| | | | Wednesday, October 6, 2021 | | We got some bad news on the injury front coming out of Week 4, and Tuesday made it even worse. David Montgomery's knee injury is perhaps more serious than initially thought, as he is expected to miss 4-5 weeks as a result of the sprain that forced him out of Sunday's game. That timetable puts him in line for a potential Week 9 return on the short end, but if he can't return for that game, it'll be Week 11 coming off the Bears' bye. Those Damien Williams bids from last night could end up being very, very profitable if you ended up with him. | | We've also got a surprise injury to watch out for in Thursday's Seahawks-Rams matchup, as Chris Carson was held out of practice Tuesday with a neck injury. We've seen his snap share dip below 50% in each of the past two games, with Alex Collins taking on a larger role in Week 4, and it's fair to wonder if this injury played a part. Either way, if Collins went unclaimed in your league, it's worth snagging him just in case. We'll have the full injury report and a preview for that game in tomorrow's newsletter. | | Injuries remain a constant headache for Fantasy, and it's not going to get better as the season keeps moving forward, which means you might need to find ways to rebuild your roster -- and the trade market is one way to do it. Wednesday's newsletters are always about trades and position previews, so I've got my Week 5 Stock Watch here for you, with five players to buy and five to sell if you're looking to make a trade -- and make sure you've got Dave's Trade Values Chart handy to make sure you're not getting ripped off. And keep an eye out in Thursday's newsletter for a trade mailbag, as I'll be answering your trade questions -- send them my way at Chris.Towers@CBSi.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to get some advice. | | And, as always, we've got Heath Cummings' position previews for Week 5, with the injuries we're watching this week along with everything else you need to know for each position this week. | | And, in case you missed it yesterday, check out my rankings below with a whole bunch of comments on why I like or dislike certain players this week that I compiled while going through the process of ranking them: | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
| | Hopefully that helps you get an understanding of what to expect for this week. Here's what the rest of today's newsletter has in store to help you get ready for Week 5: | | 📈Week 5 Stock Watch📉🔍Week 5 Position Previews | | | | 📈Week 5 Stock Watch📉 | | | | Looking to make a trade? You know your team a little bit, and you might know where your weak points are already. Or, you might know how to take advantage of someone else's slow start. Make sure you've got your bearings before you go make offers with the help of Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart, and here are five players whose stock I'm buying and five I'm selling ahead of Week 5. | | Five to buy | | Here are five players I'm buying into moving forward. Things are only going to get better from here. | | Buy High | | You don't always have to sell high or buy low. Sometimes a hot start is just the beginning of something big, and there's value in trying to buy those situations before their perceived value catches up. | | Austin Ekeler -- One of the concerns folks had coming into the season about Ekeler was that he probably wouldn't be much of a threat near the end zone, but that hasn't been an issue so far. He has five carries from inside of the 10-yard line -- the "green zone" -- and 12 in the red zone; the rest of the running backs on the roster have three combined carries inside the 10 and eight in the red zone. He's always been a pretty efficient runner and is one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league, so the fact that he's also getting the majority of the snaps and touches in the most valuable parts of the field means he's one of the most valuable Fantasy options in the game. I had Ekeler as a top-six pick in PPR coming into the season, but I was higher on him than most -- I feel like this might be the consensus by now. If it's not and you can get him for less than that, I would do it. Marquise Brown -- There's regression coming for Brown, but it's also worth remembering that his surface numbers would be even better if he had caught one of those dropped touchdowns in Week 3. He's WR14 in PPR despite those drops, and his role in the Ravens offense has seen him getting deep targets consistently. He's been playing extremely well going back to the end of last season, averaging 16.5 PPR points per game over his last 12 games. I'm buying him as a WR2 moving forward, and I think there's enough skepticism around him that it won't cost that much. | | Buy low | | But if you do want to buy low, here are three players I think have seen their worst days already: | | Lamar Jackson -- For what it's worth, I don't actually view Jackson as having diminished value right now, despite the fact that he ranks just 13th in six-point-per-pass-TD scoring so far. He is averaging 31 pass attempts per game, up from 25.1 in 2020, and yet he's also averaging more rushing yards per