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Monday, August 19, 2024
The playoffs are pretty much here in all H2H points leagues, and we're in the real stretch run in Rotisserie leagues, so every week really counts. Let's get to everything you need to know to set your Week 22 lineup, plus our recap of this weekend's biggest news from around MLB
Week 22 Preview
Before we get to the top targets to add: You can go ahead and drop Garrett Crochet now. He was actually brilliant in his start this weekend, striking out nine batters in four innings ... and that's all. He only threw 55 pitches, and if the White Sox aren't going to give him any leash when he's pitching that efficiently, I don't see much reason to think he's going to have any value the rest of the way. He hasn't thrown five innings in a start since June. 
C: Joey Bart, Pirates (29%) 
1B: Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (32%)
2B: Jace Jung, Tigers (19%)
3B: Max Muncy, Dodgers (75%) 
SS: Tommy Edman, Dodgers (55%) 
OF: Kerry Carpenter , Tigers (72%), Parker Meadows, Tigers (20%), JJ Bleday, Athletics (46%)
SP: Jeffrey Springs, Rays (69%), Kyle Harrison, Giants (70%), Martin Perez, Padres (29%)
Best hitter matchups for Week 22:
1. Cubs DET3, @MIA3
2. Yankees CLE3, COL3
3. Blue Jays CIN3, LAA4
4. Tigers @CHC3, @CHW3
5. Brewers @STL3, @OAK3
Worst hitter matchups for Week 22:
1. Dodgers SEA3, TB3
2. Phillies @ATL3, @KC3
3. Red Sox @HOU3, ARI3
4. Mets BAL3, @SD4
5. Marlins ARI3, CHC3
Top sleeper hitters for Week 22:
1. Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers (67%) @CHC3, @CHW3
2. Brandon Lowe, 2B, Rays (74%) @OAK4, @LAD3
3. Michael Busch, 1B, Cubs (72%) DET3, @MIA3
4. Josh Bell, 1B, Diamondbacks (70%) @MIA3, @BOS3
5. Jake McCarthy, OF, Diamondbacks (54%) @MIA3, @BOS3
You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." 
Top sleeper pitches for Week 21:
1. Kyle Harrison, Giants (65%) vs. CHW, at SEA
2. Jeffrey Springs, Rays (67%) at OAK
3. Martin Perez, Padres (29%) vs. MIN, vs. NYM
4. DavidJohn Herz, Nationals (17%) vs. COL, at ATL
5. Jordan Montgomery, Diamondbacks (64%) at MIA
Weekend Standouts
Good pitching
Chris Sale, Braves @LAA: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – Once Sale established that he was back , the only real question was, "Well, how sustainable is it?" After all, Sale had thrown just 151 innings between 2020 and 2023 combined, so it was a fair question to ask of a 35-year-old with his injury history. And, while that's a question that can't truly be answered until after the season, Sale now has a 2.35 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 30.2 innings since the All-Star break, so I think we can stop asking it, all the same. 
Blake Snell, Giants @OAK: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – I think we're at the point where this kind of performance from Snell just isn't noteworthy anymore. He has three double-digit strikeout efforts in his past four and has a 0.99 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 45.1 innings since coming off the IL on July 9. Given his history, it's a fool's errand to try to pretend like anyone can predict how Snell will pitch moving forward. But once he locks in, it tends to be for good, so I'm willing to rank Snell as a top-15 pitcher and just worry about the regression in the offseason. 
Framber Valdez, Astros vs. CHW: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – There's really nothing to say about Valdez's rest-of-season value; you're starting him. But we're at the point where projecting his 2025 value is a really fascinating question, because we're seeing material improvements to his skill set over the past couple of months, so what if he holds that through the end of the season? On July 10, Valdez threw his curveball a then-season-high 38% of the time, and he hasn't been below 37% in any start since; he maxed out at 32% prior to that start. He struck out 10 batters in that start and has gone 5-0 with 50 strikeouts in 39.1 innings of work while sporting a 2.29 ERA in that span. Valdez has long felt like a high-floor, relatively-low-ceiling No. 2/3 starter for Fantasy, but if this strikeout increase sticks, he's clearly worth more than that. It's going to be one of the most interesting trends to watch the rest of the way.
