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| Wednesday, October 16, 2024 |
| It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! I'm going to again let the matchup notes span two days this week, I think I like that format the best of the things we've tried this year. So, today's matchups will be pass-game centric, with Thursday's newsletter focused more on the run game. |
| Before we dive in, here are a few reminders for the FFT fam: |
| 1. If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here! |
| 2. This Thursday's Beyond the Box Score guest will be Mike Wright of the Fantasy Footballers. Surely, you know Mike! Along with Jason Moore and Andy Holloway, Mike has helped establish the Footballers as one of the leaders at the forefront of spreading the good news of this silly game that we all love. Mike has been one of my favorite analysts dating back to before I even started working as an analyst, and I'm really excited to pick his brain on the evolution of football research. We're also going to discuss rest of season rankings and provide some historical comparisons for the following young players: |
Kenneth Walker
James Cook
Drake London
Jayden Reed
Tucker Kraft
Josh Downs
Ladd McConkey
Brian Thomas Jr.
Rome Odunze
Bucky Irving |
| 3. Each Friday, we'll go 'In The Lab' in this space: |
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| If you want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Under Pressure -- how might blitz/pressure rates impact Week 7? |
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Shane Bowen's Giants have played really well defensively lately
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| The Eagles have another tough test after contending with Cleveland's blitz-heavy approach in Week 6. Jalen Hurts was again pressured at a high rate (46%), and only Jacoby Brissett has a higher pressure rate on the year. According to the FantasyPoints Data Suite, the Giants rank second in pressure rate over expectation and have the fifth-fastest time to pressure in 2024. Over the past three weeks, none of Dak Prescott, Geno Smith, or Joe Burrow have been able to engineer an offensive output of more than 20 points vs. this defense. The Eagles have a 23.5-point implied total for Week 7. |
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| Hurts has been respectable when pressured, especially considering he's been without his top target for most of the year. In 2023, Hurts was above league average in most metrics when pressured. His underlying rates (proprietary Fantasy Points Data metrics such as highly accurate ball, catchable ball, etc) have dipped slightly, but I think that's mostly due to a seriously diminished first-read target rate, which is a product of being without A.J. Brown (and DeVonta Smith in Week 4). |
| In Week 6, Hurts was able to take just one sack and facilitate a strong performance from Brown. I expect that is who we'll see him lean on again in Week 7. Brown is just one target behind Smith on the year when Hurts has been under pressure, even though his sample size is just 27 pressured routes to Smith's 55. Most players see their production go way down when their QB has been pressured, that hasn't been the case with AJB. He has the best per-route production of any player (minimum 25 routes) with a QB under pressure in 2024. This has been the case throughout their time together in Philly -- Brown has been the player that Hurts has leaned on when under pressure. |
| Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins face the aggressive Browns defense |
| By now, you're surely familiar with the Browns defense. Cleveland uses more man coverage and single-high safety looks than any defense. The Browns blitz a ton and have the fastest average time to pressure. This defense is aggressive. And it's often left out to dry by an offense that can't move the chains. |
| I dug into Cincinnati's data to get a feel for this matchup, and what I found was complicated. Here's a weird note on Ja'Marr Chase's data vs. man coverage over the years. His average depth of target vs. man coverage has steadily declined, as have his target rates. As a result, his efficiency when facing man coverage has been much worse over the past two years. |
| The Fantasy Points Data Suite provides some hope, though. |
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| Chase is obviously still an electric playmaker, so maybe we see Burrow look his way more in this matchup. When blitzed, Chase has been Burrow's favorite target. He's also the most leaned-upon player when Burrow has been pressured, followed closely, surprisingly, by Andrei Iosivas. If the Browns are able to quickly get pressure on Burrow, it may throw off his ability to find Tee Higgins on longer-developing routes. |
| We just saw Cincy face the defense that is closest to the Browns at the top of the time to throw leaderboard, though, and Higgins again led the team in targets. His average depth of target came down to just six yards in Week 6. Higgins accounted for half of Burrow's first-read targets in Week 6, that was higher than any other player on any team. |
| My feeling -- based on more than just Week 6 information -- is that this matchup is not a good one for Higgins. He's being used down the field far more than Chase, who has adapted to more slot routes and short-intermediate area of the field work. Higgins feels like a boom-bust type of play. If we see yet another week of him leading the Bengals in targets, that would be a really strong rest of season indicator for a WR who has been shooting up my rest of season rankings. |
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| Jordan loves to air it out vs. pressure! |
| Over the past two seasons, Love has a 10.7-yard average depth of target when pressured. In 2024, that rate is up to 11.2, behind only Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen. As we saw on the Romeo Doubs touchdown last week, Love will attempt any type of throw if he feels he has a chance at a one-on-one down the field. |
| It will be very interesting to see how he attacks vs. this Texans defense. Houston ranks third in pressure rate over expectation and has the highest opponent average depth of target in the NFL. Opponents haven't found much success when attacking deep but have chosen to air it out against the Texans. |
| We'll dive into the coverage information as it pertains to Green Bay's pass-catchers in just a bit. First, let's wrap up 'Under Pressure' with a look at the Texans offense. |
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| Green Bay's pass rush needs to step it up |
| On the other side of the ball, the Packers defense has the third-worst pressure rate over expectation. Green Bay ranks 30th with a blitz rate of just 19.6% in 2024. When not blitzed, C.J. Stroud has locked in on Nico Collins down the field. |
