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Tuesday, October 1, 2024
We are one month into the season, which feels like a decent time to catch everybody up on what the hell just happened over the first four weeks of the regular season. As it always is, it was pure chaos in Fantasy football land.
That's what I've been doing all day -- catching people up on some of the statistical stuff that I track during the season. This season, I'm making an effort to also include video cut-ups of what I'm seeing on the field. Of course, not everyone has time to down and watch every game every week. Even I don't, I'll admit. I haven't watched the Patriots or Broncos offensive series since Week 1. Most people do have time for a two-minute cut-up, though, right? Everybody poops!
Some Twitter threads that you might like:
  • I created a thread of QB cut-ups where every throw of 15+ air yards (when not facing pressure) was included for almost every quarterback. If you wanna watch that, it's sorted by the highest off-target rate (Caleb Williams) on these passes to the lowest (Geno Smith!).
  • RB thread examining which backs have created the most/least yards after initial contact
  • WR thread providing historical context on the rookie receiver class as well as an examination of which receivers have seen an increase/decrease to their target rates from 2023 to 2024.
Alrighty, let's look at this week's waiver wire.
Week 5 Waiver Wire Targets:
Quarterback
Daniel Jones - Of course, I wouldn't want to play Daniel Jones if Malik Nabers doesn't suit up. If Nabers plays, Jones could have a decent week against a Seattle defense that is on a short week of rest and just gave up a perfect game to Jared Goff. In shallower leagues, check your waiver wire for Matthew Stafford in a potential Week 5 shootout against the Packers!
Running Back
Kareem Hunt - The Chiefs trusted Hunt with 9 of 11 RB rush attempts in the second half and leaned on him as the offensive engine with the short-passing game missing Rashee Rice and the run game missing Isiah Pacheco. Carson Steele may get another crack at handling lead back duties, or maybe Hunt is simply going to resume the early-down role that he occupied for the Chiefs once-upon-a-time. Hunt looked healthier than in 2023, and he may find success in his second stint in Kansas City. The two upcoming matchups are not inviting, so I'm not breaking the bank to add the 29-year-old back anywhere.
Trey Sermon - We don't know how long Jonathan Taylor will be out, we don't know how much of his role Sermon will inherit, and we don't know how effective Sermon will be. A Week 5 matchup against the Jaguars is a pretty decent spot to find out the second and third answers! He's probably the best fill-in RB option on the waiver wire if speaking strictly in reference to Week 5.
Tyler Allgeier - Bijan Robinson's role was scaled back in the most meaningful way that we've seen under the new Atlanta regime, and that seemed to clearly be related to the awesome play of Tyler Allgeier.
Justice Hill - He's a baller. If desperate for a fill-in flex, Hill may have Fantasy relevancy again in Week 5 as the Ravens face a leaky Cincinnati Bengals defense. Hill also makes for a solid stash. If Derrick Henry goes down, Hill would likely lead the backfield. This coaching staff seems to have immense trust in the vet.
Tank Bigsby - Again, Bigsby didn't see a drastic increase in playing time. I wonder if he's on a snap count. He looked good! You can watch all of the Jacksonville RB runs from Week 4 here, if you'd like a side-by-side comparison of Bigsby and Travis Etienne.
Tyrone Tracy - The electric rookie continues to look like a potential contributor for the Giants. He was involved on New York's opening drive in Week 4, interestingly (to me!). The Giants were bottled up by the Cowboys on the ground, so Tracy still has very little to show for all the excitement that I exude, but I remain enthused that an effusion of PPR points could follow any extended opportunity that Tracy may ever receive. I'm stashing him in deep leagues, if that wasn't clear.
Emanuel Wilson - If Josh Jacobs were to suffer an injury, this is the next man up, and the Packers have been giving him some work as is. With MarShawn Lloyd on the IR, Wilson is worth rostering if you have spot for a speculative lottery ticket type of stash.
Isaac Guerendo - This is the clear fill-in if Mason were to go down.
Wide Receiver
Dontayvion Wicks - The opportunity is massive. And we have seen Wicks be highly productive with his opportunities thus far. We don't know how long Christian Watson will be out or how well the small sample size stats will translate for Wicks, but I'm burning the top waiver wire priority without a second thought to speculate on what might happen.
In FAAB formats, I'm happy to spend up to 70% of my salary. That obviously depends on all of the context. Make up your own mind and go with a decision that feels good based on your team's needs and your own risk tolerance. I gave you insight into the absolute most I would be willing to allocate to Wicks as a waiver wire add. That is not a green light to dump all of your FAAB. You'll find the right balance for your own bidding, I believe in you!
Tutu Atwell - I told y'all last week! Don't sleep! Atwell remains available in 59% of CBS leagues, so somebody's sleeping! Sean McVay creates such easy looks for Atwell! Until Cooper Kupp returns, I'm expecting Atwell to remain highly Fantasy-relevant.
Xavier Legette - Carolina's target distribution seems likely to continue to be highly concentrated on Diontae Johnson and Legette with Jonathan Mingo and Tommy Tremble as the top competition for targets. You can watch all 10 of Legette's Week 5 targets here! I'm not so sure how he'll fare in a more difficult Week 5 matchup.
Josh Downs - I hope you added him early! I've ascended to simply posting Larry David's face next to Josh Downs data, I can't handle my excitement. He's one of my favorite players at any position, and he appears to be healthy enough to get out there and crush it on the NFL field for the first time in nearly a year.
Tre Tucker - We have a loaded wide receiver waiver wire in Week 4. And still, I stand by my aggressiveness in pursuing Wicks. The situation is perfect. That's not what we're dealing with in Las Vegas. Still, Tucker is an awesome young player. You can watch him cook preseason defenders here. He can make plays with the ball in his hands or torch defenders down the field. With Davante Adams potentially moving on, Tucker may step into a significant role for the Raiders.
Jordan Whittington - He's been highly productive, and the Rams love him. He's a pretty solid fill-in flex in a potential shootout against the Packers.
Tight End 
Erick All - If you want a deep-league TE with sleeper upside, All might just be him.
If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here!
Another reminder: each Friday, we'll go 'In The Lab' in this space:
If you have want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday!
Week 5 Rankings 
Quarterback
I'll sort these rankings into tiers in the Thursday update. Check back on Thursday if you want tiers.
("ECR" = expert consensus rank. These images show my rankings and how they compare to consensus, courtesy of FantasyPros)

Running Backs
I'll sort these rankings into tiers in the Thursday update. Check back on Thursday if you want tiers.
("ECR" = expert consensus rank. These images show my rankings and how they compare to consensus, courtesy of FantasyPros)
Wide Receivers
I'll sort these rankings into tiers in the Thursday update. Check back on Thursday if you want tiers.
("ECR" = expert consensus rank. These images show my rankings and how they compare to consensus, courtesy of FantasyPros)
Tight Ends
I'll sort these rankings into tiers in the Thursday update. Check back on Thursday if you want tiers.
("ECR" = expert consensus rank. These images show my rankings and how they compare to consensus, courtesy of FantasyPros)
If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send it my way! Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan!
 
 
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