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Thursday, June 20, 2024
When Royce Lewis went 0 for 5 Tuesday, he said he just knew there was no way it would happen again. He told Twins hitting coach David Popkins before Wednesday's game, " Hey, I don't do that slump thing . That's not a real thing for me."
And wouldn't you know it, Lewis went out Wednesday against the Rays and went 3 for 4 with a 109-mph homer off the previously red-hot Taj Bradley. That's not eight homers in 14 games this season for Lewis, who is also hitting .380. There's no way this is a sustainable pace, and yet, I don't exactly feel comfortable betting against Lewis at this point.
And that's kind of how I feel about him from a Fantasy perspective. Lewis is still just 84 games into his major-league career, but he's hitting .314/.370/.594 with 25 homers, 53 runs, 68 RBI, and six steals – a 46-homer pace with 236 combined runs and RBI. There's no way he can keep that up, right? His underlying numbers don't quite back it up, though it's not like they're bad – his career .275 expected batting average and .517 expected slugging percentage are basically in line with what Gunnar Henderson has produced this season. 
Still, by all logic, Lewis should be a sell-high candidate. He's hit like an MVP candidate in the majors, but he's also missed a ton of time with injuries – as I wrote in this newsletter a week ago, he has played just 133 games since his age-20 season, and Lewis just turned 25 two weeks ago. He's hitting over his head and has about as lengthy an injury track record as anyone in baseball. So, sell high, right? 
I just don't know if I can bring myself to do it. I try to pride myself on being as logical as I can be, and I'll admit, this isn't an entirely logical position. Logic would suggest we should be trying to sell Lewis for a safer thing. By my latest Trade Values Chart, you should move Lewis for someone like Vladimir Guerrero or Ozzie Albies, but neither feels like enough of a clear win to justify it, so I'd have to aim higher. C.J. Abrams or Corbin Carroll ? Yeah, I'd probably do both, but I have health concerns about the former and performance concerns about the latter to make it tough to pull the trigger on. 
Am I saying you shouldn't sell Lewis? No! I am, in fact, explicitly saying it might be the most logical thing you can do. But Fantasy Baseball doesn't always have to be about doing the most logical thing. Sometimes you want to do what's fun. And what's fun right now is riding the Royce Lewis Comet. If I'm moving him right now, I'm trying for a legitimate second-round-caliber player in return. And if I can't get it? I'll ride with Lewis to the moon. 
Thursday's top waiver targets
Miguel Andujar, OF, Athletics (25%) – I truly can't believe that Andujar has been Fantasy relevant even for the three or so weeks this has been going on for. Do I believe he'll keep it up? Oh, almost certainly not, but he's not entirely without merit. Andujar is making a ton of contact right now, striking out just 13.5% of the time, and while he isn't exactly crushing the ball, his .273 expected batting average suggests that there could be a useful player here. Not a difference maker, certainly, and probably not even someone you want to start regularly even in five-outfielder leagues. But his contact-heavy approach could keep Andujar Fantasy relevant moving forward. 
Jesus Sanchez, OF, Marlins (6%) – I think we pretty much know what Jesus Sanchez is at this point: He's a streaky hitter who can get red-hot in an instant and provide a nice boost for your Fantasy team before he inevitably goes cold. Sanchez has now homered in consecutive games and actually has pretty tremendous underlying numbers that suggest a hot streak could be looming. I don't think his .289 xBA and .506 xSLG are actually good barometers for what to expect from him moving forward, but I do think Sanchez can be useful for the next few weeks until the next slump comes along. 
Tyler Black, 3B, Brewers (15%) – Black is back with the Brewers, but I'm just not sure how much of an impact he's likely to make. Partially, that's because I don't necessarily buy the skill set – he's put up really solid numbers in the minors, but his power seems marginal, and that makes it hard to buy him as the terrific OBP guy he has been in the minors. But there's speed here, so if the Brewers give him a chance, it'll be interesting to see what he can do with it. For now, give him a look in deeper leagues, especially categories leagues with OBP. 
Andrew Heaney, SP, TEX (19%) – We go through this every once in a while with Heaney, where he'll look like a useful Fantasy option before turning back into an also-ran, and I suspect that's what we'll see moving forward. But Wednesday was a very nice start from Heaney, who struck out nine over six innings against the Mets , with 15 whiffs on 89 pitches, fueled by increased slider usage as well as a little velocity boost. He's been better since the start of June, and has two starts next week – I don't love the matchups against the Brewers and Orioles on the road, but in H2H points leagues, I could see rolling him out there. 
Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs (5%) – I think the likeliest explanation here is the Giants were just taken by surprise by Hendricks, who relied on a surprisingly high number of fastballs up in the zone that didn't get crushed (this time). Stil, he re-emerged as a very useful Fantasy option for much of last season, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw him go on a similar run here. The margin for error is razor thin here, but Hendricks is worth a look in deeper leagues. 
