| | | | Monday, May 6, 2024 | | The injuries just keep on coming, and we had some really big ones this weekend. None bigger, of course, than Trea Turner, who suffered a hamstring injury that is going to cost him at least six weeks – and, given how much of his game relies on speed, I think it's fair to be concerned that it might limit him in that regard even when he's back sometime in June. | | Among hitters, we also lost Steven Kwan and Wyatt Langford to their own hamstring injuries. They've had very different starts to the season, but both are pretty big losses – in Langford's case, for the potential upside more than actual impact he was making. Keeping Kwan around through his IL stint is a pretty easy call, but I'd also try really hard not to drop Langford; yes, he's been bad so far, but all those reasons you were excited to draft him with a top-100 pick a little more than a month ago are still there; he just has to unlock them. | | And then there's Joe Musgrove, who has struggled through his own awful start and now goes on the IL with an elbow injury coming off his best start. Musgrove has downplayed concerns about the injury, with manager Brian Snitker telling reporters the hope is Musgrove might only miss a couple of starts. I'm not dropping Musgrove, but I'm also not just assuming he'll be back in a couple of weeks with no issues – I don't think you can ever really make that assumption about elbow injuries. | | So, we've got some (more) holes to fill in our lineups ahead of Week 7 of the Fantasy Baseball season. In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got some lineup replacements for both hitters and pitchers to consider, plus all the rest of the news and notable performances you need to know about from this weekend's action. Let's get to it: | | | | Week 7 Preview | | | | The key thing you need to know about Week 7 is that five teams only play five games this week: The Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Braves, and Nationals. That's an awful lot of star power at a disadvantage for Week 7, especially with 11 teams playing seven games. You're not sitting, say, Ronald Acuña or Matt Olson despite their slow starts. But someone like Wilyer Abreu? Yeah, he's probably not making the cut. | | Week 7 waiver targets | | There are two headliners for Week 7, and I wrote about both of them at the top: | | "Christian Scott, SP, Mets (58%) - In his debut, Scott made it through 6.2 innings of work against the Rays Saturday, scattering five hits with six strikeouts while giving up just one earned run. The stuff was mostly as advertised, as he sat in the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball, which played up for eight whiffs on 22 swings thanks to arm ankle; Scott also added six whiffs on his sweeper and four more with slider, while generating enough of a different look to think both can remain effective pitches. One thing we didn't get to see much of from Scott was the splitter - he threw eight of them against a very righty-heavy lineup. Scott has been one of the biggest risers in prospect circles of the past year, and while I'm not sure I love the idea of starting him this week against the Braves, I do think we've seen enough already to slap the "must-roster" label on him." | | "Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians - Manzardo has been absurdly hot down at Triple-A, to the point where it was frankly starting to get a bit embarrassing that he was still down there. It can be tough to make room for a 1B/DH-only player, especially since those haven't been real issues for the Guardians so far this season. However, with Steven Kwan expected to go on the IL after leaving Saturday's game with hamstring tightness, the Guardians have a spot to play with and are giving Manzardo the call. He is hitting .303/.375/.642 with just a 17.2% strikeout rate in Triple-A this season, and has homered seven times in his past 12 games, making the promotion only a matter of time. Manzardo struggled to hit for average at Triple-A last season and this isn't a can't-miss profile - 1B/DH-only types are never "can't miss" - but he's been an incredibly productive player overall in his minor-league career, and absolutely has the talent to be a difference maker. Think a Vinnie Pasquantino or Josh Naylor-esque upside if all goes right." | | Here's the rest of the top players to consider adding ahead of Week 6: | | C: Danny Jansen, Blue Jays (22%)1B: Nolan Schanuel, Angels (32%)2B: Brandon Lowe, Rays (61%) 3B: Tyler Black, Brewers (32%) SS: Vaughn Grissom, Red Sox (44%) OF: Andy Pages, Dodgers (73%); Tommy Pham, White Sox (14%); Joey Loperfido, Astros (53%)SP: John Means, SP, Orioles (53%); Taj Bradley, SP, Rays (46%); Alek Manoah, Blue Jays (46%)RP: Daniel Hudson, Dodgers (27%); Trevor Megill, Brewers (18%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | | | Week 7 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 7: | 1. Rangers @OAK4, @COL3
2. Royals MIL3, @LAA4
3. Cardinals NYM3, @MIL4
4. Mariners @MIN4, OAK3
5. Pirates LAA3, CHC3 | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 7: | 1. Blue Jays @PHI2, MIN3
