US banks reported a hodgepodge of losses and gains | China’s prices inched upward |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for October 17th in 3:08 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. America’s big banks reported a bumpy quarter of peaks and troughs
  2. Here’s how to time your trades with the flawless instinct of a politician – Read Now
  3. China reported mild inflation last month, and that could have knock-on effects for the whole world

Big Banks Are In Stormy Seas

Big Banks Are In Stormy Seas

What’s Going On Here?

Big banks JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley reported a mixed bag of earnings on Friday.

What Does This Mean?

The US's biggest banks reported their results on Friday, and they were full of ups and downs. On the one hand, big banks boasted of plush consumer businesses: after all, they’re still making money from credit and debit card fees as folk keep spending despite the worsening economy. On top of that, higher interest rates helped balloon JPMorgan’s “net interest income” – that’s money it makes from lending minus the interest it pays – by 34%, and that helped America’s biggest bank grow its overall revenue by 10% versus this time last year.

On the other hand, though, the banks’ investment banking (IB) revenues plummeted as cautious companies stepped back from things like big mergers – which banks advise on for a fee – in this wearisome economic climate. In fact, Morgan Stanley’s IB revenue was 55% lower than the same time last year, which pulled its overall revenue down by 12%.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming out: Run for cover.
Banks build up cash reserves to cover themselves in case hard-up borrowers default on their loans, and adding to those cash piles took a massive bite out of their bottom-line profit last quarter. In fact, JPMorgan topped up reserves by a chunky $800 million, and its CEO blamed a dismal combination of sky-high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine, and a few other factors for the bank’s cautious move.

The bigger picture: Deep breaths.
Despite all the talk of a recession, we’re not actually doomed to repeat 2008’s financial crisis. Regulators learned a harsh lesson back then, and they’ve kept financial institutions on a short leash ever since, making sure their reserves are plump enough to cushion the blow a recession might bring. So if you’re looking for the smoke that comes as a crisis kindles, you probably won’t find it in the US banking system.

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Analyst Take

How To Trade Like A Politician

How To Trade Like A Politician

By Luke Suddards, Analyst

I’ve been brooding over the controversy surrounding major politicians’ trading patterns lately. 

Nancy Pelosi and her husband, to name a couple, have raised eyebrows with their impeccably-timed trades – especially given her very prominent position in US politics. 

Now I think about it, a more fitting name could be Nostradamus Pelosi. 

And while you might not have access to the private information that politicians are privy to, you may soon be able to copy their latest moves via two brand-new ETFs

So that’s today’s Insight: how politicians time their trades so perfectly, and how you can do the same.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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China Floats While The World’s Flailing

China Floats While The World’s Flailing

What’s Going On Here?

Fresh data out on Friday showed that China’s inflation was pretty gentle in September.

What Does This Mean?

Western countries may well be looking eastward with envy right now, comparing their own whirlwind price increases to China’s softer inflationary breeze. You can’t blame them: consumer prices in the world’s second-biggest economy were up just 2.8% in September compared to the same time last year. Granted, that’s the biggest increase since April 2020, but it’s still below economists’ expectations – and a damn sight better than the US’s 8.2%. China’s milder inflation was primarily driven by food prices, propelled by a shortage of pork (a food staple in the country) and temperatures that didn’t suit finicky fruit and veg. So when you really get down to brass tacks, month-on-month core inflation – which strips out volatile prices like food and energy – actually slowed to a mere 0.6%, the weakest it’s been since March 2021.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: China’s inflation is so 2022.
Forget inflation, some analysts reckon that China could be poised for a price-dropping “era of deflation”, with demand on pretty shaky legs at the minute. The main culprit seems to be its floundering property market, which makes up a third of the country’s entire economy: it saw its twelfth-straight month of declining house prices in August – an anniversary that no one wants to celebrate. No wonder, then, that economists expect the government to announce a slew of new support measures.

The bigger picture: Good news, gang.
Those deflation predictions might be bad news for China, but it could be just what the rest of the world needs. China’s the world’s biggest exporter, so any drop in its prices would mean other countries cough up less on imports. With a little luck, that could help take inflation off the boil across the globe.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Don’t discuss yourself, for you are bound to lose. If you belittle yourself, you are believed. If you praise yourself, you are disbelieved.”

– Michel de Montaigne (a French writer and philosopher)
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CHART OF THE WEEK

If you’re looking for a template of a successful investor, look no further than Warren Buffett. As you can see, the Oracle Of Omaha is a massive backer of big-name stocks like Apple and Coca-Cola. But look a bit closer, and some of his lesser known investments may surprise you.

Created with Genuine Impact.

🌍 Finimize Live

🥳 Coming Up This Week

All events in UK time.

💸 How To Understand The True Value Of Crypto: 6pm, October 17th
🌍 How to Avoid Greenwashing When Investing: 12:30pm, October 18th
💻 How To Invest In Tech Stocks During A Recession: 5pm, October 18th
💪 Three Metrics You Should Know Before Investing: 1pm, October 19th

👀 And After That…

🎧 How To Invest In Music NFTs: 6pm, October 24th
🗂 How to Prepare Your Portfolio For Recession: 5pm, October 25th
⬆️ How to Navigate Rising Interest Rates: 1pm, October 26th
🔥 How To Secure Your Financial Future Before 40: 5pm, October 26th
🏆 How To Spot Investment Opportunities In Gold: 12pm, October 27th
🥗 How Will The Global Food Crisis Impact Your Portfolio: 1pm, October 28th
🇨🇳 What You Need To Know About Investing In China: 5pm, October 31st
🤑 Asset Allocation For Young Investors: 5pm, November 2nd
🙋‍♀️ Ladies Investing Club Meetup: 6.30pm, November 2nd (in person)
💰 Strategies For Market Volatility: 1pm, November 8th
🔧 Tools Value Investors Use For Turbulent Times: 6pm, November 10th
🚀 Modern Investor Summit: 12pm, December 6th-7th

🎯 On Our Radar

  1. Too hot to trot. Please cast normal-looking actors as normal people.
  2. Magdalene’s makeover. The building that spans four centuries.
  3. Netflix gets ad-dled. The streaming giant’s now planning to run adverts.
  4. “Wellness” weariness. Self-healing shouldn’t be self-exhausting.
  5. Universal cancer treatment. Trailblazing research suggests it’s possible.
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