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HomeLister CEO Lindsay McLean points out that despite a slowdown in the housing market, supply remains constrained and deals are still happening for homes that are priced right. "Don't let emotions guide your pricing decision," McLean writes.
Sellers are turning to buydown incentives as a way to address buyer hesitation due to high interest rates. Buyers, meanwhile, are motivated to pursue adjustable rate mortgages in the current market.
Lawmakers and others have blamed institutional investors for rising rents and home costs, but this group represents only a small fraction of the housing market. Data shows that a shortage of housing is still the main driver of higher prices.
"The housing market certainly is in a recession," says Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. "It won't be long before we see a national decline, and the national decline next year could easily be 10-15% without breaking a sweat," says Swonk, who previously indicated that the housing market could offer the first sign of a broader recession.
An anticipated healthier economy a year from now suggests lumber is gearing up for a price surge, as lumber tends to lead a housing turnaround, Shawn Hackett of Hackett Advisors says. Reduced wood supply stemming from the continuing Russia-Ukraine war and related sanctions also could contribute to higher prices, but this all hinges on the Federal Reserve not over-correcting with interest rate increases, investment journalist Simon Constable writes.
Prefabricated construction is gaining momentum in the apartment market amid rising interest rates, higher costs for certain materials and supply chain disruptions. Data also shows growing demand for manufactured homes, with shipments rising 31% as of May compared with the same period in 2020, according to the Census Bureau.
Interest rates could be "well above" 4% by the end of December, says Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, who notes that the Fed is "going to keep raising rates for a while." Separately, Governor Lisa Cook notes that achieving the Fed's mission "likely will require ongoing rate hikes and then keeping policy restrictive for some time."
The National Association of REALTORS® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. REALTOR® Magazine is the official magazine of NAR, bringing expert insight to real estate trends, tools, and business strategies.
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