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Tuesday, September 17, 2024 |
If you were reading the FFT Newsletter in August, you know how much fun Carson Steele was this preseason. Only two weeks in, the rookie UDFA is set to play a significant role for the reigning champs! |
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Week 3 Waiver Wire Targets: |
Quarterback |
Geno Smith - I absolutely love what new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has brought over from his days with the Washington Huskies. This Seahawks offense has been designed to threaten every blade of grass and has the receivers to do it. |
And Geno is playing great! In Week 2, TruMedia's charting data gave Geno Smith a 0% off-target rate. That was the first time since the 2021 season that a QB attempted 40+ passes with an average depth of target above 8 yards and not a single off-target throw. |
Gardner Minshew - He's second in passing yards through two weeks. Brock Bowers is an absolute stud, we'll get to him later. Minshew is playing well and keeping his two top targets fed, and next up is an easy matchup against the Carolina Panthers. |
Andy Dalton - In deeper superflex leagues, Dalton may be the savior for Fantasy managers who drafted Bryce Young, Jordan Love, or Tua Tagovailoa. |
Running Back |
Carson Steele - If looking for the big win from Kansas City's backfield, rookie UDFA Carson Steele is who you want. He's a beast, and the Chiefs were giving him short-yardage opportunities even when Isiah Pacheco was healthy. If he can handle the workload and hold onto the ball, Steele could see 15+ touches in Week 3. |
Samaje Perine - If looking for the safest bet from KC's backfield, Perine projects as a potentially viable weekly PPR flex. |
Cam Akers - You might have noticed that Joe Mixon looked much more natural and comfortable as a runner in Houston's under-center offense and zone-blocking scheme than he did running out of the shotgun with the Bengals. Like Mixon, Cam Akers is a natural fit for this type of rushing scheme. He looked great this preseason and may end up being a fine flex play if Mixon misses time. |
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Wide Receiver |
Quentin Johnston - Data.FantasyPoints.com. It's a website that tracks advanced statistics, like what percentage of a team's targets were the first-read for a QB as he dropped back to pass and read the opposing defense. Currently, QJ has the third-highest rate in the league. The Chargers are making it a priority to get the ball to the 2023 first-round pick. In Week 2, Johnston led the Chargers in routes run, targets, and receiving. |
Josh Downs - Indy's offense stalled out in Week 2, |
Tyler Johnson - He's the one being used in pre-snap motion on short targets like Cooper Kupp was. With the offensive line banged-up, getting the ball out of Stafford's hands quickly will be a priority. |
Tight End |
Hunter Henry - 32% target share, that's higher than any TE in the NFL. 109 of 149 Patriots passing yards in Week 2 went to Hunter Henry. Next two matchups are against zone-heavy defenses that funnel targets to the middle area of the field. |
Tucker Kraft - He has played 86% of the snaps for Green Bay. Kraft has run 40 routes, compared to just 16 for teammate Luke Musgrave. He's a great stash that could be a top-12 Fantasy TE when Jordan Love is back. |
Noah Fant - The role is there, I love the offense, and the Seahawks have potential shootouts in Week 3 and 4. |
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Another reminder: each Friday, we'll go 'In The Lab' in this space: |
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If you have want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
Week 3 Rankings |
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Quarterback |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Josh Allen QB2 - Lamar Jackson QB3 - Jalen Hurts QB4 - Kyler Murray |
Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB5 - Jayden Daniels QB9 - Anthony Richardson QB15 - Justin Fields |
Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
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There's definitely plenty of touchdown upside for Burrow and the Bengals in Week 3. |
QB6 - Joe Burrow QB7 - C.J. Stroud QB8 - Patrick Mahomes QB10 - Brock Purdy QB11 - Jared Goff QB12 - Baker Mayfield QB13 - Dak Prescott QB14 - Derek Carr QB16 - Geno Smith |
Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB17 - Deshaun Watson QB18 - Garnder Minshew QB19 - Caleb Williams QB20 - Sam Darnold QB21 - Trevor Lawrence QB22 - Kirk Cousins QB23 - Aaron Rodgers QB24 - Matthew Stafford QB25 - Justin Herbert QB26 - Daniel Jones QB27 - Malik Willis QB28 - Will Levis QB29 - Andy Dalton QB30 - Bo Nix QB31 - Skylar Thompson QB32 - Jacoby Brissett |
