| | | | Monday, September 23, 2024 | | We've reached the final week of the season, and I want to wish those of you who still have something to play for the best of luck this week. As usual, we've got a Week 27 preview for you in today's newsletter, along with my recap of the biggest performances and noteworthy news items from around baseball this weekend. | | Me, I've still got two Roto leagues with at least a chance at the No. 1 spot, and I'm fighting for a top-three finish in a few others, which isn't so bad – though I somehow managed to lose ground in one league last week despite having Shohei Ohtani in my lineup. I don't know how I managed that, but it was disheartening to watch him go 16 for 32 with six homers, 17 RBI, 11 runs, and seven steals in a week, only for my team's standing to drop. | | Whether you've got something to play for still or are just looking ahead to 2025, I'll still be right here in your inbox all week, doing everything I can to help you get to a championship, whether it's at the end of this week or next season. Let's get to it. | | Week 27 Preview | | | | Week 27 Waiver Targets | | In addition to some targets to consider for Week 27, I also included some stash options for those of you in Dynasty or Keeper leagues to look out for in case you want to keep an eye on 2025. Here's who to add if you need more immediate help, though: | C: Hunter Goodman, Rockies (14%)
1B: Andrew Vaughn, White Sox (41%)
2B: Brendan Rodgers, Rockies (36%)
3B: Paul DeJong, Royals (24%)
SS: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (20%)
OF: Parker Meadows, Tigers (35%), Michael Toglia, Rockies (50%), Victor Robles, Mariners (38%)
SP: Cody Bradford, Rangers (59%), Tobias Myers, Brewers (71%), Zack Littell, Rays (46%)
RP: Luke Weaver, Yankees (30%) | | For those stash targets, plus my thoughts on each of these players and more, head here. | | | | Week 27 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 27: | 1. Cardinals @COL3, @SF3
2. Phillies CHC3, @WAS3
3. Blue Jays BOS3, MIA3
4. Rockies STL3, LAD3
5. Twins MIA3, BAL3 | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 27: | 1. Nationals KC3, PHI3
2. Orioles @NYY3, @MIN3
3. Athletics TEX3, @SEA3
4. Yankees BAL3, PIT3
5. Astros SEA3, @CLE3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 27: | 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs (64%) @PHI3, CIN3
2. Tommy Edman, OF, Dodgers (77%) SD3, @COL3
3. Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers (79%) TB3, CHW3
4. Parker Meadows, OF, Tigers (35%) TB3, CHW3
5. Jorge Soler, OF, Braves (65%) NYM3, KC3 | | Week 27 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." | | Top sleeper pitches for Week 27: | 1. Cody Bradford, Rangers (59%) at OAK
2. Tobias Myers, Brewers (71%) at PIT, vs. NYM
3. Zack Littell, Rays (46%) at DET
4. Kutter Crawford, Red Sox (79%) vs. TB
5. JP Sears, Athletics (56%) at SEA | | | | Weekend Standouts | | Good pitching | | Paul Skenes, Pirates @CIN: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Skenes threw just 73 pitches in this one, as the Pirates took the opportunity to give him a quick hook while he was cruising. What we saw in this one was a glimpse of what a somehow even more dominant version of Skenes could look like before the early exit, however, as he leaned heavily on his changeup and sprinkler for 13 of his 16 whiffs, and that changeup has very quickly become a real weapon for him. He went from barely throwing it to having it become his primary non-fastball so far in September, leading to a massive 63% whiff rate this month. As good as Skenes has been, what's scary about him is that he's clearly still evolving, but what's even more exciting is this: Every new version of him looks just as dominant as the one before. I won't rank him as my SP1 for 2025, but someone will, and I won't really be able to argue it. | | Corbin Burnes, Orioles vs. DET: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – Much has been made of the regression of Burnes' cutter , and even in this one, it wasn't quite dominant – he generated five whiffs on 20 swings, but also allowed nine balls in play with a 94.4 mph average exit velocity. He's going to be one of the interesting free agents to hit the market this offseason, and if he struggles to find the long-term deal he's looking for, that might be a sign that MLB teams are just as skeptical about him as we are. He's probably still a top-12 SP for 2025 – he has a 2.95 ERA and will finish with around 180 strikeouts, after all – but he isn't the true ace he once was unless he rediscovers that formerly elite cutter. | | | | Hunter Greene, Reds vs. PIT: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Beyond just the fact that we missed out on a handful