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| Tuesday, September 10, 2024 |
| One of the strangest Week 1's that I can remember has come and gone. How we feeling? It felt like it was probably a terrible Fantasy football week for me, but I ended up slightly above .500 across all of my leagues. I wonder if it was kind of that way for everyone on a wildly unpredictable week. |
| Let's move onto Week 2! Of course, first, we must figure out how to navigate the waiver wire. You can find the FFT crew's breakdown of the waiver wire here. |
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| You can expect these Tuesday newsletters to arrive in the afternoons. I'm aiming to have the other iterations to you for your lunch breaks, but Tuesdays I am not going to push myself too hard. I was up until midnight working on Sunday, woke up at 5, and then worked until after the Monday night football game. Tuesdays I am going to rest up a bit as I prepare for the upcoming week. |
| I'll start you off by providing a quick glance at my waiver wire thoughts and follow that up with an early look at tiered rankings for the upcoming week. These Tuesdays will be your quickest reads of the week! |
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| Here are my top waiver wire targets and the range of FAAB that I would be willing to spend: |
| Isaiah Likely -- I'd be comfortable going as high as 25% if you need a tight end. |
Baker Mayfield -- Week 2 brings a dome matchup and projected shootout against Detroit. I'd go 0-5% in 1QB leagues. If he's available in a 2QB league, I'd be comfortable going as high as 25%. The offense looks great, I love the receiving room.
Justin Fields -- We could see a big rushing total against a leaky tackling unit in Denver in Week 2. I'd go 0-5% in 1QB leagues and up to 25% in 2QB leagues. The rushing makes Fields a top-15 weekly Fantasy QB option. |
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Jordan Mason -- I'd go as high as 15-20% if he's available. The injury reporting is weird, who knows if we'll even get another start out of Mason. He's a stud, though. It's clear that the run game can work with him as the primary option.
Tank Bigbsy -- Up to 10%
Zach Charbonnet -- Up to 10%
Jaylen Wright -- Up to 10%
Bucky Irving -- Up to 5%
Jeff Wilson -- Up to 5%
Alexander Mattison -- Up to 5% |
| Rashid Shaheed -- He's rostered in less than 50% of CBS leagues, somehow. I'd go up to 35%. We talked all summer about how much Shaheed would benefit from an increase in play action and pre-snap motion, and the Saints ranked third and first, respectively, in a massive offensive showing in Week 1. |
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Demarcus Robinson -- I'd go up to 15%
Jalen McMillan -- I'd go up to 10% in deep leagues, but you can probably get him for cheaper.
Adonai Mitchell -- I'd go up to 10% in deep leagues, but you can probably get him for cheaper.
Xavier Legette -- A good portion of his production came at the end of a blowout. He's a 0-5% player at this point.
Tyler Johnson -- 0-5% |
Colby Parkinson -- I'd go up to 15% if you need a TE but would prefer to get him for cheaper.
Tyler Conklin -- I'd go up to 10% if you need a TE but would prefer to get him for cheaper. |
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| If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here! |
| Another reminder: each Friday, we'll go 'In The Lab' in this space: |
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| If you have want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Week 2 Rankings |
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| Quarterback |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Josh Allen
QB2 - Lamar Jackson
QB3 - Jalen Hurts
QB4 - Patrick Mahomes |
| Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB5 - Jayden Daniels
QB6 - Anthony Richardson
QB7 - Kyler Murray
QB16 - Justin Fields |
| Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB8 - C.J. Stroud
QB9 - Jared Goff
QB10 - Matthew Stafford
QB11 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB12 - Brock Purdy
QB13 - Dak Prescott
QB14 - Joe Burrow
QB15 - Baker Mayfield |
| Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB17 - Trevor Lawrence
QB18 - Justin Herbert
QB19 - Daniel Jones
QB20 - Deshaun Watson
QB21 - Caleb Williams
QB22 - Derek Carr
QB23 - Aaron Rodgers
QB24 - Geno Smith
QB25 - Kirk Cousins
QB26 - Sam Darnold
QB27 - Jacoby Brissett
QB28 - Malik Willis
QB29 - Bo Nix
QB30 - Will Levis
QB31 - Bryce Young
QB32 - Gardner Minshew |
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| Running Backs |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Bijan Robinson
RB2 - Saquon Barkley
RB3 - Breece Hall
RB4 - Jonathan Taylor
RB5 - Kyren Williams
RB6 - Isiah Pacheco
RB7 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB8 - De'Von Achane (Q)
RB9 - Derrick Henry
RB10 - Joe Mixon
RB11 - Jordan Mason if CMC is out
RB12 - James Cook
RB13 - James Conner
RB14 - Kenneth Walker
RB15 - Alvin Kamara
RB17 - Rachaad White
RB19 - David Montgomery
RB20 - J.K. Dobbins |
| Tier 2 -- Role and matchup both check out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB16 - Josh Jacobs