game. And it's not like the volume is limiting his effectiveness as a passer -- he is also averaging a career-best 8.7 yards per attempt, too. The only issue is that his 3.2% touchdown rate is less than half of what it was last season -- Brown shares some of the blame for that. Jackson still has as much upside as ever. In fact, maybe more. Jonathan Taylor -- The vibes around the Colts offense are pretty bad right now, and Taylor hasn't played more than 55% of the snaps in any of the games and ranks just 20th in PPR scoring at running backs. It's been a disappointment, and in some ways, a not totally unexpected one -- Taylor has just five catches since Week 1, and my concern was always that he wouldn't have enough of a passing game role to be an elite Fantasy option. However, he's also had some unsustainably bad luck, with no touchdowns despite seven carries from inside of the 5-yard line. He has a whopping 20 touches inside of the red zone with no touchdowns; he had nine touchdowns on 50 such touches last season. If he was scoring at the same pace, he'd be RB5 right now. Damien Harris -- I'm not Harris' biggest fan, but his value probably won't ever be lower than it is right now coming off two games with just 37 yards and no touchdowns. He seems like a pretty game-script dependent back, and the last two weeks just didn't go his way. However, in a game where Mac Jones had to throw it 40 times in Week 4, he did see his route share jump up to a season-high 38% in the team's first game without James White . He figures to have a great game against the Texans in Week 5, so at the very least it would be nice to have him on your side for that one. However, if White's injury makes Harris a part of the passing game more consistently, that would give him quite a bit more upside. | | | | Five to sell | | Sell high | | I'm not saying these guys won't be useful or good moving forward, but I think you can probably get more in return for them than you're likely to get from them: | | Cordarrelle Patterson -- Patterson's at that strange point where his current production isn't sustainable in his current role -- he has 45 touches on 97 snaps with five touchdowns -- so the question moving forward is whether his role is likely to change or whether his production is going to fall off sharply. I think the likeliest answer is a bit of column A, a bit of column B. The Falcons probably need to get Patterson more involved in the offense given how he's been the only part of it that is really working, but even if that happens, I'm not sure he'll really be the must-start option people might be viewing him as right now. If you could flip him for someone like Taylor or Amari Cooper, you should do it. Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- Edwards-Helaire's consecutive 100-yard games might be the perfect time to look into selling him. Yes, he's run the ball well, but he is also still ceding touches near the end zone to Darrel Williams, and his own touchdown in Week 4 came after a play where Tyreek Hill was just inches short of the pylon. Edwards-Helaire still isn't a big factor in the passing game -- he ran a season-low 44% of the routes in Week 4 -- and with Williams consistently seeing work near the goal line, Edwards-Helaire just has a very narrow path to significant upside. He's still worth starting every week, but the chances of him having a legitimate breakout seem slimmer than ever to me. Trey Sermon -- Sermon ran the ball well in Week 4 but his overall usage was pretty discouraging considering the fact that the 49ers really didn't have any other running backs see the field besides Sermon and Kyle Juszczyk. Sermon ran a route on just 27% of the team's drop backs while his snap share also fell to 51%. He didn't have a catch or a carry inside of the 10-yard line -- "high-value touches," as friend of the pod Ben Gretch calls them on his essential Stealing Signals newsletter . I'm not convinced Sermon is going to be the lead back for the 49ers when Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) is healthy enough to play, and that could come as soon as Week 5. Add in that Trey Lance is probably going to take on a bunch of carries near the goal line as the starting QB, and I just don't see much upside with Sermon. | | Sell low | | Sometimes, getting off a sinking ship is better than hoping they'll be able to fix the breach in the hull. I'm willing to sell these two on name value I don't think they'll live up to: | | Tony Pollard -- The Cowboys clearly want Pollard to be part of their offense every week, but I think the thought that he might be a starting-caliber Fantasy option alongside Ezekiel Elliott may have been too optimistic. Pollard has just one target over the last two games while Elliott continues to dominate work near the goal line, leaving Pollard with something like 10-ish carries and little else most weeks. He has a ton of value as Elliott's handcuff, but if someone still thinks he might push Elliott for more consistent work, it's worth trying to see. Mike Davis -- If you are bullish about Patterson's chances of pushing for a bigger role, you should probably be looking to move Davis. I don't think Patterson is ever likely to overtake Davis as the lead back, but that really isn't the only concern here, as we saw Wayne Gallman get some run during the fourth quarter of a one-score game in Week 4. Davis just hasn't been particularly good so far this season, and it really wouldn't be a surprise if Gallman got another half-dozen carries in Week 5, looked good, and saw an expanded role from there. I'm still viewing Davis as a starter right now, but I'm not confident he'll be one by November. | | 🔍Week 5 Position Previews | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus top-12 rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | | Injuries to know: Jimmy Garoppolo (calf), Andy Dalton (knee), Teddy Bridgewater (concussion), Ben Roethlisberger (hip)