2. Nationals BAL2, @BOS3
3. Marlins @LAD3, PHI3
4. Cubs SD3, @PIT3
5. Braves BOS2, @NYM3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 7: | | Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers (73%) MIA3, @SD3Nate Lowe, 1B, Rangers (75%) @OAK4, @COL3Jorge Soler, DH, Giants (78%) @PHI1, @COL3, CIN3Jo Adell, OF, Angels (57%) @PIT3, KC4 Ty France , 1B, Mariners (40%) @MIN4, OAK3 | | Week 7 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." | | Top sleeper pitches for Week 7: | | Triston McKenzie, Guardians (76%) vs. DET, at CHWJon Gray, Rangers (77%) at COL Kyle Gibson, Cardinals (41%) vs. NYM, at MILTyler Anderson, Angels (57%) at PIT, vs. KC Luis Gil, Yankees (67%) vs. HOU, at TB | | | Weekend Standouts
| | Good pitching | | Tarik Skubal, Tigers @NYY: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 12 – Friend of the pod Nick Pollack has a phrase for these kinds of outings in his PitcherList nightly recaps: "Aces Gonna Ace." He's been just as good as last season, and you can make a case he deserves to be the No. 1 SP in Fantasy. | | Garrett Crochet, White Sox @STL: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Maybe Crochet is just going to be an unusually high-variance pitcher moving forward, with incredible highs and some frustrating lows … or maybe he just had three bad starts, you know? He didn't rack up the huge whiff numbers in this one, but he did get 19 foul balls on 42 swings, and had no trouble putting guys away for strikeouts. I'm open to the view that Crochet is a sell-high candidate after basically every good start – he's going to have an innings limit of some kind at some point, after all – but we've also seen enough high-level performance from him that I'm willing to buy in as a guy you want in your lineup more often than not. | | Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays @WAS: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Over the past 365 days, Kikuchi has a 3.58 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 176 innings, and that's still including a pretty lousy May of 2023 that sure looks like a different guy at this point. There are other pitchers who have flashed a higher upside, but not many who have been as consistently good over the past, let's say, 11 months. I'm buying high. | | Ronel Blanco, Astros vs. SEA: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Now here's a guy I think you should really consider selling high on. Blanco's been excellent, and I want to be clear about something: He's deserved his results so far, something his 2.48 xERA highlights. But that mark is mostly supported by a .271 expected wOBA on contact, which means Blanco is generating an unbelievable amount of weak contact right now – literally. No pitcher has had a mark even close to that in the StatCast era on anything like a full-season's workload – the closest was Ranger Suarez in 2021, who had a .292 xwOBACON. Kyle Hendricks, probably the premiere soft-contact artist among pitchers, has a .354 career xwOBACON. Blanco may be elite in this regard, but given his just-decent strikeout rate and iffy control, I feel more confident betting on regression than continued success. | | Reese Olson, Tigers @NYY: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – When he keeps his changeup and slider down in the zone consistently, good things happen for Olson. Given his extremely high whiff rates with both pitches, it still feels like there should be more strikeout upside here than we usually get, but that feels a bit nit-picky. He should be rostered in all leagues. | | Nestor Cortes, Yankees vs. DET: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – He's been up and down, but there's definitely been a lot more good than bad from Cortes this season. He's been able to battle through and pitch relatively deep even when he isn't getting great results, and the good starts have been really, really good. It's a 3.72 ERA, with underlying metrics that suggest there might even be a bit of room for that to tick down a bit. I'm a fan. | | Zack Littell, Rays vs. NYM: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Littell is doing a whole lot right these days, including flashing more strikeout upside than I really expected. We knew Littell had elite control, but his 25.6% strikeout rate is one of the biggest surprises of the season – and it's come by leaning heavily on his slider and splitter, which combined for 15 whiffs in this one. If he can keep this up, Littell might be one of the most underrated pitchers in Fantasy with his 74% roster rate and 42% start rate. | | Gavin Stone , Dodgers vs. ATL: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – That's two quality starts in a row and three of his past four for Stone, and yet I remain … unmoved. He's not bad, necessarily, but it's a 12:9 K:BB ratio over 23 innings in that four-start stretch, and he's only had one start with more strikeouts than innings pitched while throwing more than three innings. There's some upside here if he figures out how to get whiffs with his non-changeup pitches more consistently, but