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Friday, November 3, 2023 |
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The Steelers delivered a 20-16 win over the Titans Thursday night, with neither young quarterback in this one lighting it up. And that's probably going to be a theme in Week 9, because, as I catalogued in Thursday's newsletter, we're likely down 14 Week 1 starting quarterbacks from this week's action. So, there might be a few shootouts if we're lucky, but don't be surprised if we have a week of very low scores coming. The Steelers and Titans already just inched under the 36.5 over/under last night. |
In the rest of today's newsletter, I've got more thoughts on what we saw Thursday, along with updates on all the injuries you need to know about heading into the weekend, plus my thoughts on Sunday's main DFS slate. And we'll be back Sunday morning with everything else you need before you lock in your lineups for Week 9 ahead of the incredibly exciting Dolphins-Chiefs matchup at 9:30 am ET to kick off Sunday's action: |
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TNF recap: Steelers 20, Titans 16 |
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- The big takeaway: Will Levis is mortal after all. The thing I always like to remind myself about rookies, especially when they come out super-hot to start their careers, is that the most important thing isn't just how you look initially, but how you look when there's some film on you. Defenses will adjust, and you learn more about young players from how they adjust to the adjustments, and now the ball is in Levis' court. The Steelers were able to consistently pressure him with four rushers, and it led to some sped-up decision-making and some poor throws -- he threw a pick right at the end zone to end the game but probably should've had a few more prior to that, if we're being honest. I don't want to be too hard on Levis, because I still think he's been pretty impressive, but Thursday was definitely a comedown after his incredible debut last week. For what it's worth -- I don't think Mike Vrabel is surveying Fantasy analysts' opinions -- I still think the Titans should roll with Levis moving forward even with Ryan Tannehill is healthy. He raises the whole ceiling of this offense.
- Injuries: Treylon Burks suffered a scary injury late in the game and had to be carted off the field. The broadcast reported Burks had movement in all of his extremities, so hopefully it wasn't as bad at it looked. Burks was able to leave the locker room under his own power, per reports.
- Winner: Diontae Johnson. I mean, how could it be anyone else after Johnson finally scored a touchdown, his first since 2021? He's looked really good over the past two weeks, and what was really nice to see was the Steelers going right back to Johnson for the score after he seemingly dropped a touchdown on the previous play (on a play that was nullified by a penalty). Johnson caught seven of nine passes for 90 yards and the score this week, and he now has 23 targets over the past two games. That sounds like vintage Diontae Johnson, but it might actually be even better than that, because he's running his routes a little deeper and earning a few more downfield targets than he has in the past. That he's still earning targets at a very high rate is an incredibly positive sign. Johnson might be a legit must-start WR2 moving forward.
- Loser: George Pickens . And here's the downside of Johnson's usage. I'll be very interested to see what Pickens' route data looks like in this one, because it seemed like that he was once again running almost nothing but deep, downfield routes. He just hasn't proven he can consistently earn targets with that kind of usage, and it's incredibly frustrating to see the Steelers revert right back to having Pickens run those routes after his usage changed dramatically with Johnson out -- can someone tell Matt Canada he's allowed to have receivers on his team who run both deep routes and shorter routes? As things stand, Pickens looks like he's back to being a touchdown-or-bust WR3/4. He should be more than that, though. And, of course, it hurts even more because Pickens couldn't get his second foot down on what absolutely should have been a touchdown Thursday night.