Gerrit Cole, Yankees @DET: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – The natural tendency here is always going to be to compare Cole to the guy he used to be, and by that measure, even this very good start falls short; 13 swinging strikes on 95 pitches against the Tigers isn't exactly dominant, and the fact that only two of those whiffs came on the slider definitely isn't what we've come to know from him. Still, the overall results were pretty great, so maybe we're doing him a disservice by constantly comparing Cole to who he was before this season. Can he still be an effective Fantasy pitcher with this more curveball-heavy approach? Well, it's working right now, with two or fewer earned runs in five of his past six starts. He's not Gerrit Cole (™), but he still looks like a pretty good Fantasy option. 
Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies vs. WAS: 9 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – Sanchez looked like he was starting to run out of steam a bit, with a 6.63 ERA in his previous six starts, so this was a much-needed one. The strikeouts still aren't there – just 29 in 47 innings since July 1 – but the control remains very good, as does the overall quality of contact suppression. Sanchez probably can't be a consistent ace without at least average strikeout production, but I don't see myself benching him moving forward. 
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers @STL: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – Kershaw is a good example of a once-elite pitcher whose limitations we've accepted, and it remains stunning how effective he still is at this point in his career. That said, the lack of strikeouts is notable, obviously, as is the fact that he still hasn't thrown more than 83 pitches in his five starts. Clearly, that doesn't preclude the possibility of a good performance in any given game, but it does make it pretty much impossible to call Kershaw a "must-start pitcher" at this point. 
Joe Musgrove , Padres @COL: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Musgrove looked … fine in his first two starts back from his elbow injury this week. I never want to harp too much on the results from a Coors Field start, but the underlying process looks good, including the fact that Musgrove felt confident to lead with his curveball and cutter and that his velocity was up over 1 mph on all but his changeup – no sure thing in either regard when coming back from an elbow injury, as we've seen multiple times this season with other pitchers. That doesn't prove that Musgrove is fine, but it's a good reason for optimism, at least. We'll take that. 
Ryan Pepiot, Rays vs. ARI: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – In his first start in over a month due to an infection in his left, Pepiot looks like himself. He dominated primarily with his four-seamer, generating eight of his 11 whiffs with that pitch, and it's been his best swing-and-miss pitch all season. I think that also helps explain some of his inconsistency – he's often overwhelmingly reliant on that one pitch, and if he doesn't have it, well, bad things can happen. Still, the upside here is high enough that I'm comfortable with him in my starting lineup more often than not. 
Jeffrey Springs, Rays vs. ARI: 5 H, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – The changeup is back! Over his past two starts, Springs has 15 strikeouts over 10 innings while allowing just two earned runs. His fastball velocity is still down, and he still hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches in a start yet, but if you were holding out for a reason to have faith, the past two starts have certainly given you that. 
Brady Singer, Royals @CIN: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – With 10 earned runs in 10.2 innings over his previous two starts, it sure looked like Singer's luck was finally starting to run out. Singer didn't really change anything about his approach here, but he executed at a high level and generated all 15 of his whiffs on his slider and sinker, which he continues to throw about 80% of the time in most starts. I still don't have much faith in it – his 4.56 xERA is a big part of why – but hey if you didn't drop him yet, I guess you don't need to now. Though I'm not sure I want him in my lineup with a start against the Phillies on the way this week (and either the Guardians or Astros next week). 
Colin Rea, Brewers vs. CLE: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Like Singer, this was a big bounceback start for Rea after what looked like a "he got figured out" outing. And, like with Singer, I still don't believe in it. Rea is a 33-year-old with a 5.08 xERA for the season, so I'm just going to keep betting against him. He's a fringe starter for the upcoming matchup against the A's in Oakland. 
Luis Severino, Mets vs. MIA: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Severino had allowed 14 earned runs in his previous three starts, but hey, at least he proved he can still thrive against a matchup like the Marlins. His next two starts are set to come against the Padres and Diamondbacks, so I don't think I have much interest in rolling the dice on this one again. Let's just hope the schedule after that lines up for the series against the White Sox. 
JP Sears , Athletics vs. SF: 7.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Sears somehow managed to generate 14 swings and misses with his four-seamer Sunday, which is incredibly impressive but doesn't feel super sustainable to me – except that it's the key factor to his string of four straight starts with at least seven innings pitched. His whiff rate with the four-seamer has been at least 33% in each of those four starts, leading to 27 strikeouts in 28.2 innings of work. Of course, it's worth noting that he faced the Giants in two of those four starts and had nine strikeouts in each; he had just nine in the other two combined. He just seems to have that lineup's number, but I'm not sure how transferable this approach is to other matchups. He's a decent starter against the Brewers this week, but not a must-start. 
