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Sunday, September 15, 2024
Welcome to Sunday! We made it. What will Week 2 bring us? My focus is on the Chiefs today. I won't lie, I want Patrick Mahomes to put it on the Bengals for at least four touchdowns today. I'm using a ton of Isiah Pacheco in DFS tournaments, because I think he's a fantastic play who may go overlooked with many other popular RB plays, but I sure do want to see Xavier Worthy torch these jokers for at least one deep touchdown. I truly don't understand this Bengals team at all, how can they be so brash? What is it based in? A 2022 Super Bowl appearance? Yo, the Chiefs have won two rings since then! The Bengals are funny.
Being a fan of a team is funny. I don't know any of the people involved on a personal level, and yet I am invested. I really care about the outcome of a game that these people who I have never met are playing! Grown men get together every week and play a game and I choose to let that impact my emotional state on some level. I get irritated almost anytime that I see Ja'Marr Chase in an interview, because I know that there's a decent chance that he is going to disrespect the group of strangers that I decided to invest rooting interest in. I don't know Xavier Worthy any better than I know Cam Taylor-Britt, but I will be rooting for Kansas City's rookie receiver to torch him today. Why? Because of my relative proximity at birth to the two respective organizations -- I was born closer to Kansas City, and so I have rooted for the Chiefs for my whole life. It's pretty silly, right?
It is fun, though! It's not often that I let my NFL fandom split my NFL focus from my work these days, but the audacity of the Bengals has rooting for Kansas City at the forefront of my mind as I look forward to Week 2. There is so much to look forward to, though. Today's newsletter is a bit late, because I was traveling this weekend. I visited some family in Nebraska. On Saturday morning, I got to talk ball with four of my cousins while we played NCAA 25. For a couple of hours, we simply reveled in the fun of NFL fandom. We looked forward to each individual game and what we were the most excited for. We marveled at the coolness of Jordan Mason's Monday night breakout, the sheer awesomeness of Anthony Richardson's talent, and the never-ending dominance of Mike Evans. We each listed our top three favorite NFL wide receivers. I settled on Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Nico Collins.
I ended up staying and talking with them for over an hour longer than I had planned. I was late for a group get together in Kansas City as a result. I've been running late ever since, today's newsletter is late. I'm going to be late to meet friends to watch today's games. I needed to get groceries, I don't know when I'll do that. But you know what, it was absolutely worth it. Even if today's games suck, even if the Chiefs get embarrassed by the Bengals, even if my beloved Kirk Cousins does not bounce back on Monday night, I believe that all of my emotional investment is worth it. That conversation with my cousins was so much fun. That was the most fun I've had in some time! It was also the most time that I've spent talking with them in some time! Why? Because we share this silly, funny, ridiculous investment in this game. That brought us together.
I am psyched for Week 2! J.K. Dobbins is in a prime position to continue his resurgence. I am falling in love with this Harbaugh-led Chargers team. I fall more in love with Arizona play-caller Drew Petzing every time I watch his offense , and we have a potentially high-powered offensive showdown between the Cardinals and Rams on tap this afternoon. Here's maybe the most obscure note I have for you today -- I am psyched that we may get to see some action for preseason MVP Kenny McIntosh in Week 2!
And I am really excited for this week's NFL DFS slate. There are several obvious plays, and I am looking to find ways to find leverage off of those plays. I am looking to embrace the chaos. What if the obvious does not happen? What if Jayden Daniels doesn't score the rushing touchdowns this week, but Brian Robinson does instead?
If B Rob is the Washington player who rushes for multiple touchdowns, those who use him and not Daniels will gain a ton of leverage on all of the competition who used Daniels in their DFS lineup. If B Rob outscores popular plays like Mason, Dobbins, and Zach Charbonnet at a similar price point, those who used Robinson will be at an advantage. He probably won't outscore those backs, but who knows?
Welcome back to Sunday! Welcome back to chaos.
The DFS Helper should help point you in the right direction, but feel free to reach out to me on Twitter if you have any further questions! I try to respond to tweets throughout the week; I also have a weekly Twitter Q&A each Sunday morning to answer any lineup setting questions you have. Good luck this weekend everybody!
DraftKings Main Slate Tiers
Quarterback
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations
Jayden Daniels ($6,200)
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Justin Fields ($5,400), Patrick Mahomes ($7,000), Jayden Daniels ($6,200), Kyler Murray ($6,600), Jared Goff ($6,400), Matthew Stafford ($6,000), Anthony Richardson ($6,800)
Fields is my favorite pivot off of Daniels. I am guessing that both Daniels and Murray will be more popular than Fields. Simply starting a tournament lineup with Fields + Brian Robinson is such an awesome way to create potential leverage against the masses if building Week 2 DFS lineups in an attempt to finish in the top five percent and turn a little bit of money into a lot. You'll probably end up just losing the little bit of money, to be honest. Historically, betting on Fields hasn't turned out all that well. But he did crush this Broncos defense last year! I'm telling you that there is a chance!