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Week 9 injury updates |
Quarterback |
Daniel Jones (neck) has practiced without limitations so far this week and will start against the Raiders assuming he avoids a setback. Tyrod Taylor (ribs) is a candidate to go on IR, so Tommy DeVito will be the backup here for the foreseeable future. Jones will be without his top target, Darren Waller, for at least Week 9, and likely longer. |
Kyler Murray was removed from the injury report Wednesday, but we're still not sure if that means he's going to start this week. It seems likely to be rookie Clayton Tune, but we should know at some point Friday -- and Murray should be back for Week 10 against the Falcons at the latest. |
Deshaun Watson (shoulder) did more work at practice Thursday, with reporters noting he didn't seem to be wearing any protective gear on his right shoulder. That doesn't mean he's going to play this week, but it looks like he has a real chance. The problem is, after seeing him clearly rush back for Week 7 only to struggle before leaving early, there's no way you can use him for Fantasy, and it's hard to say his presence would even be a positive for Amari Cooper at this point. Watson has to prove he's healthy and effective before you have faith. |
Matthew Stafford (thumb) hasn't practiced this week, and while he hasn't been ruled out, I'd guess he's more likely to sit than play this week. The Rams might list him as questionable with a game-time decision even if he doesn't practice Friday, but I'm gearing up for Brett Rypien to start this week -- pushing Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua down the WR2/3 range and dragging expectations for the entire offense down overall. |
Justin Fields (thumb) continues to miss practice and he's already been ruled out for Week 9 against the Saints. Tyson Bagent will start in his place again, and he's just a low-end QB2. Hopefully Fields will be back for Week 10 against the Panthers, though that game being on a Thursday is kind of a complicating factor, giving him fewer days to get back. |
As expected, Josh Allen (shoulder) returned to practice without limitations Thursday, and he'll be good to go for Sunday night's game against the Bengals. |
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Running back |
Dameon Pierce (ankle) missed both Wednesday and Thursday's practices, putting him at real risk of sitting out this week's game, seemingly. Go make sure Devin Singletary isn't rostered in your league, because he'll be in the RB2/3 range of the rankings if Pierce can't go. |
Gus Edwards (toe) was a full participant in practice Thursday after missing Wednesday's session, so it seems like that was just a false alarm. Edwards is an RB2 in a tough matchup against the Seahawks. |
Emari Demercado (toe) missed both Wednesday and Thursday's practice sessions and seems like a long shot to play at this point. Demercado's injury flew under the radar Sunday, but it probably explains why Keaontay Ingram played 38% of the snaps after not logging a snap the prior week. Ingram will likely be the lead back for the Cardinals against the Browns, and he's a risky start in a tough matchup. |
Raheem Mostert (ankle) got up to a limited practiced Thursday, as he's following the same path as last week. He should be good to go and is a high-end RB2, albeit in a tough matchup. |
Joe Mixon (chest) was upgraded to a full practice Thursday after being limited Wednesday, so it doesn't sound like there's any risk of him missing this week's game. He's an RB2 with a tough matchup. |
Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins. Edwards-Helaire doesn't play a ton, but there might be an extra carry or two available for Isiah Pacheco this week -- CEH hasn't had more than two carries in a game since Week 5. |
Wide receiver |
Drake London (groin) was unable to practice yet again Thursday, and it's not looking good for his chances. He doesn't necessarily have to practice to play, and it seems likely Arthur Smith will play coy about London's chances of playing up until game-time. But at this point, I'd bet against him playing. |
DK Metcalf (hip) didn't practice Thursday after being limited Wednesday, however I'm not sure there's anything to be too concerned about here, as Metcalf has spoken with the media this week and routinely gets practice time off. Just keep an eye on any reports Friday in case this was an unreported setback. |
Josh Downs (knee) was added to the injury report Thursday, and that mid-week addition is always ominous. We don't have any details, but the concern is obviously that he suffered some kind of injury during practice that might limit his availability for Sunday. Downs is a solid WR2/3 if he plays, but you should be making a contingency plan just in case now. |
Josh Palmer (knee) did not practice Thursday as the Chargers opened up the week of practice, and it's look pretty questionable for his chances of playing. That's not a guarantee, obviously, but given the Monday kickoff, we'll need some certainty that Palmer will play before Sunday. He would be in the WR3/4 range if he does play, but the injury clearly limited him in Week 8, so there's some risk of the same this time around even if he does play. |