I just don't know if it's worth hanging onto Stone for it – I would certainly rather have Christian Scott, to name one pitcher widely available right now. | | Casey Mize , Tigers @NYY: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Mize's fastball is pretty good right now, as he's both throwing it harder and throwing it from an arm slot that helps it play up. And his splitter is pretty terrific, with a 38.6% whiff rate and a ton of grounders when batters do make contact. And then the slider got one whiff on 11 swings and a 22% called-plus-swinging-strike rate in this one. He's a high-3.00s ERA pitcher as is, but if he ever figures out the slider, he could be a real difference maker. I just don't know if there's much reason to believe he's on the cusp of solving that one. | | Charlie Morton, Braves @LAD: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – I didn't expect Morton to turn in a quality start against the Dodgers, so I've got some egg on my face. I remain very underwhelmed by his stuff right now, though he did at least manage a 38% whiff rate with his curveball in this one – still below where it was last season, but an improvement on his season mark. I'm still willing to drop him for Scott, John Means, or Taj Bradley, but if I can't, well, Morton is probably fine to have around. | | Jon Gray, Rangers @KC: 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Gray's control has been terrific of late, with just one walk in his past four starts. For the season, he's now at a 25.9% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, and 2.52 FIP. I think it's just a hot streak, but one I'm willing to ride as long as the schedule permits it. The problem? His next start is in Colorado, and I don't know if I'm ready to trust Jon Gray at Coors Field, even in a revenge game against a bad lineup. | | Andrew Abbott, Reds vs. BAL: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Okay, I really didn't see this one coming. Abbott generated a bunch of weak contact against a very good Orioles lineup, and was able to generate whiffs when he needed them with his sweeper. On the whole, I still just don't think there's enough here to be a consistent Fantasy contributor – we're still talking about an extreme flyball pitcher with about average strikeout and walk rates, after all – but if you didn't drop him before this, you're not doing it now. Let's see if he builds on this one. | | Brady Singer, Royals vs. TEX: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Singer continues to get it done, and I continue to be skeptical. His slider continues to be an excellent pitch, with a 41.1% whiff rate, but … that's his only path to strikeouts, and I just don't believe that'll continue to be enough. He can be useful in a 3.90-ERA kind of way moving forward, but I just don't buy anything close to his current 2.46 mark. | | Chris Paddack, Twins vs. BOS: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Paddack's best pitch in this one was his slider? You sure about that? Paddack threw it 29 times in this one, by far the most in his career, and got five whiffs with it on 12 swings. Paddack's best pitch historically has been his changeup, but it hasn't been effective for him this season, and I have a hard time believing he'll be a useful Fantasy option without it. But if he does rediscover that pitch and has this slider working like this? Well, now that could get interesting. Stay tuned. | | James Paxton, Dodgers vs. ATL: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Another good start from a guy I've said you can drop repeatedly over the past few weeks, and you know what? I stand by it! He had more strikeouts than walks for the first time in four weeks, and it still came out to just three in 6.2 innings. If you started Paxton against the Braves, say thank you, and then walk away. | | Hayden Wesneski, Cubs vs. MIL: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – The thing about sweepers is, when they are on, you can look absolutely dominant. I'm just not sure there's enough here to say this is sustainable for Wesneski. He's taking a smart approach right now, feeding his sweeper and sinker to righties and leaning on the four-seamer on cutter to lefties, but I just don't think there's too much to get excited about outside of the sweeper. | | Cal Quantrill, Rockies @PIT: 7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – This was one of the best starts by any pitcher this weekend, and if Quantrill didn't pitch for the Rockies, I might be interested in it. But 10 whiffs on 99 pitches against a bad lineup, with his next start set for Coors Field? Yeah, I just don't see much reason to chase this. | | Bad Pitching | | Logan Webb, Giants @PHI: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Despite the very good results early on, Webb hasn't been quite right this season, and it's caught up to him over the past two starts. His changeup whiff rate is down below 16% now, and it's been getting hammered, though with similar enough movement, velocity, and spin profiles to last season that I think it probably comes down to