News and Notes
Aaron Judge was not in the lineup Wednesday against the Orioles after getting hit by a pitch on his left hand Tuesday. X-rays and a CT scan came back negative and he's expected to avoid a trip to the IL. He's day-to-day.
CJ Abrams was scratched Wednesday due to a wrist injury he suffered during a collision Tuesday. Abrams will undergo an MRI, so let's cross our fingers and hope for the best here. 
Walker Buehler was placed on the IL due to hip discomfort. He was hit by a comebacker on the hip during Tuesday's start, though this is as much about his struggles since coming back from Tommy John surgery as anything else, something Buehler and manager Dave Roberts all but admitted after his struggles Tuesday. I'm trying to hold him if I can, and the IL designation certainly helps. 
Yordan Alvarez has missed two straight with a personal issue. 
Jazz Chisholm was scratched from the lineup due to right hamstring tightness. 
Nolan Arenado left Wednesday's game after getting hit by a pitch on his right elbow. X-rays came back negative. Arenado said he expects to return on Saturday.
Nolan Jones was scratched Wednesday due to illness.
Kyle Gibson was scratched from his start Wednesday due to back tightness. 
The Cubs are designating Yan Gomes for assignment and signing Tomas Nideo to replace him.
Eduardo Rodriguez will likely begin throwing off a mound within the next week after the latest imaging on his left shoulder showed almost 100% healing. 
Wednesday's standouts 
Gerrit Cole, Yankees vs. BAL: 4 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Cole made his long-awaited season debut Wednesday, and … he was fine. It was an especially tough landing spot against the Orioles, and they welcomed him quite rudely, jumping on Cole for four batted balls of at least 100 mph in the first inning. That he was able to limit the damage to just one run in that frame is a good sign, but Cole hardly looked dominant in this one … which is fine! It was his first start back from a lengthy layoff due to an elbow injury, it would be unfair to expect him to look like a Cy Young winner right away against this matchup. I still expect Cole to be a very useful Fantasy option this season, though I'd like to see the velocity creep up over the next few starts – he was down 1.6 mph from last season, sitting at 95.1 mph with his four-seamer here. I'll definitely give him a few starts before panicking. 
Tarik Skubal, Tigers @ATL: 4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – I was surprised to see a lot of Skubal discourse on Twitter after this start, and it's the only reason I'm really writing about him here. He's hit a bit of a rough patch here, with four runs allowed in three of his past six starts. Of course, overall in those six starts, he still has 39 strikeouts to just 10 walks in 35 innings of work with a 3.60 ERA. That's what his rough patches look like and I'm supposed to be worried? I am, in fact, not worried about Skubal. At all. 
Freddy Peralta, Brewers @LAA: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Peralta's slump was a lot deeper than Skubal's, and I wasn't really worried about that one either. I guess I'm just not a worrier. My friends do not call me "Whiskers." The truth of the matter is, Peralta is never quite as good as he looks at his best, nor as bad as he looks at his worst; part of why I wasn't drafting him this season is because he was coming off one of his best stretches, and I didn't want to pay full freight for it. He remains a very good pitcher overall, though you'll be better off if you just leave him in your lineup and ignore the ups and downs. 
Bobby Miller, Dodgers @COL: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – Of course you'd like better results from Miller, but I also hope you were smart enough not to start him in his first game back from the IL at Coors Field. Miller's velocity mostly looked fine coming back from the shoulder injury, and that's the only real takeaway we can get from this outing. Let's hope for better things in a more normal environment the next time out, which will come at the White Sox. Do start him there. 
Garrett Crochet, White Sox vs. HOU: 6 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Crochet gave up some hard contact in this one, with nine batted balls with an expected batting average of at least .430 in this one. However, he still got swinging strikes on 22.3% of his pitches, so I see no reason to be concerned. There are still long-term questions about whether Crochet will face an innings limit at some point, but I do expect him to remain must-start player moving forward. 
Hunter Greene, Reds @PIT: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Greene has seemingly traded some improvements in quality of contact for a decrease in his strikeout rate so far this season, and on the whole, that's been a worthwhile trade. The question is whether he can start to dial the strikeout rate up without also being victimized by homers like he has been in his first two seasons, and today was a great test case for what it might look like. He gave up just four hard-hit balls in this one, as he did an excellent job of keeping the four-seam fastball in the top half of the strike zone and the slider on the glove side of the plate. His command will rarely be perfect, but if he's spotting those pitches in those general zones, Greene should be able to get by, and he's also clearly starting to trust his splitter more, too; he threw it 17 times Wednesday and has now thrown it at least 11% of the time in four straight starts It's not a swing-and-miss weapon like the fastball and slider, but it has generated a ton of weak contact, and his growing confidence bodes well. We've been teased by Greene before, but this might just be the most sustainable version yet. 
Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays vs. BOS: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – I have moved Gausman down to SP36 in my rankings, and I just don't expect elite production from him at this point. This isn't a Pablo Lopez situation where his underlying numbers still look really good and he's just executing poorly; Gausman's strikeout rate is the lowest it has been since 2018, while his expected wOBA on contact is the highest it's ever been, leading to a 4.98 xERA entering this start. There will be more good starts coming, and Gausman should be worth starting more often than not. But I just don't see anything in his profile that suggests he still deserves to be a must-start Fantasy option anymore. 
Bryan Woo, Mariners @CLE: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – Between the injury scares and his obviously unsustainable performance, Woo feels like the most obvious sell-high candidate in Fantasy right now. Now, you might say, "Well, who is trying to buy him right now?" But my point is, I think there's a better-than-even chance Woo is just totally worthless at some point soon. He's had several arm injury scares already this season, and despite his excellent ERA, has just an 18.4% strikeout rate for the season. Woo's fastballs are awesome, but he's throwing them a combined 80% of the time, and that just can't be a sustainable path to success. I'd try to move Woo for basically anything worth rostering right now. 
Hunter Brown, Astros @CHW: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Brown keeps finding success through that new sinker, and he now has a 1.70 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 37 innings over the past seven starts. I'm buying in
Matt Waldron, Padres @PHI: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Waldron has basically been throwing his knuckleball 40% of the time over his past eight starts, and he's been dominant, sporting a 1.82 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in that span. I would like to see him throw that knuckler even more, personally, just to see what happens, but the results of late sort of speak for themselves. Knuckleballers always feel inherently hard to trust – they're the random number generators of even the relatively unpredictable pitcher position – but Waldron deserves to be rostered in all leagues until he stumbles. 
Taj Bradley, Rays @MIN: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Bradley just didn't have his command here, and that remains the biggest flaw in his game. He was probably pretty lucky to escape here with the quality start given the lack of strikeouts and the hard contact he allowed, but hey, we'll take it if this is what the bad starts look like. Bradley still looks like a must-roster pitcher, even though I remain concerned that the actual floor is quite a bit lower than this when things go wrong. 
Brayan Bello, Red Sox @TOR: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – This was a fine start, but I'll admit, I remain befuddled as to why Bello's roster rate remains at 71%. He was never a top-100 prospect, doesn't get many strikeouts, doesn't have especially good control, and gives up a ton of homers, which is why he had a 5.00 ERA entering this start and a 4.51 ERA for his career. If you haven't dropped him by now, I guess it's fine to keep him after this outing, but I just don't get why so many of you haven't dropped him. What am I missing? 
Cade Povich, Orioles @NYY: 4.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 1 K – After a very good outing in his second MLB start, I thought it made sense to hold Povich to see if he could build on it. But even granting that this was an especially tough matchup, I just haven't seen very much from Povich to suggest he's worth rostering in most Fantasy leagues at this point. He now has nine strikeouts and nine walks in his first 16 MLB innings, after a minor-league career where he had a 4.36 ERA and 3.7 BB/9 in 65 career starts. I just never saw the upside here many seemed to. 
Steven Kwan, OF, Guardians – Look, Kwan isn't suddenly a power hitter or anything. He's in the seventh percentile in average exit velocity and fourth percentile in barrel rate, this is not a profile we should ever expect to generate much power. But it is worth noting that, while his 2.4% barrel rate is extremely low, it's more than double his 1.1% rate from last season, and that's reflected in his expected ISO sitting at a career-best .106. Yes, that's still an extremely low number, but it's significantly higher than his .76 mark from a year ago. Kwan is an obvious batting average standout, but what we've seen so far suggests he has taken a step forward as an overall hitter, and might not be a total zero in the power department anymore. 
Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees – Volpe needed that three-hit game Wednesday, because I'm seriously starting to doubt this breakout narrative. Volpe obviously got off to a monster start, but he was hitting just .240/.285/.368 since April 16, and had been the No. 20 SS in Roto leagues in that span before last night. His spot at the top of the Yankees lineup insulates him from too much potential loss of value, but it's worth noting that Volpe's xwOBA of .295 for the season is actually worse than his .308 mark from last season. I'm viewing Volpe as a sell-high candidate, still. 
Sean Murphy, C, Braves – Given that he left Opening Day with an oblique injury, I admittedly haven't been too worried about Murphy's struggles so far this season. But Murphy's two-homer showing Wednesday was still a very welcome sign. He went 4 for 4 overall with three batted balls of at least 106 mph, which I'm hoping is the first sign of him figuring things out. 
Jackson Merrill, SS, Padres – Merrill took Ranger Suarez deep in this one, just the third homer Suarez has given up to a left-handed hitter this season. Merrill has been red hot lately, with five homers in his past eight games, and I'm taking that as a sign that the rookie is starting to figure things out. His expected stats have been pretty terrific all season long, and now he's starting to tap into his solid raw power more. Merrill will probably never be more than an average-or-slightly-better source of power, but with his contact skills and plus speed, that can still be a very valuable Fantasy asset moving forward. 
 
 
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