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Tuesday, October 13, 2020
Week 6 is here and Week 5 isn't over. Welcome to the NFL in 2020, where a Tuesday night game between the Bills and Titans will kick off later today to close out the week while we're already starting our Week 6 preview planning. 
Just a heads up for how this is going to work, if you're in a CBS Fantasy league, waivers will still run as scheduled Tuesday evening — in Commissioner leagues, you can adjust that to Wednesday night if you'd rather have a full day after the final game to prepare. So, we've still got Jamey Eisenberg's top waiver targets for Week 6 ready to go for you in today's newsletter. Plus, Dave Richard's trade values chart can help you find the best replacement for Dak Prescott, and I answer some of your biggest questions for Week 6 before recapping Monday Night Football.
As always, if you want your questions answered, send them to Chris.Towers@CBSinteractive.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" and they may be featured right here later in the week. Here's what you need to know to start preparing for Week 6. 
Here's how Jamey Eisenberg is prioritizing the top options on waivers this week: 
  1. Chase Claypool (39%) — It's certainly not a guarantee that Claypool will be the Steelers No. 1 WR moving forward, but the upside is too high not to try to find out. 
  2. Justin Jackson (66%) — Jackson earned 20 touches to just 12 for Joshua Kelley. With the Chargers on bye in Week 6, Jackson may not be as much of a priority for some, which could make Jackson a relative value this week.
  3. Ryan Fitzpatrick (42%) — The top option if you're looking to replace Prescott this week, Fitzpatrick gets the Jets riding a nice hot streak that most recently saw him dominate the 49ers on the road. 
  4. Dolphins DST (6%) —The Dolphins DST also gets the Jets after dominating the 49ers. A fine streaming option. 
  5. Christian Kirk (60%) — The non-DeAndre Hopkins receivers in Arizona have been a disappointment so far, but Kirk is coming off his best game of the season (five catches, 78 yards vs. NYJ) and gets Dallas in Week 6. He'll be a solid starting option. 
  6. Travis Fulgham (1%) — Like Claypool, there is at least a chance Fulgham will be one of the top receivers in the Eagles offense. The problem is, he doesn't have Claypool's pedigree, and this Eagles offense isn't as good as the Steelers. Still, Fulgham is worth adding if you've got the space. 
When I asked my Twitter followers for their biggest questions heading into Week 6, one of the first ones I received was about how to go about replacing Prescott, and it wasn't the only one. Specifically, one person asked, "Should I try to trade for a Dak replacement or play waivers?" That fits in nicely for today's newsletter, as I've got Dave Richard's trade values chart here to help you find a winning deal. Let's use the chart to identify some possible deals for Prescott replacements. 
My preference would be to try to stream it unless you can get a true difference maker via trade, but you might actually be able to get one of those difference makers right now. Deshaun Watson had a nice Week 5, but has been a pretty big disappointment overall, and his price might still be low enough to take a chance on. Looking at the trade chart, Watson has a value of 18 in 1QB leagues, roughly equivalent to someone in the low-end WR2 range like JuJu Smith-Schuster or D.J. Chark . If I could move Smith-Schuster for Watson right now, I would do it because I have a lot of concern about Smith-Schuster's role in Pittsburgh. 
If you want to aim even higher, go for Lamar Jackson. If the person who has Jackson in your league is smart, he won't even consider moving him when his value is lowest, but it's worth putting out some feelers to check. Jackson was never going to replicate his 2019 numbers, but with just one rushing touchdown in five games and a dip to 7.0 yards per attempt through the air, better days are ahead. He'll cost more than Watson, obviously, but if you could move a sell-high candidate at running back — David Johnson is one option that works on the trade chart that I would definitely do, but I would also consider Todd Gurley or possibly even James Robinson if I had the depth to spare — Jackson is obviously worth trying to acquire. 
Week 6's Biggest Questions
Here are some of your other big questions heading into Week 6: 
How will Dak Prescott's absence impact the Dallas skill position players?
My expectation is that we'll see a less aggressive version of this Cowboys offense with Andy Dalton in place of Prescott. When you've got a QB like Prescott, you can run a fast-paced offense that spreads the ball around, confident that he'll make the right decision and make big plays. While Dalton is competent, they won't give him the same kind of leeway Prescott had. That should mean fewer passes overall but a higher percentage of targets to Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb, and a steady dose of Ezekiel Elliott . As I said in Sunday's newsletter, any pass that doesn't go to Gallup, Lamb or Cooper is a win for the defense, and with a smaller margin for error, I would expect them to be the focal points. 
That's bad news for Elliott's role in the passing game, if it comes true, though he has such a significant role in the running game and near the goal line that it doesn't really matter. However, it could really harm Dalton Schultz, a more marginal part of the offense. He should still be Fantasy relevant, but I'll need to see Dalton lean on him before I go back to thinking Schultz can be a reliable weekly option. 
What is the state of the tight end position after one-third of the season?
