| | | | Wednesday, October 5, 2022 | | The Colts haven't made any decision on Jonathan Taylor's status for Thursday's game against the Broncos , but as of Tuesday, he has yet to practice due to his ankle injury, so I'm not expecting to have him available. It also looks like Dak Prescott won't be making his return from thumb surgery this week – Jerry Jones wouldn't rule him out Tuesday, but he said Prescott's grip is "not well enough to play" four days out from the game. You do the math. | | We didn't get many other updates on injuries Tuesday, which is to be expected – it's the slow news day of the NFL week, after all. Melvin Gordon did get the vote of confidence from offensive coordinator Justin Outten, who told reporters, Gordon is "going to carry the load, obviously." Mike Boone will "mix" in after that, but Outten did say, "We trust Melvin going forward here." | | We'll see if that holds true if Gordon's fumble issues continue, but it does seem like you can pencil Gordon in for the RB1 role for the Broncos, and that might be enough to make him a top-20 RB for Thursday's game against the Colts, who will likely be without Shaquille Leonard, the star linebacker who suffered a broken nose and concussion in Week 4. It'll be tough to trust Gordon, but you probably should. | | We'll know a lot more about the Week 5 landscape for tomorrow's newsletter, with the first batch of practice reports for the rest of the teams playing in Week 5. In today's newsletter, we're taking a look at Heath Cummings' previews for each position, with a rundown of the injuries to know, the key matchups to know about, plus the consensus rankings from the FFT crew. | | Plus, we've got another #AskFFT mailbag, focusing on trades, with the help of Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart. To get your questions included in the newsletter moving forward, send them to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with "#AskFFT" as the subject line to be included. | | | 🔍Week 5 Position Previews
| | | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | "Through the first four weeks of the season, Jared Goff, Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Carson Wentz, and Trevor Lawrence all rank as top 12 Fantasy quarterbacks. They're all ahead of Russell Wilson. Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. | | "In a sample size this small, you probably shouldn't make too much of it, especially for the elite quarterbacks who have struggled." | Injuries: Dak Prescott (thumb), Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), Jameis Winston (back), Mac Jones (ankle), Daniel Jones (ankle) and Brian Hoyer (concussion).Number to know: 9.8 -- The Bills have allowed a league-low 9.8 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Kenny Pickett gets to make his first start against them.
Matchup that matters: Trevor Lawrence vs. HOU (9th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: "Zach Wilson . There are not a lot of great streaming options this week and there are no top-12 quarterbacks you should start Wilson over. But he really looked like he found something in the second half against the Steelers, and he's loaded with weapons. I project 40-plus pass attempts chasing the score against the Dolphins. That gives him a good chance at a top-18 week." Stash: "Kenny Pickett. Despite the three interceptions, Pickett looked the part in his first NFL action. You can't start him in Week 5 against the Bills, but he should be rostered in a majority of leagues and has top-12 upside in the second half of the season if everything goes right." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Josh Allen, BUF Lamar Jackson, BAL Jalen Hurts, PHI Patrick Mahomes, KC Justin Herbert, LAC Tom Brady, TB Joe Burrow, CIN Kyler Murray, ARI Kirk Cousins, MIN Trevor Lawrence, JAC Aaron Rodgers, GB Russell Wilson, DEN | | *My QB Rankings | | | | RB Preview | | "The bell cow running back is growing rarer and rarer every season and 2022 has been no exception. Through Week 4 only seven NFL running backs have handled more than 70% of their team's rush attempts. Of those seven, only Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette have also seen a 12% target share. | | "Most running backs are sharing either rushing and passing downs, many are sharing both. That's why we get really excited when it looks like a new bell cow could be emerging, and that's exactly what Week 4 looked like for Breece Hall." | Injuries: Jonathan Taylor (ankle), D'Andre Swift (shoulder), Alvin Kamara (ribs), Javonte Williams (knee), Cordarrelle Patterson (knee), David Montgomery (ankle), Melvin Gordon (neck), Brian Robinson (knee), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Justice Hill (hamstring), Damien Williams (ribs), Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and Boston Scott (ribs).Number to know: 51.7% -- Snap share for Tyler Allgeier in the second half Sunday after Cordarrelle Patterson went down.