Running Back
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks
Jordan Mason ($5,200)
This is not an easy matchup on the ground, which is where the bulk of Mason's touches came. You absolutely could consider fading him in tournament play. We could see 20 rushes for 57 yards and Deebo Samuel sniping him at the goal line. There's a LOT to like at RB this week. Fading Mason at massive rostered rates for slightly more expensive backs at low rostered rates could swing things in a massive way if San Fran's production comes through the air. If you're building a lineup in a contest where the goal is to finish in the top 10 percentile of contestants, then it might make sense to take a different route at RB. I honestly may do that in every single DFS tournament lineup that I build for Week 2. This is such an intriguing opportunity to gain easy leverage on the field of competitors.
You wanna know the perfect price-point pivot off of Mason and Dobbins? Absolutely no one is going to want to play him. It's Najee Harris against the Denver Broncos defense.
I also think that simply paying up at RB and down at WR is a really intriguing way to build DFS tournament lineups. With Mason and Dobbins available, I think people are going to be paying up for Cooper Kupp and Rashee Rice and maybe some of the other pricey wide receivers. There are a lot of cheap wide receivers who I love on this slate. You could pay up for Kyren Williams, he provides direct leverage off of Kupp. You could pay up for Breece Hall or Jonathan Taylor. Jahmyr Gibbs provides direct leverage off of Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown! There are so many interesting avenues for contrarianism on this slate, if that (losing money, probably!) is your cup of tea!
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration
Alvin Kamara ($7,000), J.K. Dobbins ($5,400), Isiah Pacheco ($6,900), Kyren Williams ($6,800), Jerome Ford ($5,900), Breece Hall ($7,400), Jonathan Taylor ($7,700)
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Kyren Williams ($6,800), Brian Robinson ($5,800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600), Najee Harris ($5,500), Jonathan Taylor ($7,700), Breece Hall ($7,400), James Conner ($6,400), Isiah Pacheco ($6,900), Tony Pollard ($5,900)
Wide Receiver
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks
Cooper Kupp ($7,600)
You can watch all 21 of Kupp's Week 1 targets here. What do you think? Is he back?!
Everything that I said about Jordan Mason applies to Kupp. He's obviously too cheap, but what if he doesn't score touchdowns? He can't possibly have more targets than last week, right? What if has a similar line but without a touchdown? If Kupp scores fewer than 30 PPR points, it's well within reason that CeeDee Lamb or Amon-Ra St. Brown could outscore him. Either of those two could go for 40+ in Week 2.
Kupp is a lock for cash game builds but is not necessarily a must for tournament lineups. He might even be optimally faded. Good for him if so.
Another cash game lock:
Rashee Rice ($6,700)
Easy-button play for cash, in my opinion. Even if the touchdowns don't go his way, Rice has the ability to go for 20+ or even 30+ with just raw receptions and yardage on any given week. He seriously might have a 30% target share if Travis Kelce is chilling this season. Wild stuff. He may be a PPR cheat code.
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration
Jameson Williams ($5,300), Malik Nabers ($5,900), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100), CeeDee Lamb ($8,800), Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,300), Demarcus Robinson ($4,000)
We saw 12 targets and 44 receiving yards for Wan'Dale Robinson in the Giants season opener. You can watch those here.
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Jalen McMillan ($3,600), Tyler Johnson ($3,300), Demarcus Robinson ($4,000), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100), CeeDee Lamb ($8,800), Rashee Rice ($6,700), Terry McLaurin ($5,700), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,900), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,500), Amari Cooper ($6,200), Luke McCaffrey ($3,800), Mike Evans ($7,500), Jameson Williams ($5,300), Cooper Kupp ($7,600), Ladd McConkey ($4,900)
Tight End
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration
Trey McBride ($6,000)
This is a lock, for me, at least. I wonder if we might see low-ish rostered rates for McBride, too. Recency bias might put people on Isaiah Likely (even with Mark Andrews only $200 more expensive). And Brock Bowers is just $4,400, I could see him being popular. Please, let me get low rostered rates for McBride against the Rams defense at a reasonable price point.
