What gold and bonds are telling you…

[7 min read]

Dear Reader,

Over the past few months there has been a lot of ‘OMG the inflation is coming’ talk.

But since the big US inflation number hit a few weeks ago, bond yields have declined. The 10-year government treasury yield in the US is now 1.57%. It peaked in March at 1.75%.

In other words, the bond market is not worried about a strengthening economy or rising inflation. In fact, it seems more concerned about a slowing economy.

So does gold. Yesterday, the yellow metal rallied to over US$1,900 an ounce. That’s the highest it’s been since January this year.

Gold is a defensive asset. It usually rises on concern about the health of the economy and/or monetary system. It bottomed in March at US$1,680 and is now around US$1,900.

Gold and bonds are telling you something. In a few months’ time, I think you’ll know what that is. With this in mind, today I’m reproducing a note I sent out to subscribers of Greg Canavan’s Investment Advisory. I hope you find it insightful.

‘In your May monthly issue, I made the case that risks were to the downside over the next few months.

‘I think you’re seeing the early stages of that now.

‘Last week’s crypto sell-off was an early warning sign that the speculative juice is coming out of the market.

‘Let me explain…

‘I recently took out a trial subscription to Rosenberg Research. Dave Rosenberg is one of the world’s best economists/market strategists. He is a brilliant contrarian thinker.

‘I’ve been reading his stuff on and off since around 2007 when he was at Merrill Lynch.

‘Anyway, the first note hit my inbox last night. I was pleased/not pleased to see Dave thinking along the same lines…

“Everywhere we look there are signals of change occurring underneath the hood of the market. Indeed, some of the massive speculative manias that had previously led markets have recently peaked and rolled over. Looking at the table below, we can see some great examples of this — select FAANG stocks (Apple, Amazon, Netflix down 13%, 10%, and 16% respectively), IPOs (-24%), SPACs (-24%), Lumber (-23%), Tesla (-35%) and Bitcoin (-36%) have all shifted to corrections or outright bear markets.

“Ultimately, this is just another example of the choppiness and “churn” that is occurring beneath the surface that we have been describing of late. As is typical of all market tops, it is the most speculative areas that tend to peak out and roll over first. The dominos will fall next on the more cyclical parts of the market and especially the ones that believe we are into some new inflationary era (commodities as an example). Time to get more defensive both within the equity market and across the asset classes.”

‘What’s going on here?

‘Well, I think it’s simply a matter of “peak stimulus” being behind us for now. A huge amount of speculative capital came into the market last year and into 2021 due to global pandemic-related stimulus. But like the pig in the python, it is moving through the system now and having a diminished impact.

‘As I’ve discussed on numerous occasions, “Life at Zero” isn’t all plain sailing. Markets won’t go up in a straight line. There will be frightening pullbacks along the way to higher and higher stock markets.

‘It is these frightening pullbacks that will ensure the authorities do something even more absurd down the track. This will further destroy the purchasing power of currencies.

‘The key to dealing with this is foresight. If you know there is an increased probability of something coming, you are in a better place mentally to deal with it. It also gives you time to position your portfolio for turbulence.

‘To be really clear here, I don’t expect things to go pear-shaped in the broader markets immediately. Major indices in Australia and the US are still in healthy uptrends. This could still take three to six months to unfold. I’m just alerting you to the warning signs.

‘That’s why I wrote about this in the May issue and have been focusing on gold again.

‘Over the next few weeks, I’ll be looking at making some adjustments to the portfolio. I have a few stocks on my radar to buy too…those that are completely out of synch with the economic cycle that may provide a decent hedge if selling does take place in the months to come.

‘For now though, have a think about how your portfolio is positioned. Are you exposed to any of the highly speculative themes of the last 12 months?

‘Copper is a good example. It’s surged 150% from the March 2020 low to the recent all-time high. But it’s now back below that high. I wrote about this in yesterday’s [Monday’s] Insider.

‘Again, I was pleased/not pleased to see Dave mention copper in his note. In the chart below, he shows China’s credit impulse slowing, and suggests this is usually a precursor to copper falling too…

‘I would argue that there is an ever-greater correlation to iron ore prices. If that’s the case, BHP and RIO may soon start putting pressure on the ASX 200.

‘To sum up then, I think it’s time for caution. If this pullback/correction plays out as I expect, there will be some great buying opportunities. You just want to have some cash ready to take advantage of them.’

Regards,

Greg Canavan,
Editor, The Rum Rebellion

Zombies Everywhere
By Bill Bonner

Why do empires collapse? And why do economies decay?

Keeping it all very simple…

A society prospers or declines depending on how much of its vitality is engaged in providing useful goods and services…

…compared to how much is spent grifting…stealing…politicking…and wasting time and savings on zombie companies, wars, and dead-end investments.

And appearances can be misleading…

Complete disaster

In the early days of the Third Reich, for example, many observers thought the German economy would be a good model for the rest of the world.