Matchup that matters: Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard @LAR (1st vs. RB)Waiver add: "Tyler Allgeier. It will be a timeshare, but Allgeier appears most likely to lead the Falcons running backs for as long as Cordarrelle Patterson is out. He had great success in Week 4, producing 104 yards on just 11 touches and played more on third downs than Caleb Huntley. Both Huntley and Damien Williams are deep stash options as well."Stash: "Jaylen Warren. Warren has looked more explosive than Najee Harris, and while that won't matter as long as Harris stays healthy, it does highlight just how much upside he could have if Harris goes down. We'd expect 20 touches per game for the rookie, and league-winning potential. if you have an extra roster spot, there are few better ways to use it." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Austin Ekeler, LAC Derrick Henry, TEN Christian McCaffrey, CAR Saquon Barkley, NYG Nick Chubb, CLE Leonard Fournette, TB Dalvin Cook, MIN Joe Mixon, CIN Josh Jacobs, LV Aaron Jones, GB Jamaal Williams, DET Khalil Herbert, CHI Miles Sanders, PHI Clyde Edwards-Helaire , KC James Robinson, JAC Breece Hall, NYJ Jeff Wilson, SF Damien Harris, NE Dameon Pierce, HOU Rhamondre Stevenson, NE Devin Singletary, BUF Najee Harris, PIT James Conner, ARI J.K. Dobbins, BAL | | *My RB Rankings | | | | WR Preview | "The worst feeling in Fantasy is when you spend a high draft pick on a player, give up on them too early, and then watch them boom on someone else's roster. That's why we preach caution early in the season, even if the results are disastrous. For Allen Robinson those disastrous results have gone on for too long to ignore.
"Robinson has somehow been worse in Los Angeles than he was for the Bears . He's averaging fewer yards per target, catch, and game than he did in 2021. His catch rate has fallen to an abysmal 50% and he's only seen more than five targets once all season." | Injuries: Tee Higgins (ankle), Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle), Michael Thomas (toe), Keenan Allen (hamstring), Hunter Renfrow (concussion), Rashod Bateman (foot), Jahan Dotson (hamstring), Julio Jones (undisclosed), Treylon Burks (toe), Jakobi Meyers (knee), Isaiah McKenzie (concussion), Zay Jones (ankle), Kadarius Toney (hamstring), Noah Brown (neck), D.J. Chark (ankle), Kenny Golladay (knee) and Wan'Dale Robinson (knee).Number to know: 50.2 -- The Ravens have allowed the most PPR Fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They face the Bengals in Week 5.
