It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! Today's matchups will be pass-game-centric, with Thursday's newsletter focused more on the run game.

Before we dive in, here are a few reminders for the FFT fam:

1. If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here!

2. This Thursday's Beyond the Box Score guest will be Dave Richard of FFT!

I put together a pretty spicy Week 9 rankings set that had Chris Olave (expert consensus ranking of WR30) at WR10, and nobody blinked an eye. I think they were too distracted by the Khalil Shakir ranking.

My guy Pat Fitzmaurice knows ball.

Vegas has the New Orleans Saints implied for 25.25 points in Week 9, only eight teams project for more points. A big contributing factor to such lofty expectations in Derek Carr's return is the lackluster play of the Carolina Panthers pass rush. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite's pressure rate over expectation metric, the Panthers have by far the worst pass rush in the NFL.

When his QB has been pressured in 2024, Olave has just a 14% target per route run rate. He's been targeted on 28% of his routes when the QB was not pressured.

With Rashid Shaheed out of the picture, Olave has a clear runway to pile up massive target shares any week that the offensive line can hold up long enough to support a functional dropback game.

The Vikings lost star left tackle Christian Darrisaw in Week 8. Fortunately, Minnesota's first week without him brings a matchup against a Colts defense that the FP Data Suite has graded as the NFL's second-worst pass rush. Indy did just get defensive tackle DeForest Buckner back in the lineup, but Cam Robinson shouldn't have to deal with him much. Robinson's individual matchup will come against Dayo Odeyingbo. Among 99 defensive linemen/linebackers with 100+ pass rush snaps on non-blitz plays, Odeyingbo ranks 92nd in time to pressure and 67th in pressure rate. The Colts are one of seven teams without a single player in the top 40.

I have some concern about Sam Darnold's timing being thrown off as a result of the loss of Darrisaw, but at least in Week 9, the matchup presents as a winnable one for Minnesota's offensive line. If the Vikes can't protect Darnold vs. the Colts, the alarm bells will really be ringing for this offense going forward.

This may be more of a note of indictment on Cincinnati's pass rush than anything else, but it's still worth noting -- Hurts had been pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks in every game leading up to Week 8 vs. Cincinnati. He registered just a 14% pressure rate in what ended up being his most efficient 2024 passing game.

In Week 9, Philly faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks 24th in pressure rate and dead last in blitz rate. The league average pressure rate is 34%. The Jags have generated pressure on more than 30% of dropbacks against just three opponents: the Patriots, Browns, and Bears. According to the FP Data Suite, those are all bottom-12 teams in pass protection, with the Browns and Pats ranking 32nd and 31st. Even against the Texans (25th), Jacksonville generated just a 28% pressure rate.

We may see Philly's pass protection build some momentum in this matchup. Of the pass-catchers, DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley have been the most sensitive to pressure. Hurts has been more likely to check down to Saquon when kept clean but is unable to find a downfield read that he likes. He's been more likely to scramble when pressured. Smith has just a 17% target per route run rate and 1.10 yard per route run rate vs. pressure, compared to rates of 29% and 3.17 when Hurts has not been pressured in 2024. A.J. Brown has been awesome in all situations, and his per-route efficiency does improve when Hurts has not been pressured.

Brian Thomas Jr. leads the NFL in receiving yards on plays where there was no pressure. He has a 30% target per route run rate that falls all the way to 9% when Trevor Lawrence has been pressured. Generally speaking, target per route run rates fall precipitously vs. pressure. Quarterbacks are sacked more often vs. pressure, which doesn't yield a target. They also are more likely to scramble or throw the ball away, again, no target.

Christian Kirk's target-per-route run rate actually stayed the same when Lawrence was or was not pressured. That's really unusual. He was by far T-Law's favorite target when the QB felt pressure.

Maybe Evan Engram fills that void. For what it's worth, his target per route run rate when Lawrence has been pressured has been below 10% in each of the past two seasons, and Engram played a lot of snaps with Kirk sidelined in 2023. I wonder if maybe Parker Washington is a fit for the Kirk role.

I bring this up because the Jags face one of the best pass rushers from the right side in a Week 9 matchup vs. Josh Sweat and the Eagles. And the left tackle spot is a real problem for Jacksonville. The aforementioned Cam Robinson (now filling in for Darrisaw in Minnesota) opened the season as the LT for the Jags. He's since been replaced by 2021 Round 2 pick Walker Little. No matter which metric I look at, Little looks like one of the worst pass protectors in the NFL in 2024.