Curtis Samuel (toe) hasn't practiced this week and seems likely to be out. It still doesn't make Jahan Dotson a must-start option, but it helps his chances -- and it makes Jamison Crowder an interesting cheap DFS play after he had seven catches for 95 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles last week. |
DJ Chark (elbow) was upgraded to a limited participant in practice Thursday, a good sign for his chances of playing this week. That's not great news for Jonathan Mingo, who had his best game last week and might have had a chance to truly break out if Chark was out. Mingo is a low-end starter either way, but I'd like him more in the WR4 range if Chark was out. |
Robert Woods (foot) is expected to miss his second game in a row after missing both days in practice so far. We'll likely see Noah Brown fill in for Woods again, though Nico Collins and Tank Dell should still be the top options in the passing game -- though as we saw last week, that's not necessarily a guarantee in an offense that has emphasized spreading the ball around. |
DeVante Parker (concussion) hasn't practiced this week and seems unlikely to play. With Kendrick Bourne (knee) out for the season, we're expecting to see more of Demario Douglas , the interesting rookie who is worth stashing if you have the bench space. It could also open up more opportunities for JuJu Smith-Schuster, though given reports earlier in the season about his lingering knee troubles, he might be limited more by that than any competition. |
Tight end |
Darren Waller (hamstring) won't play in Week 9 against the Patriots, and coach Brian Daboll acknowledged in a press conference Thursday that Waller might be a candidate go on IR , which would keep him out for four games, at minimum. It seems like Waller is going to miss multiple weeks at this point, a frustrating outcome for a guy who never really got going like we hoped he would between a slow start for the offense as a whole and then Jones' injury. |
David Njoku (ankle) was limited in practice Thursday, an improvement from the prior week. He's in the touchdown-or-bust range of tight ends if he plays. |
Top DFS picks |
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Based on my projections and analysis for Week 9, here are my top stack targets and my favorite plays at each position, with an eye on tournament plays: |
Top Stacks |
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There aren't a ton of obvious options for stacking this week, what with all of the backup quarterbacks out there, plus some of the best offenses in the NFL not on the main slate. That leaves us with the explosive Eagles in a tough matchup or a couple of less obvious – and less expensive -- options. |
Top QBs |
DraftKings |
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If you want to go cheap at the QB position this week, I think O'Connell is probably the best option. He wasn't great in his first start, completing 24 of 39 passes for 238 yards (6.1 yards per attempt) and no touchdowns, and he probably isn't going to bring much to the table as a runner. However, he has multiple very good playmakers in the passing game, including one of the best No. 1 WRs in the game and a reliable dump-off option in Josh Jacobs. To a certain extent, this is a vibes-based play, too – the Raiders could see a bump in the aftermath of Josh McDaniels' firing, as there is evidence of a post-firing bump in the NFL. |
I'll note, I also think Jaren Hall is an intriguing punt option at the QB positon. He's got good playmakers around him as well (though, I'd argue worse than O'Connell's) and should make some plays with his legs. But he's also $300 more than O'Connell. |
FanDuel |
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The Panthers don't seem like a great matchup for QBs in Fantasy, but I think that's kind of misleading. They've allowed the 15th-most points per game to opposing QBs, but that's on the second-fewest pass attempts; on a per-attempt basis, they've allowed the fifth-highest touchdown rate and 11th-highest yards per attempt. Minshew has thrown at least 40 passes in three of his four starts, so while the Colts might be able to get out to an early lead and sit on the ball with the running game, I think the upside for Minshew is worth chasing if you want to save some money. He's my No. 8 QB for the entire week but only QB22 in price on FanDuel. |
Top RBs |
DraftKings |
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The question with Kamara is, does he have upside separate from the outrageous volume he's currently seeing. Kamara has at least 21 touches in each of his first five games – including a position-best 39 receptions in just five games – but he really hasn't been very efficient, with a career-low yards per carry and yards per target. The Giants are a good matchup, and Kamara brings a very high floor thanks to his workload. But he's also the most expensive player on both sites at running back. To be worth that price, you probably need multiple touchdowns or big plays – or, ideally, some of the latter leading to some of the former. |