Matchup that matters: Diontae Johnson @BUF (5th vs. WR) Waiver add: " George Pickens. Pickens' roster rate is a little higher than I generally target in this space, but I just wanted to say he should be universally rostered by Thursday morning. His talent combined with the way Pickett looked downfield in his first game, could lead to a very sudden changing of the guard in Pittsburgh." Stash: "Kadarius Toney and Wan'Dale Robinson.For the second week in a row, I'm planning on stashing both Kadarius Toney and Wan'Dale Robinson until we see if they're ruled out for Week 5. One of these guys is going to have a big impact in the second half of the season if they can get healthy and get on Brian Daboll's good side. The team needs them desperately." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Cooper Kupp, LAR Justin Jefferson, MIN Stefon Diggs, BUF Tyreek Hill, MIA Davante Adams, LV Ja'Marr Chase, CIN Deebo Samuel, SF A.J. Brown, PHI Tee Higgins, CIN Mike Evans, TB Marquise Brown, ARI CeeDee Lamb, DAL Courtland Sutton, DEN Christian Kirk, JAC Michael Pittman, IND Mike Williams, LAC Jaylen Waddle, MIA Brandin Cooks, HOU Chris Olave, NO Chris Godwin, TB DK Metcalf, SEA Tyler Lockett, SEA DeVonta Smith, PHI Diontae Johnson, PIT | | *My WR Rankings | | TE Preview | | "Few players have been as frustrating in Fantasy as Kyle Pitts has been this year. And I'm afraid I might be adding to the frustration. Yesterday, I wrote that I didn't believe it was time to bench Pitts but the projections at the bottom of this article show him outside of the top 12, behind Tyler Higbee, Tyler Conklin, and David Njoku. | | "The truth is, it's hard to find a reason to project Pitts any higher." | | Injuries: Cameron Brate (concussion).Number to know: 25.5% -- Tyler Higbee's 25.5% target share is second among tight ends behind only Mark Andrews. Matchup that matters: Juwan Johnson vs. SEA (32nd vs. TE)Streamer: "Tyler Conklin . I was encouraged by the fact that Conklin earned a 15% target share in Zach Wilson's first start. You can now view him as a low-end starter until he proves otherwise." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Travis Kelce, KCMark Andrews, BALT.J. Hockenson, DET Zach Ertz, ARITyler Higbee, LARDarren Waller, LV Dallas Goedert, PHIPat Freiermuth, PIT Gerald Everett, LAC David Njoku, CLEGeorge Kittle, SFKyle Pitts, ATL | | *My TE Rankings | | 📫Trade Mailbag | | I was originally planning on writing about why you should be trying to trade for Kyle Pitts here, but I got an email from an FFT listener named Dave that I wanted to highlight instead. Go buy Kyle Pitts. Dave writes: | | "Everyone keeps saying sell high on Clyde Edwards-Helaire but I haven't really heard any suggestions on who to sell him for. Also, looking back at some rankings you guys had him in like tier 5 (round 6-7-8). So isn't another option to just continue playing with "house money" and ride the wave? Does anyone else feel like he's going to just have a season like LaGarrette Blount did a few years ago? 18 TDs on an elite offense. Sign me up for that." | | For whatever it's worth, Blount finished the season you are referring to as RB14 in PPR scoring per game, which is good, but not necessarily irreplaceable, as difficult as that might seem to believe right now. It's not a perfect comp because of Edwards-Helaire's surprisingly viable passing game role for the Chiefs right now, but I think that's probably a realistic ceiling for Edwards-Helaire, who won't be as productive as a rusher as Blount was. | | But the real problem with holding Edwards-Helaire is simply that touchdowns are driving his value, and we've never seen him have this kind of success near the goal line before – he has five touchdowns on six touches inside of the 10-yard line in four games, compared to eight touchdowns on 28 such touches in his first 23 games. It's not inconceivable that Edwards-Helaire could crush it with huge touchdown totals, but it's hard to believe, given the way we've seen KC use him in his career. | | Now, that being said, this is a different Chiefs offense – Tyreek Hill is gone, and he's been replaced by a bunch of guys who haven't proven they can be real weapons in this passing game, especially in the red zone. It's entirely possible Edwards-Helaire will just remain a focal point near the goal line all season long. He's averaging 81 yards from scrimmage and 3.3 receptions per game, and if he keeps that kind of role and production up, he'll be a decent RB2 even when the touchdown pace slows down. | | Which is to say, you don't have to sell Edwards-Helaire right now, because he should be a useful Fantasy option regardless. Week 4 was an especially promising game for him, as he benefited from a run-heavy script and saw a usage spike, something we hadn't seen in the first three games. The emphasis here is on the "high" part of "sell-high." If someone views him as a top-12 RB, you move him. If you can get, say, Tee Higgins or Deebo Samuel or