Bowden Francis , Blue Jays @CHC: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – You might look at Francis' 4.60 career ERA and write him off as a non-entity, but I think there's an important detail to note. He had horrendous home run issues in the minors, allowing 1.7 per nine innings in Triple-A, but this season he's added a splitter that has become an excellent groundball pitch and could be helping make up for one of the biggest flaws in his game. Overall, the numbers are pretty mediocre still, but he's starting to get hot, with 22 strikeouts and only three earned runs in 19 innings over the past three starts – and, perhaps no surprise, his splitter usage is up to a season-high 19.2% in August so far. There might be something here. 
Bad Pitching
Corbin Burnes, Orioles vs. BOS: 4 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – This feels like a huge outlier for Burnes, but it does highlight an ugly truth: He just doesn't seem to have that elite upside anymore. I still rank him among the high-end pitchers in Fantasy because he has a super-high floor, but his cutter has fallen from a 32.1% whiff rate in 2021 to just 17.4% this season, a significant drop. I'm still starting Burnes in all formats, but it does feel like the days of him being one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball are well and truly gone. 
Luis Castillo, Mariners @PIT: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Castillo recognized the need to change things up around the middle of the season when he started tweaking with different versions of his slider, but it just hasn't translated to his previous elite production – even when he had a 1.99 ERA in July, it came with just 27 strikeouts in 31.2 innings of work. Like Burnes, I still think Castillo is a must-start pitcher, but the stretches of dominance aren't nearly as consistent as they used to be – though in Castilo's case, it's because he has taken a step backward as both a strikeout pitcher and in terms of quality of contact allowed. I'm interested to see how the Mariners approach this regression this offseason because they're a pretty data-heavy club on the pitching side – but they could also look to trade Castillo if they think the bottom might be about to fall out for the soon-to-be 32-year-old. 
Justin Steele, Cubs vs. TOR: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – It's a disappointing showing, but forces of nature were at play here, as a rain delay ultimately forced Steele out of the game. No worries. 
Zac Gallen , Diamondbacks @TB: 5 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – That's now three straight starts of four or fewer strikeouts for Gallen, and seven out of 10 total since his return from the IL in late June. By outside appearances, Gallen seems fine physically – his velocity is where it usually is and his pitch mix hasn't changed much – but for whatever reason, his fastball especially just hasn't been as effective, generating a whiff rate below 12% since his return. Last season, by comparison, it was at 19.2%. The rest of his arsenal has suffered some drops in effectiveness as well, though not to that same degree, and until he figures out how to get that pitch back, it's hard to expect Gallen to be the same guy he was. I'm not sure I'm ready to bench him outright, let alone drop him, but if I had a two-start pitcher I felt confident in this week, I'd be willing to start them ahead of Gallen. That includes the likes of Tyler Anderson, Yusei Kikuchi, Kyle Harrison, and possibly even Martin Perez and DJ Herz, among Scott White's two-start pitcher options
Carlos Rodon , Yankees @DET: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – The Rodon-coaster has been a frustrating ride this season, and I think it's fine to just take him at face value here – he's a good, but not elite strikeout pitcher, who doesn't limit walks or hard contact consistently enough to really be a difference maker anymore. There will be times when he locks in and looks like the guy he used to be for stretches, but this is another situation where we're holding out hope for who Rodon used to be when we probably just need to accept that he's a fringe starter, prone to stretches of brilliance and total frustration in almost equal measure. 
Nick Lodolo, Reds vs. KC: 2.1 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – Here's Lodolo's strikeout rate by month this season: 33%, 22.4%, 20.8%, 22.7%, 20.9%. I want to keep the faith, but I'm just not sure there's much evidence for it; he now has a 5.30 ERA and 4.50 FIP since May 1. At this point, I don't think Lodolo needs to be viewed as a must-roster pitcher, unfortunately. 
Spencer Arrighetti, Astros vs. CHW: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K –  Just when it seemed like Arrighetti had turned a corner – 25 strikeouts in his previous two starts combined! – he gives us this result against this matchup? To borrow a phrase from my friend Nick Pollack over at PitcherList.com: "How am I supposed to butter my bread with this???" Frustrating as this is, it does prove one thing: Arrighetti just isn't that guy yet. The upside is obvious, and it's still worth chasing against the right matchups. But he's certainly not ready to be a must-start pitcher yet. 
Gavin Williams, Guardians @MIL: 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – We've been looking for reasons to be optimistic about Williams, but I'm at the point where I'm totally willing to drop him. His slider remains largely nonexistent (he threw it five times Friday), and he just hasn't found a way to succeed consistently without it. I'm not giving up on any pitcher who throws as hard as Williams in the long run, but he just hasn't given us any reason to believe he's going to put it together this season. 