Number to know: 11.6 -- "Lamar Jackson's intended air yards per attempt is nearly 2 yards higher than the second-highest starting quarterback."Matchup that matters: Jalen Hurts @CAR (9th in points allowed to QB) Top streamer: "Still hung up on that Falcons game for Daniel Jones? It was unlucky. He had 266 yards passing and ran for 39 yards, he just didn't get in the end zone. He has two touchdowns in every other game this season." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Josh AllenPatrick MahomesTom BradyKyler MurrayMatthew StaffordLamar JacksonJustin HerbertRussell WilsonDak PrescottJalen Hurts Kirk CousinsDerek Carr | | | | RB Preview | | | | Injuries to know: Chris Carson (neck), Christian McCaffrey (hamstring), David Montgomery (knee), Joe Mixon (ankle), Elijah Mitchell (shoulder), Peyton Barber (foot), Tony Jones (ankle), Giovani Bernard (knee), JaMycal Hasty (ankle), Rashaad Penny (calf)Number to know: 4,077 -- "Rushing yards for Derrick Henry since the start of 2019. No other running back has more than 3,000 yards rushing in that stretch."Matchup that matters: Antonio Gibson vs. NO (10th in points allowed to RB)Stash: "There's a week coming when Jeff Wilson leads the 49ers backfield again. With all these injuries, Wilson should be stashed whether you have an IR spot or not. " Top DFS play: Trey Sermon -- "Sermon saw a huge workload in Week 4 and will continue to as long as Eli Mitchell remains out. But I would expect even more production from Sermon in that situation, thanks to the Cardinals' poor run defense. Sermon is the same price as injury replacements like Damien Williams and Samaje Perine and I think they'll have a higher roster rate." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Derrick HenryDalvin CookAlvin KamaraAustin EkelerAaron JonesD'Andre SwiftEzekiel ElliottNajee HarrisJames Robinson Saquon BarkleyNick ChubbChris Carson | | WR Preview | | | Injuries to know: Amari Cooper (hamstring), DK Metcalf (foot), A.J. Brown (hamstring), Julio Jones (hamstring), Tee Higgins (shoulder), Chase Claypool (hamstring), D.J. Chark (ankle), Will Fuller (finger), Sterling Shepard (hamstring), Darius Slayton (hamstring), Jerry Jeudy (ankle), Jarvis Landry (knee), Michael Gallup (calf), Elijah Moore (concussion), T.Y. Hilton (neck), Russell Gage (ankle), Tyrell Williams (concussion), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring)
Number to know: 32 -- "Michael Pittman has 32 targets over his past three games. He's one of my favorite buy-low options right now."
Matchup that matters: Robert Woods @SEA (22nd in points allowed to WR)Stash: "Josh Gordon is drawing rave reviews at practice and has already been promoted to the active roster. You can't start him in Week 5, but he may flash in prime time, and you'll be glad you have him on a roster if he does." Top DFS play: "As bad as the Steelers offense has been, it still runs through Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson. Johnson is a No. 1 receiver priced like a low-end No. 2." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Davante AdamsCooper KuppTyreek HillJustin JeffersonStefon DiggsD.J. MooreKeenan AllenDK MetcalfChris GodwinCalvin Ridley Diontae JohnsonMike Williams | | TE Preview | | | | Injuries to know: George Kittle (calf), Rob Gronkowski (ribs), Logan Thomas (hamstring), Tyler Higbee (ankle), Gerald Everett (COVID) Number to know: 219 -- "Kyle Pitts' 219 air yards ranks fifth at the position."Matchup that matters: Dawson Knox vs. KC (29th in points allowed to TE)Streamer: "Tyler Conklin . Even with last week's dud, Conklin is my favorite stream in Week 5. He's played at least 71% of the snaps in every game this year and I think Minnesota should have plenty of red zone opportunities against the hapless Lions." Top DFS play: "You know I don't like messing around with the cheap tight ends in DFS. Darren Waller is the clear class of Week 5's main slate with Travis Kelce playing on Sunday night. " | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Travis KelceDarren WallerT.J. HockensonMark AndrewsGeorge KittleNoah FantKyle PittsTyler HigbeeDalton SchultzMike Gesicki Cameron BrateJared Cook | | | | | | | | Drop In. Ride On. | | Concacaf World Cup Qualifiers | Tune into PBR RIDEPASS, exclusively on Pluto TV. Download the Pluto TV app to watch thrilling western sports, plus over 200 channels of movies, TV shows, news, sports and more, all 100% free.
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