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Friday, October 27, 2023 |
We got a Thursday Night Football game last night that was genuinely good for pretty much all of the Fantasy-relevant players involved -- James Cook and his 8.3 PPR points being the notable exception. But we got 33.1 points from Josh Allen, 16 from Stefon Diggs, 23.3 from Gabe Davis, 17.5 from Dalton Kincaid, 17.9 from Rachaad White, 16.4 points from Chris Godwin, and 12.9 from Mike Evans , who salvaged what would have otherwise been a pretty awful day with a late touchdown. |
Basically, if you were deciding between someone last night and someone Sunday or Monday, you probably didn't make the wrong decision defaulting to the TNF crew. And if you did make the wrong decision ... well, that'll end up being because your other options just went off, and you can live with that. But it was nice to see our Fantasy players do well even in a game where the Under ultimately just barely hit. |
In the rest of today's newsletter, I've got more thoughts on what we saw Thursday, along with updates on all the injuries you need to know about heading into the weekend, plus my thoughts on Sunday's main DFS slate. And we'll be back Sunday morning with everything else you need before you lock in your lineups for Week 8: |
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TNF recap: Bills 24, Buccaneers 18 |
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- The big takeaway: This ended up being a close game, but watching it, it felt like the Bills were playing offense on Easy mode, while the Buccaneers had toggled "All-Madden" on. The best example of that was the Buccaneers' scoring drive to cut it to six points late in the fourth quarter. It was a 17-play drive that saw the Bucs pick up multiple fourth downs on penalties and ultimately chewed up seven valuable minutes of clock time. The Buccaneers got into the end zone, but it never felt like a sure thing that they'd get there, while the Bills seemed to move the ball at ease. Part of that was a game plan that saw Josh Allen getting the ball out quickly – at one point, the broadcast showed a graphic saying it was the quickest time to throw of Allen's career – and that surprisingly benefited … Gabe Davis? Davis' nine catches were a career-high, while his 9.7 yards per catch was his second-lowest for any game with more than four catches. Davis is generally a downfield-only target, and I don't think this changed that, though it would be an interesting wrinkle to account for if they did use him more this way moving forward.
- Injuries: Josh Allen briefly left this game to be looked at in the blue medical tent, but he was able to return without missing a snap. I wonder if the plan to get the ball out of his hands quicker was a result of his lingering shoulder issue?
- Winner: Rachaad White. I think there's a real risk of White losing his grip on the lead rushing role for the Buccaneers, because he just hasn't been very effective at that aspect of the game dating back to his rookie season. However, I think it would be pretty unwise for them to phase him out of the game plan entirely, because he really is a very good playmaker in the passing game, and they're doing a good job of getting him more involved in that way. He has 13 catches over the past two games, and it's been the one way the Bucs have been able to simulate having a running game. I don't think that's going away.
- Loser: James Cook. I was skeptical about Cook for most of the offseason, mostly because I just didn't trust the Bills to use him in a way that would make him a viable weekly starter for Fantasy. And it's starting to look like that might have been right. Cook is clearly the most dynamic back the Bills have had since drafting Josh Allen, but they keep replacing him near the goal line, with Latavius Murray playing five of six snaps inside the 10-yard line Thursday. And the passing game role hasn't been consistent enough to make up for that; Cook had just one target in this one, his third time with either one or zero targets in his past five games. Cook has the skill set to be a must-start Fantasy option, but the role just isn't there for him to be more than a frustrating, low-end RB2 right now, unfortunately.