Folks … it's bad! There are more players averaging double digits in Fantasy points than last season, but that includes the likes of Jordan Reed and Dallas Goedert (both on IR), plus Mike Gesicki, Jimmy Graham and T.J. Hockenson, none of whom feel particularly reliable. 
That being said, there are real reasons to be excited about some of the early breakouts: 
  • Robert Tonyan probably won't keep scoring every week, but he has Aaron Rodgers' trust in a shallow receiving corps, so he feels like a starter moving forward.
  • Jonnu Smith and Noah Fant are legitimate stars with the ball in their hands, rivaling George Kittle for yards after catch dominance. That's a lofty comparison, and neither is nearly as good as Kittle. But Smith has high weekly upside beyond the chance of scoring a touchdown, and Fant very well may be the No. 1 option in the Broncos passing game when he gets back from his ankle injury, and I could see a Kittle-esque breakout. 
  • Even Gesicki and Hockenson have legitimate potential if they can earn more consistent targets. Both are big, athletic players who have shown the ability to make plays down the field. They just need to avoid the really bad games to take the next step. 
  • I also have to think Zach Ertz and Evan Engram will be better moving forward, though I'll admit both might just be wishful thinking, given how poorly they've played — and how bad their quarterbacks look right now. 
  • And, if you'll indulge me for just one more second, I still believe in Logan Thomas. He ranks just 36th at the position in scoring, but he's another guy who figures to benefit if the QB situation in Washington improves. It can't get worse, right? 
How should I handle roster management in an injury-plagued season?
It's not just the injuries, obviously, as we've seen with the Titans over the past few weeks. You need contingency plans wherever you can afford them. Typically, I am loath to carry a second quarterback, but it's easier to justify when you've seen Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton and Ryan Tannehill all lose games related to the COVID pandemic. If your league is pretty shallow and people don't hoard QB, you won't need to, but it's a better idea these days than in the past. 
I'm also just generally less likely to make two-for-one or three-for-one deals where I give up multiple useful pieces for one better player right now than I normally would. Depth is crucial, and willingly giving up on it — especially when only six teams have had their bye and we've got some big bye weeks coming up — may not be the right play. 
One thing I will suggest is trying to diversify your roster as much as you can. A lot of people like to handcuff their starting running back with his backup, but if you did that with James Conner and Benny Snell, you had two dead spots on your roster in Week 4. Part of your plan for making it through this season should be about minimizing risk, and when whole games are being postponed or rescheduled, having a variety of options is more important than ever. 
How do I forget about the draft and focus on player's current values for trades/drops/etc.?
For the first few weeks of the season, your preseason expectation should still matter quite a bit, but that starts to lessen as we move on. And that is especially true when it comes to assumptions about playing time or hierarchy, because a change in intention is a lot easier to suss out than a change in talent. I was high on JuJu Smith-Schuster and D.J. Moore coming into the season, and I still hold out hope, but I've also had to accept that, as good as I think they are, they don't have the role I thought they did. 
It's harder when you're talking about performance-related changes, because five games just isn't enough time to know for sure whether a change is real or not. When trying to figure out how to value players at this point in the season, try to focus on potential opportunity changes, rather than perceived changes in underlying talent, and don't be afraid to cut bait if a player you liked just isn't getting the chance you thought they would. 
The counter to that would be that if you have a player like Mecole Hardman or Chase Edmonds, who you are sure will be a difference-maker if they get the chance, so hanging on to them isn't a bad idea in a season where everyone seems to be getting hurt. Life, uh, finds a way. 
Justin Herbert continues to look like the real deal, and he and Mike Williams nearly single-handedly won this game before the kicker doinked one. 
  • Injuries: Keenan Allen (back) — Left in the first half and did not return. We'll have to watch this one moving forward, but luckily he's got the bye in Week 6 to heal up. 
  • Winner: Mike Williams. It's been up and down for Williams so far this season, but when he's right, he's a tremendous player. Five catches for 109 yards and a pair of scores in his return from a hamstring injury was great to see, and it's a reminder of just how big the upside is. It could be frustrating on a week-to-week basis, but if Allen has to miss any time, Williams will be a must-start option. 
  • Loser: Joshua Kelley. I thought Justin Jackson might end up the lead back in Austin Ekeler's absence, and that's what happened in the first game. He ran better than Kelley (15 carries for 71 yards vs. 29 yards on 11 carries for Kelley) and he dominated the passing game work, too, catching five passes on six targets while Kelley was targeted just once. Kelley looked great in the first two games of the season, but he fumbled in consecutive games and then got surpassed by Jackson on Monday. It'll be hard to trust him moving forward despite the fact that he should continue to have a decent role, and if there's one back to start here in Week 6 against the Chargers, it's Jackson. 
  • What you may have missed: Emmanuel Sanders' big game (12 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD) could have been even bigger because he actually scored just before half-time only to have the call be reversed that he was down at the 1. Drew Brees snuck in for the score two plays later, so Sanders lost out. Still, he has looked great the past two weeks, and is back on Fantasy radars even with Michael Thomas back in Week 7. 
 
 
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