Jaylen Waddle for it, you do it. If you can't – if the best offer you get is for, like, DK Metcalf or Mike Williams – you hold him. | | Now, let's get to the rest of the trade mailbag. Every Wednesday in this space, I'll be answering your trade questions, giving you Dave Richard's trade chart's spin as well as how I would approach the deals. If you want your trade questions answered, send them over to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" and I'll make sure they get answered next week: | | @curs3li4ted: Trying to buy low on Alvin Kamara (while getting out of some rollercoasters) for Mike Williams and James Conner. Who says no? | What the trade chart says: Giving up 32, getting 22.What I say: I think you're probably giving up too much here, but that's not because I don't like Kamara. In fact, I think he's an excellent buy-low candidate, assuming his rib injury heals relatively soon. The fact that the Saints didn't sign Latavius Murray when the Broncos came calling feels like a pretty good sign that Kamara is going to be OK, and I'm still expecting him to be a high-end Fantasy option when healthy, even if Mark Ingram and Taysom Hill are annoying enough to limit his ultimate upside. However, Conner's upside isn't far off -- he's not nearly the same kind of playmaker, but he's in a better offense with a clearer path to goal-line domination and is getting the passing game role we hoped for -- and Williams is still a definite top-20 WR for me. Yes, he'll frustrate you with his inconsistency, because that's what his role leads to sometimes -- downfield targets are lower-percentage looks, so when he doesn't hit on a big play or two, he runs the risk of flopping. There's value in trading high-variance players for more dependable ones, but as much as I like Kamara, I don't think this is that deal.
| | Will: I have been offered to trade Leonard Fournette for Dalvin Cook (Cook is on my team) and I was wondering what you all thought about this. | What the trade chart says: Giving up 25, getting 21.What I say: It's an interesting time for Fournette, who ceded significant passing downs reps for the first time Sunday since the first half of last season. Whether that is a one-time blip on the radar due to the Buccaneers going with an absurdly run-heavy approach will determine whether this trade works out for you, but I'll also note that this is the kind of trade I generally don't like trying to pull off - similar players in the same tier at the same position. Cook comes with injury concerns, while Fournette is heavily dependent on massive volume to be an elite Fantasy option. Whether one ends up better than the other will likely come down to luck or variance or whatever you want to term it. I think I agree with the trade chart that Cook is the more valuable player, but there's also more risk that he's just a nothing.
| | Darin: Kareem Hunt and Allen Robinson for Drake London and Kenneth Walker. I needed WR help bad, so I wanted to acquire London and the other team was looking for a RB2 like Hunt. | What the trade chart says: Giving up 18, getting 11. What I say: I think Hunt for London is pretty close to a wash here - neither is a for-sure impact player every week, but both are good enough to start right now, with obviously huge upside if a few things break right in their favor. Which you prefer comes down to team need, so it makes sense. What makes this a big win for you, in my view, is the Robinson-for-Walker part of it. Not that Walker is a hugely valuable player, but it's a lot easier for me to see him being a starting-caliber Fantasy option than it is for Robinson. Walker needs a Rashaad Penny injury for it to happen, and Penny has been hurt more often than he's been healthy in the NFL, so Walker remains worth stashing. I can't say the same for Robinson, who seemingly needs a time machine to be Fantasy relevant at this point.
| | Sean: I'm trying to package Garrett Wilson and either Gibson or Jeff Wilson into something better. Have to clear space for Brian Robinson on IR. | | What the trade chart says: Wilson + Wilson = 18. Wilson + Gibson = 15.What I say: It's not a great time to be trying to trade Garrett Wilson or Gibson, so you might have to focus on packaging the Wilsons together for something. Going by the trade values chart, Chris Godwin is one potential target, though I think that might be a bit unlikely - Godwin carries risk of his own, of course, but he might also be on the verge of breaking out in a big way. I would definitely do that trade if I could, otherwise looking for someone like Marquise Brown or Michael Thomas makes sense to me if you're looking for a WR; James Conner or J.K. Dobbins are good RB targets, as well. Or you could try to go for Wilson and Gibson as a buy-low for Pitts, which is a trade I would do if I needed upside at TE. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | We Need to Talk | ✔Scores & Highlights
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