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Week 8 injury updates |
Quarterback |
The most interesting note from the Thursday injury reports is that the Cardinals removed Kyler Murray (knee) from their practice report. It doesn't mean he's going to play in Week 8 against the Ravens , but it does mean he's practicing without limitations. Given the matchup and his limited reps (Murray only began practicing last week), I'd bet against him starting this week, but he's clearly on the cusp of returning, potentially next week against the Browns – though that's an awfully tough landing spot, too. |
Ryan Tannehill (ankle) has yet to practice this week, and while coach Mike Vrabel has pointedly refused to rule his quarterback out, it seems all but certain he is going to miss at least one game, and maybe more. Will Levis, the team's second-round pick this year, is expected to get the start if Tannehill is out, but with Malik Willis possibly set to have a role as well, it makes it impossible to trust either unless you are truly desperate in a 2QB league. |
Brock Purdy (concussion) was upgraded to a limited participant in practice Thursday, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to play. It's a good sign for his chances, but he has to be cleared through the concussion protocol to get on the field, so I'd still lean toward Sam Darnold getting the start for the 49ers. If Purdy does play, it's an upgrade for the offense as a whole, and Purdy is in the mid-range QB2 if he plays. |
Jimmy Garoppolo (back) was limited as the Raiders opened the week in preparation for Monday's game against the Lions . He's expected to return to the starting lineup after a one-game absence, and certainly gives the offense more upside than Brian Hoyer did last week. |
Justin Fields (thumb) remains doubtful for Week 8 as he has yet to return to practice. At this point, I'm hoping he can return for Week 9 against the Saints, though if the Bears opted to hold him out until Week 10 against the Panthers four days later, it wouldn't be a huge surprise. |
Daniel Jones (neck) continues to be limited at practice, but he still hasn't been cleared for practice, and he isn't going to play until that happens. Tyrod Taylor seems likely to start this week against the Jets , and while it's a tough matchup, Taylor certainly hasn't looked like any kind of downgrade from Jones the past few games. |
Deshaun Watson (shoulder) is not going to play in Week 8 as he continues to focus on rehabbing from his lingering shoulder injury. |
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Running back |
Saquon Barkley (elbow) has been limited at practice each day this week, but looks like he's going to be able to play through the injury. He hyperextended his left elbow last week and might play with a brace on his arm, but shouldn't be too limited otherwise. |
Kenneth Walker (calf) has missed each of the first two days of practice this week, which definitely isn't a good sign for his chances of playing. It doesn't mean Walker isn't going to play, but at this point you've got to prepare for the possibility that he won't be able to go this week, and we may not know until Sunday one way or the other. Go see if Zach Charbonnet (58% rostered) is available in your league, because he would probably be a top-15 RB even in a tough matchup against the Browns if Walker is sidelined. |
Alvin Kamara (illness) was able to practice without limitations Thursday after sitting out Wednesday's sessions, so he should be good to go this week, and he's a top-five RB for me. |
Raheem Mostert (ankle) was upgraded to a limited participant in practice Thursday after missing Wednesday's session, a good sign for his chances of playing. Mostert rarely practices Wednesday, so hopefully this was more like just a de facto veteran's day off. |
Aaron Jones (hamstring) was upgraded to a limited participation in practice Thursday, a good sign for his chances of playing against the Vikings . Of course, he played last week and was on a snap count, so there's no guarantee it won't be the same thing this week. I'm leaning toward starting him, but for what it's worth, I did go with James Cook on Thursday night ahead of Jones. |
Jerome Ford (ankle) hasn't practiced this week as expected, but Kareem Hunt (thigh) did get upgraded to a limited practice Thursday and should be on track to play against the Seahawks . Hunt is an RB3 as the expected lead back assuming he plays, while Pierre Strong is more like an RB4 for PPR scoring. |
David Montgomery (ribs) didn't practice Thursday as the Lions opened up preparations for Monday's game against the Raiders. At this point, I'm not expecting him to play, which keeps Jahmyr Gibbs in the RB1 conversation for Week 8. |
Zack Moss (elbow/heel) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice after missing Wednesday's. That seemingly puts him in line to play this week, though I do expect his role to be a little more limited than it has been even if he is healthy after Jonathan Taylor looked so good last week. Moss should still have a role, but it might shift to more like a 60-40 split in favor of Taylor. Or, at least, it should. |
Roschon Johnson (concussion) has practiced without limitations the past two days and looks likely to make his return from a two-game absence. But what kind of role is he returning to? I'm expecting Johnson to be the No. 2 back behind D'Onta Foreman, in a similar role he was working in behind Khalil Herbert before his injury. There's a chance Johnson is the lead back, the way it looked like we might be trending before his concussion, but D'Onta Foreman was so good last week that I have to assume the Bears will defer to him first. |
Jerick McKinnon (groin) was a full participant in practice Wednesday, but he was downgraded to a DNP Thursday, which is a concern. The question here is whether he was downgraded because he suffered an injury Wednesday, or if this was more of a de facto veteran's day off. We'll find out Friday, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be in line for a bigger role, while Isiah Pacheco could have a bigger passing downs role for Week 8 against the Broncos. |
Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell (hamstring) got up to a limited practice Thursday, after sitting out Wednesday's session. That's a good sign for an intriguing young player who opened the season on IR. Mitchell is still trying to carve out a role, and he's worth stashing only in deeper leagues right now. |
Miles Sanders (shoulder) has practiced in full each day this week and looks like he'll be active. What kind of role he'll have remains to be seen, as he has struggled to make plays so far in this offense, and seemed to be losing opportunities to Chuba Hubbard before the bye. One thing that could help Sanders? Laviska Shenault, a wide receiver who has been lining up at RB at times this season, hasn't practiced due to an ankle injury and seems unlikely to play. Sanders remains an RB3, with Hubbard a few spots behind him in my rankings. I'd prefer to avoid both. |
Wide receiver |
The Dolphins breathed a huge sigh of relief Thursday, as Tyreek Hill (hip) was back at practice on a limited basis Thursday and told reporters he is planning on playing against the Patriots. Jaylen Waddle (back) has been limited both days but seems likely to play through the injury – it's a little concerning since he was obviously not 100% while playing through it in Week 7, but I'd still view Waddle as a WR2/3 with plenty of upside even with the injury. |
Deebo Samuel (shoulder) continues to sit out practice and looks likely to miss his second game in a row, as expected. With the 49ers on bye in Week 9, he's aiming for a Week 10 return against Jacksonville. |
Tyler Lockett (hamstring) still hasn't practiced this week, a concerning sign for his chances of playing. He's been dealing with the injury since last week, and he's certainly the exact kind of veteran who could play without practicing. However, at this point, you've got to be preparing for the possibility that he won't play. |
DK Metcalf (ribs/hip), on the other hand, has practiced in full both days this week and will make his return from a one-game absence. |
Curtis Samuel (foot) was upgraded to a limited participant in practice Thursday after sitting out Wednesday's session, a sign that he has a chance to play. He's in that WR4 range if you need a flex. |
Diontae Johnson (hamstring) was added to the injury report Thursday, which is never a good sign for a player who just came back from IR last week. As of Thursday evening, we have no details, so it might just be a normal rest day as part of Johnson's management of the initial hamstring injury, but obviously it feels ominous to see him added to the report after practicing without issue Wednesday. At this point, I'm making preparations to not have Johnson available this week, unfortunately. |
Josh Palmer (knee) has been unable to practice Wednesday and Thursday, putting him very much at risk of missing this week's game against the Bears. That's a bummer, because the Bears are a great matchup and Palmer has actually been pretty excellent in Mike Williams' absence, with 12 catches for 270 yards over the past three games. |
Robert Woods (foot) has been unable to practice this week, while teammate Tank Dell (concussion) has been a full participant. That could put Dell in line for a bigger role in what is a very winnable matchup against the Panthers, and he'll be in the WR3/4 range for Week 8. |
Zay Jones (knee) continues to miss practice and looks like he's on pace for his third straight missed game and fifth out of eight games overall as a result of this injury. He's still worth stashing, but with a bye in Week 9, I understand if you don't necessarily have the roster space for him this week. |
Odell Beckham (shoulder) was added to the practice report with a limited participation Thursday. Beckham has had trouble staying healthy this season, and this is a new mid-week injury, so I wouldn't be surprised if he sat this one out. He shouldn't be rostered in most Fantasy leagues at this point, even when healthy. |
Tight end |
Darren Waller (hamstring) has been limited both days this week, which hopefully means he'll be good to go this week against a Jets defense that has been the worst in football at defending tight ends so far. |
T.J. Hockenson (foot) was able to work up to a limited practice Thursday, a good sign after he sat out the team's previous game. As long as he's active, I'm starting him this week and every week. |
Juwan Johnson (calf) has been limited in both days of practice so far this week, giving him a chance to make his return from a two-game absence. Which might be bad news for Taysom Hill , who has emerged as a legitimately useful Fantasy option at tight end in Johnson's absence, running plenty of routes and catching 11 passes over the past two games. It's a lot tougher to trust Hill if Johnson plays, and he's more like a TD-or-bust TE2. |
Luke Musgrave (ankle) hasn't practiced this week and seems unlikely to play this week. The Packers don't have an obvious Fantasy replacement for Musgrave, who probably shouldn't be in your lineup at this point anyway. |
Top DFS picks |
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Based on my projections and analysis for Week 8, here are my top stack targets and my favorite plays at each position, with an eye on tournament plays: |
Top Stacks |
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No team has been worse at defending the deep pass than the Commanders, who have allowed a league-high seven touchdowns on passes of more than 15 air yards past the line of scrimmage, while their 25 completions allowed on those passes is tied for the third-most in the league. Jalen Hurts against this defense feels almost as unfair as this Eagles pass rush against Sam Howell. I love pairing Hurts with DeVonta Smith, whose recent struggles figure to make him a lower-rostered option even with the great matchup. |
Top QBs |
DraftKings |
- Jalen Hurts @WAS $8200
- Russell Wilson vs. KC $5300
- Sam Darnold vs. CIN $4300