of starts from a very good pitcher, the worst thing about Greene's elbow injury is that it robbed us of much-needed evidence to either support or nullify Greene's breakout season. The good news is, while his velocity was down a tad in this one, he made it through the start unscathed and garnered 11 whiffs across his fastball and slider, so he didn't seem worse for wear. I'd lean against starting Greene this week since he only threw 45 pitches in this one, but I will say I'm overall pretty optimistic about the growth he has shown this season. | | Gerrit Cole , Yankees @OAK: 9 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – It wasn't quite a vintage performance from Cole, but he was, obviously, quite good in a string of quite good starts. Since July 12, Cole has a 2.92 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 71 innings over 12 starts, and that's including a couple of pretty ugly starts (seven runs in 4.1 innings in his last one before this). Cole hasn't been quite the vintage version of himself all season, but he did have the feel for his slider in this one, and that's always been the key for him. I don't think we'll be drafting Cole as a top-12 SP next season, but if he comes out in Spring Training with his vintage slider, he should move up very quickly. | | Joe Musgrove, Padres vs. CHW: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Musgrove has been pretty excellent since coming back from the IL, putting up a 2.05 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 44 innings of work after this one. Remember, when he was coming back from his elbow injury, there was talk that he might need to change his mechanics to make it through the season; instead, he has thrown quality starts in five of his past six outings now. He's a fringe starting option for Week 27 with a matchup on the way against the Dodgers, and it's fair to have some questions about a 32-year-old Musgrove for 2025, given his elbow injury, but that could also make him a very solid bargain as a mid-rotation option. | | Yu Darvish, Padres vs. CHW: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – I don't quite know what to make of Darvish for 2025. My gut says to just fade the 38-year-old who hasn't thrown more than 137 innings since 2022 because things probably aren't going to get any better for him from here. But he's been very solid when healthy this season, including a 3.15 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 20 innings over four starts since coming back. I won't start him against the Diamondbacks this week, but if he falls far enough in drafts where he doesn't have to be much more than a No. 5 SP, I think he could be a pretty good pick. | | Jacob deGrom, Rangers vs. SEA: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – I think I'm going to have some more extended thoughts about deGrom later this week, but here's where I'm at right now: If you told me you weren't ranking deGrom in the top-50 at SP for 2025, I wouldn't argue; if you told me you were ranking him top-20, I also wouldn't argue. He's thrown 6.2 innings across his two starts so far, with nine strikeouts and only one walk and one run allowed, more or less looking like himself. His velocity has been down a bit, but deGrom was throwing so hard before his most recent Tommy John surgery that I wonder if this isn't at least partially intentional to try to stay healthy. Either way, I have no trouble believing deGrom can remain effective while only sitting 96-97. Whether he can stay healthy is a much bigger question, obviously. | | Spencer Arrighetti, Astros vs. LAA: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – There have been some notable bumps in the road, but on the whole, Arrighetti continues to close out the season strong. After this start, he has a 2.84 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 50 innings of work since the start of August and will look to keep it up in his final scheduled start against the Guardians this week – assuming he's okay after dealing with some calf cramping toward the end of this start. Keep an eye on that one just in case the Astros opt to skip that start with the division title all but locked up. | | Ronel Blanco, Astros vs. LAA: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Blanco looked like one of the most obvious sell-high candidates in years this summer, and for a few months, that looked like strong advice. But he has gotten back on track in a big way in September, allowing just two runs over 19 innings across four starts. He's still walked nine in that stretch, and on the whole feels like a pretty poor bet to replicate his success in 2025, as his 4.00 xERA indicates. But Blanco wasn't even supposed to be here, so who is to say he can't keep it going? | | Nick Martinez , Reds vs. PIT: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Martinez has been one of the best stories in baseball this season, and his impending free agency will be fascinating. He's never been a successful full-time starter in the majors, but he's been very effective overall over the past three seasons, running a 3.