RB21 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB22 - Jerome Ford
RB25 - Najee Harris
RB28 - Brian Robinson |
| Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB18 - Travis Etienne (matchup/role)
RB23 - D'Andre Swift (matchup/offensive environment)
RB24 - Zack Moss (matchup/offensive environment)
RB26 - Aaron Jones (matchup/offensive environment)
RB27 - Tony Pollard (matchup/offensive environment) |
| Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously |
RB29 - Raheem Mostert (Q)
RB34 - Tyjae Spears (he could see a ton of targets in this spot)
RB35 - Bucky Irving
RB36 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB37 - Jaylen Warren
RB39 - Tank Bigsby |
| Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB30 - Devin Singletary
RB31 - Ezekiel Elliott
RB32 - Javonte Williams
RB33 - Austin Ekeler
RB38 - Alexander Mattison
RB40 - Zamir White
RB41 - Gus Edwards
RB42 - Chase Brown
RB43 - Chuba Hubbard
RB44 - Zach Charbonnet
RB45 - Rico Dowdle |
| Wide Receivers |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - Tyreek Hill
WR2 - Cooper Kupp
WR3 - CeeDee Lamb
WR4 - Rashee Rice
WR5 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR6 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR7 - A.J. Brown
WR8 - Justin Jefferson
WR9 - Deebo Samuel
WR10 - Mike Evans |
| Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR11 - Garrett Wilson
WR12 - Jaylen Waddle
WR13 - Nico Collins
WR14 - Brandon Aiyuk
WR15 - Chris Olave
WR16 - DeVonta Smith
*WR19 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR21 - Zay Flowers
WR22 - DJ Moore
WR23 - Keenan Allen
WR24 - Chris Godwin
WR25 - Amari Cooper
WR26 - Stefon Diggs
WR27 - Terry McLaurin
WR28 - Jameson Williams
*WR30 - Xavier Worthy
WR32 - Tank Dell
WR34 - Jayden Reed
WR37 - Brian Thomas Jr.
WR38 - Ladd McConkey
WR39 - Rashid Shaheed |
| *A note on Worthy and Marvin Harrison Jr.: |
| These two rookie receivers bring extremely wide ranges of outcomes. Either one could go for zero points. MHJ almost did it last week! You can watch all of his Week 1 routes here. The way that Arizona used him in Week 1 was suboptimal for his Fantasy outlook, there's no way around it. |
| Similarly, Xavier Worthy was also used primarily as a space creator in Week 1. The main difference was that his coach schemed up touches for him and his QB found him when he was streaking wide open to the end zone. |
| If this role sticks, though, it will be a lot for Worthy to overcome for Fantasy purposes. He ran a 'go' route on almost half of his preseason routes. That carried over to Week 1. |
| Worthy + Patrick Mahomes + Andy Reid may be enough to just buck any previous trends. I hoped for more pre-snap motion and designed short-area catch-and-run targets. You can watch his three pre-snap motion routes here. Maybe more are coming. Maybe Hollywood Brown will fill more of a clearout role for this offense when healthy. I wouldn't bail on Worthy out of fear of this note. It's just worth noting. If you can sell him really high, go for it. I'd trade him for Chris Olave, for example. |
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| Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR17 - Malik Nabers
WR20 - Davante Adams
WR29 - DK Metcalf
WR30 - Drake London
WR32 - George Pickens |
| Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR18 - Michael Pittman
WR35 - Diontae Johnson (I know)
WR43 - Joshua Palmer (I knowww)
WR46 - Demarcus Robinson
WR47 - Greg Dortch
WR54 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR55 - Andrei Iosivas |
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| Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR40 - Khalil Shakir
WR42 - Courtland Sutton
WR44 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR45 - Keon Coleman
WR50 - Jalen McMillan
WR51 - Jerry Jeudy
WR53 - Adonai Mitchell
WR57 - Quentin Johnston |
| Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR41 - Calvin Ridley
WR48 - Christian Watson
WR49 - Brandin Cooks
WR52 - Tyler Lockett
WR56 - Allen Lazard
WR58 - Jakobi Meyers
WR59 - Romeo Doubs
WR60 - Gabe Davis |
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| Tight Ends |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Trey McBride
TE2 - Sam LaPorta
TE3 - Travis Kelce
TE4 - Mark Andrews
TE5 - Dalton Kincaid
TE6 - George Kittle
TE10 - Isaiah Likely (Sure, start him ahead of anyone other than McBride, LaPorta, or Kelce if you are feeling it) |
| Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE7 - Kyle Pitts
TE8 - Evan Engram
TE9 - Brock Bowers |
| Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE11 - Dallas Goedert
TE12 - Dalton Schultz
TE13 - Colby Parkinson
TE14 - Pat Freiermuth
TE15 - Hunter Henry
TE16 - Taysom Hill
TE17 - Tyler Conklin
TE18 - Zach Ertz
TE19 - Tucker Kraft
TE20 - Noah Fant |
| If you haven't listened to the podcast version of Beyond the Box Score, it's good stuff! And if you want to learn about what went into one of the grossest weeks in recent history at the quarterback position, I created a thread detailing each quarterback's underlying Week 1 information. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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