execution more than anything being fundamentally wrong with Webb. It's frustrating to watch your ace go through a stretch like this, but I have faith he'll figure it out. | | Tanner Bibee, Guardians vs. LAA: 5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – I've said it a few times already this season, but it just seems like Bibee should be better than he is. He's got good fastball command and three swing-and-miss secondaries, but just seems to have trouble putting hitters away – and his fastball is getting absolutely crushed right now, with a .424 batting average and .712 slugging against. He's gotta figure out a better approach, but right now, I don't think you can view Bibee as a must-start pitcher. | | Bryce Miller, Mariners @HOU: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – The past two starts have looked a lot more like the 2023 version of Miller. When the fastball is dominant, he's unhittable, as he was last time out against the Braves. If it's not, suddenly he looks pretty mortal. Miller put in work this offseason on his sweeper and slider, while also developing a splitter, with the intention of becoming a more well-rounded pitcher, but he hasn't been that the past couple of outings. The fastball is still a terrific pitch, and the splitter has looked really good at times this season. But he's gone away from it the past couple of starts, whether by design or because he didn't have the feel for it, and it's exposed how lacking the rest of his arsenal still is. I still think there's a ton to like about Miller, but he may not be making the leap to ace-dom we hoped for just yet. | | Mackenzie Gore, Nationals vs. TOR: 3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – The defense let him down in this one, but it's still frustrating to see these kinds of starts from a guy we hoped was making the leap. I'm not losing faith in Gore, but I keep waiting for him to establish himself for good, and it's not here. Only five whiffs on 76 pitches here is especially disappointing. | | Reid Detmers , Angels @CLE: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 7 K – Did we fall for it? Were we hoodwinked? Detmers has pulled the trick off before, looking like an ace for a start, a week, even a month, but he's never been able to sustain it, and it's looking like his hot start to the season is another example. He's given up 16 runs in 17.2 innings over his past three starts, with just 17 strikeouts to seven walks. I think Detmers can still be fine moving forward – his 3.24 xERA is one reason to be optimistic – but I just don't know if the command and consistency will ever be there for him, start in and start out. We might've missed a sell-high window. | | Luis Severino , Mets @TB: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 6 K – That window might still be open for Severino, who still has a sub-3.00 ERA after this one, and I'd be trying to move him for any interesting pitcher I could find. Severino still isn't getting strikeouts, instead relying on limiting hard contact for his success. That's all well and good, and it might even prove to be a viable path to success at this point in his career. But I don't see any way Severino can be the guy he used to be with this approach, so I'd still be trying to move him based on name value and surface level numbers. See if someone still thinks he can be a top-30 SP – it's not me. | | Aaron Civale, Rays vs. NYM: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – This is what happened after he got traded to the Rays last year: They found a way to boost his strikeout rate, but Civale got hit so hard that it just didn't matter. In 17 starts with the Rays dating back to late summer, Civale has a solid 3.94 FIP with 10.6 K/9, but his ERA is an unusable 5.71 in 82 innings. Maybe he figures out how to fix this issue, but the fact that it's carried over from last season makes it harder to buy into. Civale is droppable. | | Hitters | | Shohei Ohtani, DH, Dodgers – Here's his 162-game pace right now: 46 homers, 139 runs, 116 RBI, and 32 steals. Oh, and he's hitting .364/.426/.685 right now. With the lowest strikeout rate of his career. While recovering and rehabbing from elbow surgery. This is absurd, and yes, I have probably been underrating him in my Trade Values Chart – he was my No. 11 player in Roto last week. That needs to go up. | | Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates – Those of you who passed on Elly De La Cruz for the cheaper Cruz in drafts have probably been kicking yourselves so far this season, but we're seeing some signs of life. Cruz had two homers in three games against the Rockies this weekend and has his average exit velocity up to 92.8 mph, a career-high mark. He's still striking out way too often, especially against lefties, but I still think there's a viable buy-low window here. | | Jake Cronenworth, 1B, Padres – Entering play last Sunday, Cronenworth's OPS sat at .751, another underwhelming mark after two hugely disappointing seasons. What a difference a week makes, because now he has an .849 mark, after homering three times in his past seven