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Okay, so Sam Darnold isn't actually one of my three favorite options on the slate, but he is the starting quarterback with the lowest price, and that's gotta count for something in a tournament. Will Levis is only $100 more, but with the talk of Malik Willis having a role, it's harder to justify him as your min-priced upside dart throw. As I wrote earlier in the week, I think there's a decent chance this 49ers offense takes a big step back with Darnold replacing Brock Purdy, but he's also still surrounded by tons of talent, including three different players who could house any decently thrown pass. As a tournament dart throw, there's conceivable upside here. |
FanDuel |
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I think most of you might be surprised to see me touting Burrow against a tough 49ers matchup, but I do think the 49ers have benefited from a very weak schedule, at least to a certain degree; Dak Prescott is the only good QB they've really shut down, and Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford have both passed for 300-plus yards against them. Burrow needs to play better than he has so far this season, but I figure most DFS players will be fading him, and I like the idea of stacking him with his two elite wide receivers for what could be a high-upside, low-rostered trio. |
Top RBs |
DraftKings |
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Zack Moss returned to practice Thursday, which makes it less likely that Taylor gets the backfield entirely to himself, and the Saints represent a pretty tough matchup, ranking fourth in Fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. Though I do want to point out that they're not as dominant as that might make it seem, as they rank more around the middle of the pack in both rushing yards and carries allowed; they've only allowed two touchdowns to running backs, which is really where they stand out right now. Taylor looked like himself for the first time last week, and while that doesn't guarantee it'll carry over to this week, it's a bet I'm making pretty much across the board – Taylor is going to be a top-12 RB the rest of the way in my eyes. |
FanDuel |
- Tony Pollard vs. LAR $7600
- Bijan Robinson @TEN $7100
- Breece Hall @NYG $7200
- Alvin Kamara @IND $8300
- Jonathan Taylor vs. NO $7100
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I'm wondering if anyone is going to be scared off Bijan Robinson after his limited role last week. I'm not, and I'm perfectly fine trusting him against a Titans defense that was struggling against the run in the two games before the bye and now figures to take a step back across the board after trading star safety Kevin Byard . Robinson remains one of the best players in Fantasy in my eyes, and I'm not worried about him at all. I guess this is me planting a flag. |
Top WRs |
DraftKings |
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The Saints' issues near the end zone are well documented, and you can see them clearly in one number: Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are tied for the fourth-most end-zone targets among all wide receivers this season with seven, and they each have one touchdown to show for it. Now, of course, end-zone targets tend to be caught at a relatively low rate, but still, two for 14 is bad – it's 14.3%, while the league as a whole completes 35% of passes into the end zone. Derek Carr has his issues, but there should be regression coming. |
FanDuel |
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I'm going sort of chalky at the wide receiver position at FanDuel, which means I need to find other places to save money. The star wide receivers have been worth paying up for this season. |
Top TEs |
DraftKings |
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McBride hasn't done a ton for Fantasy players to take note of in his career so far, but he was a second-rounder last season who was very productive in college and had good measurables at the combine. With Zach Ertz on IR with a quad injury, McBride could be the No. 2 option in this offense moving forward, and his price doesn't reflect that yet. |
FanDuel |
- Dallas Goedert @WAS $6200
- T.J. Hockenson @GB $6500
- Trey McBride vs. BAL $4700
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My preference is just to go cheap with McBride, but if I'm not doing that, I like rocking with Hockenson and his near-guaranteed eight-plus targets – he has at least eight in all but one game this season. He also has a touchdown in just one game so far, and more than 10.2 yards per catch in just one, so it's a volume play. But it's the kind of volume where he just needs one touchdown or one big play to be a huge value. |
Sample DraftKings lineup |
- QB Jalen Hurts @WAS $8200
- RB Breece Hall @NYG $5900
- RB Emari Demercado vs. BAL $4800
- WR A.J. Brown @WAS $8000
- WR DeVonta Smith @WAS $6700
- WR Tank Dell @CAR $4900
- TE Trey McBride vs. BAL $2800
- FLEX Zach Charbonnet vs. CLE $4300
- DST Eagles @WAS $4300
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Sample FanDuel lineup |
- QB Jalen Hurts @WAS $9200
- RB Breece Hall @NYG $7200
- RB Jaleel McLaughlin vs. KC $5000
- WR Ja'Marr Chase @SF $8500
- WR Tee Higgins @SF $6800
- WR DeVonta Smith vs. WAS $6900
- TE Trey McBride vs. BAL $4700
- FLEX Drake London @TEN $6700
- DST Eagles @WAS $5000
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| | | | | | Saturday on CBS, a full day of college football kicks off with Big Ten action between Indiana and #10 Penn State. Then at 3:30 PM ET, the SEC on CBS features #1 Georgia facing Florida. It's all coming up on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live | | Sunday, it's another NFL on CBS doubleheader. The early games feature Trevor Lawrence and the Jag on the road against the Steelers. Later, Burrow's Bengals try to stop McCaffrey and the 49ers. It all begins at 12 PM ET with JB and the guys on The NFL Today. Watch mon CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Tune In |
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