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Tuesday, September 17, 2024
If you were reading the FFT Newsletter in August, you know how much fun Carson Steele was this preseason. Only two weeks in, the rookie UDFA is set to play a significant role for the reigning champs!
Week 3 Waiver Wire Targets:
Quarterback
Geno Smith - I absolutely love what new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has brought over from his days with the Washington Huskies. This Seahawks offense has been designed to threaten every blade of grass and has the receivers to do it.
And Geno is playing great! In Week 2, TruMedia's charting data gave Geno Smith a 0% off-target rate. That was the first time since the 2021 season that a QB attempted 40+ passes with an average depth of target above 8 yards and not a single off-target throw.
Gardner Minshew - He's second in passing yards through two weeks. Brock Bowers is an absolute stud, we'll get to him later. Minshew is playing well and keeping his two top targets fed, and next up is an easy matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
Andy Dalton - In deeper superflex leagues, Dalton may be the savior for Fantasy managers who drafted Bryce Young, Jordan Love, or Tua Tagovailoa.
Running Back
Carson Steele - If looking for the big win from Kansas City's backfield, rookie UDFA Carson Steele is who you want. He's a beast, and the Chiefs were giving him short-yardage opportunities even when Isiah Pacheco was healthy. If he can handle the workload and hold onto the ball, Steele could see 15+ touches in Week 3.
Samaje Perine - If looking for the safest bet from KC's backfield, Perine projects as a potentially viable weekly PPR flex.
Cam Akers - You might have noticed that Joe Mixon looked much more natural and comfortable as a runner in Houston's under-center offense and zone-blocking scheme than he did running out of the shotgun with the Bengals. Like Mixon, Cam Akers is a natural fit for this type of rushing scheme. He looked great this preseason and may end up being a fine flex play if Mixon misses time.
Wide Receiver
Quentin Johnston - Data.FantasyPoints.com. It's a website that tracks advanced statistics, like what percentage of a team's targets were the first-read for a QB as he dropped back to pass and read the opposing defense. Currently, QJ has the third-highest rate in the league. The Chargers are making it a priority to get the ball to the 2023 first-round pick. In Week 2, Johnston led the Chargers in routes run, targets, and receiving.
Josh Downs - Indy's offense stalled out in Week 2, 
Tyler Johnson - He's the one being used in pre-snap motion on short targets like Cooper Kupp was. With the offensive line banged-up, getting the ball out of Stafford's hands quickly will be a priority.
Tight End 
Hunter Henry - 32% target share, that's higher than any TE in the NFL. 109 of 149 Patriots passing yards in Week 2 went to Hunter Henry. Next two matchups are against zone-heavy defenses that funnel targets to the middle area of the field.
Tucker Kraft - He has played 86% of the snaps for Green Bay. Kraft has run 40 routes, compared to just 16 for teammate Luke Musgrave. He's a great stash that could be a top-12 Fantasy TE when Jordan Love is back.
Noah Fant - The role is there, I love the offense, and the Seahawks have potential shootouts in Week 3 and 4.
If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here! I also hopped on FFT Dynasty to talk with Heath Cummings on Tuesday, here's the link to that episode. And, if you want to see me dressed up for a network appearance, I did indeed break out the old SportsLine backdrop and put a shirt with buttons on today.
Another reminder: each Friday, we'll go 'In The Lab' in this space:
If you have want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday!
Week 3 Rankings 
Quarterback
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
QB1 - Josh Allen
QB2 - Lamar Jackson
QB3 - Jalen Hurts
QB4 - Kyler Murray
Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk
QB5 - Jayden Daniels
QB9 - Anthony Richardson
QB15 - Justin Fields
Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers
There's definitely plenty of touchdown upside for Burrow and the Bengals in Week 3.
QB6 - Joe Burrow
QB7 - C.J. Stroud
QB8 - Patrick Mahomes
QB10 - Brock Purdy
QB11 - Jared Goff
QB12 - Baker Mayfield
QB13 - Dak Prescott
QB14 - Derek Carr
QB16 - Geno Smith
Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players
QB17 - Deshaun Watson
QB18 - Garnder Minshew
QB19 - Caleb Williams
QB20 - Sam Darnold
QB21 - Trevor Lawrence
QB22 - Kirk Cousins
QB23 - Aaron Rodgers
QB24 - Matthew Stafford
QB25 - Justin Herbert
QB26 - Daniel Jones
QB27 - Malik Willis
QB28 - Will Levis
QB29 - Andy Dalton
QB30 - Bo Nix
QB31 - Skylar Thompson
QB32 - Jacoby Brissett

Running Backs
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
RB1 - Bijan Robinson
RB2 - Breece Hall
RB3 - Jordan Mason
RB4 - De'Von Achane
RB5 - Alvin Kamara
RB6 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB7 - Saquon Barkley
RB8 - James Conner
RB11 - James Cook
RB12 - Zach Charbonnet
RB14 - David Montgomery
RB15 - Zack Moss
Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment?