| In Week 6, it was Tank Dell who inherited a large portion of the downfield work that Collins had been doing. |
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| You can compare the Week 6 route data for Dell and Stefon Diggs here! I'm providing a slightly larger matchup-based boost to Dell, but I expect both players to perform well. Each are ranked as top-20 Fantasy WRs for me in Week 7. |
| Week 7 Coverage Data |
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Get your popcorn out, we've got a Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Christian Gonzalez matchup
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| The New England Patriots rank fifth in the NFL in man coverage use, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and the Jaguars have two receivers ranked top-five in creating multiple steps of separation vs. man coverage in 2024. |
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| Of the two, Christian Kirk has the higher target per route run rate (33%) vs. man. BTJ's rate is 27%, but we might see that number shrink if Christian Gonzalez is his primary coverage assignment in Week 7. |
| In Week 2, we saw both Jaxon Smith-Njigba (12-117) and DK Metcalf (10-129-1) get loose vs. this Pats defense, although Metcalf had a long TD on a blown coverage. He didn't actually create much on his own when covered by Gonzalez. It's noteworthy for Kirk, I think, that JSN's biggest game came vs. this defense. The Jags have a decent implied point total (24 points -- 11th-highest in Week 7), and we could see Trevor Lawrence lean heavily on Kirk if he doesn't feel as confident in targeting BTJ. |
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Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels set to keep rolling
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| Also, Noah Brown may be a sneak Week 7 play?! If you're desperate in a deep league, maybe Brown will save you?! |
| The Commanders have the highest implied point total of the week in a matchup against a Panthers defense that does not get much pressure and uses a ton of Cover-3. Both matchup factors bode well for downfield passing. If Washington's defense struggles and this turns into a shootout, we could see massive numbers pile up for Washington's passing attack. |
| Among 33 qualifiers (minimum 50 routes vs. Cover-3), McLaurin ranks third in yards per route run. |
| Target per route run rate vs. Cover-3 |
25% - Terry McLaurin
24% - Noah Brown
18% - Zach Ertz |
| Yards per route run vs. Cover-3 |
3.31 - Terry McLaurin
2.00 - Noah Brown
1.51 - Zach Ertz |
| I think Jakobi Meyers delivers a big Week 7 performance |
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| Meyers gets a schematic fit in his Week 7 matchup against the Rams, a defense that uses a lot of Cover-3. A single-high safety zone coverage scheme, Cover-3 typically leads to increased target rates for perimeter WR1 types. That's the role that Meyers is set to play for the remainder of 2024. Davante Adams had a massive 38% target per route run rate vs. Cover-3 this season (33% in 2023), and Meyers has a 29% rate on the year. |
| Keep an eye on Riq Woolen's status for Seattle |
| The Falcons carry the second-highest implied point total of Week 7 in a projected shootout vs. Seattle, and the Seahawks may be without top cover corner Riq Woolen. His absence would be huge for Drake London and Darnell Mooney. |
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| Is Jared Goff the one?! |
| No one has been able to figure out Brian Flores and the Minnesota Vikings defense in 2024. Each week, I've speculated on how the upcoming opponent might fare against Minnesota, and each week, that opponent has not fared well! Maybe Jared Goff is the one who hands the Vikes their first loss? Vegas doesn't think so. The Lions have a notably lower implied point total (23.5) in Week 7 and are listed as 2.5-point underdogs. |
| I highlight Goff this week for two reasons -- the Vikings use a ton of stunts (disguised blitzes, you could think of them as fake blitzes) and rank first in the NFL in two-high safety coverage. When facing two-high, Goff has the league's highest first-read target rate. That seems like good news for Amon-Ra St. Brown. It may be bad news for Sam LaPorta, who has been an afterthought. Goff has the league's highest 'accurate ball' rate vs. stunts and seventh-highest first-read target rate. He hasn't been disrupted by stunts in the way that many passers have. He also found success in two meetings with Flores last season. |
| Target per route run rate vs. two-high safety coverage: |
37% -- St. Brown
26% - Jameson Williams
18% - the RBs
9% - LaPorta |
| Woof! LaPorta is good enough to turn one target into a huge gain, as we saw in Week 6. This looks like another low target volume game for him, on paper, though. |
| Okay, back to that Packers-Texans matchup |
| I saved the best for last. I'm so excited to watch this matchup! |
| Jayden Reed has been the NFL's most efficient yards per route run creator when his QB has not been under pressure in 2024. When pressured, both in 2023 and 2024, Love has been more likely to yeet it deep to his perimeter receivers. That could be relevant against Houston. |
| However, I do think the individual coverage assignments may influence Love's decisions in Week 7. If Reed is creating massive separation from the slot, I'd expect Love to find him and keep going back to him. The slot has proven to be the path of least resistance vs. this Houston defense. |
| It's worth noting that Kamari Lassiter will miss this game for Houston. He's a Round 2 rookie that had been rounding into shape covering the offense's left side, opposite star corner Derek Stingley. His absence may open up more opportunities for Christian Watson. The Texans may also be without safety Jimmie Ward for this matchup. We absolutely may see Love test this secondary down the field. |
| As far as scheme-specific notes, the only coverage that the Texans use notably more than average is Cover-4. Jayden Reed joins Nico Collins as the only two players with an absurd yard per route run rate above FIVE when facing Cover-4 in 2024. Reed was also the most productive of the current healthy Green Bay trio at WR when facing Cover-4 in 2023. |
| The Packers move their receivers around enough that any could break a long play against backup defensive backs in Week 7. |
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| Doubs plays the most at the outside right receiver spot, so he'll see the most of Stingley's coverage. But none of the receivers spend over half of their time on the right. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday; you can find those on YouTube! |
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