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Running Backs |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Bijan Robinson RB2 - Breece Hall RB3 - Jordan Mason RB4 - De'Von Achane RB5 - Alvin Kamara RB6 - Jahmyr Gibbs RB7 - Saquon Barkley RB8 - James Conner RB11 - James Cook RB12 - Zach Charbonnet RB14 - David Montgomery RB15 - Zack Moss |
Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB9 - Jonathan Taylor RB10 - Derrick Henry RB13 - Josh Jacobs RB16 - Kyren Williams RB18 - Travis Etienne (he'll move down if Tank Bigsby plays) RB19 - Rhamondre Stevenson RB20 - Tony Pollard RB22 - Brian Robinson Jr. (Commanders are massive road dogs) |
Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB21 - J.K. Dobbins (matchup + no real change in role from Week 1 to Week 2 + Chargers only implied for 17.5 points) RB26 - Aaron Jones (brutal matchup + splitting carries) RB27 - D'Andre Swift (it's been so rough) RB28 - Devin Singletary (Daniel Jones + Browns D) RB29 - Javonte Williams (Bo Nix + slow start) RB30 - Chuba Hubbard (Maxx Crosby + slow start) RB33 - Jerome Ford (Dexter Lawrence + splitting carries) |
Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously |
RB23 - Carson Steele RB24 - Zamir White RB31 - Jaylen Warren RB32 - Bucky Irving |
Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB25 - Najee Harris (feels bad to start Najee Harris, doesn't it! Surely, he'll score a TD at some point) RB34 - Austin Ekeler RB35 - Samaje Perine RB36 - Ezekiel Elliott RB37 - Ty Chandler RB38 - Justice Hill RB39 - Cam Akers RB40 - Tyjae Spears |
Wide Receivers |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb WR2 - Amon-Ra St. Brown WR3 - Justin Jefferson WR4 - Ja'Marr Chase WR5 - Nico Collins WR6 - Rashee Rice WR8 - Davante Adams WR13 - Chris Godwin WR15 - DeVonta Smith |
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Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR7 - Brandon Aiyuk WR9 - Garrett Wilson WR10 - Marvin Harrison Jr. WR11 - Tyreek Hill WR12 - Chris Olave WR14 - Mike Evans WR16 - DJ Moore WR18 - DK Metcalf WR19 - George Pickens WR20 - Zay Flowers WR21 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR22 - Jameson Williams WR23 - Stefon Diggs WR24 - Rashid Shaheed |
Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR17 - Malik Nabers (the Giants are only implied for 16 points -- for reference, DJ Moore's Bears implied total is 20 points -- and we could see a total implosion from Daniel Jones against this Browns defense) WR25 - Diontae Johnson (I honestly do expect Carolina's offensive environment to be fine with Dalton at QB) WR26 - Terry McLaurin WR27 - Drake London |
Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR28 - Michael Pittman WR35 - Khalil Shakir WR39 - Keenan Allen WR40 - Demarcus Robinson WR46 - Jakobi Meyers WR48 - Andrei Iosivas WR49 - Jauan Jennings |
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Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR29 - Tank Dell WR30 - Amari Cooper WR31 - Jaylen Waddle WR32 - Courtland Sutton WR33 - Calvin Ridley WR34 - Christian Kirk WR35 - Brian Thomas Jr. (the schematic matchup strongly favors Kirk, and BTJ isn't yet playing a full-time role) WR36 - Xavier Worthy WR38 - Jayden Reed WR41 - Quentin Johnston WR42 - Ladd McConkey |
Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR43 - Brandin Cooks WR44 - Tyler Lockett WR45 - Rome Odunze (playing through injury) WR47 - Jerry Jeudy WR50 - Tyler Johnson |
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Tight Ends |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - George Kittle |
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For context on Kittle's PPR point per route run rate, see below. |
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TE2 - Trey McBride TE3 - Brock Bowers TE4 - Sam LaPorta TE5 - Travis Kelce TE6 - Mark Andrews TE7 - Dalton Kincaid TE8 - Hunter Henry TE9 - Kyle Pitts (here we are free falling again!) |
Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE10 - Dallas Goedert TE11 - Pat Freiermuth TE14 - Isaiah Likely |
Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE12 - Mike Gesicki TE13 - Zach Ertz TE15 - Noah Fant TE16 - Taysom Hill TE17 - Dalton Schultz TE18 - Colby Parkinson TE19 - Greg Dulcich TE20 - Jonnu Smith |
If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send it my way! Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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