It's possible that the answer to "which Jags pass-catcher" is simply none. Jacksonville has the fifth-lowest implied team total (19 points) in Week 9. If BTJ suits up, you probably have to start him. And if you are desperate, Washington may be a viable fill-in option. Here is some preseason Parker Washington footage if you want to get a better feel for what he offers. He provided modest production when filling in for Kirk as a rookie:

Seattle's front seven is scary. The Seahawks have five players in the top 40 of the individual pressure rate leaderboard that I shared earlier, that's more than any other team. The Seahawks also just traded for Ernest Jones from the Titans. He was one of the NFL's most effective pass-rushing linebackers with the Rams in 2023.

Seattle ranks just 26th in blitz rate but eighth in pressure rate. With the Rams still missing Jonah Jackson and Steve Avilah, this is a scary matchup. Few quarterbacks are more sensitive to pressure than a 36-year-old Matthew Stafford. His 11.3% turnover-worthy throw rate when pressured is the second-highest behind only Will Levis. When not pressured, that rate is just 1.7%. Only Anthony Richardson (35%) and Bryce Young (35%) have higher off-target rates than Stafford (34%) when pressured.

Is there hope for the Rams? Well, Vegas sure seems to think so. Los Angeles is listed as a 1.5-point favorite and carries a top-10 implied point total (25) into Week 9. For what it's worth, after posting a pressure rate above 35% in each of the first four games, Seattle's pressure rate has topped 35% in just one of the past three and reached a season-low 22% vs. Buffalo in Week 8.

Meanwhile, the Rams have been great in pass pro lately. Each of the past four opponents has failed to generate pressure at an above-league-average rate vs. L.A., and that stretch included the Vikings (sixth in FP Data's pressure rate over expectation) and Bears (ninth). The Rams were the first offense to not allow a single sack vs. Minnesota's pass rush.

Partial credit belongs to the offensive line, for sure. Fill-in undrafted free agent left tackle Justin Dedich has been L.A.'s best pass protector by many metrics. The efforts of the offensive line and Kyren Williams to keep this offense on track even without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have been heroic.

Partial credit also belongs to Sean McVay and Stafford for getting the ball out faster than ever. Stafford's two lowest average time-to-throw rates each came in the past two games. In Week 7, Stafford did not have a single pass attempt that took longer than three seconds to leave his hand. That was the first time he had accomplished that over a full game since 2020.

With Kupp and Nacua back, it's possible that the Rams can circumnavigate offensive line injuries, avoid negative plays, and keep the chains moving. The Vegas implied total suggests such, and this individual matchup against Seattle may be perfect for L.A.'s quick-hitting approach to work. While Seattle's scary personnel up front creates a ton of pressure, they do not necessarily do it quickly. The Seahawks rank just 22nd in time to pressure (2.59 seconds). That's typical for a team with a low blitz rate. Stafford may have the ball out before the stud Seawhawks defensive lineman can get to him, though. His time to throw has been below 2.59 seconds in each of the past two games.

Intuitively, Kupp seems like the player who is most likely to benefit from an emphasis on quick passing. Interestingly, when both players have been on the field (2023-24), Nacua is the one who has more targets coming in 2.59 seconds or less. That holds true -- Nacua leads Kupp in targets -- all the way down, even on throws coming in two seconds or less.

I expect McVay to be laser-focused on finding ways to quickly get the ball out of Stafford's hands and into the hands of Nacua and Kupp in Week 9.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks face off against a Rams defense that has wreaked havoc to the tune of a +40% pressure rate in four of the past five games.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Geno ranks sixth in catchable ball rate when not pressured and 30th when pressured. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the team in receiving on dropbacks where Smith was pressured, while Tyler Lockett has seen his per-route rates diminished the most with Smith under pressure.

When not pressured, Baker Mayfield fed a 33% target per route run rate to Chris Godwin and a 29% rate to Mike Evans. When pressured, it has become complete chaos. If comparing the disparity between a quarterback's scramble rate when pressured and not pressured, you'd find Mayfield's name at the top of the list among qualifiers. He's more sensitive to pressure than any other QB in terms of how likely he is to take off and run. In fact, only Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray have averaged more rushing yards per dropback vs. pressure than Mayfield in 2024.

Here are the top receiving yardage totals when Mayfield has faced pressure in 2024:

65 - Chris Godwin
54 - Bucky Irving
51 - Sean Tucker
40 - Cade Otton

Chaos. That's what we're expecting from Baker against a Chiefs defense that boasts the second-fastest time to pressure in 2024. Steve Spagnuolo's Chiefs defense brings a 39% pressure rate into this matchup. Beyond chaos, Vegas isn't expecting much from the Bucs.

The Chiefs have allowed some big games to tight ends. They also just held Brock Bowers to three catches before Las Vegas made its final garbage time drive.

If Kansas City doesn't deem the receiver room a threat and makes it a priority to slow down Cade Otton, I'd expect him to slow down. Otton is still fine to start if he's your best option -- he's the TE10 in my most recent rankings -- but I'm generally shying away from Tampa vs. this Chiefs pass rush. Baker Mayfield is QB19 in my Week 9 rankings. Jalen McMillan (WR45) and Sterling Shepard (WR56) are basically outside of starting consideration. Rachaad White (RB26) and Bucky Irving (RB28) are fine flex fillers if you need them, but I don't feel great about it.

