6,800), Brian Robinson ($5,800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600), Najee Harris ($5,500), Jonathan Taylor ($7,700), Breece Hall ($7,400), James Conner ($6,400), Isiah Pacheco ($6,900), Tony Pollard ($5,900) |
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Wide Receiver |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks Cooper Kupp ($7,600) |
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Everything that I said about Jordan Mason applies to Kupp. He's obviously too cheap, but what if he doesn't score touchdowns? He can't possibly have more targets than last week, right? What if has a similar line but without a touchdown? If Kupp scores fewer than 30 PPR points, it's well within reason that CeeDee Lamb or Amon-Ra St. Brown could outscore him. Either of those two could go for 40+ in Week 2. |
Kupp is a lock for cash game builds but is not necessarily a must for tournament lineups. He might even be optimally faded. Good for him if so. |
Another cash game lock: |
Rashee Rice ($6,700) |
Easy-button play for cash, in my opinion. Even if the touchdowns don't go his way, Rice has the ability to go for 20+ or even 30+ with just raw receptions and yardage on any given week. He seriously might have a 30% target share if Travis Kelce is chilling this season. Wild stuff. He may be a PPR cheat code. |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration Jameson Williams ($5,300), Malik Nabers ($5,900), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100), CeeDee Lamb ($8,800), Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,300), Demarcus Robinson ($4,000) |
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Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Jalen McMillan ($3,600), Tyler Johnson ($3,300), Demarcus Robinson ($4,000), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100), CeeDee Lamb ($8,800), Rashee Rice ($6,700), Terry McLaurin ($5,700), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,900), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,500), Amari Cooper ($6,200), Luke McCaffrey ($3,800), Mike Evans ($7,500), Jameson Williams ($5,300), Cooper Kupp ($7,600), Ladd McConkey ($4,900) |
Tight End |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration Trey McBride ($6,000) |
This is a lock, for me, at least. I wonder if we might see low-ish rostered rates for McBride, too. Recency bias might put people on Isaiah Likely (even with Mark Andrews only $200 more expensive). And Brock Bowers is just $4,400, I could see him being popular. Please, let me get low rostered rates for McBride against the Rams defense at a reasonable price point. |
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Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Trey McBride ($6,000), Colby Parkinson ($3,100), Mark Andrews ($5,000) |
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FanDuel Main Slate Tiers |
Quarterback |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations Jayden Daniels ($7,900) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Patrick Mahomes ($8,700), Jayden Daniels ($7,900), Justin Fields ($7,000), Kyler Murray ($8,000), Anthony Richardson ($8,500), Jared Goff ($7,800), Matthew Stafford ($7,500) |
Running Back |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks Jordan Mason ($5,500) |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration J.K. Dobbins ($6,800), Jerome Ford ($6,300), Isiah Pacheco ($7,400), Alvin Kamara ($7,800) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Kyren Williams ($8,000), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,900), James Conner ($6,500), Jonathan Taylor ($8,200), Brian Robinson ($6,200), Breece Hall ($8,500), Najee Harris ($6,600), Tony Pollard ($6,700) |
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Wide Receiver |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks Cooper Kupp ($7,700), Rashee Rice ($6,900) |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration Jameson Williams ($5,700), Malik Nabers ($6,400), Wan'Dale Robinson ($5,400), Tyler Johnson ($4,000), Chris Godwin ($6,200), Luke McCaffrey ($4,300) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Tyler Johnson ($4,000), Tank Dell ($6,100), Jalen McMillan ($5,200), CeeDee Lamb ($9,100), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,000), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,500), Luke McCaffrey ($4,300), Terry McLaurin ($6,000), Demarcus Robinson ($5,200), Amari Cooper ($6,300), Mike Evans ($8,000), Rashee Rice ($6,900), Cooper Kupp ($7,700), Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,800), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000), Ladd McConkey ($5,700) |
Tight End |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration Trey McBride ($6,200) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Trey McBride ($6,200), Colby Parkinson ($4,800) |
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Optimal FanDuel Lineup |
QB -- Jayden Daniels RB -- Jordan Mason RB -- Jonathan Taylor WR -- Jameson Williams WR -- Rashee Rice WR -- Cooper Kupp TE -- Trey McBride FLEX -- J.K. Dobbins D/ST -- Steelers |
Tournament FanDuel Lineup |
Designed for large-field tournaments |
QB -- Kyler Murray RB -- Jonathan Taylor RB -- Tony Pollard WR -- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR -- Tyler Johnson WR -- CeeDee Lamb TE -- Trey McBride FLEX -- Kyren Williams D/ST -- Titans |
Week 2 Rankings Update |
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Quarterback |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Josh Allen QB2 - Jalen Hurts QB3 - Patrick Mahomes QB4 - Lamar Jackson |
Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB5 - Jayden Daniels QB6 - Anthony Richardson QB7 - Kyler Murray QB14 - Justin Fields |
Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB8 - C.J. Stroud QB9 - Jared Goff QB10 - Matthew Stafford QB11 - Tua Tagovailoa QB12 - Brock Purdy QB13 - Dak Prescott QB15 - Baker Mayfield QB16 - Joe Burrow |
Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB17 - Trevor Lawrence QB18 - Justin Herbert QB19 - Daniel Jones QB20 - Deshaun Watson QB21 - Caleb Williams QB22 - Derek Carr QB23 - Aaron Rodgers QB24 - Geno Smith QB25 - Kirk Cousins QB26 - Sam Darnold QB27 - Jacoby Brissett QB28 - Malik Willis QB29 - Bo Nix QB30 - Will Levis QB31 - Bryce Young QB32 - Gardner Minshew |
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Running Backs |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Bijan Robinson RB2 - Saquon Barkley RB3 - Breece Hall RB4 - Jonathan Taylor RB5 - Kyren Williams RB6 - Isiah Pacheco RB7 - Jahmyr Gibbs RB9 - Derrick Henry RB10 - Joe Mixon RB11 - James Cook RB12 - Jordan Mason RB13 - Alvin Kamara RB14 - Kenneth Walker RB15 - J.K. Dobbins RB16 - James Conner RB18 - Rachaad White RB19 - David Montgomery RB24 - Zach Charbonnet |
Tier 2 -- Role and matchup both check out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB17 - Josh Jacobs RB21 - Rhamondre Stevenson RB22 - Jerome Ford RB25 - Najee Harris RB28 - Brian Robinson |
Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB20 - Travis Etienne (matchup/role) RB23 - D'Andre Swift (matchup/offensive environment) RB26 - Tony Pollard (matchup/offensive environment) RB27 - Aaron Jones (matchup/offensive environment) RB29 - Zack Moss (matchup/offensive environment) |
Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously |
RB8 - De'Von Achane RB33 - Tyjae Spears (he could see a ton of targets in this spot) RB34 - Bucky Irving RB35 - Jaleel McLaughlin RB36 - Jaylen Warren RB38 - Tank Bigsby |
Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB29 - Devin Singletary RB30 - Ezekiel Elliott RB31 - Javonte Williams RB32 - Austin Ekeler RB37 - Alexander Mattison RB39 - Jeff Wilson Jr. RB40 - Zamir White RB41 - Gus Edwards RB42 - Chase Brown RB43 - Chuba Hubbard RB44 - Zach Charbonnet RB45 - Rico Dowdle |
Wide Receivers |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - Tyreek Hill WR2 - Cooper Kupp WR3 - CeeDee Lamb WR4 - Amon-Ra St. Brown WR5 - Rashee Rice WR6 - A.J. Brown WR7 - Ja'Marr Chase WR8 - Justin Jefferson WR9 - Deebo Samuel WR10 - Mike Evans |
Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR11 - Garrett Wilson WR12 - Jaylen Waddle WR13 - Nico Collins WR14 - Brandon Aiyuk WR15 - Chris Olave WR16 - DeVonta Smith *WR19 - Marvin Harrison Jr. WR21 - Zay Flowers WR22 - DJ Moore WR23 - Keenan Allen WR24 - Chris Godwin WR25 - Amari Cooper WR26 - Stefon Diggs WR27 - Terry McLaurin WR28 - Jameson Williams *WR30 - Xavier Worthy WR32 - Tank Dell WR34 - Jayden Reed WR37 - Brian Thomas Jr. WR38 - Ladd McConkey WR39 - Rashid Shaheed |
*A note on Worthy and Marvin Harrison Jr.: |
These two rookie receivers bring extremely wide ranges of outcomes. Either one could go for zero points. MHJ almost did it last week! You can watch all of his Week 1 routes here. The way that Arizona used him in Week 1 was suboptimal for his Fantasy outlook, there's no way around it. |
Similarly, Xavier Worthy was also used primarily as a space creator in Week 1. The main difference was that his coach schemed up touches for him and his QB found him when he was streaking wide open to the end zone. |
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Worthy + Patrick Mahomes + Andy Reid may be enough to just buck any previous trends. I hoped for more pre-snap motion and designed short-area catch-and-run targets. You can watch his three pre-snap motion routes here. Maybe more are coming. Maybe Hollywood Brown will fill more of a clearout role for this offense when healthy. I wouldn't bail on Worthy out of fear of this note. It's just worth noting. If you can sell him really high, go for it. I'd trade him for Chris Olave, for example. |
Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR17 - Malik Nabers WR20 - Davante Adams WR29 - DK Metcalf WR30 - Drake London WR32 - George Pickens |
Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR18 - Michael Pittman WR35 - Diontae Johnson (I know) WR43 - Joshua Palmer (I knowww) WR46 - Demarcus Robinson WR47 - Greg Dortch WR54 - Wan'Dale Robinson WR55 - Andrei Iosivas |
Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR40 - Khalil Shakir WR42 - Courtland Sutton WR44 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR45 - Keon Coleman WR50 - Jalen McMillan WR51 - Jerry Jeudy WR53 - Adonai Mitchell WR57 - Quentin Johnston |
Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR41 - Calvin Ridley WR48 - Christian Watson WR49 - Brandin Cooks WR52 - Tyler Lockett WR56 - Allen Lazard WR58 - Jakobi Meyers WR59 - Romeo Doubs WR60 - Gabe Davis |
Tight Ends |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Trey McBride TE2 - Sam LaPorta TE3 - Travis Kelce TE4 - Mark Andrews TE5 - Dalton Kincaid TE6 - George Kittle TE10 - Isaiah Likely (Sure, start him ahead of anyone other than McBride, LaPorta, or Kelce if you are feeling it) |
Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE7 - Kyle Pitts TE8 - Evan Engram TE9 - Brock Bowers |
Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE11 - Dallas Goedert TE12 - Dalton Schultz TE13 - Colby Parkinson TE14 - Pat Freiermuth TE15 - Hunter Henry TE16 - Taysom Hill TE17 - Tyler Conklin TE18 - Zach Ertz TE19 - Tucker Kraft TE20 - Noah Fant |
I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning for the foreseeable future! NFL is back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. Thank you! This is going to be fun! |
If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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| | | | | | It's a national doubleheader this Sunday along with an exclusive look at the Tulsa King Season 2 Official Trailer at halftime of the 4:25 ET games. Watch your local games live this Sunday at 1 ET and 4:25 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live | | The Fighting Irish and the Boilermakers go head-to-head this Saturday at 3:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live |
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