Bobby Miller, Dodgers @STL: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – Ditto for Miller. I still have plenty of long-term hope for him, and he might even end up a priority target for me in 2025 drafts if his struggles this season allow him to fall too far. But he was struggling in the minors and showed it wasn't just because he was working through stuff. But despite the fact that Miller still lights up the scoreboard and looks like he should be effective, he just hasn't shown anything since his first start of the season. He's a pretty easy drop at this point. 
Max Meyer, Marlins @NYM: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – One of the reasons I wanted to see the Marlins call Meyer up earlier in the summer was precisely because he was struggling so much at Triple-A. I wanted to see if that was because, as the Marlins stated, he was working on expanding his arsenal, or as I suspected, it was because his stuff just hadn't recovered post-Tommy John surgery. I wanted to get a decent sample size at the major-league level one way or the other before 2025, and well … yeah, he's not that guy right now. Maybe a fully healthy offseason can help him expand his arsenal or refine his current offerings, but right now, he's got a pretty good slider and nothing else at all. Until and unless that changes, Meyer can be safely ignored in pretty much all Fantasy formats. 
Hitting
Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks – Tip of the cap to Aram Leighton of Just Baseball Media for this pull : In his first 84 games, Corbin Carroll was popping up on 27% of his batted balls on four-seamers in the top half of the strike zone; in 32 games since he's down to 17%. He's hitting more balls hard and pulling significantly more of them (44% vs. 14% in the first 84 games) on those high fastballs, which I think helps explain much of the improvement we've seen from Carroll, who went 3 for 11 with two homers this weekend and now has 10 in those 32 games. It sure looks like he's all the way back. I hope you didn't drop him. 
James Wood, OF, Nationals – I've written a few times lately about how impressive it is that Wood has been as good as he has been while being so far from optimized as a hitter. To that point, he hit his very first pulled fly ball on Sunday, and it went 417 feet for his fifth homer in 42 games. He's on a near-20-homer, 25-steal pace despite hitting way too many ground balls. If this is the start of him figuring it out, we could be talking about Wood as a top-25 pick next season. 
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Rays  – Lowe homered two more times this weekend, and he now has 15 in 56 games since the start of June, with an OPS over .900. Injuries and some platoon issues have muted Lowe's upside a bit, but when he's on the field, he remains a truly impactful hitter at a middle infield spot, and can be viewed as a top-12 second baseman right now. 
Gavin Lux, 2B, Dodgers – I haven't written about Lux much this season, but he's been truly terrific since the All-Star break, hitting .367 with a 1.075 OPS in his past 28 games. That includes his fifth homer in that span in a 2-for-4 game Friday, and then he followed that up with three more hits Sunday. Lux's xwOBA is over .350 in both July and August, and he's seen an increase in his bat speed in that time, so it might not just be a fluke. 
News and notes
Freddie Freeman exited Saturday's game due to a jammed finger. X-rays came back negative, but he was out of the lineup Sunday and is slated to undergo a CT scan on Monday to determine the extent of the injury. He will likely miss at least a few more days – and let's just hope it's not much longer. 
Tyler Glasnow was placed on the IL with right elbow tendinitis. An MRI revealed no structural damage, and Glasnow made his case not to go on the IL but the Dodgers wanted to play it safe. Given his history, that makes sense, but we just don't have a lot of time for any player to come back from an injury. Let's hope it's just a two-week absence like when Glasnow went on the IL back in July. 
Some good news for the Dodgers is that they're expecting Tommy Edman and Max Muncy back on Monday. Edman is 55% rostered, hasn't played all season, and could take some time to shake off the rust, but he has upside as a triple-eligible player with speed. 
Austin Riley left Sunday after getting hit by a pitch in his right hand. He's set to undergo further evaluation after initial X-rays and testing were inconclusive. "Inconclusive" isn't necessarily a bad word, but it's not what we want to hear. 
Hunter Greene went on the IL due to right elbow soreness. He's awaiting the results of an MRI, and at this point, I don't think you can expect him back this season. Anything you get is a bonus, which is extremely unfortunate as Greene was in the middle of an absolute monster breakout. 
Jose Soriano went on the IL due to right arm fatigue. 
Zack Littell with right shoulder fatigue. 
After his start on Sunday night baseball, it was reported that Tarik Skubal will get extra rest in between starts for the final six weeks of the regular season. He's already up to 155.1 IP on the season and he threw just 95 total innings last year. I wouldn't expect a total shutdown, barring an injury, but I wouldn't be surprised if Skubal got an extra day or two of rest here and there. It shouldn't impact his value too much, but there's some risk of a shutdown in the final weeks, perhaps. 