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, mostly as a swing-man. And he's closing this season well, with 27 strikeouts to just four walks while posting a 0.73 ERA over 24.2 innings in four September starts. He has a decent matchup on the way against the Cubs this week, and I think he's worth using for that one – and I hope he gets a chance to be a full-time starter somewhere this offseason. He would arguably be the No. 1 SPaRP in Fantasy for 2025 if that happened. | | Richard Fitts, Red Sox vs. MIN: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – That's now 15.2 straight innings without an earned run allowed to open Fitts' career, and that's great. You shouldn't be surprised to learn that I just don't buy it, what with the 7:5 K:BB ratio. Fitts is keeping the ball on the ground and mostly avoiding hard contact and walks, and that's an approach that can certainly work in short spurts. But We're talking about a guy who had a 4.17 ERA in Triple-A and doesn't seem to have real strikeout stuff, so I just don't see a real path to sustainable Fantasy success. | | Bad Pitching | | Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers vs. COL: 3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Yamamoto will get a chance to make up for this when he faces the Rockies again this week to close the season, but there's no way you can start him at Coors Field after this outing, right? I suspect he might be fine – and I certainly don't have any performance concerns in the long run as long as he can stay healthy – but I can't really justify telling you to start him. I won't have that one on my conscience. | | Mitch Keller , Pirates @CIN: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 1 K – The problem with Keller isn't that he's bad. On the whole, he's usually very good, in fact. The problem is, when he's bad, he tends to be extremely bad. He has two separate starts over the past two months with eight earned runs allowed and another one with seven earned runs allowed; take those three starts out of his record, and he has a 2.72 ERA since the All-Star break. Of course, if those kinds of starts keep happening, you can't really write them off as a fluke. This all probably means that Keller is a much better option in H2H points leagues, where his truly abysmal starts don't follow you around all season long; they stay with every matchup he helps wreck. | | Jared Jones , Pirates @CIN: 5 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – I really don't know what to do with Jones. He showed legitimate ace upside early in the season but just couldn't sustain the control gains and stopped getting elite whiff numbers, and the whole profile kind of fell apart. There was an injury along the way that surely didn't make it easier to get back on track, and if you want to be an optimist, you can fairly easily blame it on the injury. If you're right, you could absolutely get a top-25 season from Jones in 2025. I won't rank him that way, but I'll probably make sure I draft him for at least a few teams because you need to chase (and hit on) upside in the middle rounds to have a good pitching staff, and I imagine Jones is going to be one of the more interesting choices if he falls far enough. | | Hitters | | Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners – Rodriguez is doing everything he can to help the Mariners make the playoffs down the stretch, going 7 for 11 with three homers across Friday and Saturday's games. He's hitting .363 with eight homers, five steals, and an OPS over 1.000 over his past 23 games, helping put concerns about his poor player prior to rest. I don't think Rodriguez should be a candidate for the No. 1 pick in 2025, but I don't think you should be surprised if he goes in the first round despite the frustrating season. | | Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros – That shin injury that turned into a multi-month absence was frustrating, but don't let it scare you away from Tucker in 2025. He's been excellent, hitting .286 with 22 homers and 11 steals, and an OPS north of 1.000 over 74 games on the season as a whole after putting together consecutive four-hit games Friday and Saturday. I think by the time we get to the spring, we'll have forgotten about the frustration that Tucker's extended absence caused because he should be a first-rounder in 