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Trey McBride ($6,000), Colby Parkinson ($3,100), Mark Andrews ($5,000)
FanDuel Main Slate Tiers
Quarterback
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations
Jayden Daniels ($7,900)
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Patrick Mahomes ($8,700), Jayden Daniels ($7,900), Justin Fields ($7,000), Kyler Murray ($8,000), Anthony Richardson ($8,500), Jared Goff ($7,800), Matthew Stafford ($7,500)
Running Back
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks
Jordan Mason ($5,500)
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration
J.K. Dobbins ($6,800), Jerome Ford ($6,300), Isiah Pacheco ($7,400), Alvin Kamara ($7,800)
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Kyren Williams ($8,000), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,900), James Conner ($6,500), Jonathan Taylor ($8,200), Brian Robinson ($6,200), Breece Hall ($8,500), Najee Harris ($6,600), Tony Pollard ($6,700)
Wide Receiver
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks
Cooper Kupp ($7,700), Rashee Rice ($6,900)
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration
Jameson Williams ($5,700), Malik Nabers ($6,400), Wan'Dale Robinson ($5,400), Tyler Johnson ($4,000), Chris Godwin ($6,200), Luke McCaffrey ($4,300)
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Tyler Johnson ($4,000), Tank Dell ($6,100), Jalen McMillan ($5,200), CeeDee Lamb ($9,100), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,000), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,500), Luke McCaffrey ($4,300), Terry McLaurin ($6,000), Demarcus Robinson ($5,200), Amari Cooper ($6,300), Mike Evans ($8,000), Rashee Rice ($6,900), Cooper Kupp ($7,700), Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,800), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000), Ladd McConkey ($5,700)
Tight End
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration
Trey McBride ($6,200)
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Trey McBride ($6,200), Colby Parkinson ($4,800)
Optimal FanDuel Lineup
QB -- Jayden Daniels
RB -- Jordan Mason
RB -- Jonathan Taylor
WR -- Jameson Williams
WR -- Rashee Rice
WR -- Cooper Kupp
TE -- Trey McBride
FLEX -- J.K. Dobbins
D/ST -- Steelers
Tournament FanDuel Lineup
Designed for large-field tournaments
QB -- Kyler Murray
RB -- Jonathan Taylor
RB -- Tony Pollard
WR -- Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR -- Tyler Johnson
WR -- CeeDee Lamb
TE -- Trey McBride
FLEX -- Kyren Williams
D/ST -- Titans
Week 2 Rankings Update
Quarterback
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
QB1 - Josh Allen
QB2 - Jalen Hurts
QB3 - Patrick Mahomes
QB4 - Lamar Jackson
Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk
QB5 - Jayden Daniels
QB6 - Anthony Richardson
QB7 - Kyler Murray
QB14 - Justin Fields
Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers
QB8 - C.J. Stroud
QB9 - Jared Goff
QB10 - Matthew Stafford
QB11 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB12 - Brock Purdy
QB13 - Dak Prescott
QB15 - Baker Mayfield
QB16 - Joe Burrow
Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players
QB17 - Trevor Lawrence
QB18 - Justin Herbert
QB19 - Daniel Jones
QB20 - Deshaun Watson
QB21 - Caleb Williams
QB22 - Derek Carr
QB23 - Aaron Rodgers
QB24 - Geno Smith
QB25 - Kirk Cousins
QB26 - Sam Darnold
QB27 - Jacoby Brissett
QB28 - Malik Willis
QB29 - Bo Nix
QB30 - Will Levis
QB31 - Bryce Young
QB32 - Gardner Minshew
Running Backs
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
RB1 - Bijan Robinson
RB2 - Saquon Barkley
RB3 - Breece Hall
RB4 - Jonathan Taylor
RB5 - Kyren Williams
RB6 - Isiah Pacheco
RB7 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB9 - Derrick Henry
RB10 - Joe Mixon
RB11 - James Cook
RB12 - Jordan Mason
RB13 - Alvin Kamara
RB14 - Kenneth Walker
RB15 - J.K. Dobbins
RB16 - James Conner
RB18 - Rachaad White
RB19 - David Montgomery
RB24 - Zach Charbonnet
Tier 2 -- Role and matchup both check out, but can we trust the offensive environment?