RB9 - Jonathan Taylor
RB10 - Derrick Henry
RB13 - Josh Jacobs
RB16 - Kyren Williams
RB18 - Travis Etienne (he'll move down if Tank Bigsby plays)
RB19 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB20 - Tony Pollard
RB22 - Brian Robinson Jr. (Commanders are massive road dogs)
Tier 5 -- I have several concerns
RB21 - J.K. Dobbins (matchup + no real change in role from Week 1 to Week 2 + Chargers only implied for 17.5 points)
RB26 - Aaron Jones (brutal matchup + splitting carries)
RB27 - D'Andre Swift (it's been so rough)
RB28 - Devin Singletary (Daniel Jones + Browns D)
RB29 - Javonte Williams (Bo Nix + slow start)
RB30 - Chuba Hubbard (Maxx Crosby + slow start)
RB33 - Jerome Ford (Dexter Lawrence + splitting carries)
Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously
RB23 - Carson Steele
RB24 - Zamir White
RB31 - Jaylen Warren
RB32 - Bucky Irving
Tier 7 -- Desperation plays
RB25 - Najee Harris (feels bad to start Najee Harris, doesn't it! Surely, he'll score a TD at some point)
RB34 - Austin Ekeler
RB35 - Samaje Perine
RB36 - Ezekiel Elliott
RB37 - Ty Chandler
RB38 - Justice Hill
RB39 - Cam Akers
RB40 - Tyjae Spears
Wide Receivers
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb
WR2 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR3 - Justin Jefferson
WR4 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR5 - Nico Collins
WR6 - Rashee Rice
WR8 - Davante Adams
WR13 - Chris Godwin
WR15 - DeVonta Smith
Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score
WR7 - Brandon Aiyuk
WR9 - Garrett Wilson
WR10 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR11 - Tyreek Hill
WR12 - Chris Olave
WR14 - Mike Evans
WR16 - DJ Moore
WR18 - DK Metcalf
WR19 - George Pickens
WR20 - Zay Flowers
WR21 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR22 - Jameson Williams
WR23 - Stefon Diggs
WR24 - Rashid Shaheed
Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2
WR17 - Malik Nabers (the Giants are only implied for 16 points -- for reference, DJ Moore's Bears implied total is 20 points -- and we could see a total implosion from Daniel Jones against this Browns defense)
WR25 - Diontae Johnson (I honestly do expect Carolina's offensive environment to be fine with Dalton at QB)
WR26 - Terry McLaurin
WR27 - Drake London
Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential)
WR28 - Michael Pittman
WR35 - Khalil Shakir
WR39 - Keenan Allen
WR40 - Demarcus Robinson
WR46 - Jakobi Meyers
WR48 - Andrei Iosivas
WR49 - Jauan Jennings
Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun!
WR29 - Tank Dell
WR30 - Amari Cooper
WR31 - Jaylen Waddle
WR32 - Courtland Sutton
WR33 - Calvin Ridley
WR34 - Christian Kirk
WR35 - Brian Thomas Jr. (the schematic matchup strongly favors Kirk, and BTJ isn't yet playing a full-time role)
WR36 - Xavier Worthy
WR38 - Jayden Reed
WR41 - Quentin Johnston
WR42 - Ladd McConkey
Tier 6 -- Desperation plays
WR43 - Brandin Cooks
WR44 - Tyler Lockett
WR45 - Rome Odunze (playing through injury)
WR47 - Jerry Jeudy
WR50 - Tyler Johnson
Tight Ends
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
TE1 - George Kittle
For context on Kittle's PPR point per route run rate, see below.
TE2 - Trey McBride
TE3 - Brock Bowers
TE4 - Sam LaPorta
TE5 - Travis Kelce
TE6 - Mark Andrews
TE7 - Dalton Kincaid
TE8 - Hunter Henry
TE9 - Kyle Pitts (here we are free falling again!)
Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up
TE10 - Dallas Goedert
TE11 - Pat Freiermuth
TE14 - Isaiah Likely
Tier 3 -- Streamers
TE12 - Mike Gesicki
TE13 - Zach Ertz
TE15 - Noah Fant
TE16 - Taysom Hill
TE17 - Dalton Schultz
TE18 - Colby Parkinson
TE19 - Greg Dulcich
TE20 - Jonnu Smith
If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send it my way! Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan!
 
 
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