Coming out of a catastrophic hyperinflation in the early 1920s…and after dragging the burden of reparations like a ball and chain…Germany nevertheless rebounded smartly in the 1930s.

Suddenly everyone was working, and every industrial chimney was belching smoke.

But it was a fraud. The German economy had been hijacked by warmongers — drafted in to support Hitler’s fantasies of world domination.

Instead of making passenger cars, it was tanks that rolled off the assembly lines. Instead of making commercial airliners, they built fighter jets and bombers. Instead of growing wheat and vegetables for their families…German labourers were needed on the Eastern Front!

In the 1940s, when the unemployment rate in Nazi Germany went to zero…workers were forcibly recruited from France and Poland. By then, Germany was ‘investing’ more than half its entire GDP in the war effort.

We all know what these ‘investments’ produced — a complete disaster for Germany as well as her neighbours.

Impaired judgment

As a general rule, the more of a society’s energy is ‘invested’ by government (rather than by private investors with a profit motive), the lower the return.

Government ‘investments’ are more likely to be either disguised transfer payments…or worse, megalomaniacal crackpottery. In either case, the real return on investment is typically below zero.

Over the last two weeks, we’ve noticed that many private investments can also be unproductive. When fake money is handed out like free booze, it’s bound to lead to some impaired judgment.

At its recent peak, the cryptocurrency market was worth US$2.4 trillion. And of the US’ top 1,500 companies, 200 of them — with a combined market value of US$2.3 trillion — haven’t made a profit in three years.

Cryptos aren’t designed to provide products or services. And money-losing companies subtract wealth; they don’t add it.

Together, that is nearly US$5 trillion of zombie capital. (Much of it will disappear in the next crash.)

Connecting the dots

But how can we connect these dots? The misguided investments…the idle minds…the goofball spending?

For the first time in the history of economics — you are the first to see it, dear reader — we unveil our Zombie Index [ZI].

Remember, when people can work, save, invest, and innovate — without interference — they prosper.

But when people are distracted, detained, bamboozled, or otherwise prevented from carrying on with their projects, the society gets poorer.

And now, our impression is that the zombies are many…they are breeding like rabbits. We think that explains why US GDP growth rates are now at their lowest levels since the Great Depression.

Let us see if our hypothesis is true.

The US labour force participation rate hit 67% in 2000. Now it’s down to below 62%. That’s about seven million more zombies right there.

This year, there are about 260 million adults in the US. But, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 151 million are ‘employed’. That leaves 109 million zombies.

An important nuance: There is nothing wrong, morally, with being a zombie. Old people. Sick people. Children. Prisoners. Malingerers…lazy bums…and crypto day traders.

Zombies are not necessarily good or bad. But they must eat. And since they do not produce, they must eat what others produce.

We hasten to let ourselves…and many dear readers off the hook…adding that a retired person, living off his own accumulated savings, is not a zombie at all. He earned the money…and merely delayed spending it.

But that kind of fine tuning of our Zombie Index will have to wait for someone with more than half an hour to think about it.

Grossissimo modo, our Zombie Index tells us what percentage of the population is producing wealth…and what part is consuming it. Generally, (this is in no way to be confused with science) the more zombies you have…the lower the wealth of the society.

Government zombies

But wait…

What about all the people employed by the government? Some, such as firefighters and teachers, do useful work that we would gladly pay for.

Most do not.

Optimistically, let us say that 80% of government employees are ‘zombies’. In 2020, there were about 22.5 million on state, local, and federal government payrolls.

So we take 80% of these ‘employed’ people — about 18 million — and move them over to the zombie side of the street.

It should be added that there are millions more who are honestly employed in the private sector…but who still do zombie work. Accountants preparing tax returns, lawyers…lobbyists…diversity commissars…and millions of others…do not really add to our wealth. But that calculation is far beyond the scope of this little reverie.

So is the fact that many people — in and out of government — not only fail to add to output, they actively try to reduce it…by imposing regulations, paperwork, skullduggery, and claptrappery — such as the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rates.

As they say in France…‘Half the population works; the other half tries to stop them.’

Final tally

So, putting the numbers together…out of 332 million people in the US, approximately 199 million (109 million unemployed plus 18 million ‘zombie’ government employees plus 72 million non-adults = 199 million) — 60% of all Americans — are zombified.

To these simple numbers we add another important measure.

In 2000, state, local, and federal governments together — the biggest source of zombieism — spent an amount equal to 34% of GDP, or about one out of every three dollars.

Today, the number is 44%. That represents a huge gain for the zombies. And it completes our Zombie Index as follows…

We add the two ratios together — 60% and 44% — and divide by two, giving us our final Zombie Index reading of 52%…or just over the halfway mark.

The French are right! Half the people work, the other half get in their way.

For reference, the Zombie Index for the year 2000 would have been about 45%, which confirms our impression: The zombies are multiplying.

Regards,

Bill Bonner,
For The Rum Rebellion