RB17 - Josh Jacobs
RB21 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB22 - Jerome Ford
RB25 - Najee Harris
RB28 - Brian Robinson
Tier 5 -- I have several concerns
RB20 - Travis Etienne (matchup/role)
RB23 - D'Andre Swift (matchup/offensive environment)
RB26 - Tony Pollard (matchup/offensive environment)
RB27 - Aaron Jones (matchup/offensive environment)
RB29 - Zack Moss (matchup/offensive environment)
Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously
RB8 - De'Von Achane 
RB33 - Tyjae Spears (he could see a ton of targets in this spot)
RB34 - Bucky Irving
RB35 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB36 - Jaylen Warren
RB38 - Tank Bigsby
Tier 7 -- Desperation plays
RB29 - Devin Singletary
RB30 - Ezekiel Elliott
RB31 - Javonte Williams
RB32 - Austin Ekeler
RB37 - Alexander Mattison
RB39 - Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB40 - Zamir White
RB41 - Gus Edwards
RB42 - Chase Brown
RB43 - Chuba Hubbard
RB44 - Zach Charbonnet
RB45 - Rico Dowdle
Wide Receivers
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
WR1 - Tyreek Hill
WR2 - Cooper Kupp
WR3 - CeeDee Lamb
WR4 - Amon-Ra St. Brown 
WR5 - Rashee Rice
WR6 - A.J. Brown
WR7 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR8 - Justin Jefferson
WR9 - Deebo Samuel
WR10 - Mike Evans
Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score
WR11 - Garrett Wilson
WR12 - Jaylen Waddle
WR13 - Nico Collins
WR14 - Brandon Aiyuk
WR15 - Chris Olave
WR16 - DeVonta Smith
*WR19 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR21 - Zay Flowers
WR22 - DJ Moore
WR23 - Keenan Allen
WR24 - Chris Godwin
WR25 - Amari Cooper
WR26 - Stefon Diggs
WR27 - Terry McLaurin
WR28 - Jameson Williams
*WR30 - Xavier Worthy
WR32 - Tank Dell
WR34 - Jayden Reed
WR37 - Brian Thomas Jr.
WR38 - Ladd McConkey
WR39 - Rashid Shaheed
*A note on Worthy and Marvin Harrison Jr.:
These two rookie receivers bring extremely wide ranges of outcomes. Either one could go for zero points. MHJ almost did it last week! You can watch all of his Week 1 routes here. The way that Arizona used him in Week 1 was suboptimal for his Fantasy outlook, there's no way around it.
Similarly, Xavier Worthy was also used primarily as a space creator in Week 1. The main difference was that his coach schemed up touches for him and his QB found him when he was streaking wide open to the end zone.
If this role sticks, though, it will be a lot for Worthy to overcome for Fantasy purposes. He ran a 'go' route on almost half of his preseason routes. That carried over to Week 1.
Worthy + Patrick Mahomes + Andy Reid may be enough to just buck any previous trends. I hoped for more pre-snap motion and designed short-area catch-and-run targets. You can watch his three pre-snap motion routes here. Maybe more are coming. Maybe Hollywood Brown will fill more of a clearout role for this offense when healthy. I wouldn't bail on Worthy out of fear of this note. It's just worth noting. If you can sell him really high, go for it. I'd trade him for Chris Olave, for example.
Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2
WR17 - Malik Nabers
WR20 - Davante Adams
WR29 - DK Metcalf
WR30 - Drake London
WR32 - George Pickens
Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential)
WR18 - Michael Pittman
WR35 - Diontae Johnson (I know)
WR43 - Joshua Palmer (I knowww)
WR46 - Demarcus Robinson
WR47 - Greg Dortch
WR54 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR55 - Andrei Iosivas
Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun!
WR40 - Khalil Shakir
WR42 - Courtland Sutton
WR44 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR45 - Keon Coleman
WR50 - Jalen McMillan
WR51 - Jerry Jeudy
WR53 - Adonai Mitchell
WR57 - Quentin Johnston
Tier 6 -- Desperation plays
WR41 - Calvin Ridley
WR48 - Christian Watson
WR49 - Brandin Cooks
WR52 - Tyler Lockett
WR56 - Allen Lazard
WR58 - Jakobi Meyers
WR59 - Romeo Doubs
WR60 - Gabe Davis
Tight Ends
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
TE1 - Trey McBride
TE2 - Sam LaPorta
TE3 - Travis Kelce
TE4 - Mark Andrews
TE5 - Dalton Kincaid
TE6 - George Kittle
TE10 - Isaiah Likely (Sure, start him ahead of anyone other than McBride, LaPorta, or Kelce if you are feeling it)
Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up
TE7 - Kyle Pitts
TE8 - Evan Engram
TE9 - Brock Bowers
Tier 3 -- Streamers
TE11 - Dallas Goedert
TE12 - Dalton Schultz
TE13 - Colby Parkinson
TE14 - Pat Freiermuth
TE15 - Hunter Henry
TE16 - Taysom Hill
TE17 - Tyler Conklin
TE18 - Zach Ertz
TE19 - Tucker Kraft
TE20 - Noah Fant
I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning for the foreseeable future! NFL is back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. Thank you! This is going to be fun!
If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan!
 
 
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