FanDuel |
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I've written about why I'm still in on Pollard multiple times this week , and his price is shockingly low at FanDuel this week – he's RB4 on DraftKings, but just RB14 on FanDuel. It's a tough matchup against the Eagles, obviously, and even with the low price, Pollard is likely to be pretty low-rostered in tournaments. This is still a very good offense that should give Pollard some scoring opportunities, and he did have six catches on eight targets the last time he faced the Eagles – that could be one way Dallas tries to counter the Eagles pass rush. I like him as a contrarian play. |
Top WRs |
DraftKings |
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Olave is another player I've written about a few times this week, and I definitely believe we're going to see better days ahead of him. He's second in the NFL in air yards, but he and Derek Carr are leaving a lot of points on the field. But the thing about DFS is, when a player's situation and opportunities are still valuable but the production hasn't been there, that usually means their price is going to go down, which makes it even easier to buy in. I still believe Olave is arguably one of the 12 best wide receivers in Fantasy, but he's only 13th in price on a slate without, among others, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen. I'm buying him in season-long, and I'm buying him in DFS against a Bears defense that is likely still pretty bad. |
FanDuel |
- Chris Olave vs. CHI $6900
- Zay Flowers vs. SEA $6100
- Davante Adams vs. NYG $8000
- A.J. Brown vs. DAL $9000
- Tank Dell vs. TB $5800
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Flowers is having a really interesting rookie season, with a lot of volume in a very good offense but not all that much to show for it so far. Partially, that's because he's had a lot of weeks where the Ravens are drawing up short, quick targets for him that don't necessarily have a ton of value. He's also been targeted 16 times on throws 15-plus yards down the field, catching nine of them, but doesn't have a touchdown on any of those throws yet. Flowers is running cold on touchdown luck; if and when that changes, he's going to have some huge games. |
Top TEs |
DraftKings |
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Bellinger? Who doesn't have more than one target or 8 yards in any game this season? Well, sure, why not? Darren Waller has already been ruled out for Week 9, so Bellinger should be running more routes this week as the only healthy tight end on the roster. That's no guarantee that Bellinger will be a featured part of the offense, but he wasn't bad last season, serving as a viable safety blanket for Daniel Jones and averaging 7.7 yards per target. I'd rather pay up for McBride, but if I need to save money anywhere, Bellinger is sure to be low-rostered. |
FanDuel |
- Trey McBride @CLE $5300
- Hunter Henry vs. WAS $5100
- Jonnu Smith vs. MIN $5000
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McBride is my preferred TE play for Week 9 on both sites, and in as many leagues as I managed to add him in. There's no guarantee that McBride will repeat last week's 10-catch performance, especially with rookie Clayton Tune seemingly likely (though not certain) to start. It's a tough matchup, and the combination of the Browns pass rush and a rookie QB could completely derail this Cardinals offense, but if they manage to keep things on schedule, McBride looks like the clear best value at the position. |
Sample DraftKings lineup |
- QB Aidan O'Connell vs. NYG $4500
- RB Alvin Kamara vs. CHI $8100
- RB Bijan Robinson vs. MIN $6100
- WR Davante Adams vs. NYG $8100
- WR Chris Olave vs. CHI $6300
- WR Jonathan Mingo vs. IND $3400
- TE Daniel Bellinger @LV $2500
- FLEX Saquon Barkley @LV $7900
- DST Patriots vs. WAS $2900
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Sample FanDuel lineup |
- QB Gardner Minshew @CAR $6500
- RB Josh Jacobs vs. NYG $7500
- RB Tony Pollard @PHI $6600
- WR A.J. Brown vs. DAL $9000
- WR Davante Adams vs. NYG $8000
- WR Josh Downs @CAR $6400
- TE Trey McBride @CLE $5300
- FLEX Chris Olave vs. CHI $6900
- DST Patriots vs. WAS $3700
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| | | | | | Saturday at 12:00 PM ET, the Big Ten on CBS kicks off a huge day of college football with #1 Ohio State taking on Rutgers. At 3:30 PM ET, it's over to the SEC on CBS for #12 Missouri against #2 Georgia. Then in primetime, it's a showdown in Tuscaloosa between #14 LSU and #8 Alabama. Watch Live | | Sunday on CBS, it's a can't-miss week 9 slate headlined by an inter-conference showdown in Charm City between the Seahawks and Ravens. It all gets started at 12:00 PM ET with JB and the Guys on The NFL Today. Watch on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Tune In |
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