Fernando Tatis has been participating in some baseball activities, including long toss, as he continues to rehab that stress reaction in his right femur. Even with that, he remains without a definitive timeline to return.
Pete Fairbanks is expected to land on the IL with a lat strain. Pete Fairbanks is expected to land on the IL with a lat strain. Given that it's the Rays, I would bet they don't land on a single closer, but Manuel Rodriguez has worked the eighth inning more often than not since Jason Adam was traded, so if you want to speculate, he seems like the guy to target. 
Ranger Suarez is likely to return next weekend to start against the Royals. I wouldn't take the chance on starting him unless I was truly desperate, given the expected matchup. 
Ketel Marte returned to the lineup Saturday after missing three games with a low-grade ankle sprain. He was then out of the lineup Sunday but appeared as a pinch-hitter, only to aggravate the injury. I would try to find another option to start, given the recurring nature of this injury. 
Jazz Chisholm will rest and rehab his left UCL injury following consultations with multiple doctors. He was spotted taking grounders at third base prior to Sunday's game and is expected to resume swinging a bat soon. There is no timetable for his return at this point. 
Alex Bregman missed all three games this weekend due to right elbow inflammation. He said he slept on it wrong and hopes to miss only a few days, so hopefully, he'll be back this week. Starting him is risky, but he's been hot, so it could pay off. Shay Whitcomb was called up, and there's an intriguing power/speed combination there, but it's just not clear if he's going to get enough reps to really matter for Fantasy. 
Ha-seong Kim exited Sunday with a jammed right shoulder.
Bo Bichette has resumed baseball activities. He'll ramp up at the Blue Jays' spring training complex before he starts a rehab assignment.
Yandy Diaz left Sunday after getting hit by a pitch on his left forearm.
X-rays and an MRI both came back clean.
Jasson Dominguez was added to the Yankees roster as the 27th player for their game in Williamsport. Each team gets an additional player for this game… and then he was returned to Triple-A after the game. I would guess he'll be back sometime in early September when the Yankees can guarantee he'll still be eligible for Rookie of the Year in 2025 (and the draft pick compensation that would come to the team if he did win, naturally). 
A second opinion on Joe Ryan's shoulder showed a Grade 2 teres major strain, which confirmed the original diagnosis. It seems unlikely that Ryan will pitch again in the regular season but that hasn't been ruled out.
Welcome back to Triston Casas, who returned on Friday and started all three games, even Saturday against a lefty. He had back-to-back multi-hit games with five hits total in three games. He's still available in 17% of CBS Fantasy leagues, so make sure you aren't in one of them because he could be a must-start option the rest of the way. 
Ronel Blanco has been cleared to start Tuesday against the Red Sox. He reported finger soreness after his previous start.
Reynaldo Lopez will return to start Tuesday against the Phillies. He's been out since July 28 with right forearm inflammation. I wouldn't want to start him in his first game back, and I'm guessing the Braves will be very cautious with him the rest of the way. 
Jacob deGrom threw another live batting practice Saturday and hopes to begin a rehab assignment later this week. He's 69% rostered. 
Justin Verlander is slated to return Wednesday against the Red Sox. He threw 57 pitches over four innings in his latest rehab start on Thursday, and I'd like to see him prove worth starting before I get him back in the lineup. 
Max Scherzer threw another bullpen Sunday and is scheduled to pitch again Wednesday. 
Matt McLain has been cleared to resume baseball work. His recovery from offseason surgery on his left shoulder was derailed in early August when he sustained a stress reaction in his rib cage, and it's not clear if he'll have enough time to get back to MLB games. 
Jared Jones will make at least one more rehab start before returning from the IL.
Jorge Soler has missed three straight with that mild left hamstring strain.
Isaac Paredes was scratched Sunday due to right shoulder discomfort.
The Tigers recalled Spencer Torkelson on Saturday.
Nolan Jones was reinstated from the IL Sunday. He's been out since before the All-Star break due to a lower back strain. The Rockies don't play at home this week, but I'm interested in adding him just to see if he can get hot like he did down the stretch last season. 
The Rockies released Elias Diaz on Friday. Jacob Stallings started two of three games this weekend and could be a streamer when the Rockies are at home.
The Angels promoted Niko Kavadas on Friday, who came over from the Red Sox in the Luis Garcia trade. He's got some pop and should play every day, so he's an interesting AL-only target. 
 
 
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