2025. | | Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers – Carpenter has been a huge part of the Tigers' unlikely playoff chase, hitting .301 with nine homers and 23 RBI in 32 games since returning from the IL. There have been some concerns about playing time, especially with regards to Carpenter's ability to hit lefties, and with a .408 OPS and 10 strikeouts in 32 plate appearances against them this season, I think it's fair to say he hasn't done enough to answer them. That keeps his ceiling lower than it might otherwise be for counting stats, but I think Carpenter has done enough to at least justify being drafted next season, and if he does get a chance to play against lefties more regularly, there could be real upside if he just holds his own, given how good he is against righties. | | Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals – Walker still has his flaws. He still strikes out too much, with a 31% strikeout rate since coming back from Triple-A. And he's still hitting the ball on the ground too often to truly maximize his power. But man, when he does the right things – when he makes contact and hits the ball in the air especially – good things tend to happen. He has five homers since his return, and I'm going to keep chasing the upside in 2025, when he'll be just 23 years old, mind you. It'll likely only cost a late-round pick at this point, and I think that's a price worth paying for a fourth or fifth outfielder with upside. | | Luisangel Acuña, SS, Mets – If Lindor comes back this week, I'm just not sure where Acuña is going to play, but the fact that he's made that an issue so quickly speaks to how well Acuña has played since making his debut. He hit his third homer Saturday and added a double in that game, giving him three longballs and a pair of doubles in just nine games in his MLB career. Acuña hasn't struck out more than once in a game and has hit 63.6% of his balls at least 95 mph, with an average exit velocity of 93.1 on 22 balls. He barely hit for power in Triple-A, but the Statcast readings suggest there might be at least average pop here, with good contact skills and plenty of athleticism. It's a small sample, but Acuña may be playing his way into consideration for 2025 after his prospect shine took a big hit this season. As a late-round sleeper in deeper categories leagues, he might be worth a pick at this point. | | Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Rays – Aranda homered in all three games this weekend and is now hitting .274/.333/.581 since returning to the Rays on Aug. 30. He has started 16 of 23 games, and it all sounds very similar to Brandon Lowe , who also demolishes righties and often sits against lefties. If the Rays decide that Lowe's $10.5 million option for 2025 is too pricey – a likely outcome, let's be honest – Aranda could step into his role nicely. There is probably a ceiling on how good he can be for Fantasy if he doesn't play against lefties, and the Rays are the kind of organization that is totally willing to put even talented young players in platoons if they think it helps maximize their chances of winning games, so there might not be much of a path forward for Aranda as an everyday player. But his recent run is backed up by solid Statcast data and a strong minor-league track record, so his offseason is very much worth watching to see if he could have a Michael Busch-esque delayed breakout. Like Busch, it might just take getting traded to unlock it. | | News and notes | | The biggest news of the weekend came from the Nationals, as they optioned CJ Abrams to the minors. The team said it was not related to his performance, and some reports came out this weekend indicating that Abrams was out late into the morning prior to a day game, which could have led to the punishment. He'll report to the team's spring facility once the Triple-A season is done, and it does raise some questions about his long-term place in the organization. Abrams has struggled in the second half (and, frankly, all season long with his defense), but I still think there is a very good player in here, and one I'm willing to bet on in 2025, even amid all this. | | Juan Soto was scratched from the lineup Friday due to knee soreness but was back in the lineup Saturday and Sunday. | | Yordan Alvarez left Sunday with a right knee contusion and will undergo imaging. Given his history of knee troubles and with the Astros having all but clinched the AL West title, I wouldn't be surprised if he got a few days off this week, making him a tough player to trust for Fantasy, even if the injury is relatively minors. | | Francisco Lindor went through a full series of baseball activities Saturday, but he is not expected to play until Tuesday against