There's no way around it: Caleb Williams has dreadful data independent of pressure. None of his splits look good. He's been arguably the worst in the NFL when pressured, though. His highly accurate ball rate is the league's lowest vs. pressure. Only Bryce Young has a lower catchable ball rate and higher off-target rate vs. pressure.

In Week 9, Caleb faces a Cardinals defense ranked 29th in pressure. The league average pressure rate is 34%, and Arizona hasn't recorded a single-game rate higher than that all year.

When pressured, Caleb's top two receivers in terms of yardage are Cole Kmet and D'Andre Swift. When not pressured, his top receivers are D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Kmet.

Target per route run rate when Caleb is clean:

30% - Allen (small sample size)
27% - Moore
24% - Kmet
23% - Odunze

Yard per route run rate when Caleb is clean:

2.30 - Kmet
2.25 - Odunze
1.91 - Moore
1.65 - Allen

I'm reading this as a positive matchup for Kmet. I'm not all that confident in the receivers. The Cardinals have the league's lowest opponent first-read target rate. Arizona often uses three safeties and drops into two-high shell coverages that invite quarterbacks to take easy targets to wide-open tight ends and running backs.

We saw the Bears focus more on Odunze out of the bye, with Kmet barely getting involved. This is a much different matchup. Arizona has the highest catchable target rate allowed on throws over the middle of the field, and only 24.5% of those middle-field targets went to the receiver position. Arizona's combined in-line tight end + RB target rate on middle-field throws is the highest in the NFL. I have Kmet ranked as TE11 for Week 9 and think you could realistically push him ahead of both Dalton Kincaid and Cade Otton. He's an intriguing contrarian way to fill the TE spot for DFS this weekend.

I also think the receivers are totally viable plays. The Cardinals have been the easiest to attack over the middle, but that doesn't mean that this defense is one to shy away from with perimeter receivers. Terry McLaurin torched Arizona. So did the Packers receivers. I have all three Bears wideouts as top-40 Fantasy WR options in my Week 9 rankings.

No defense has allowed a higher catchable target rate on perimeter throws than the Jaguars. The Jags use man coverage at the second-highest rate (43%), and of course, A.J. Brown feasts vs. man.

Just how high the Eagles will fly will likely come down to the Jaguars. I have my concerns. In addition to serious questions about the Jags being able to contain Josh Sweat, the schematic fit vs. Philly's defense feels less than ideal. As detailed many times in this space, Trevor Lawrence's splits get way better when facing Cover 3. It's the NFL's most common defense, and Lawrence has performed well vs. it throughout his career. The Eagles use Cover 3 at the ninth-lowest rate (25%), instead opting for more two-high safety looks. 

I almost didn't write about the Jets because I don't like writing about the Jets. And because they play on Thursday, and I often avoid Thursday games because this write-up is dense enough as-is.

Then I found this nugget: the Texans have allowed a league-low catchable ball rate on perimeter targets. This is, first and foremost, a Garrett Wilson note. Davante Adams has a 46% slot rate and just a 6.6-yard aDOT since joining the Jets. Wilson is the one seeing the downfield targets lately. Another Wilson note -- Rodgers has been really sensitive to pressure this year, and Wilson's rates come way down when his QB is pressured. The Texans rank second in pressure rate over expectation.

Kansas City's offense funneled targets to Kelce more in Week 8 than at any other point, and we'll likely see something similar in Week 9. The Bucs have a league-high zone coverage rate, and Xavier Worthy's target per route run rate dips from 31% vs. man to 17% vs. zone. Worthy and Mahomes just haven't found much of a mind-meld on the timing necessary to fit targets into zone holes.

I do think there will be opportunities for Worthy; I just don't know if we should expect him to convert. He has not so far. For example, Worthy has been targeted on 10 of 30 routes vs. the blitz. That's great! He's turned those opportunities into just four receptions for 36 yards. Can we expect a big performance vs. a blitz-heavy Todd Bowles defense? Maybe! Kelce feels like the more trustworthy option.

I'm focused on the Chiefs pass game, even with Kansas City expected to play with a large lead, for two reasons:

1. The Bucs have the fourth-highest opponent pass rate over expectation in 2024. Offenses have chosen to pass the ball vs. Tampa even when not necessarily expected to.

2. The Chiefs had the third-highest pass rate over expectation in Week 8. Kansas City may be making a concentrated effort to improve the pass-game rhythm with the playoffs looming. It would not surprise me to see 35+ attempts from Mahomes, even in a double-digit win.

Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday; you can find those on YouTube!