games and going 6 for 15 this weekend against the Diamondbacks. And it might not just be a random hot streak – Cronenworth has been posting his best quality of contact marks since 2020 this season. This might be a buy-high situation. | | Brett Baty, 3B, Mets – The fundamentals here are still pretty disappointing, despite a two-homer game Friday against the Rays. Baty has cut his strikeout rate down to just 19.1%, but that's where the good news ends for Baty, whose quality of contact has collapsed, with his average exit velocity sitting at just 85.3 mph and his ground ball rate actually increasing from last season. I don't want to give up hope on Baty, especially coming off a two-homer game, but he needs to start giving us real signs of life beyond that. | | News and notes | | Gerrit Cole threw 15 pitches off a mound Saturday, his first bullpen session since landing on the IL with elbow inflammation. The hope remains that he'll be able to return around the middle of June. | | Evan Phillips was placed on the IL with a right hamstring strain, retroactive to May 4. Daniel Hudson figures to be the most likely candidate to step up for the Dodgers in the ninth inning. | | Wyatt Langford was placed on the IL with a right hamstring strain and is expected to miss 3-4 weeks. I would hope I have a player with less upside to drop – there aren't many with more upside than Langford – but in leagues with no IL spots, I could see being desperate enough to drop him. | | Mariners manager Scott Servais said George Kirby has been dealing with a right knee issue. Servias added it isn't considered a major problem, but it is the reason Kirby was pulled after just 88 pitches on Friday. | | Cody Bellinger (ribs) and Seiya Suzuki (oblique) did defensive drills on Saturday. Both are inching towards rehab assignments and could be back next week if all goes well. | | Royce Lewis is on target to return around the original eight-week timeline in late May. He's been on the IL since Opening Day with a quad injury. | | Kodai Senga completed a 32-pitch live batting practice on Saturday. He's hoping to return from his shoulder strain when first eligible on May 27. | | Paul Sewald is expected back Tuesday. He's spent the entire season on the IL with an oblique injury, and I do expect him to return as the Diamondbacks closer, so sit Kevin Ginkel. | | Justin Steele is on track to return from his hamstring injury Monday against the Padres, which would make him a two-start pitcher against the Padres and Pirates. I'm starting him. | | Steven Kwan was removed Saturday with left hamstring tightness and was out of the lineup Sunday. He's likely heading for the IL, it seems. | | Ryan Pepiot was removed from Sunday's game after being struck on the shin by a comebacker. X-rays came back negative, but I'd be hesitant to start him this week without more details. | | Bobby Miller threw a bullpen session Friday, his first time since going on the IL with shoulder inflammation back on April 13. | | Clayton Kershaw threw his first bullpen on Friday as well, his first time throwing off a mound since undergoing shoulder surgery in the offseason. He's not expected to return until after the All-Star break. | | Max Scherzer is still in a holding pattern while waiting for the soreness in his right thumb to subside. | | Nick Pivetta will make his next start with the Red Sox, and is slated to return Wednesday against the Braves. I'd prefer not to start him against that matchup if I can avoid it. | | Bryan Woo struck out six over five shutout innings in his third rehab start Saturday at Triple-A. He should be closing in on a return, which could come this week. | | Pete Fairbanks and Brandon Lowe will both begin their rehab assignments at Triple-A on Tuesday, with the hope they can return by next week. | | Yasmani Grandal was activated from the IL on Friday and, as a result, Henry Davis was optioned back to Triple-A. Davis was batting .162 with 35% strikeout rate | | It looks like Spencer Turnbull has been shifted to the Phillies bullpen. He's not an automatic drop, given how good he was in the rotation, but he's not a must-stash, either. | | Dylan Carlson returned to the Cardinals Sunday and was batting fifth in the lineup. | | Guardians outfield prospect Chase DeLauter (who had a big spring training) was diagnosed with a fractured bone in his left foot and is without a timeline to return to the Double-A lineup. He has had other foot issues in his career, so that's concerning. | | Placed on the IL this weekend: | | Nathan Eovaldi with a strained right groin | | Byron Buxton with right knee inflammation | | Patrick Bailey was placed on the 7-day concussion IL. Tom Murphy and Blake Sabol are likely to fill in | | Steven Matz with a lower-back strain | | | | | | | | The Golazo Show | | The Golazo Network | Catch coverage of the UEFA Europa League Quarterfinals this Thursday at 2 PM ET on the Golazo Show, airing live on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, our free, 24/7 channel dedicated exclusively to global soccer coverage.
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