the Braves. This is a huge series for the Mets playoff hopes, so if Lindor can play, I'd bet he will. But it's a tough spot for your lineups, as you might have to decide whether to play Lindor or not before we actually know if he's in the lineup or not. In the one league where I have him, I am starting Lindor ahead of Colt Keith in a middle infield spot. | | Rafael Devers' season is over, as he was placed on the IL with left shoulder inflammation. It's an injury that has bothered him for much of the season and helps explain why his production cratered in the second half. Still, a .272 average and 28 homers in 138 games is a pretty good season for a guy who wasn't 100% healthy at basically any point. He won't have off-season surgery and will hopefully come into spring training next season 100% healthy, but if you want to downgrade him a few spots out of the second round, I don't think it's the worst idea. | | Tyler Glasnow doesn't expect to need surgery on his sprained right elbow, but he's been shut down from throwing for the foreseeable future. On the one hand, he ended up being a pretty solid pick as a top-12 pitcher in drafts this season, finishing with a 3.49 ERA, 168 strikeouts, and nine wins in 22 starts. On the other hand, his 134 innings are a career-high in the majors, and if this injury had happened in, say, July, we'd be singing a very different tune about Glasnow's season. He hasn't shown any ability to get through a full season healthy, and I don't think it's really realistic, even when projecting an upside scenario at this point. Rank him in the top 24 and consider your own personal level of risk tolerance before deciding whether to draft him in 2025. | | Sonny Gray was placed on the IL with right forearm flexor tendinitis, ending his season with a 3.84 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 203 K over 166.1 innings. Assuming he's fine for the start of Spring Training, it seems reasonable to view Gray as a solid No. 3 starter for Fantasy despite this unfortunate ending to his season. | | Kenley Jansen is likely to be placed on the IL Monday due to a right shoulder injury. It sounds like Chris Martin and/or Justin Slaten will handle closing duties over the final week, but I don't think either is a great bet for more than a save or two. | | Ian Happ was scratched from the lineup Sunday due to lower back tightness. | | Max Muncy was scratched Sunday with side soreness. | | Kevin Gausman said Friday that his back is feeling better and that he expects to make his next start this weekend against the Rangers. He's an okay starting option there. | | The Orioles activated Jordan Westburg on Sunday. He was in the lineup, batting second against the lefty Tyler Holton, and is worth getting back in your lineup, preferably as a CI. | | Max Scherzer was scratched Saturday with a left hamstring strain and is done for this season. He finishes with just nine starts: 3.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 43.1 innings. Scherzer said he intends to pitch in 2025, but the 40-year-old struggled to bounce back from starts on multiple occasions and just didn't look like a difference-maker anymore. He might be decent rotation depth for some contender, but I don't think he'll have much more than late-round Fantasy appeal as a very cheap sleeper. | | Brenton Doyle has missed three straight with left knee soreness, making him an awfully tough call for a week when the Rockies play all of their games at Coors. | | Gabriel Moreno left Sunday with renewed left adductor tightness. He'll have an MRI on Monday. Manager Torey Lovullo downplayed the injury and was hopeful Moreno would be available off the bench Monday. | | Josh Jung was shut down for a couple days with discomfort in his right wrist, close to where he had surgery. That's ominous, and I'm benching him where I can. | | Kodai Senga will not return during the regular season after he felt tightness in his triceps Saturday during a rehab start. He'll be a tough player to rank for 2025 after showing plenty of upside in 2023, only to have his entire season wrecked by injuries. I'm thinking somewhere in the SP50 range of the rankings makes sense. | | Coby Mayo was optioned back to Triple-A. He has hit just .098 with a 48% K rate in 17 games but also hasn't had a real opportunity to prove himself every day, so I'll buy him as a sleeper for 2025 if he has somewhere to play. | | Tyler Kinley was placed on the IL due to right elbow inflammation. | | | | | | | | NWSL | | 24/7 Sports News | Start your week right with a West Coast matchup between Angel City and the Portland Thorns TONIGHT at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network.
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